Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1312

(+) Yeah! (+)

FinaIFantasy posted...

Crono is definitely above him.

As to the rest do I expect him to beat Pikachu, nope.
Would I expect him to get 53 on Auron without SFF. Not at all.

Maybe Im wrong and hell hang with or beat Mario: but Seph is absolute shit right now, and I wouldnt even be surprised if hes not top 20.

I cant imagine Sonic losing to Bowser or Yoshi. I could see Seph doing it right now.

Sephiroth got about the same % on Ryu as Sonic is projected to have gotten on Sub-Zero. Ryu has always looked stronger than Sub-Zero so Sephiroth should at least be stronger than Sonic.
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how did Snake cut the lead down? did he gain votes per update or did Zelda lose votes per update?
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So looks like Snake lost this unless a rally saves the day.

But in some sense, this is what I wanted. Aeris overperformed, Squall redeemed.
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So uhh, Squall dont look as bad now as he did when he lost.
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I mean, Squall getting 37% against Snake still means he lost a step I think.
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That dude forgot to @ Kyle Reese.
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pjbasis posted...

I mean, Squall getting 37% against Snake still means he lost a step I think.

About 3% since 2010.

So depends on how much this is Snake stumbling. But Sonic is probably gonna get smashed so...
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Aeris strong.

Also Link v Zelda final calling it fhjvhjb n

Guess I'm eating my words. Doesn't help that MGS has pretty much ended and Zelda hasn't.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

FinaIFantasy posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

You seriously think Seph is at the bottom? There's absolutely no evidence for that. He's still only lost one 1v1 against anyone other than Cloud or Link (Snake in 2010, probably the strongest Snake has ever been), and even in multiways, RallyDraven and CounterrallyMewtwo are the only non-Link characters to beat him in a poll that Cloud wasn't in. I can understand projecting him to have fallen behind Mario, maybe even Samus. But Crono, Mega Man, and Sonic? I don't know. (Snake isn't counted in this because Seph was already behind him last we knew, since Snake's last known value was a lot better than what he seems to be now.)

Crono is definitely above him.

As to the rest do I expect him to beat Pikachu, nope.
Would I expect him to get 53 on Auron without SFF. Not at all.

Maybe Im wrong and hell hang with or beat Mario: but Seph is absolute shit right now, and I wouldnt even be surprised if hes not top 20.

I cant imagine Sonic losing to Bowser or Yoshi. I could see Seph doing it right now.

How do you figure that? Were you not paying attention to his matches, or do you just not have respect for his opponents? The only one that looks remotely "bad" to me was only 70-30ing Wesker in a year that RE seemed to be down.

After that? Three solid (60%+) wins over varying degrees of midcarders. For reasons still unknown, fighting game characters seemed to be stronger than usual this year, and Ryu already had a reputation for consistently breaking 40% on Noble Niners from the early days of the contest, so his failure to do so against Sephiroth should be sign enough that Seph's still got it. (Full list of characters to break 60% on Ryu directly: Cloud 3 times (twice in fourways and once 1v1), Samus in one of those fourways with Cloud, Draven in the best of his five rounds, and now Sephiroth. That's it. No, he's never faced Link.)

Id love you to be right.

Seph is one of my favorite characters ever. And watching every match this contest has been depressing.

Id pay about a 1,000 dollars to watch him beat Mario somehow...

I guess we need a "modern looking dude" contest for Snake to finally win one.
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Hey I am a Seph fanboy too. And yeah he has dropped a lot but I don't think he is the weakest NN'er though. Also Mario beats him with at least 60% I believe. Sad but true.
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Good thing we got Draven to win 2013 for us so that Snake could lose the only final he might have had a shot at.
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pjbasis posted...

Good thing we got Draven to win 2013 for us so that Snake could lose the only final he might have had a shot at.

Really the worst fucking thing about Draven

I would have LOVED to see Link/Mario/Snake.
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FinaIFantasy posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

FinaIFantasy posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

You seriously think Seph is at the bottom? There's absolutely no evidence for that. He's still only lost one 1v1 against anyone other than Cloud or Link (Snake in 2010, probably the strongest Snake has ever been), and even in multiways, RallyDraven and CounterrallyMewtwo are the only non-Link characters to beat him in a poll that Cloud wasn't in. I can understand projecting him to have fallen behind Mario, maybe even Samus. But Crono, Mega Man, and Sonic? I don't know. (Snake isn't counted in this because Seph was already behind him last we knew, since Snake's last known value was a lot better than what he seems to be now.)

Crono is definitely above him.

As to the rest do I expect him to beat Pikachu, nope.
Would I expect him to get 53 on Auron without SFF. Not at all.

Maybe Im wrong and hell hang with or beat Mario: but Seph is absolute shit right now, and I wouldnt even be surprised if hes not top 20.

I cant imagine Sonic losing to Bowser or Yoshi. I could see Seph doing it right now.

