Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change

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DoomTheGyarados
02/14/20 5:24:17 PM
#201:


Unfortunately biden doesnt really want to be president.

I firmly believe this

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LordoftheMorons
02/14/20 5:25:33 PM
#202:


HeroDelTiempo17 posted...
If Biden is minimizing Trump's vote, do you think he's stealing Rs over or getting less antivoted or what?
I think theres a decent sized chunk of voters (probably like 5-10% of the electorate at a guess, but I dont really know) that strongly dislike Trump but who think that Sanders will wreck the economy or whatever and arent willing to take a perceived personal risk in order to address all of the problems with Trump that they see but dont think affect them personally.

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Leafeon13N
02/14/20 5:25:35 PM
#203:


I suppose i also again have to throw in hes also not gay or Jewish because our country is actually horrible.
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ChaosTonyV4
02/14/20 5:25:44 PM
#204:


TheRock1525 posted...
There is a sizable portion of the electorate that likes this economy but dislikes Trump's behaviour.

Thats exactly what I said, and these people will vote for Trump no matter who the Dems nominate.

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DoomTheGyarados
02/14/20 5:26:55 PM
#205:


I mean the great thing is fox news spent Obama years calling everyone a socialist so yeah!

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LordoftheMorons
02/14/20 5:32:26 PM
#206:


LordoftheMorons posted...
It's a caucus so if people are nonviable they'll realign

...which I wasn't thinking about; that could help Biden here like it hurt him/helped Pete in Iowa.

(Nonviable candidates can also combine to form viable groups if it works the same as Iowa; if Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar are all slightly under 15 in round 1 they don't have to automatically surrender to Bernie)
So in some bad news for Biden/good new for Bernie if that poll is roughly right, apparently you cant do this in the NV caucus; candidates below 15 in a district are eliminated.

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TheRock1525
02/14/20 5:34:16 PM
#207:


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Thats exactly what I said, and these people will vote for Trump no matter who the Dems nominate.
Not true, considering 63% approve of the economic right now. Unless you believe Trump is gonna get 63% of the vote.

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Reg
02/14/20 5:37:59 PM
#208:


Reminder that the economy, even if you're an idiot that just defines it in terms of the stock market, is being propped up by way of all the levers we're supposed to be using to stem the bleeding and minimize the damage caused by the inevitable downturn.
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ChaosTonyV4
02/14/20 5:39:59 PM
#209:


TheRock1525 posted...
Not true, considering 63% approve of the economic right now. Unless you believe Trump is gonna get 63% of the vote.

If were talking people who would ever vote Republican, yes, Im certain hes going to get more than that regardless of the Dem nominee.

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ChaosTonyV4
02/14/20 5:42:06 PM
#210:


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/14/de-blasio-to-endorse-sanders-115138

...huh

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xp1337
02/14/20 5:51:49 PM
#211:


Is that really surprising? During his brief tenure in the debates, de Blasio was aggressively pushing the same kind of message as Sanders/Warren. like a more in-your-face steyer.

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LordoftheMorons
02/14/20 5:53:12 PM
#212:


Interesting:

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1228449705224482817?s=21

This is a thing that makes sense but has adverse effects because the 538 model feeds back into influencing actual opinion at this point. (Not sure how to address this, but its a real problem; in a much bigger and less subtle example, people didnt understand in 2016 that things with a 30% chance of happening often happen, which could very well have depressed turnout from lukewarm potential Clinton voters who thought she was guaranteed to win).

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xp1337
02/14/20 5:54:50 PM
#213:


LordoftheMorons posted...
people didnt understand in 2016 that things with a 30% chance of happening often happen
someone needs a campaign message of requiring a mandatory playing of fire emblem to instill the fear of probability into everyone

you won't see people writing off 1% odds when they've been on the receiving end of a game-ending 1% crit let me tell you

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Corrik7
02/14/20 5:56:56 PM
#214:


LordoftheMorons posted...
Interesting:

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1228449705224482817?s=21

This is a thing that makes sense but has adverse effects because the 538 model feeds back into influencing actual opinion at this point. (Not sure how to address this, but its a real problem; in a much bigger and less subtle example, people didnt understand in 2016 that things with a 30% chance of happening often happen, which could very well have depressed turnout from lukewarm potential Clinton voters who thought she was guaranteed to win).
Biden has a 20% chance of dropping out before SC? What? Lol

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Corrik7
02/14/20 5:58:50 PM
#215:


xp1337 posted...
someone needs a campaign message of requiring a mandatory playing of fire emblem to instill the fear of probability into everyone

you won't see people writing off 1% odds when they've been on the receiving end of a game-ending 1% crit let me tell you
Putting out %s like that as a prognosticator is basically pointless though. Then you can never be wrong then.

