Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change

(+) Yeah! (+)

Nevada poll:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228362142115647488

Sanders 25
Biden 18%
Warren 13%
Steyer 11%
Buttigieg 10%
Klobuchar 10%

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Looks like a situation where Biden could really take advantage of the Culinary endorsement if it had happened

He apparently told his donors that he expected to be top two in NV and win SC, so hopefully he actually is doing at least that well.

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So if no one but Bernie is viable in a district he just wins it I guess

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It's a caucus so if people are nonviable they'll realign

...which I wasn't thinking about; that could help Biden here like it hurt him/helped Pete in Iowa.

(Nonviable candidates can also combine to form viable groups if it works the same as Iowa; if Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar are all slightly under 15 in round 1 they don't have to automatically surrender to Bernie)

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I like seeing a poll with buttigieg getting beat by Tom Steyer
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https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/483119-doj-wont-charge-former-fbi-deputy-director-andrew-mccabe

huh it's almost like the charges were made up to make Trump happy or something

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FFDragon posted...

https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/483119-doj-wont-charge-former-fbi-deputy-director-andrew-mccabe

huh it's almost like the charges were made up to make Trump happy or something

Trump also fired McCabe iirc literally a day before his pension would kick in

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Suprak the Stud posted...

If Sanders has 30% of delegates, Biden has 25%, Buttigieg has 20%, and Klobuchar has 20%, then what even is fair? It is very clear the boring moderate lane got the most votes and their voters just split on the exact choice. Sanders might have a slight overall lead but the goal isnt to have a slight overall lead but to get the majority of delegates.

I dont buy this position at all when Biden voters second choice is Bernie.

Its impossible to say someone who voted for Buttigieg would be just as happy with Klobuchar, so to group all three of them against Bernie is as silly as that news graphic showing Bernie running against the three of them.


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https://twitter.com/asharangappa_/status/1228148013190860800?s=21

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Yeah I'm not going to get too deep into STATS but the whole 'its Bernie versus the moderates! They all overlap entirely!' narrative is false. That's not how LFF works. If the scorecard is Bernie 35, X 30, Y 25, then Bernie would beat either of them 1 v 1.

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Hey hey hey

Bloomberg 27%
Biden 26%

Florida

Next highest is like 11% or some crap.

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Where is Gmun to post his stupid Mario party ownage clip for avernatti now that he has been found guilty on all counts in the Nike extortion trial.

https://twitter.com/PPVSRB/status/1228396364930965504?s=20


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https://mobile.twitter.com/ColinBrowning14/status/1227906931450425344

Loooooool

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As a Bernie fan I am not worried about any polling after super tuesday states yet

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https://twitter.com/justinamash/status/1228323191048806400

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WOW what a total coincidence that the second case Bill Barr has had prosecutors reconsider also broke the law on behalf of Trump! What are the odds??

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1228386730132279302

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LordoftheMorons posted...

WOW what a total coincidence that the second case Bill Barr has had prosecutors reconsider also broke the law on behalf of Trump! What are the odds??

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1228386730132279302

Flynn's case has been known to be irregular for months now. They withdrew his cooperation credit. Flynn withdrew his guilty plea. Etc. Etc.

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Post-NH South Carolina poll: Bidens lead has shrunk, but is still significant:

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1228414728013217798?s=21

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Corrik7 posted...

Flynn's case has been known to be irregular for months now. They withdrew his cooperation credit. Flynn withdrew his guilty plea. Etc. Etc.

Have you ever heard of another case where a defendant has withdrawn a guilty plea after failing to be as cooperative as they agreed to be and then had the DA respond by saying maybe we should reconsider this?

Im pretty certain thats not a thing that typically happens

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alright guys screw arguing over delegate distributions, let's hear it for the Condorcet winner

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228387915807498241?s=19

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Have you ever heard of another case where a defendant has withdrawn a guilty plea after failing to be as cooperative as they agreed to be and then had the DA respond by saying maybe we should reconsider this?

Im pretty certain thats not a thing that typically happens

He said it needed to be re-examined.

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Wow these comments from the judge in the McCabe case:

https://twitter.com/natashabertrand/status/1228419508546785287?s=21

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KamikazePotato posted...

https://mobile.twitter.com/ColinBrowning14/status/1227906931450425344

Loooooool

We are in the transition period, so nothing has changed yet regarding airports, see: https://mobile.twitter.com/schiphol/status/1228322373914497024?s=21. Whatever that queue is it was probably unrelated. It is possible that the nothing might change too, we do not know. Just another thing the government needs to negotiate between March and October! That will go well.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

alright guys screw arguing over delegate distributions, let's hear it for the Condorcet winner

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228387915807498241?s=19

Do we know anything about whether this pollster is typically good or bad for Sanders?

In any case, it seems like a pretty strong indication that Biden is the candidate moderates should coalesce around...! (Or Warren if they think shes significantly preferable to Bernie I guess?)

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Some very good news: the DC Circuit finds 3-0 that Trumps waivers to allow states to implement work requirements for Medicaid are unconstitutional:

https://twitter.com/cmseeberger/status/1228353508535144448?s=21

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538 now has "no majority" as the most likely outcome (2 in 5 vs 1 in 3 for Bernie)

nicholson.gif

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I dont know why they have changed so much since the last vote lol.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I dont know why they have changed so much since the last vote lol.

I would guess its because of polls showing a smaller than expected boost for Bernie

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I think the primary reason is Sanders did not win NH as much as 538 was projecting him to win. That feeds into future projections. If he does really well in California and Texas he should jump back up again.

