Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 203: We Met at Borders

(+) Yeah! (+)

Jakyl25 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

That switches my percentages some. I'd say Tester by 1 and McSally by 1. I might actually swap both of those by Election Day. In particular, I think the Montana libertarian dropping out of the race is really big.

I dont think libertarian voters just do what theyre told though. I bet most just stay home

Also worth noting that he is still going to be on the ballot
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The libertarian party of Montana is not at all happy with this, so you may be right. They were blind sided and feel like their candidate (who's name isn't important enough to remember) was just doing this for name recognition.

Also, they have almost as many things they disagree with Rosendale as they do with Tester. So you may be right. It is also too late to get names taken off of the ballot IIRC (for example, Walker's name is still on the Alaskan ballot which is something that may hurt Begich).

BUT I do think this definitely helps Rosendale's odds. That seat is definitely more in reach for Republicans than it was before he dropped out.
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https://twitter.com/jacobawohl/status/1058017461944176640?s=21

He is the gift that keeps on giving
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Equating thrown rocks with guns is uhh...

Like...yeah, thrown rocks are dangerous, but guns are weapons from 2018 AD, and thrown rocks are weapons that have been around since 2,192,851 BC. Bit of a technology mismatch.

At least equate guns with like...a sling or something. If people are hurling carefully chosen ammunition rocks out of a sling, ok, yeah, that could easily kill. This is how David killed Goliath; slings are real weapons, they're dangerous, and they can and do kill.

But if people are just picking up random rocks off the ground and throwing them with their arms...come on.
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IIRC, by law the military can't assist with the enforcement of immigration laws anyway. They can provide logistical support and advice but that's about it.

The whole thing is well... I was going to say farce, but I think some of the comments made make that sound too flippant.
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Jakyl25 posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

Also notable: https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1058098276606590977?s=20

Trump Extremely Bad

America extremely bad

possibly even more now than usual
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Prelimiary predix:

R 220 D 215
R 55 D 43 I 2
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red sox 777 posted...

Prelimiary predix:

R 220 D 215
R 55 D 43 I 2

What. Lol.

53 R 47 D
D 228 R 217

That is what I see shaking out.
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xp1337 posted...

IIRC, by law the military can't assist with the enforcement of immigration laws anyway. They can provide logistical support and advice but that's about it.

The whole thing is well... I was going to say farce, but I think some of the comments made make that sound too flippant.

Well given the level of respect the Trump Admin has shown for existing Federal Law it's all abit of an unknown.

What I want to know is what people who support the move THINK is happening. Like do they WANT the wanton slaughter of unarmed refugees?
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xp1337 posted...

IIRC, by law the military can't assist with the enforcement of immigration laws anyway. They can provide logistical support and advice but that's about it.

The whole thing is well... I was going to say farce, but I think some of the comments made make that sound too flippant.

I believe the military can protect the border from incursion and that would not fall under immigration, but I hope to God we don't start shooting up people.
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Eddv posted...

xp1337 posted...

IIRC, by law the military can't assist with the enforcement of immigration laws anyway. They can provide logistical support and advice but that's about it.

The whole thing is well... I was going to say farce, but I think some of the comments made make that sound too flippant.

Well given the level of respect the Trump Admin has shown for existing Federal Law it's all abit of an unknown.

What I want to know is what people who support the move THINK is happening. Like do they WANT the wanton slaughter of unarmed refugees?

Yes

In other news, project veritas hit piece on beto is out.

Them early voter numbers must have the gop scared. It sucks these videos are often effective at their goal and only proven to be slander too late for it to matter.

Haven't seen the whole thing so, who knows. Maybe it's real this time. Given their track record, though (literally being court ordered to pay out 100 grand after losing a slander lawsuit),


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pxlated posted...

Eddv posted...

xp1337 posted...

IIRC, by law the military can't assist with the enforcement of immigration laws anyway. They can provide logistical support and advice but that's about it.

The whole thing is well... I was going to say farce, but I think some of the comments made make that sound too flippant.

Well given the level of respect the Trump Admin has shown for existing Federal Law it's all abit of an unknown.

What I want to know is what people who support the move THINK is happening. Like do they WANT the wanton slaughter of unarmed refugees?

Yes

In other news, project veritas hit piece on beto is out.

Them early voter numbers must have 5he gop scared. It sucks these videos are often effective at their goal and only proven to be slander too late for it to matter

No numbers in Texas have Republicans scared. Lol. Didn't yinz learn that enough during the presidential campaign with pipedreams of turning Texas blue?
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Where did i say i expected beto to win? Or even had hope?

Oh that's right, I didn't.
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It's project veritas dude. Exactly 0% chance it's real and legitimate.

Just commenting on the fact that the whole veritas m.o. is to put out heavily edited footage to sway political outcomes in their favor, and this wouldn't happen if they thought cruz was a lock.
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Beto has in the last week moved to within a standard polling error of victory. Indicators that young voting is up is probably the most disconcerting part as I noted before - they simply dont have a very large 18-25 crosstab on their likely voter polling base and for good reason that group tends to not vote very heavily especially not in midterms.

