Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1312

(+) Yeah! (+)

Is this the last character battle? I saw someone mention that it was...
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Keep in mind I think a lot of this disconnect is I'm still not convinced Zelda is super steroid right now and a lot of this is Snake being down closer to pre Brawl levels given MGS sucking this contest. Like to me this isn't a "Sonic rSFFs Zelda type sell as much as just a garden variety SFFs her" type sell. I'm thinking from the mindset of a guy who thought Sonic should be considered a slight favorite over Snake

Like let's forget Squall vs Zelda and stick to Aeris vs Zelda for the sanity check. Zelda vs Aeris compared to Sonic vs Auron, especially if you assume Vincent and Aeris are anywhere near close, to me isn't looking like Zelda is so much stronger on paper. You think of it that way and Sonic/Zelda is closer to a 50/50, and the amount of SFF needed for Sonic to beat her worse than Auron isn't monstrous
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imthestuntman posted...

Is this the last character battle? I saw someone mention that it was...

Nobody knows
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I don't think Sonic is really that susceptible to Nintendo SFF. He suffers from gaming icon SFF against Link.
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imthestuntman posted...

Is this the last character battle? I saw someone mention that it was...

I fucking hope so.
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If Vincent = Aerith, Zelda is projected to get 53.89% on Sonic.
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Lopen posted...

Like let's forget Squall vs Zelda and stick to Aeris vs Zelda for the sanity check. Zelda vs Aeris compared to Sonic vs Auron, especially if you assume Vincent and Aeris are anywhere near close, to me isn't looking like Zelda is so much stronger on paper. You think of it that way and Sonic/Zelda is closer to a 50/50, and the amount of SFF needed for Sonic to beat her worse than Auron isn't monstrous

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFoC3TR5rzI" data-time="
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Sonic just outright lost an hour to Auron.
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I just did the math and if Vincent = Aeris, then I believe Zelda gets 57.5% on Auron and 54% on Sonic pre-SFF.

...that's a healthy amount for Sonic to rSFF Zelda.
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Looks like a mgs rally has already been posted on Reddit.

Not seeing anything for Zelda yet, unless there is a hentai rally. I mean where would you even go to find hentai, much less fans of it to rally....
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See that's not like, off on an island. You could also believe Vincent > Aeris by some amount. Contest history would certainly suggest it. You can't go TOO high as Sub-Zero and Magus anchor it to some ectent, but yeah I dunno.

I think a lot of people are writing Sonic off just because he's historically been the NN whipping boy, but Sonic probably isn't the weakest NNer this year based on previous rounds
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I mean where would you even go to find hentai

are you asking for recommendations, or...?
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ExThaNemesis posted...

imthestuntman posted...

Is this the last character battle? I saw someone mention that it was...

I fucking hope not.

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imthestuntman posted...

where would you even go to find hentai

I can't tell if you're serious or not >_>
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:)
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Like I'm not expecting Zelda to go out and 60-40 Sonic or anything. I do expect something closer to a 54% win for Zelda. Pushing her down to Auron is around 8 percentage points of rSFF. That's quite a lot.
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Just out of curiosity since you guys already did most of the work if you set Aeris = Magus where are the percentages on Sonic/Zelda
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About 55.5% on Auron, 51.6% on Sonic
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imthestuntman posted...

Looks like a mgs rally has already been posted on Reddit.

Not seeing anything for Zelda yet, unless there is a hentai rally. I mean where would you even go to find hentai, much less fans of it to rally....

MGS rally would be best to try tweet David Hayter since he's retweeted for Snake in the past

ShatteredElysium posted...

imthestuntman posted...

Looks like a mgs rally has already been posted on Reddit.

Not seeing anything for Zelda yet, unless there is a hentai rally. I mean where would you even go to find hentai, much less fans of it to rally....

MGS rally would be best to try tweet David Hayter since he's retweeted for Snake in the past

Well that sounds like it would be pretty damning given how close it is
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Ok, I think barring rallies, Zelda has a very good chance of winning here. She's trending pretty much the same as her match against the Boss so far (which would project her winning with about 51% at the end) and very different from the Dedede/Ocelot, Tifa/Luigi or K. Rool/Shepard matches (who have already shown signs of collapse at this point).
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MZero11 posted...

ExThaNemesis posted...

This might be the worst result in the history of the contest, tbh.

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(8)Missingno_vs_(11)Tidus_vs_(20)Banjo_2013

Ugh yeah, Banjo deserved so much better. :(
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Cloud Strife 50.00%
Alucard 39.61%
Pokemon Trainer Red 36.59%
Sora 35.93%
Big Boss 35.00%
Princess Peach 34.22%
Crash Bandicoot 32.99%
Kefka 32.13%
Yuna 31.99%
Ridley 30.33%
Cecil Harvey 30.23%
Bomberman 25.82%
L-Block 25.58%
Ryo Hazuki 22.22%
Kazuma Kiryu 20.20%
Neptune 18.06%
Godot 17.56%

Crono 50.00%
Bowser 45.12%
Kirby 41.64%
Charizard 39.21%
2B 37.73%
Terra Branford 37.02%
Ness 34.92%
Shadow the Hedgehog 32.64%
Phoenix Wright 26.39%
Ike 26.04%
Isaac 24.74%
Chris Redfield 22.73%
Guile 21.20%
Gordon Freeman 20.40%
Joel 19.62%
Estelle Bright 17.51%
Cayde-6 16.75%
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Yeah, I think we're getting to the point we can call this for Zelda. I don't think there are enough votes available overnight for Snake to take the lead AND get enough of a cushion to protect himself from Zeldas day vote.
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I mean once you get to the day vote in a 50/50 match rally power matters more than trends
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Zelda has this match locked up. You don't lose this much ground overnight against anyone unless you're a Mega Man character.
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2Dover3D posted...

