Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 266: Round 2 - The Discord in Concord

(+) Yeah! (+)

Nelson_Mandela posted...

I don't know how you can think the Democrats actually want Bernie after this. The "centrist bloc" has a clear majority and he's only at 25%...

I mean, wouldnt you say the same about 2016 Trump and the other candidates?
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Also I think Pete is the only candidate (okay Pete and Tulsi) that will make me not vote Dem, but third party again.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

I don't know how you can think the Democrats actually want Bernie after this. The "centrist bloc" has a clear majority and he's only at 25%...

While I'm not sure, I think the assumption is that if Bernie wins, the moderate voters are more likely to fall in line than the ones who support Bernie. The ones who support Bernie are more likely to vote third party or stay home if their guy doesn't win.

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FFDragon posted...

Also I think Pete is the only candidate (okay Pete and Tulsi) that will make me not vote Dem, but third party again.

FFD we've got 2 80+ year old liberal supreme court justices and a 70+ year old conservative one who could be made to retire gracefully under a republican president. You are voting blue no matter who <_<.

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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1227421423934812160?s=19

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

You are voting blue no matter who <_<.

MD is voting blue with or without me tbqh

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Jakyl25 posted...

I mean, wouldnt you say the same about 2016 Trump and the other candidates?

Democrats aren't Republicans

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https://mobile.twitter.com/SamSacks/status/1227264879150731265

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I truly see Bernie being having the weakest base of any presidential candidate since Mondale. If Trump were anyone but Trump, I'd expect a 40+ state landslide victory.

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If I can vote for Sanders, you can vote for Pete...!

(The thought of voting for Tulsi makes me vomit but I'd do even that against Trump)

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KamikazePotato posted...

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamSacks/status/1227264879150731265

They arent wrong. Klobuchar definitely has the most to gain from these results.

Biden/Warren are big losers and this pretty much was just an affirmation of where Bernie/Buttigieg are right now.

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As someone who wants the moderate lane to split the vote: Thanks Klob <3

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I just think whoever programmed Rubio in 2016 made slight graphics update and pushed out the 1.1.a in Pete.

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i've said it before but yes, bernie is following the same pattern trump had, only he's a weaker candidate who's fortunate that he's on a field that's has multiple at similar levels.

and this is before we hit bloomberg, which is something trump didn't. without bloomberg in the race i'd give him a legit shot to win it but with him it means it'll be rare for anyone to break 30% and that centrist bloc will come out on top in a brokered convention. that's a guaranteed 10-15% anywhere he's campaigning at minimum, everybody else can fight for the rest. 300 mil gets you 3rd place.

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Tbh most Dartmouth students would be better off financially with Pete rather than Bernie. They'll make good money when they graduate and Bernie will tax them.

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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1227443066526687233

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FFDragon posted...

I just think whoever programmed Rubio in 2016 made slight graphics update and pushed out the 1.1.a in Pete.

"Let's make him white."
"Sir, he's running for the Democrats."
"...alright, gay too. We weren't sure last time around anyway. What else?"
"Maybe make him sound like Obama?"
"A white gay guy sounding like a black guy who sounded like a white guy? Perfect."

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KamikazePotato posted...

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1227443066526687233

Yeah see this why I don't understand why Biden's heading straight to SC instead of trying to compete in NV.

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I can only guess an internal poll made him sad.

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Maybe he feels like SC is slipping away and he NEEDS to fight hard to keep it
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There's been like no NV polling for about a month, but Pete was a lot weaker there than in IA/NH and Amy was in the lower single digits. I think he could still potentially do well there (though perhaps not win) if he got his shit together.

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Polling in NV is a pain. IIRC they have state laws that basically preclude how almost all outfits conduct them so you rarely see it done.

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Jakyl25 posted...

Maybe he feels like SC is slipping away and he NEEDS to fight hard to keep it

I did see WaPo reporting that SC Biden allies, while not necessarily worried about him losing, are worried about him underperforming (in particular Steyer is dumping tons of money into ads there and will probably cut into Biden's margins).

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We've now passed 2016 turnout in NH with 20% of precincts still out (NYT thinks 85% of votes are in)

Also the NYT has called NH for Sanders.

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Does Trump carry New Hampshire over Biden if Biden wins the nom? He literally fled the state.

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Suprak the Stud posted...

22% in now!