It would still be a hell of a surprise if he won but he's just on the edge of possible and thats why veritas is doing this
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pxlated posted...

Where did i say i expected beto to win? Or even had hope?

Oh that's right, I didn't.

Let's re-read what you wrote. Then re-read what I wrote.

1. You said then going after Beto must mean the GOP are scared of the early voting numbers.

2. I said, the GOP are not scared of any numbers out of Texas. Didn't yinz learn this last time?

So uh ????
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K thx
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Corrik posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Prelimiary predix:

R 220 D 215
R 55 D 43 I 2

What. Lol.

53 R 47 D
D 221 R 214

That is what I see shaking out.

I really dont think his prediction is that unreasonable. Thats holding what they have plus ND MO IN FL. Thats entirely doable as all those races are close.

And somewhere in the range of 220 to 230 sounds entirely reasonable in the house. 215 only requires a handful of races to have bad polling, which is entirely possible with how little most races have been polled.

I think your guess is more reasonable but his isnt crazy.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Corrik posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Prelimiary predix:

R 220 D 215
R 55 D 43 I 2

What. Lol.

53 R 47 D
D 221 R 214

That is what I see shaking out.

I really dont think his prediction is that unreasonable. Thats holding what they have plus ND MO IN FL. Thats entirely doable as all those races are close.

And somewhere in the range of 220 to 230 sounds entirely reasonable in the house. 215 only requires a handful of races to have bad polling, which is entirely possible with how little most races have been polled.

I think your guess is more reasonable but his isnt crazy.

I think 55 is absolutely crazy for the Senate.
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Oh I guess I will lock in my picks

Senate is a push GOP flips ND, Dems flip AZ

This has Donnely, Tester, Manchin, Nelson, McCaskill all winning tight races which feels right to me.

House: Dems +40 (as in net gain of) but this is a shot in the dark because of scarcity of polling data and the size of the Democratic Tail possible given how many races are in play
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I feel much better about the 55 in the Senate than the 220 in the House, actually. The thing about these races is they are correlated - if one Republican wins the probability of the next one winning, knowing the first one won, goes up a lot. This is the only reason Democrats have a chance of taking the Senate at all. If the races were all independent events, Republicans would be virtually guaranteed a gain of several seats simply from the map being historically bad for Democrats. How bad? IIRC, there are 11 seats where the incumbent Senator's party lost the last presidential election in their state......and 10 of them are up for reelection this year. All of those seats are held by Democrats.

The House polling is making me nervous, I just hope that the national polls are the way they are because Dems are going to pull out landslide wins in California, New York, etc. with high turnout there, leaving them just short in race after race across the swing districts.
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I hope you guys are right, but I have this feeling some of us are going to be very disappointed come Tuesday.
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Corrik posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Corrik posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Prelimiary predix:

R 220 D 215
R 55 D 43 I 2

What. Lol.

53 R 47 D
D 221 R 214

That is what I see shaking out.

I really dont think his prediction is that unreasonable. Thats holding what they have plus ND MO IN FL. Thats entirely doable as all those races are close.

And somewhere in the range of 220 to 230 sounds entirely reasonable in the house. 215 only requires a handful of races to have bad polling, which is entirely possible with how little most races have been polled.

I think your guess is more reasonable but his isnt crazy.

I think 55 is absolutely crazy for the Senate.

55 is about as realistic as 51, honestly. Totally in the realm of possibility and it just requires one side to get a clean sweep on all the close races. Polling doesnt even have to be off one standard deviation for that to occur either way in those races.
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I think 50-53 GOP seats represents the expected range.

Democrats would need some unbelievable luck to actually take the Senate and GOP would need same to hit 55
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Corrik posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Corrik posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Prelimiary predix:

R 220 D 215
R 55 D 43 I 2

What. Lol.

53 R 47 D
D 221 R 214

That is what I see shaking out.

I really dont think his prediction is that unreasonable. Thats holding what they have plus ND MO IN FL. Thats entirely doable as all those races are close.

And somewhere in the range of 220 to 230 sounds entirely reasonable in the house. 215 only requires a handful of races to have bad polling, which is entirely possible with how little most races have been polled.

I think your guess is more reasonable but his isnt crazy.

I think 55 is absolutely crazy for the Senate.

55 is about as realistic as 51, honestly. Totally in the realm of possibility and it just requires one side to get a clean sweep on all the close races. Polling doesnt even have to be off one standard deviation for that to occur either way in those races.

Yeah I am basically just giving every race to the incumbent.

AZ I see as a pure toss up just because the higher quality polls all have Sinema up while all the lower quality ones have McSally and its otherwise just reading tea leaves in that race
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For those who like predictions...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/
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Eddv posted...

I think 50-53 GOP seats represents the expected range.

Democrats would need some unbelievable luck to actually take the Senate and GOP would need same to hit 55

You're actually right if you go according to 538. 16.8% chance for 51 and 6.6% for 55 (using polls only).

