Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1312

(+) Yeah! (+)

100
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Averia posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

Rallies took Snake>Link and Chrono Trigger>Ocarina of Time from us. If there's something to regret about them, it's that.

I'm not convinced about that.
While clearly they didn't work well enough, the Link rallies brought him thousands of votes and gave him 400 cuts on Draven towards the end. Even before, rallies on subreddits nintendo and gaming gave him +200 per updates before they were deleted.
Now, I'm not sure if people would have tried against Snake but that wouldn't have surprised me.
And since CT would not have been nearly as overwhelming as Undertale, I'm pretty sure there would have been rallies for OoT too (and rallying for CT is ... complicated).

I'm pretty sure there would have been no significant rally for Link/OOT except against Draven. Link was the hero in that match, he would be the tyrant against normal characters.
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Zelda responds to the lead being cut to 100 with the largest update by either of them in over an hour

KamikazePotato posted...

Rallies took Snake>Link and Chrono Trigger>Ocarina of Time from us. If there's something to regret about them, it's that.

Thanks for posting the two most annoying wishful thinkings in the same post
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I mean all Snake needed was for Samus to hold Link down just a little bit to beat him.
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After that entire hour, it only ends up a 2 vote win by Snake. Zelda is doing the stalling she needs.
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Another large update for Zelda. If she carries on like this she either has a minor rally or the voting pattern has swung enough where Snake will get buried

Her last 2 updates were 41 and 45 after averaging 26.9 votes the previous 10 updates

Zelda by the hour:
time | percent | gain/loss | lead/deficit
20:00 | 50.64% | +50 | +50
21:00 | 51.10% | +55 | +105
22:00 | 52.27% | +98 | +203
23:00 | 50.30% | +11 | +214
00:00 | 52.87% | +84 | +298
01:00 | 51.00% | +29 | +327
02:00 | 46.02% | -96 | +231
03:00 | 47.79% | -43 | +188
04:00 | 49.82% | -3 | +185
05:00 | 44.30% | -80 | +105
06:00 | 44.84% | -75 | +30
07:00 | 46.95% | -54 | -24
08:00 | 50.00% | 0 | -24
09:00 | 50.58% | +12 | -12
10:00 | 50.98% | +20 | +8
11:00 | 51.47% | +29 | +37
12:00 | 54.75% | +91 | +128
13:00 | 50.17% | +3 | +131
14:00 | 51.51% | +26 | +157
15:00 | 48.48% | -23 | +134
16:00 | 49.86% | -2 | +132

Snake needs to cut 3.67 votes per update to tie.
Based on the last 2 hours, Zelda wins by 95 votes.
Based on the last hour, Zelda wins by 126 votes.
Based on the last 30 minutes, Zelda wins by 264 votes.

This result is still so surreal to me.
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Man this prooves that even if Snake wins he has no chance againt Link. He can barelly defeat Zelda. Eh.
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Safer_777 posted...

Man this prooves that even if Snake wins he has no chance againt Link. He can barelly defeat Zelda. Eh.

we've got a generation these days who thinks Link's name is Zelda

Snake's still got a chance
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I am hyped for the Zelda/Zelda finals.
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Yeah, barring a Snake rally this is done. That update was all Snake falling away rather than Zelda spiking like previously

so i kinda wanna go to sleep, but also Zelda's lead isn't big enough for me to comfortably go to sleep with, so i'm just gonna do the thing.
sorry.

With 30 updates left, Snake needs to cut 4.63 votes per update to tie.

He needs about 53% of the remaining votes.

tennisboy213 posted...

With 30 updates left, Snake needs to cut 4.63 votes per update to tie.

He needs about 53% of the remaining votes.

So essentially what you're saying he needs to turn into overnight Snake suddenly to win.

Yeah, its not looking good.
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just gotta get a rally going

n_n
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150 vote difference now

zelda's got this barring an immediate david hayter tweet
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It's okay, Zelda doesn't win clutch matches
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Has Zelda ever had matches that could even be clutch?

Or is that the joke?
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Lopen posted...

Has Zelda ever had matches that could even be clutch?

Or is that the joke?

Charizard/DK in 2013
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although the statement was more about the Zelda series in general because they usually win big if they win and they lose a relatively high percentage of the time if their opponent can keep it close
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Holy **** Snake is losing to Zelda? I know the NN isn't quite a thing anymore but I did not expect Snake to lose to someone outside of the NN. Last time we saw him in a proper 1vs1 match he was beating Sephiroth.

