Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1305

(+) Yeah! (+)

who am I judging there

I'm just stating my personal views
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KamikazePotato posted...

Are we going to ignore the actual numbers I just posted heavily implying that Tifa still wins even if you remove all rallies

We are? Okay just making sure

I'll start this off by saying it's entirely possible you're right and Tifa wins with no rallies. I don't think we have a clear idea who wins that scenario so I have no issue with that.

But I don't know if I agree the registered/unregistered numbers you posted really indicate that. I'd be skeptical to draw any conclusions from those, really, but I think the one I'd be most confident in is simply that Nintendo does better with registered voters.

Tifa faces Nintendo characters both times (Geno being a hybrid) and NintendoFAQs isn't just a joke so she fares worse with the registered users. MMX fares worse with registered voters when up against Isabelle whereas he does better with them against Ocelot.

Now, if we go by Mega Man having become Nintendo-adjacent in the contests, then yeah, that's a point in Tifa's favor given it was a draw on registered voters but again... I'm shaky on trying to draw conclusions on this. At the very most, I think I could be talked into saying the match was Lean Tifa, but really I feel more comfortable in saying we just don't know what would have happened.
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It's hilarious that BT clings to this idea that there was Tifa vote stuffing because someone figured out that all of the Peruvian VPNs had already voted for X, which would imply the opposite.

It makes even less sense when you recall that O Fool had already brought this up much earlier in the contest and gave a reasonable explanation as to why he came across this information.

None of that fits the narrative, though.
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xp1337 posted...

At the very most, I think I could be talked into saying the match was Lean Tifa, but really I feel more comfortable in saying we just don't know what would have happened.

This is totally true. It was close enough without rallies that either character could win.

also I'm filling out the trend charts right now

Tails and Ammy got a noticeable bump with the day vote but KOS-MOS did nothing?
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BT clinging to the "TIFA HAD AN ADMITTED VOTE STUFFER" is the most Alex Jones tin foil nonsense ever, and I love it.
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LeonhartFour posted...

xp1337 posted...

At the very most, I think I could be talked into saying the match was Lean Tifa, but really I feel more comfortable in saying we just don't know what would have happened.

This is totally true. It was close enough without rallies that either character could win.

also I'm filling out the trend charts right now

Tails and Ammy got a noticeable bump with the day vote but KOS-MOS did nothing?

Yeah, even during the hentai rally, there wasn't much of a boost for KOS-MOS aside from like one stall I noticed, but Ammy and Tails made some gains.
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davidponte posted...

It's hilarious that BT clings to this idea that there was Tifa vote stuffing because someone figured out that all of the Peruvian VPNs had already voted for X, which would imply the opposite.

It makes even less sense when you recall that O Fool had already brought this up much earlier in the contest and gave a reasonable explanation as to why he came across this information.

None of that fits the narrative, though.

Let's be clear here, this guy was trying to vote stuff and realized that his VPN IP addresses had already voted. He then made up the excuse that he was using Peruvian IP addresses (unfounded) and the fact that MMX was winning handily in Peru (which any contest veteran knows about Mega Man's dominance in South/Latin America) to assume that those addresses voted for X.

So the first thing to note, is this person LITERALLY ADMITTED he was trying to use a VPN to stuff votes for Tifa.

Second thing to note is that he has no proof the votes were registered for X.

Third thing to note, is this is entirely hearsay, and he could be making it up.

Nothing about the results from South America indicate any kind of foul play, just like the mirrored results from Europe don't either.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Tails and Ammy got a noticeable bump with the day vote but KOS-MOS did nothing?

This is lowkey the funniest part of the match.
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KamikazePotato posted...

creativename posted...

Would like to see if anyone will try and rally for Bowser at hentai subs. Vote for Bowsettes alter ego or she will get sucked off (the contest) by Kirby!

Don't tempt me.

DO IT!
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At this point who fucking cares, yet another contest has been ruined by the rally crew. Even with the registered voter bonus, these contests are impossible to run in 2018, with all the porno subreddits and shitty Twitch streamers that offer an endless pool of votes for the degenerates on Board 8 like ExTha and Leon.
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charmander6000 posted...

Based on previous matches this round we got around 2000 rallied votes in total.

