Board 8 > Yu Yu Hakusho Mafia Topic 3: ROSE WHIP!!!

(+) Yeah! (+)

Corrik being town BP seems more likely than you being town whatever you are based on play so far I think. You've played in a way that has actively discouraged town from gaining information. I also don't see Corrik as scum BP feeling necessary to prepare a counter for you. He'd be instantly felled if you flip town and he hadn't had much suspicion.

Now that we have more details Corrik actually being bulletproof makes a lot of sense. We get further into it and it's looking likely that Corrik is indeed bulletproof because he was likely targeted by Sultan who was probably being honest as he was afraid of a real watcher.

What I really want to know is what Lea did last night and whether she's sticking to her claim.
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Thing is if Corrik is town BP, and Mafia almost always get a BP role in return with the flips and then making the Watcher scans legit it really is imbalanced in regards to the SK. Both factions having a role unable to die at night is exceptionally rare in and of itself.

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1. Mafia don't almost always get a BP role. It's a common mafia fakeclaim but not exactly a common mafia role.
2. Why would you assume Lea is legit and that Corrik is bulletproof.
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With an SK they do.

I don't think Lea is legit.

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So let's put aside you thinking Corrik is most likely scum BP.

What do you think Lea is and what do you think Chris is, most likely? What's their thought process in coming about claiming what they did yesterday?
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I havent denied us information at all. The two days were very compacted so I havent had time to go back.

Have no fear, I will review
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Lopen posted...

So let's put aside you thinking Corrik is most likely scum BP.

What do you think Lea is and what do you think Chris is, most likely? What's their thought process in coming about claiming what they did yesterday?

I really don't know. I just have a gut feeling the watch is wack. Lea has straight up guessed shit like this in the past. Like FF8 Mafia and Blue Mage........

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So you think she's town that just made it up to catch Sultan?

And you think Chris, being roleblocked, somehow knew something up with Sultan entirely on a blind shot?

I just want to know how you think they're playing the game as lying town or lying scum or neither.
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Mother fucking stop ending day early.

Red got put into the ground so I'm going to have to be the voice of reason in his stead.

We had a 4~ hour day and a 6~ hour day. That is goddamn ridiculous. People have barely had a chance to make their thoughts known and say... anything.

I have two goals today. My first is to thoroughly review day 2, and my second is to get a particularly strong sense of Red's opinions and push those forward. I don't see a good reason to target him so I have to believe he got silenced for a reason.

.

Oh and crawl out of my ass, Mzero. You look like an idiot.
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Well I think it was made up in general yeah. Don't think it clears Lea either way, but this is PTSD speaking.

Also yeah. I think that route of thought makes sense considering how indignant Sultan was with the role he had.

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greengravy294 posted...

Well I think it was made up in general yeah. Don't think it clears Lea either way, but this is PTSD speaking.

I want a good reason Lea fakes it as town. Do you have one?
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Lopen posted...

I want a good reason Lea fakes it as town. Do you have one?

No. If I had to guess, lea is scum.

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Official Votals as of post 112

(4) Chris: IGCD, Corrik, Lopen, Scare
(2) Corrik: Gravy, Chris
(1) FD: MZero

@ me with any errors

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

So, someone finally a caught a persistent mistake in my votals from day 2 and day 3. None of us (hosts included) noticed I had the math wrong on majority. Fun fact, mathematicians are bad at arithmetic.

At this point nothing to do but continue playing.

So why does she do it as scum, do you figure?
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Town cred. If you think of it logically scum sees 4 people on the team. Assumes sk. The SK is found out by Chris (they didnt RB him so they think UT). So you fake a claim. You hide the second victim, and the next day you claim the second person to visit Chris was in fact red, the Town RB.

And no it doesnt have to be red, just any flipping town power. You just fill in the blanks. Or rather you dont need to.


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I am going far down the rabbit hole I realize but smart scum gambits are ones that have a degree of separation. It is what obfuscates town all so often not having the full story.

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So you think scumteam made the leap that Sultan was likely SK due to Chris claiming roleblocked without actually being roleblocked by them? Isn't that a bit bold? They don't even know he's telling the truth about his claim to begin with. What if Sultan just flips a random town role where is Lea then?

Doesn't that Occulam's Raxor thing you like so much make it more likely that scumteam targeted Sultan themselves with some random role and solved that he was likely SK that way?
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Also scum watcher is a very realistic role, and if Lea actually watched Chris they can assume that the doctor probably visited him night 1.
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Lopen posted...

So you think scumteam made the leap that Sultan was likely SK due to Chris claiming roleblocked without actually being roleblocked by them? Isn't that a bit bold? They don't even know he's telling the truth about his claim to begin with. What if Sultan just flips a random town role where is Lea then?

Doesn't that Occulam's Raxor thing you like so much make it more likely that scumteam targeted Sultan themselves with some random role and solved that he was likely SK that way?

If Chris is scum BP and Red targeted Chris, and Lea is scum watcher boom, they have two people to go after.
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IfGodCouldDie posted...

Also scum watcher is a very realistic role, and if Lea actually watched Chris they can assume that the doctor probably visited him night 1.

So why is the doctor not dead. Think.
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Or if they did target Sultan and got a RB message they can decern something from that. Theory isn't my strong suit but as I think about it, I am comfortable with both Chris and Lea as scum right now.
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The thought that red actually Roleblocked Chris is creeping into my mind.

Night 1 if you blind fire a RB...it would be him if you are town.

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And yes my thinking is bold and probably definitely does not entirely follow Octopath's razor.

Going down the rabbit hole is against the razor too. But my theory feels good.