Like, TheRock says well 538 had the best prediction for the 2018 midterms. Yes, but if they didn't that's okay because they had a % chance for any scenario anyways so it was just the % chance of a time! Can never be wrong.

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LordoftheMorons
02/14/20 5:59:26 PM
#216:


Corrik7 posted...
Biden has a 20% chance of dropping out before SC? What? Lol
Yeah I think that number is definitely wrong, but it in general makes sense for the model to account for people dropping out (I cant see any way Biden drops out before SC. Possible he could afterwards if he loses, but if its your best early state why wouldnt you see it through even if NV went terribly?)

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xp1337
02/14/20 6:00:49 PM
#217:


Dropping about before SC could almost make sense if not for the fact that it's literally 3 days after. If Biden had another embarrasingly bad finish in NV and there was a whole week... I still don't think he drops out but I'd be more accepting of it as a fringe outlier scenario.

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LordoftheMorons
02/14/20 6:02:32 PM
#218:


Corrik7 posted...
Putting out %s like that as a prognosticator is basically pointless though. Then you can never be wrong then.

Like, TheRock says well 538 had the best prediction for the 2018 midterms. Yes, but if they didn't that's okay because they had a % chance for any scenario anyways so it was just the % chance of a time! Can never be wrong.
No, you just cant determine if theyre wrong based off of one election. If you analyze a bunch of elections they forecast you can see if their models were likely to be correct. They actually had an article analyzing this at one point with all of their state by state predictions, senate races, etc, and they did pretty well.

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KamikazePotato
02/14/20 6:04:24 PM
#219:


LordoftheMorons posted...
people didnt understand in 2016 that things with a 30% chance of happening often happen,
I tried explaining this to someone back then and they literally could not comprehend it

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Suprak the Stud
02/14/20 6:05:04 PM
#220:


Corrik7 posted...
Putting out %s like that as a prognosticator is basically pointless though. Then you can never be wrong then.

Like, TheRock says well 538 had the best prediction for the 2018 midterms. Yes, but if they didn't that's okay because they had a % chance for any scenario anyways so it was just the % chance of a time! Can never be wrong.

I have to admit, I am always surprised that you never seem to understand what 538 is doing no matter how often people try to explain it to you!


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Jakyl25
02/14/20 6:05:27 PM
#221:


Corrik7 posted...

Putting out %s like that as a prognosticator is basically pointless though. Then you can never be wrong then.

Like, TheRock says well 538 had the best prediction for the 2018 midterms. Yes, but if they didn't that's okay because they had a % chance for any scenario anyways so it was just the % chance of a time! Can never be wrong.


This is just a strange criticism of the entire concept of statistics
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Jakyl25
02/14/20 6:06:42 PM
#222:


Suprak the Stud posted...


I have to admit, I am always surprised that you never seem to understand what 538 is doing no matter how often people try to explain it to you!



I wonder if Corrik is one of those people that cant understand the Monty Hall problem
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Suprak the Stud
02/14/20 6:07:02 PM
#223:


xp1337 posted...
Dropping about before SC could almost make sense if not for the fact that it's literally 3 days after. If Biden had another embarrasingly bad finish in NV and there was a whole week... I still don't think he drops out but I'd be more accepting of it as a fringe outlier scenario.

^

Yeah, even if Biden finishes at like 8% again, why would he ever drop out? He's already spent all the money on ads, traveled the state, etc. It would be insane to me for him to go, "nah I don't want to wait until Tuesday".

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Moops?
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ChaosTonyV4
02/14/20 6:07:14 PM
#224:


Its pointless to determine the chance of something happening, just say if it will!

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Corrik7
02/14/20 6:07:15 PM
#225:


Suprak the Stud posted...
I have to admit, I am always surprised that you never seem to understand what 538 is doing no matter how often people try to explain it to you!
It isn't a matter of understanding. It is just that it is pointless.

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LordoftheMorons
02/14/20 6:07:30 PM
#226:


Jakyl25 posted...
This is just a strange criticism of the entire concept of statistics
Good news for everyone worrying about AI: if statistics is useless, so is machine learning...!

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ChaosTonyV4
02/14/20 6:09:46 PM
#227:


Corrik7 posted...
It isn't a matter of understanding. It is just that it is pointless.

What method would be better/have a point?