Sanders - 27.7%
Buttigieg - 23%
Klobuchar - 20.5%
Warren - 9.5%
Biden - 8.7%

The "moderate" lane is going to be unbelievably crowded on Super Tuesday if Klobuchar is doing this well. You're looking at Biden/Bloomberg/Buttigieg/Klobuchar all going aginst Sanders and an anemic Warren at this point.

Warren should drop out after this showing

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Corrik7 posted...

Does Trump carry New Hampshire over Biden if Biden wins the nom? He literally fled the state.

Yes. He only lost to Hillary by 3000 votes.

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red sox 777 posted...

Yes. He only lost to Hillary by 3000 votes.

I thought New Hampshire would flip before this. But, if Biden is the candidate, I don't see how New Hampshire wouldn't be a lean Republican and not even a toss up at this point.

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Yeah, Warren has no path after this result and that makes me very sad. Because she was the best candidate by far.

but i'm going down with this ship until it is officially sunk

we're on to cincinnati

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Corrik7 posted...

Does Trump carry New Hampshire over Biden if Biden wins the nom? He literally fled the state.

NH doesn't matter, I don't think. It still comes down to WI, PA, and MI. If Trumps wins NH its a blowout. He also lost NH to a wildly unpopular democratic candidate, so I stand by my theory that Trump wins reelection with almost the same map, potentially losing PA depending on who the dems put up.

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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1227451744571002881

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xp1337 posted...

Yeah, Warren has no path after this result and that makes me very sad. Because she was the best candidate by far.

but i'm going down with this ship until it is officially sunk

we're on to cincinnati

I don't think she's likely to come back, but I'm not sure if "she's dead" is true. Essentially no delegates have actually been allocated, and e.g. Amy Klobuchar basically went from non-factor to major factor in the moderate lane clusterfuck pretty much instantly. Basically I think that everybody's massively overestimating how certain things are!
(This is also why I don't think Biden's dead yet, even though things have been going quite badly).

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Biden's not dead, but it's not a great look that his voters seem willing to jump ship at a moment's notice. I guess that describes every non-Bernie candidate though.

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xp1337 posted...

Yeah, Warren has no path after this result and that makes me very sad. Because she was the best candidate by far.

but i'm going down with this ship until it is officially sunk

we're on to cincinnati

This is such an absurdly bad showing, yeah. I think her strategy now is to put all her effort into California, Texas, and Massachusetts on Super Tuesday, hope Biden completely flops, and all the money she pulled in when she was close to front runner status sustains her while Pete and Klobuchar don't have the ground game to compete with her for the long run. Oh and Sanders somehow fails to pull in any additional support from here on out.

If she had even put up 15% or so here, she'd likely be "not really ok but ok enough". These numbers look hopeless though. Biden at least has southern states coming up.

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And Biden will absolutely win NH if he's the nominee.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Biden's not dead, but it's not a great look that his voters seem willing to jump ship at a moment's notice. I guess that describes every non-Bernie candidate though.

That kind of supports the theory that a lot of Biden support was based purely on buying in to his inevitability
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Hillary was not weak in NH. Remember she won NH over Obama.

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Jakyl25 posted...

That kind of supports the theory that a lot of Biden support was based purely on buying in to his inevitability

Ehh I don't think it's quite that. I think a large part of it is voters trying to guess both the most electable general election candidate (here I think Biden still has a very strong argument) and the most likely winner within their preferred "lane" (e.g. if I'm a voter who slightly prefers Biden among the moderates, but would vastly prefer any of them over Sanders, Biden starts dipping and I get scared and jump to Pete even though I didn't actually start liking Biden any less).

(Anecdotally this is basically what I'm getting from my parents, though more of possibly switching to Bloomberg/Klobuchar rather than Pete)

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Who wants to see Chris defend Bernie off and on for 25 minutes?

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LordoftheMorons posted...

And Biden will absolutely win NH if he's the nominee.

I would love to know where the confidence in that is oozing from.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Who wants to see Chris defend Bernie off and on for 25 minutes?

From who?

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Other people on a LGBTQ+ news show lolol

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I'll pass.

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Surprised you don't want to see how I look and talk in REAL TIME

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Does Yang dropping out mean my stipend isn't gonna happen now?

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Surprised you don't want to see how I look and talk in REAL TIME

If you were debating Republicans, maybe.

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Gay people make Corrik uncomfortable, Chris.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Gay people make Corrik uncomfortable, Chris.

Hot twist.

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Corrik7 posted...

If you were debating Republicans, maybe.

There was 1 there

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

There was 1 there

Were they shunned as an apparent Nazi? If not, I'll take a peek.

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