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Which is weird as I have been very happy with them

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It's really difficult in general to win a majority when a field is this big! Sanders is still the clear favorite to win a plurality.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Which is weird as I have been very happy with them

Well, the 538 model assumed a huge boost for Sanders after Iowa (iirc it literally had him favored to win every single state), so theres a lot of room for him to have gotten a decent boost with 538 still having overshot.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

In any case, it seems like a pretty strong indication that Biden is the candidate moderates should coalesce around...! (Or Warren if they think shes significantly preferable to Bernie I guess?

Be honest, at this point do you really think Biden can beat Trump?

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Well, the 538 model assumed a huge boost for Sanders after Iowa (iirc it literally had him favored to win every single state), so theres a lot of room for him to have gotten a decent boost with 538 still having overshot.

Yeah Bernie literally winning Iowa but it being given to Buttigieg really fucked up the momentum, I agree.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Be honest, at this point do you really think Biden can beat Trump?

I think every candidate except Pete and Bloomberg is the favorite against Trump.

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Oh and Steyer. Forgot he exists.

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KamikazePotato posted...

I think every candidate except Pete and Bloomberg is the favorite against Trump.

Depends which polling outfit you are looking at polls from.

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I think any of the candidates CAN beat Trump but I dont think any of them WILL beat Trump
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Be honest, at this point do you really think Biden can beat Trump?

Yes

I think most of Bidens lost support has been from people losing confidence in the idea of him being the most electable, but I dont think anything hes done would have caused many people to change their mind about their vote for him in the general. The essence of the broad Biden pitch is this: get Trump the fuck out of there and return things to normal. If you hate Trump, theres very little reason not to vote for Biden.

Of course, it could be that Sanders is right and a crucial portion of the potential Dem electorate needs to be excited beyond just having the opportunity to remove the worst president in the history of the country. I dont believe that thats the case, but maybe!

(Or worst of all both cases could be right and youre either gonna turn off moderates with Sanders and fail to inspire the left with Biden and were just totally fucked...!)

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No one WILL beat Trump 100%. Given the hyper-partisan nature of the US, no election is ever guaranteed.

But let's not act like Trump is a strong candidate. He polls poorly by every metric. Jusy because someone got lucky once doesnt mean they'll get lucky twice.

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I dont think any are a favorite to beat Trump.

To put it another way: I am quite confident that Biden minimizes Trumps vote. Its possible he doesnt maximize the Dem vote.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

The essence of the broad Biden pitch is this: get Trump the fuck out of there and return things to normal.

At the risk of sounding preachy, I think you - as someone who openly thinks the US is the greatest country in the world - fundamentally misunderstand a large portion of the American voterbase with this logic. For a lot of people, the pro-Trump normal was still bad.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

To put it another way: I am quite confident that Biden minimizes Trumps vote. Its possible he doesnt maximize the Dem vote.

If Biden is minimizing Trump's vote, do you think he's stealing Rs over or getting less antivoted or what?

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KamikazePotato posted...

At the risk of sounding preachy, I think you - as someone who openly thinks the US is the greatest country in the world - fundamentally misunderstand a large portion of the American voterbase with this logic. For a lot of people, the pro-Trump normal was still bad.

Yeah, Ill continue the sermon:

I mean the argument Trump put forward was Make America Great Again, and a sizeable portion of the response was America was never great (insert implied for me here for people who might scoff).

Telling them hey lets get things back to normal is not a compelling argument for anyone but the Center.

The right/far right might say they find Trump uncouth, but he has like a 95% approval rating among Republicans, so even if they say they want Biden (like Seph), theres 100% chance theyre voting for Trump anyway.

The left/far left may find Trump abhorrent, but they dont trust people who see them struggling and go guys lets go back to how it was 4 years ago.

Reason A) how it was 4 years ago wasnt good for them, reason B) 4 years ago directly led to the rise of Trumpism!

tl;dr for example every time a Democrat even mentions theyre EVEN considering Bloomberg, theyre basically saying yeah everything is totally fine, I just dont like how Trump stupidly calls attention to all our warts

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Bloomberg is the only candidate I will not vote for. He is not blue. Dude is just a rich republican

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There is a sizable portion of the electorate that likes this economy but dislikes Trump's behaviour.

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KamikazePotato posted...

At the risk of sounding preachy, I think you - as someone who openly thinks the US is the greatest country in the world - fundamentally misunderstand a large portion of the American voterbase with this logic. For a lot of people, the pro-Trump normal was still bad.

I dont think the US doesnt have a ton of problems!

Return to normal is also a simplification; he still does have plans that I dont think can be fairly classified as small (e.g. the public option, addressing global warming, etc). He is, of course, not promising revolutionary change, something that some people are explicitly looking for and which some people are absolutely not willing to vote for. What he is offering, though, is something that should be strictly better than what Trump is offering for the left. Hes going to stop us from locking kids in cages. Hes going to remove the Muslim ban. Hes going to reverse Trumps assault on the ACA and expand coverage. For some voters, merely doing those things might not be enough of a difference to get their vote, but I dont think there are a ton of those people and frankly they suck if theyre willing to let so much cruelty continue because they insist on rejecting better because its not what they view as perfect.

(To be clear, I dont fault these voters for supporting whoever they want to in the primary, just if they stay home in the general).

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TheRock1525 posted...

There is a sizable portion of the electorate that likes this economy but dislikes Trump's behaviour.

We are going to find out how sizable because the economy isn't that great.

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If Obama were white or Hillary was male 2016 never happens.

The appeal of Biden will always be voter suppression on the R side. He is an older white male like all of them so they won't fear him becoming president.