And now I have doubt in it.

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Lopen posted...

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Also scum watcher is a very realistic role, and if Lea actually watched Chris they can assume that the doctor probably visited him night 1.

So why is the doctor not dead. Think.

Maybe Red was the second person to visit Chris and they thought he was doctor, or they just haven't killed the second person and they did target Sultan and pushed for him to be lynched knowing that he is weak enough to be unable to defend himself.
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Also the red theory does combat why "the doc" isnt dead.

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Which means the Watch itself is legit.

Meaning either Chris got Sultan on actually literally nothing or he is scum.

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Chris, I think most of what I've conveyed actually fits the profile.

I think your role claim should clear things up.

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greengravy294 posted...

Which means the Watch itself is legit.

Meaning either Chris got Sultan on actually literally nothing or he is scum.

They could have targeted him as well, I'm pretty sure in Chris' "be better at mafia topic" he never finished one of the things he talked about was using scans on people you can't read. How do you read a player that hasn't posted. I feel confident that Chris would be able to discern how could have been power from the people that posted.
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Easier theory

1. Scum solves that Sultan is likely SK due to a random night action on him failing. Probably a rolecop or something as you would leave Sultan alive if he's not a power role, so strong rolecop choice.
2. Chris gambits to rid the SK because he knows his lifespan is short anyway after that day 1. Note his initial role could actually plausibly hit an untargetable SK had town just bought the claim. It is almost too convenient in that way.
3. Problem is people don't believe Chris, and further, people are fighting the theory that Chris would be bussing a scummate as well. At that point, if Chris goes down and flips scum, they've got an SK in the game that is going to be super hard to lunch.
4. It's looking like Chris is going to be lynched, leaving a relatively cleared SK to go wild. Scummate Lea goes in and doubles down to get the SK lynched. She expects that Sultan will expect watch and claim to have targeted Chris. And if he's SK and doc protected Chris, this isn't even that weird to consider since only one kill. Open and shut case if he does that.
5. Sultan is crazy and just claims his actual target, which is BP explaining the one kill. Problem here is that now Lea's claim now makes almost no sense, so two are exposed.

So yeah I think both Chris and Lea are scum here.
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greengravy294 posted...

Which means the Watch itself is legit.

Meaning either Chris got Sultan on actually literally nothing or he is scum.

If the watch was red/sultan then that means Chris is scum BP? I could see that. Otherwise Chris would have died from Sultan's shot.

There are a lot of lines and I'm have trouble keeping them all untangled. I think I might make a flow chart
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But the problem is that my theory about Chris being town is wrong

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Of course the funniest thing is if Chris actually is scum BP, and Lea assumed Sultan attempted to murder him because of that as well, not knowing there was a town BP as well.
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There are several things wrong with that. For starters, why should I feel bad about day one? It was fun, and really mafia needs more fun in it. You have posited several times that I have a short lifespan but that's not true at all. I cannot remember a time I have actually been policy lynched - merely it is brought up over and over.

What actually happened is I attempted to target Sultan and was roleblocked. Rather than let the day be boring I faked information for fun. Because fun is fun. Once I am able to go back and re-read day 1 and 2 I am quite certain there is going to be a lot of interesting interactions.
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It seems like Gravy, you and I are generally in agreement that we can ship ChrisxLea.
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I feel like if you target an untargetable you don't actually get the message that you were roleblocked, generally

Am I wrong about that?
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It is an interesting relationship, the master and the student.

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IfGodCouldDie posted...

It seems like Gravy, you and I are generally in agreement that we can ship ChrisxLea.

This was to Lopen
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Lopen posted...

I feel like if you target an untargetable you don't actually get the message that you were roleblocked, generally

Am I wrong about that?

Generally it gives you a Roleblocked message.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I cannot remember a time I have actually been policy lynched - merely it is brought up over and over.

I am certain in Godzilla mafia or the dead town chat you were venting about being lynched in final 3 in some game "because you were still alive"

You even went off on plum for suggesting you be policy lynched in that game

This reaction is not authentic.
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I was lynched because Killjoy (player name) thought I was scum, not for policy reasons.

Nice try, Lopen.,
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Find the line in dead chat where it was because I was still alive. I will wait, sir.
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Nah. I'm certain it was relevant to plum saying if you're alive you must be scum thing otherwise it would be non-sequitur to mention it.
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Okay who cares I think you should claim chris what is there to lose

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It was related in that a idiot town murdered me. Look I've seen enough mercs/mafia/politics topics. You don't have the goods, but you'll act like you do. It literally did not happen. You are 100% fucking wrong.
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Look at this scum claiming I post in politics topics and claiming I make things up at that

Chris who isn't flailing desperately for breath isn't doing that
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Sure.

Kurama, I am Vig. That whole bit about the Yoko business is my flavor about why I get to drop a fool. That one's for you, Mzero!!

I thought Sultan no posted on purpose day 1 and he doesn't contribute to town anyway if he is one, so I figured it was a pretty good shot.

I was blocked again last night though.
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

It was related in that a idiot town murdered me. Look I've seen enough mercs/mafia/politics topics. You don't have the goods, but you'll act like you do. It literally did not happen. You are 100% fucking wrong.

Either way you're -3 claim or risk being lynched early.
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Not to be a mean man but I am your only proponent and I will not be at deadline Monday due to work. I have limited windows to lend town my powers of deduction, it just happens two days taking 6 combined hours puts me in this unique situation!

Help Me Help You


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Cool now Lea can't claim blocked so I look forward to her "watch"
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Would you like me to reveal my target or to not give scum more info, Lopen-senpai?
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