I guess it kinds of makes sense. The MGS series is in a very bad situation...a lot of fans were unhappy with MGSV which solid snake was not even the protagonist of while Zelda had a game many consider to be one of the best ever made.

next match is going to suck, both Tifa and Seph will probably lose. Hopefully they put up a good fight.
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Match CXXVII: (2) Samus Aran vs. (3) Tifa Lockheart

Previous/Current Contest Performance

Samus Aran - 2013
Round 1: 68.51% against Sandbag (18.86%) and Isaac Clarke (12.63%)
Round 2: 61.85% against Knuckles the Echidna (21.33%) and Catherine (16.82%)
Round 3: 41.70% against Tifa Lockheart (33.81%) and L-Block (24.49%)
Round 4: 38.48% against Mega Man (33.32%) and Pokemon Trainer Red (28.20%)
Round 5: 18.06% against Draven (49.13%) and Solid Snake (32.81%)

Tifa Lockheart
Defeated Geno, 73.19% - 26.81%
Defeated Mewtwo, 58.10% - 41.90%
Defeated Mega Man X, 50.18% - 49.82%
Defeated Luigi, 51.36% - 48.64%

Analysis

Heres a rematch no one really wanted. In 2013 Samus had no issue defeating Tifa and while in 2006 she needed a comeback to win, that was more due to the Zero Suit Samus picture than anything else. Theres a lot of discussion as to where Samus ranks within the Noble Nine outside that she would clearly lose to Link and Mario. From what Ive seen so far, she has a great chance at being the third strongest overall, but shell need to prove it.

Tifa did well to reach the championship bracket, but her performances against Mega Man X and Luigi shows that she isnt a Noble Nine breaker, at least not at the level where she could defeat Samus. Her match against Luigi has likely killed off any chance that she could be stronger than Cloud or Sephiroth, but that was always going to be a long shot.

charmander6000s Bracket: Samus Aran > Mega Man X

charmander6000s Prediction: Samus Aran wins, 57.31% - 42.69%




Match CXXVIII: (7) Mario vs. (1) Sephiroth

Previous/Current Contest Performance

Mario - 2013
Round 1: 69.47% against Duke Nukem (20.12%) and Fawful (10.41%)
Round 2: 41.09% against Vivi (41.27%) and Ganondorf (17.64%)

Sephiroth
Defeated Albert Wesker, 70.28% - 29.72%
Defeated Captain Falcon, 64.93% - 35.07%
Defeated Amaterasu, 61.37% - 38.63%
Defeated Ryu, 60.26% - 39.74%

Analysis

Sephiroth has been a monkey on Marios back during the early to mid contests and this will be his best chance at overcoming that mental block. Mario wasnt exactly decent in 2013, sure he lost to Vivi due to Ganondorf and rallies, but at the same time he would have underperformed by quite a lot. Vivi has since proven himself in this contest and while I feel the board may now consider Mario to be the number 2 its more due to no one else stepping up.

Sephiroth looked okay in his matches, nothing to suggest that he dropped in strength, but nothing that Mario couldnt replicate except maybe his performance against Ryu. Sephiroths best chance at winning is to hope that the characters in the main bracket have received a boost. I still dont quite believe it, but it would suggest why the Elite 8 characters have relatively underperformed.

charmander6000s Bracket: Mario > Sephiroth

charmander6000s Prediction: Mario wins, 55.31% - 44.69%
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17:00 | 50.57% | +7 | +139

Snake needs to cut 5.79 votes per update or get ~54% of the remaining votes to tie.
Based on the last 3 hours, Zelda wins by 127 votes.
Based on the last hour, Zelda wins by 153 votes.
Based on the last 30 minutes, Zelda wins by 139 votes.

Snake needs to contact his friends by codec for tips on defeating Zelda, fast.
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How stronk does Zelda look right now?

I anticipated that even with the MGS decline it would knock him down from #2 to top 5 rather than to barely top 10.

If he is still borderline top 5 and on the same level as Cloud, Mario, Samus that means Zelda could be the potential #2. Its also possible Snake has just tanked hard and he might be below Megaman/Sonic/Crono now and that Zelda is still well below Samus/Mario/Cloud.
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If Snake can't beat Zelda his entire bracket career is pointless anyway
Just hope he will do better in the losers bracket
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We'll find out next round!
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Anyone found signs of a noteworthy rally?
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I have 87 friends waiting to vote for Snake at 6:58 Eastern. Its not enough though. Were trying to get more.

Moonroof posted...

I have 87 friends waiting to vote for Snake at 6:58 Eastern. Its not enough though. Were trying to get more.

I wanted this to be real and actually thought for a moment "it might be.." then I read the username
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Link versus Cloud posted...