Well, I just did an hourly registered user voting trend chart for Tifa/MMX:

Time | By Hour | Overall
20:00 | 58.48% | 58.48%
21:00 | 55.03% | 57.07%
22:00 | 51.63% | 55.59%
23:00 | 51.14% | 54.79%
0:00 | 49.86% | 54.14%
1:00 | 50.23% | 53.69%
2:00 | 43.27% | 52.77%
3:00 | 46.09% | 52.32%
4:00 | 43.82% | 51.85%
5:00 | 45.77% | 51.58%
6:00 | 45.26% | 51.32%
7:00 | 42.57% | 50.90%
8:00 | 45.24% | 50.62%
9:00 | 39.98% | 50.03%
10:00 | 41.89% | 49.59%
11:00 | 41.88% | 49.22%
12:00 | 40.81% | 48.84%
13:00 | 36.87% | 48.33%
14:00 | 36.27% | 47.85%
15:00 | 36.59% | 47.46%
16:00 | 34.25% | 47.03%
17:00 | 29.49% | 46.51%
18:00 | 29.20% | 45.87%
19:00 | 24.92% | 44.98%

Even at the start, the registered user percentage wasn't as high as it normally would be. Usually that first hour gets around 60-63% registered users, but it was under 59% in this match. The closest comparison I could find was the Auron/Lucina match (from the same day of Magus/Vincent), which had 49.44% registered users at 11:00 AM. Tifa/MMX was at 49.59% registered users at 10:00 AM (remember that Tifa/MMX started at 7:00 PM compared to the 8:00 PM start of Auron/Lucina). Based on Auron/Lucina, we were on a crash course to finish with about 47.00% registered users, but we actually finished with 44.98% registered users. About 960 anonymous votes would have to be removed to end up with 47.00% registered users instead.

The most noticeable effects of the rallies was seen during the final 3 hours of the match, which had under 30% registered users. The final hour was the most rally affected hour of the match.
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Yesterday's X-Stats:

Division 7

Luigi 50.00%
Frog 38.37%
Miles Tails Prower 30.35%
Master Chief 27.02%
Nathan Drake 26.26%
Miles Edgeworth 22.53%
Monokuma 18.13%
Goro Majima 16.75%

Tifa Lockhart 50.00%
Mega Man X 49.82%
Mewtwo 41.90%
Revolver Ocelot 31.48%
GlaDOS 31.44%
King Dedede 31.17%
Geno 26.81%
Isabelle 19.28%

Division 8

Sephiroth 50.00%
Amaterasu 38.63%
Captain Falcon 35.07%
Lara Croft 34.84%
Albert Wesker 29.72%
Richter Belmont 27.78%
Metal Man 22.37%
Draven 9.16%

Ryu 50.00%
KOS-MOS 34.93%
Commander Shepard 33.45%
King K. Rool 32.63%
Ellie 31.82%
Lloyd Irving 31.56%
Aqua 29.77%
Quiet 21.37%

Looks like assuming Ocelot and GlaDOS were equal pretty much predicted the match...!
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ZenOfThunder posted...

Holy shit every Tifa hentai rally has like 200 upvotes, including two new ones on ahegao and bondage

I apologize to moonroof, it was I who didnt check my facts

There are several semi-successful porn rallies for Tifa

Its all good homie

A compilation of people from hentai subreddits commenting that they like X more
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

davidponte posted...

It's hilarious that BT clings to this idea that there was Tifa vote stuffing because someone figured out that all of the Peruvian VPNs had already voted for X, which would imply the opposite.

It makes even less sense when you recall that O Fool had already brought this up much earlier in the contest and gave a reasonable explanation as to why he came across this information.

None of that fits the narrative, though.

Let's be clear here, this guy was trying to vote stuff and realized that his VPN IP addresses had already voted. He then made up the excuse that he was using Peruvian IP addresses (unfounded) and the fact that MMX was winning handily in Peru (which any contest veteran knows about Mega Man's dominance in South/Latin America) to assume that those addresses voted for X.

So the first thing to note, is this person LITERALLY ADMITTED he was trying to use a VPN to stuff votes for Tifa.

Second thing to note is that he has no proof the votes were registered for X.

Third thing to note, is this is entirely hearsay, and he could be making it up.

Nothing about the results from South America indicate any kind of foul play, just like the mirrored results from Europe don't either.