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Phantom Dust.
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Reg
02/14/20 6:11:50 PM
#228:


Corrik has repeatedly demonstrated that he is unwilling to learn basic concepts related to statistics, I don't know why anybody is surprised by this
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Corrik7
02/14/20 6:16:28 PM
#229:


I understand the point of it. It's to find the likeliest outcome and to identify other likely outcomes.

But, it seems negligent that any time the outcome isn't your likeliest outcome (or a significantly high outcome) to just handwave it away as well, that was always a possibility tho an unlikely one.

At the end of the day, Nate should be judged on whether his likeliest outcome (or likeliest if similar odds ones exist) come to fruition.

It shouldn't be well the outcome was just unlikely, as you can see. The outcome if such an outlier happens to your model should be that you were wrong in your model and finding out where you went wrong. Not just being like, well, only 1 time in a 100 would that happen.

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LordoftheMorons
02/14/20 6:19:23 PM
#230:


Corrik7 posted...
I understand the point of it. It's to find the likeliest outcome and to identify other likely outcomes.

But, it seems negligent that any time the outcome isn't your likeliest outcome (or a significantly high outcome) to just handwave it away as well, that was always a possibility tho an unlikely one.

At the end of the day, Nate should be judged on whether his likeliest outcome (or likeliest if similar odds ones exist) come to fruition.

It shouldn't be well the outcome was just unlikely, as you can see. The outcome if such an outlier happens to your model should be that you were wrong in your model and finding out where you went wrong. Not just being like, well, only 1 time in a 100 would that happen.
No, if he claims 100 races are 70/30, he should be judged on whether the 70 candidates won roughly 70 of those races. If they won 95 or 50 of them, his model was likely wrong.

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xp1337
02/14/20 6:20:11 PM
#231:


do you have any examples to point to of 538 being egregiously wrong?

Remember that in 2016 they were mocked for giving Trump odds as high as they did such that they were the outlier. A 30% chance hitting isn't some awful miss. That's more tame than flipping a coin and getting heads twice in a row. You had models back then giving Clinton 99% (and I'll own up to having believed them at the time)

In 2018 the likeliest probability for House seats was a 39 Dem pickup. They got 40.

If you're judging on whether his likeliest options are coming through I think his model speaks for itself there that it is the best in the business.

And LotM is right how you should be evaluating his model but even by your own criteria I think he passes?

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Corrik7
02/14/20 6:22:47 PM
#232:


LordoftheMorons posted...
No, if he claims 100 races are 70/30, he should be judged on whether the 70 candidates won roughly 70 of those races. If they won 95 or 50 of them, his model was likely wrong.
They all have different moving parts. Sometimes without even polling.

His model is based on historic polling, current polling, historic population, and historic voting trends basically.

Also, this doesn't even apply to the presidency. There is exactly one election. Every 4 years the same model is not going to apply directly.

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Jakyl25
02/14/20 6:23:32 PM
#233:


Corrik7 posted...

At the end of the day, Nate should be judged on whether his likeliest outcome (or likeliest if similar odds ones exist) come to fruition.


Wow

Wow
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Corrik7
02/14/20 6:24:47 PM
#234:


xp1337 posted...
do you have any examples to point to of 538 being egregiously wrong?

Remember that in 2016 they were mocked for giving Trump odds as high as they did such that they were the outlier. A 30% chance hitting isn't some awful miss. That's more tame than flipping a coin and getting heads twice in a row. You had models back then giving Clinton 99% (and I'll own up to having believed them at the time)

In 2018 the likeliest probability for House seats was a 39 Dem pickup. They got 40.

If you're judging on whether his likeliest options are coming through I think his model speaks for itself there that it is the best in the business.

And LotM is right how you should be evaluating his model but even by your own criteria I think he passes?
I defended the 538 model in 2016. I thought it would be wrong in 2018, and it was relatively right. I am saying that if it hits a 1% odd and the result is to say well that only happens once in a hundred times, the model is still right though. Instead of that the model was just not properly figured out then that is pointless as a predictor.

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Jakyl25
02/14/20 6:29:06 PM
#235:


Do you not believe that something with a 1% chance of happening can happen one time out of a hundred?
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TheRock1525
02/14/20 6:29:38 PM
#236:


I have no idea what you're saying in these rambling incoherent messes you're trying to pass off as an argument.

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DoomTheGyarados
02/14/20 6:29:51 PM
#237:


You can always tell who doesn't play pokemon.

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HeroDelTiempo17
02/14/20 6:31:55 PM
#238:


Corrik7 posted...
Also, this doesn't even apply to the presidency. There is exactly one election. Every 4 years the same model is not going to apply directly.