How stronk does Zelda look right now?

I anticipated that even with the MGS decline it would knock him down from #2 to top 5 rather than to barely top 10.

If he is still borderline top 5 and on the same level as Cloud, Mario, Samus that means Zelda could be the potential #2. Its also possible Snake has just tanked hard and he might be below Megaman/Sonic/Crono now and that Zelda is still well below Samus/Mario/Cloud.

If we keep the relationship between Auron and Aerith constant she is expected to get 51.24% against Sonic.

Auron is probably weaker now, but regardless her performance against Aerith places Zelda in the lower noble nine region. Could Snake have dropped that much? Possibly. Regardless this likely won't place her as the number 2 though she should give any character a scare (before SFF).
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Nanis23 posted...

Moonroof posted...

I have 87 friends waiting to vote for Snake at 6:58 Eastern. Its not enough though. Were trying to get more.

I wanted this to be real and actually thought for a moment "it might be.." then I read the username

Im serious. Were up to 93 now. Youre just jealous Im ahead of you in the leaderboard.

Moonroof posted...

Nanis23 posted...

Moonroof posted...

I have 87 friends waiting to vote for Snake at 6:58 Eastern. Its not enough though. Were trying to get more.

I wanted this to be real and actually thought for a moment "it might be.." then I read the username

Im serious. Were up to 93 now. Youre just jealous Im ahead of you in the leaderboard.

Are you admin of an msg forum or something
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Moonroof posted...

I have 87 friends

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Moonroof posted...

Nanis23 posted...

Moonroof posted...

I have 87 friends waiting to vote for Snake at 6:58 Eastern. Its not enough though. Were trying to get more.

I wanted this to be real and actually thought for a moment "it might be.." then I read the username

Im serious. Were up to 93 now. Youre just jealous Im ahead of you in the leaderboard.

Oh you passed me? now I feel even worse for taking Bowser over Crono
Fuck my life
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I hope you learned your lesson.

Currently up to 99 btw.

With 18 updates left, Snake needs to cut 7.72 votes per update to tie. He needs ~55% of the remaining votes.

You know what though
I want something like Moonroof said to happen SO MUCH I just want to believe it
Like, I dunno, Steiner or someone asking the whole Discord to hold their vote for the last minute in a close match, and then boom, 150 votes comeback
It will never, ever happen, but it can be fucking cool
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Nanis23 posted...

You know what though
I want something like Moonroof said to happen SO MUCH I just want to believe it
Like, I dunno, Steiner or someone asking the whole Discord to hold their vote for the last minute in a close match, and then boom, 150 votes comeback
It will never, ever happen, but it can be fucking cool

If its ever gonna happen...

How about...

NOT THIS MATCH!!!

Can we not ruin our Crowning Moment in contests?

Thx.

Link versus Cloud posted...

How stronk does Zelda look right now?

KamikazePotato posted...

Preliminary x-stats for the matches so far using number crunching nonsense. This is extremely subject to change.

Cloud - 50
Zelda - 48.41
Pikachu - 48.40
Mega Man - 48.40
Solid Snake - 48.12
Crono - 47.02
Ganondorf - 44.82
Sonic - 44.46
Bowser - 42.42
Auron - 40.82
Alucard - 39.60

Zelda is legitimizing her result against Squall and Aeris today. Other N9 members are going to have to bring their A-game from here on out.
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111 people!

Moonroof posted...

111 people!

And it still won't be enough
But go ahead and hype your n_n
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KamikazePotato posted...

Cloud - 50
Zelda - 48.41
Pikachu - 48.40
Mega Man - 48.40
Solid Snake - 48.12
Crono - 47.02
Ganondorf - 44.82
Sonic - 44.46
Bowser - 42.42
Auron - 40.82
Alucard - 39.60

Zelda is legitimizing her result against Squall and Aeris today. Other N9 members are going to have to bring their A-game from here on out.

What are these numbers based on? 2013 adjusted stats vs base Cloud? Also why aren't Samus and Mario on there?

Seeing this result, my intuition says that Zelda will beat Sonic and then lose to Mario and then Samus. But who knows maybe she can get some hierarchy based rSFF in those match-ups too.
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13 updates left
Snake needs 111 people per update to win
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Nanis23 posted...

13 updates left
Snake needs 111 people per update to win

Better call Tumblr or /r/lol then.
Only an instant mega rally can save him !

Just got up to 115.

Moonroof posted...

Just got up to 115.

Proof needed
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Moonroof posted...

Just got up to 115.

I hope you realize that what little credibility you ever had here is riding on this actually happening.
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