I could entertain this idea if it wasn't for the fact that the same guy came into the stats topic literally weeks ago first mentioning the Peruvian VPN thing.

This wasn't something he attempted to do and figure out during the Tifa/MMX match, it was something everyone who was in the topic at the time already knew about, and he was merely mentioning that he had checked those some VPNs again.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Ryu 50.00%
KOS-MOS 34.93%
Aqua 33.75%
Commander Shepard 33.45%
King K. Rool 32.63%
Ellie 31.82%
Lloyd Irving 31.56%
Aqua 29.77%
Quiet 21.37%

Who is the second Aqua?
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

At this point who fucking cares, yet another contest has been ruined by the rally crew. Even with the registered voter bonus, these contests are impossible to run in 2018, with all the porno subreddits and shitty Twitch streamers that offer an endless pool of votes for the degenerates on Board 8 like ExTha and Leon.

Yeah Leon, you fuckin' degenerate.
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

davidponte posted...

It's hilarious that BT clings to this idea that there was Tifa vote stuffing because someone figured out that all of the Peruvian VPNs had already voted for X, which would imply the opposite.

It makes even less sense when you recall that O Fool had already brought this up much earlier in the contest and gave a reasonable explanation as to why he came across this information.

None of that fits the narrative, though.

Let's be clear here, this guy was trying to vote stuff and realized that his VPN IP addresses had already voted. He then made up the excuse that he was using Peruvian IP addresses (unfounded) and the fact that MMX was winning handily in Peru (which any contest veteran knows about Mega Man's dominance in South/Latin America) to assume that those addresses voted for X.

So the first thing to note, is this person LITERALLY ADMITTED he was trying to use a VPN to stuff votes for Tifa.

Second thing to note is that he has no proof the votes were registered for X.

Third thing to note, is this is entirely hearsay, and he could be making it up.

Nothing about the results from South America indicate any kind of foul play, just like the mirrored results from Europe don't either.

Except that he literally brought up this same point about Peruvian VPNs prior to all this happening and it was something we had known was highly suspicious for a while since Peru always voted very heavily one 2ay for every match.

You're so delusional in twisting everything to fit your narrative.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Who is the second Aqua?

woah kh3 spoilers
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oh wait I forgot to delete the first Aqua row from the 5 minute X-Stats

LOL me
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LeonhartFour posted...

lso I'm filling out the trend charts right now

Tails and Ammy got a noticeable bump with the day vote but KOS-MOS did nothing?

The hentai voters like furry hentai better than robot hentai.
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IRL picture of Leon and I plotting our porn-rally before the match yesterday


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I don't even know what's going on here
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swirIdude posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

lso I'm filling out the trend charts right now

Tails and Ammy got a noticeable bump with the day vote but KOS-MOS did nothing?

The hentai voters like furry hentai better than robot hentai.

i have never looked myself but i thought there was a rather infamous Sonic community that would fully explain Tails getting a fair boost.
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KamikazePotato posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

Tails and Ammy got a noticeable bump with the day vote but KOS-MOS did nothing?

This is lowkey the funniest part of the match.

Points.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Every.

Close.

Match.

2013-07-12 02:04:14

Draven - 20.85%
Chie - 35.12%
Jak - 44.02%
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looking at the vote totals we've got a noticeable bump compared to previous matches

not sure if it's rally spillover or just the reduction to 2 matches per day causing more people to vote since they don't have to pick as many matches
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Clicking two more buttons makes people not vote really

I think by this point, we're far enough into the match that rally spillover has died down.
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If you don't like hentai rallies, we've got TWO WORDS FOR YA
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LeonhartFour posted...

looking at the vote totals we've got a noticeable bump compared to previous matches

not sure if it's rally spillover or just the reduction to 2 matches per day causing more people to vote since they don't have to pick as many matches

There's certainly rally spillover. The rally posts on the subreddits are still getting upvoted so there should be people coming in through there.
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Why didn't you fuckers do this for 2B.

She may already have more porn than Tifa.
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No way man Tifa had a 20 year headstart

LapisLazuli posted...

Why didn't you fuckers do this for 2B.

She may already have more porn than Tifa.

Listen man, you're just as capable of going to a subreddit.

I can't do EVERYTHING for you people.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

LapisLazuli posted...

Why didn't you fuckers do this for 2B.