How do you figure that? Were you not paying attention to his matches, or do you just not have respect for his opponents? The only one that looks remotely "bad" to me was only 70-30ing Wesker in a year that RE seemed to be down.

After that? Three solid (60%+) wins over varying degrees of midcarders. For reasons still unknown, fighting game characters seemed to be stronger than usual this year, and Ryu already had a reputation for consistently breaking 40% on Noble Niners from the early days of the contest, so his failure to do so against Sephiroth should be sign enough that Seph's still got it. (Full list of characters to break 60% on Ryu directly: Cloud 3 times (twice in fourways and once 1v1), Samus in one of those fourways with Cloud, Draven in the best of his five rounds, and now Sephiroth. That's it. No, he's never faced Link.)

Id love you to be right.

Seph is one of my favorite characters ever. And watching every match this contest has been depressing.

Id pay about a 1,000 dollars to watch him beat Mario somehow...

Unfortunately for you, I don't think that'll happen. I'm merely trying to refute this guy who's saying that Sephiroth has completely gone in the tank.

Sephiroth probably has weakened a little. Most characters do unless they consistently get new games. And Mario is fresh off some very well-received games.

Just know that if Mario beats Sephiroth for the first time in 7 tries, it's because he boosted, not because Sephiroth isn't elite anymore. Seph is still probably a top 5 character. Definitely still top 10. But Mario is probably Top 3 now. (I was going to say #2, but it's always dangerous to underestimate Cloud.)
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Rallies took Snake>Link and Chrono Trigger>Ocarina of Time from us. If there's something to regret about them, it's that.
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Zelda by the hour:
time | percent | gain/loss | lead/deficit
20:00 | 50.64% | +50 | +50
21:00 | 51.10% | +55 | +105
22:00 | 52.27% | +98 | +203
23:00 | 50.30% | +11 | +214
00:00 | 52.87% | +84 | +298
01:00 | 51.00% | +29 | +327
02:00 | 46.02% | -96 | +231
03:00 | 47.79% | -43 | +188
04:00 | 49.82% | -3 | +185
05:00 | 44.30% | -80 | +105
06:00 | 44.84% | -75 | +30
07:00 | 46.95% | -54 | -24
08:00 | 50.00% | 0 | -24
09:00 | 50.58% | +12 | -12
10:00 | 50.98% | +20 | +8
11:00 | 51.47% | +29 | +37
12:00 | 54.75% | +91 | +128
13:00 | 50.17% | +3 | +131
14:00 | 51.51% | +26 | +157

Based on the last 2 hours, Zelda wins by 230 votes.
Based on the last hour, Zelda wins by 287 votes.
Based on the last 30 minutes, Zelda wins by 637 votes.
Based on the last 10 minutes, Snake wins by 23 votes.

lordjers posted...

I guess we need a "modern looking dude" contest for Snake to finally win one.

Samus..

KamikazePotato posted...

Rallies took Snake>Link and Chrono Trigger>Ocarina of Time from us. If there's something to regret about them, it's that.

I'm not convinced about that.
While clearly they didn't work well enough, the Link rallies brought him thousands of votes and gave him 400 cuts on Draven towards the end. Even before, rallies on subreddits nintendo and gaming gave him +200 per updates before they were deleted.
Now, I'm not sure if people would have tried against Snake but that wouldn't have surprised me.
And since CT would not have been nearly as overwhelming as Undertale, I'm pretty sure there would have been rallies for OoT too (and rallying for CT is ... complicated).

KamikazePotato posted...

Rallies took Snake>Link and Chrono Trigger>Ocarina of Time from us. If there's something to regret about them, it's that.

REALITY took Snake>Link away..

It was NEVER ever happening. Ever.

We get losers first so were gonna see how a lot of matches will play out when their competition goes up against each other

Snake needs to do comparable to what Sonic is doing to Auron to make Sonic > Zelda a possibility

Bowser needs to ravage Alucard to make Crono > Cloud a possibility (I just realized Crono has yet to face a FF7 Noble niner one on one. Damn you Missingno)
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Thought this was over, but maybe Snake will make another run at it...?
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Thought this was over, but maybe Snake will make another run at it...?

MGS fans will cheat till the bitter end.

Theyve proven that in 16 years...

i'll believe in snake if - and only if - he can get it under 100 again

half the time he's made a move in this match zelda's just erased everything in one or two updates
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I would think if he gets it under 100 that Zelda just instantly bounces back. Like you said, every time he's made significant gains Zelda has erased long chunks of cuts in 2-3 updates

Snake trying to fight even though it's utterly hopeless. *salutes*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9hagVL-__c" data-time="
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I find it kind of ironic that the Eastern bloc countries favor Snake.

Maybe they actually think the USA is controlled by the Patriots lol.