Yeah, that's the point. You've discovered the law of large numbers! It doesn't mean the model itself is bad, it means that since we only have ONE presidential election you can't verify the results on a large scale. But we can point to those other election models to show that 538's analysis is fairly reliable.

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Corrik7
02/14/20 6:34:14 PM
#239:


Jakyl25 posted...
Do you not believe that something with a 1% chance of happening can happen one time out of a hundred?
I believe that in an election that with all the data presented that if a 1% outcome happened that your model has failed, and it is more important to find out why it failed.

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Jakyl25
02/14/20 6:36:29 PM
#240:


Corrik7 posted...

I believe that in an election that with all the data presented that if a 1% outcome happened that your model has failed, and it is more important to find out why it failed.


Why do you believe this?
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TheRock1525
02/14/20 6:38:27 PM
#241:


DoomTheGyarados posted...
You can always tell who doesn't play pokemon.
or Fire Emblem.

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xp1337
02/14/20 6:39:08 PM
#242:


Jakyl25 posted...


Why do you believe this?
because my fire emblem policy has yet to be adopted

he'll change his tune when he realizes "your mechanics system failed, and it is important to find out why it failed" doesn't work when some jerk pirate lands a 1% crit on eliwood forcing you to restart the map and ruining your phenomenal level-ups the rest of the mission

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Corrik7
02/14/20 6:39:55 PM
#243:


Jakyl25 posted...
Why do you believe this?
Because the 1% outcome is basically a sign your model was wrong and that you predicted it so wrong that a very insignificantly possible outcome happened.

Like, for example, if he says yadda yadda Bernie will win California. 99.99% Bernie. .01% Trump. Then Trump wins.

I don't think the result should be to say "well that only happens one time in ten thousand". It should be "how did I analyze this so wrong to get this so wrong".

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Corrik7
02/14/20 6:41:21 PM
#244:


xp1337 posted...
because my fire emblem policy has yet to be adopted

he'll change his tune when he realizes "your mechanics system failed, and it is important to find out why it failed" doesn't work when some jerk pirate lands a 1% crit on eliwood forcing you to restart the map and ruining your phenomenal level-ups the rest of the mission
I am pretty sure some RPGs had some bullshit with their %s also lol. Sometimes the outcome seemed wayyyy too convenient!

Still salty that Baron rivendares mount never dropped for me in over 11k runs.

Extremely salty.

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ChaosTonyV4
02/14/20 6:41:25 PM
#245:


Corrik7 posted...
Because the 1% outcome is basically a sign your model was wrong and that you predicted it so wrong that a very insignificantly possible outcome happened.

Like, for example, if he says yadda yadda Bernie will win California. 99.99% Bernie. .01% Trump. Then Trump wins.

I don't think the result should be to say "well that only happens one time in ten thousand". It should be "how did I analyze this so wrong to get this so wrong".


ChaosTonyV4 posted...
Its pointless to determine the chance of something happening, just say if it will!

I was joking but this is literally what Corrik wants.


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KamikazePotato
02/14/20 6:41:52 PM
#246:


xp1337 posted...
You had models back then giving Clinton 99% (and I'll own up to having believed them at the time)

One of the websites that gave Clinton 99% posted an article pre-election that bashed Nate Silver, saying he was inconsistent for doing things like 'not sticking to one prediction forever' and 'updating projections over time'. Nate got really upset at them over social media, then started making fun of them once Trump won. They proceeded to post an ENTIRE SALT-FILLED ARTICLE about how much of big dumb meanie Nate Silver was.

Was the only part of that entire part of history that made me smile.

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NFUN
02/14/20 6:44:17 PM
#247:


There was some book or story or some other piece of media where "counterfactual" was kind of an arc phrase. I seem to remember people saying a few times something along the lines of "We don't have any counterfactuals". I have no idea what it was. Does this ring a bell for anybody?

finding this story is probably a better use of energy than having this debate

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Jakyl25
02/14/20 6:44:54 PM
#248:


Nate Silver is kind of a big dumb meanie

But hes good at statistical models
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xp1337
02/14/20 6:45:12 PM
#249:


Corrik7 posted...
I am pretty sure some RPGs had some bullshit with their %s also lol. Sometimes the outcome seemed wayyyy too convenient!
Fire Emblem 7 (which my example is using there with the eliwood mention) actually does some BS with its RNG (it's rolls two dice and takes the average which alters the actual probabilities such that the hit chance it shows you isn't the real chance) but it's honest on crits!

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TheRock1525
02/14/20 6:46:32 PM
#250:


So when a predictive model said the Atlanta Falcons had a 99% chance of winning when they went up 28-3 and ultimately lost, does that mean the model was broken?

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