She may already have more porn than Tifa.

Listen man, you're just as capable of going to a subreddit.

I can't do EVERYTHING for you people.

Not everyone frequents hentai websites as much as you do. I wouldn't know the first thing of where to rally perverts (except that weird 3D overwatch porn that shows up on PornHub all the time)
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handsomeboy2012 posted...

Clicking two more buttons makes people not vote really

people are more likely to not vote if they have to vote for all four if there's one or two matches they don't actually care about sure
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man BT really isn't letting this go huh
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Regarding the Peru VPN stuff - while the Peru percent may indicate the attempted VPN stuffing attempts worked, thats not necessarily the case.

X was over 90% against Ocelot in Peru. Was anybody actually stuffing that blowout...? He seems to do well in South America in general.

Also this site seems to have good anti-stuffing measures. It may be that it catches the large majority of VPN votes.

Either because they arent fully hiding that its a VPN, because the stuffer didnt properly clear cookies, or maybe Allen has a database of VPN IPs to ignore, etc.

LapisLazuli posted...

Why didn't you f***ers do this for 2B.

She may already have more porn than Tifa.

She was up against a bootleg Bowsette. Huge backfire chance imo.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Not everyone frequents hentai websites as much as you do. I wouldn't know the first thing of where to rally perverts (except that weird 3D overwatch porn that shows up on PornHub all the time)

Oh you wouldn't know?

Your ass better CAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLL SOMEBODDYYYYYYYYYY
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creativename posted...

Regarding the Peru VPN stuff - while the Peru percent may indicate the attempted VPN stuffing attempts worked, thats not necessarily the case.

X was over 90% against Ocelot in Peru. Was anybody actually stuffing that blowout...? He seems to do well in South America in general.

Also this site seems to have good anti-stuffing measures. It may be that it catches the large majority of VPN votes.

Either because they arent fully hiding that its a VPN, because the stuffer didnt properly clear cookies, or maybe Allen has a database of VPN IPs to ignore, etc.

Indeed. Look at any poll involving a Mega Man character and look at the map of South America. Here's a great example of why MMX was dominating Peru:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5359-20-years-later-have-you-ever-played-mega-man-x
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creativename posted...

Regarding the Peru VPN stuff - while the Peru percent may indicate the attempted VPN stuffing attempts worked, thats not necessarily the case.

X was over 90% against Ocelot in Peru. Was anybody actually stuffing that blowout...? He seems to do well in South America in general.

Also this site seems to have good anti-stuffing measures. It may be that it catches the large majority of VPN votes.

Either because they arent fully hiding that its a VPN, because the stuffer didnt properly clear cookies, or maybe Allen has a database of VPN IPs to ignore, etc.

Also to point out: India's 88.24% for Tifa in that match, which is a more extreme percentage than Peru's 86.36% for X. Does anyone thinks there's VPN stuffing for Tifa in India?
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ExThaNemesis posted...

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Not everyone frequents hentai websites as much as you do. I wouldn't know the first thing of where to rally perverts (except that weird 3D overwatch porn that shows up on PornHub all the time)

Oh you wouldn't know?

Your ass better CAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLL SOMEBODDYYYYYYYYYY

So 1990's wrestling quotes and hentai. ExTha, are you sure you are not Tom Hanks' character in Big?
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Clearly Extha is a man of culture
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LeonhartFour posted...

man BT really isn't letting this go huh

He's never going to.

Expect some kind of bad, "Fails of"-tier joke to come out of this which he will reuse ad nausem for the next 10+ years.
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squexa posted...

Also to point out: India's also 88.24% for Tifa in that match, which is a more extreme percentage than X is Peru's 86.36% for X. Does anyone thinks there's VPN stuffing for Tifa in India?

88.24% could just be 15-2 (or a multiple thereof.) I'm a bit behind the Peru voting saga, but I assume the math was run on it and it was determined that we knew a fairly high number of votes came from there if it ever became a thing to talk about. (For instance 86.36% could come from 19-3, but I'm assuming the % at some earlier parts in the match suggested it had to be more than 22 votes if this is a talking point)
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I'm definitely not pro rally, but when I saw Tifas lead crumble and a 1.7k viewed MMX reddit rally post appeared, easily the most successful attempt at a rally this contest, all bets were off
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