Everybody knows there is a global conspiracy based in USA. Duh.
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Snake > Link was never going to happen. I am also highly sceptical about CT>OoT.
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If Snake losses this then I blame Smash. What that game did to the sexiest butt in gaming is unforgivable!
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Hm, Snake still seems to have an outside chance.. I thought Zelda would have had a bigger lead by now. Still her match to lose though.
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15:00 | 48.48% | -23 | +134

Snake wins an hour for the first time in 8 hours.

As of 15:00:
Snake needs to cut 2.79 votes/update to tie.
Based on the last 2 hours, Zelda wins by 140 votes.
Based on the last hour, Zelda wins by 42 votes.
Based on the last 30 minutes, Zelda wins by 134 votes.

Snake's chances of winning is probably dependant on if he gets more rally votes than Zelda.
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I'd say Snake needs to start making larger cuts without stalls to have a chance. If it's close in the final hour, I think Zelda would have more chance of being pushed to victory than Snake

Really what killed Snake was that huge 60-90 minutes worth of stalling in the middle of the night vote where you would have expected Snake to pick up 100+ votes but Zelda completely stalled him

I know no one is talking about this(it's kind of old news), but Link getting 80% on Ganon was still pretty damn awesome to see.

If anyone else got 80% on GANONDORF it would have been the story of the season, but because it's Link... it's viewed as normal.
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SuperNiceDog posted...

I know no one has talked about this, but Link getting 80% on Ganon was still pretty damn awesome to see.

If anyone else got 80% on GANONDORF it would have been the story of the season, but because it's Link... it's viewed as normal.

Thats what happens when you near 90d him once

Normal? No, Link getting 80% on Ganondorf is proof of Link being vulnerable.

It's just that everyone else is vulnerabler.
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SuperNiceDog posted...

I know no one has talked about this, but Link getting 80% on Ganon was still pretty damn awesome to see.

Its kinda a shame he had to be fed to Link in the 1st round of the Finals, but at least better him than Zelda since she has some real potential to do damage before getting to Link.
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I mean 80% on Ganon is massively down on the 87.9% he put on Ganon in 2k4 which was worse than he beat CATS the previous round

SuperNiceDog posted...

I know no one is talking about this(it's kind of old news), but Link getting 80% on Ganon was still pretty damn awesome to see.

If anyone else got 80% on GANONDORF it would have been the story of the season, but because it's Link... it's viewed as normal.

Because it's Link it's viewed as disappointing
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zelda's hanging on for dear life

Zylothewolf posted...

If Snake losses this then I blame Smash. What that game did to the sexiest butt in gaming is unforgivable!

Snake's ass has been restored:

https://66.media.tumblr.com/93fffaf7f6eac6ce2a952868877ba17c/tumblr_phvjnvAikj1qep3h6o2_1280.jpg

(this twitter account has since been suspended, so I can't link you to the original tweet unfortunately)
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ShatteredElysium posted...

I mean 80% on Ganon is massively down on the 87.9% he put on Ganon in 2k4 which was worse than he beat CATS the previous round

oh that's right... 2004 Link was sick.
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snake_5036 posted...

zelda's hanging on for dear life

Zylothewolf posted...

If Snake losses this then I blame Smash. What that game did to the sexiest butt in gaming is unforgivable!

Snake's ass has been restored:

https://66.media.tumblr.com/93fffaf7f6eac6ce2a952868877ba17c/tumblr_phvjnvAikj1qep3h6o2_1280.jpg

(this twitter account has since been suspended, so I can't link you to the original tweet unfortunately)

Nobody tells me the really important news. :( Thx!
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Why is Snake above Zelda?

Oh deleted now.
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paulg235 posted...

Snake's chances of winning is probably dependant on if he gets more rally votes than Zelda.

so is there actually a snake rally right now somewhere? and i don't mean that one on r/metalgearsolid with 11 measly upvotes.

Is there any reason Sephiroth will get anywhere near Mario aside from the fact that all the Noble Niners are (under)performing? (oh, wait... Sephiroth is a Noble Niner, too!)
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Preliminary x-stats for the matches so far using number crunching nonsense. This is extremely subject to change.

Cloud - 50
Zelda - 48.41
Pikachu - 48.40
Mega Man - 48.40
Solid Snake - 48.12
Crono - 47.02
Ganondorf - 44.82
Sonic - 44.46
Bowser - 42.42
Auron - 40.82
Alucard - 39.60

mnkboy907 posted...

Why is Snake above Zelda?

Oh deleted now.

Because I put an / instead of an * in a line of Excel.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Cloud - 50
Zelda - 48.41
Pikachu - 48.40
Mega Man - 48.40
Solid Snake - 48.12
Crono - 47.02

throw it in the trash
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Sephiroth looked pretty good in all his matches so far. And even though there was a 10k-vote rally and LFF, Mario did lose to Vivi last contest. Plus Sephiroth has destroyed Mario whenever they have faced in the past.

That said, I have Mario low to mid 50s.