Yeah, I think we're getting to the point we can call this for Zelda. I don't think there are enough votes available overnight for Snake to take the lead AND get enough of a cushion to protect himself from Zeldas day vote.

There are still rallies so I wouldn't go this far. I'm only saying that the conditions are favorable to Zelda right now and I would think she should win without rallies.
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LeonhartFour posted...

I mean once you get to the day vote in a 50/50 match rally power matters more than trends

Thats assuming its even a 50/50 match. I think rallies matter much more in a case like Mega Man vs Pikachu where it was really close AND Pikachu was the underdog. Are people going to rally hard for a guy whos expected to win, plus will probably already be down by a couple hundred votes?
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Hopefully Snake's night vote ends up being a thing of beauty
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I mean people will try

people always try
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haloiscoolisbak posted...

Hopefully Snake's night vote ends up being a thing of beauty

He's going to need it, because by the time he stops bleeding it could be a 500 vote lead. Not even Geralt being a European character moved 500 votes overnight, more like 200-300.
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I like how Snake is winning in almost the entire world but US and Canada favor Zelda and it's enough
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Yeah I would say Zelda already has this unless theres a rally. It's already looking like too many votes to overturn when he's going to lose the day vote. Maybe if it was even here but not 300+ votes down. He might not even retake the lead at this rate

Nanis23 posted...

I like how Snake is winning in almost the entire world but US and Canada favor Zelda and it's enough

Well thats not really true
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Snake's one ray of hope is the second day vote doesn't really play out like a miniature version of the first one. There are similarities but it's often very different.

I don't think the lead is insurmountable to reclaim yet and if the day vote tomorrow plays out differently it could become interesting. I think Zelda needs to hit 400 for me to really feel safe calling it
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2Dover3D posted...

haloiscoolisbak posted...

Hopefully Snake's night vote ends up being a thing of beauty

He's going to need it, because by the time he stops bleeding it could be a 500 vote lead. Not even Geralt being a European character moved 500 votes overnight, more like 200-300.

I think the bleeding has already stopped to an extent. Last few updates have had the lead at 340 > 341 > 342 > 337 > 319. He will likely start stalling out here or possibly even cutting

Well, we're about to hit the Euro vote, so if Snake IS going to start making a comeback, it'll be soon.
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ShatteredElysium posted...

2Dover3D posted...

haloiscoolisbak posted...

Hopefully Snake's night vote ends up being a thing of beauty

He's going to need it, because by the time he stops bleeding it could be a 500 vote lead. Not even Geralt being a European character moved 500 votes overnight, more like 200-300.

I think the bleeding has already stopped to an extent. Last few updates have had the lead at 340 > 341 > 342 > 337 > 319. He will likely start stalling out here or possibly even cutting

Typically the Euro vote doesn't come into full effect until 2:30-3 AM EST from what I've seen. They might start stalling a bit at this time, so 500 might be tough but I fully expect Zelda to hit 400 before Snake starts cutting.
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Do we know if NY or Cali has a larger presence on this site?
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The UK vote isn't the big thing propping up Snake here (although it's a factor) - it's that he's winning basically the entire right half of the map. That means you started gaining ground earlier than 3 AM. Tifa was the same scenario and her comeback started in full...uh, now.
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Well, Snake's pulled off a couple of sizable cuts in between Zelda stalls, so this could happen if he can keep that up.
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Cmon snakey
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Even if Snake does pull this off, this is still a bracketbuster for me (and I'm in the Top 10) as I have Snake going past Mario which has zero chance of happening based on this match

hey now we haven't even given Mario a chance to crap the bed yet
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Nanis23 posted...

I like how Snake is winning in almost the entire world but US and Canada favor Zelda and it's enough

After the end of Mega Man/Pikachu, the world was split into two -- East and Nintendo. This marked the beginning of the era called the Cold Console War.
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After reading earlier that Germany and France are Zelda states and that this may dilute the night vote I had a look and I'd say there's been less than 200 votes from them. All the territories within those countries have splits like exactly 66.6-33.3and 75-25 which would indicate likely very small votals

Either way this is gonna be exciting
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Is Metal Gear Solid or Final Fantasy more "night vote" friendly?
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FFVII is the king of the night vote. Beyond that, it's probably pretty close.
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Based on Zelda/Aeris trends..... Zelda wins with 50.42%.
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Based on Zelda/The Boss, Zelda wins with 50.75%.
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