I don't think republicans holding AZ and NV and winning FL, IN, MO, and ND sounds all that crazy though. RCP had it at +4 republicans just last week, and while they use a different model than 538 I don't think their predictions are entirely off base.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live-october-jobs-report-2-112742973.html
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red sox 777 posted...

The House polling is making me nervous, I just hope that the national polls are the way they are because Dems are going to pull out landslide wins in California, New York, etc. with high turnout there, leaving them just short in race after race across the swing districts.

I mean, a lot of the swing house districts are in California and New York. (I live in a district that is currently represented by a republican that is currently a tossup or lean D).

If people purely vote in their best interest, most of the R controlled seats in California and New York should flip, cause the tax bill explicitly screwed over Cali and NY. (The republican house representative in my seat was super apologetic about the bill and resigned because of it; we don't have an incumbent running now).

Literally if the Ds flip all the red districts in Cali and NY, that's enough to take the house unless Rs make gains elsewhere.
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Corrik posted...

xp1337 posted...

IIRC, by law the military can't assist with the enforcement of immigration laws anyway. They can provide logistical support and advice but that's about it.

The whole thing is well... I was going to say farce, but I think some of the comments made make that sound too flippant.

I believe the military can protect the border from incursion and that would not fall under immigration, but I hope to God we don't start shooting up people.

Even if they throw rocks?
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https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/414450-fbi-investigating-washington-state-rep-for-manifesto-urging-all-males

Washington State Representative calls for the 'killing of all males who don't follow biblical law'. Says it was 'taken out of context'
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Gee, I wonder what the implication is there by only saying to kill all males.

Hope he rots!
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I can't wait for it to be taken out of context to call it an evil feminist manifesto
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Eddv posted...

I think 50-53 GOP seats represents the expected range.

Democrats would need some unbelievable luck to actually take the Senate and GOP would need same to hit 55

You're actually right if you go according to 538. 16.8% chance for 51 and 6.6% for 55 (using polls only).

I don't think republicans holding AZ and NV and winning FL, IN, MO, and ND sounds all that crazy though. RCP had it at +4 republicans just last week, and while they use a different model than 538 I don't think their predictions are entirely off base.

I actually use Entens projector.

He Believes we're going to have a net change of GOP+1 Basically that the dems will lose TWO of NV FL IN AZ MO but isnt willing to say which and like I buy that I just think Dems will lose just one anyway.
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metroid composite posted...

red sox 777 posted...

The House polling is making me nervous, I just hope that the national polls are the way they are because Dems are going to pull out landslide wins in California, New York, etc. with high turnout there, leaving them just short in race after race across the swing districts.

I mean, a lot of the swing house districts are in California and New York. (I live in a district that is currently represented by a republican that is currently a tossup or lean D).

If people purely vote in their best interest, most of the R controlled seats in California and New York should flip, cause the tax bill explicitly screwed over Cali and NY. (The republican house representative in my seat was super apologetic about the bill and resigned because of it; we don't have an incumbent running now).

Literally if the Ds flip all the red districts in Cali and NY, that's enough to take the house unless Rs make gains elsewhere.

If they were voting in their best interest, they'd vote for a change in their state governments. It's about time the federal government stopped subsidizing the highest state taxes in the country by giving discounts on federal taxes that are directly proportional to how much tax the state charges. I live in California too, so the tax bill would hurt me too if I had massive itemized deductions (I saw an analysis of it that showed that most people in CA, even those with SALT and mortgage/property tax deductions, are still getting a net tax cut. There is one sweet spot right around $600,000 income where it becomes slightly negative - before that the loss of the deductions from state income tax isn't high enough to nullify the federal tax cut, after that the gains from the lower federal tax rates on your income make you a winner even with the loss of the deductions).

I don't feel sorry for people making $600,000 a year who are getting a slight tax increase, which would be a big tax cut if their state government didn't impose the highest state income taxes in the country. I mean, high state taxes might be okay if the infrastructure was good, but CA has ancient, decaying, downright bad infrastructure. The LAX Airport is less of an airport and more of a continuous traffic jam - an embarrassment to the United States. The state doesn't even pay much toward the University of California system anymore - like 10-15% of the UC budget I think. I really don't get what they're spending all that tax money on, other than prisons (I know they've opened 20+ prisons in the time they've opened 1 new UC campus).

I blame the referendum system and the absurd property tax system for these problems. Rich people with very valuable houses in CA are paying the equivalent of 0.1% property tax, if it were assessed based on the actual value of their property. Meanwhile they force working class people to pay 9% state income tax, higher than the top rate in most states, and something like 9% sales tax on top of it. And then they complain that their deductions are being taken away. Good riddance.
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And of course, we should expect Republicans to favor rich people and landowners. That's what they do, that's what they advertise themselves as doing. So the fault for the parlous state of affairs in California, a deep blue state with a tax system designed squarely to benefit rich people who have gotten wealthy not through work, but through investment in real property, while imposing crushing taxes on everyone else above the poverty line (and, through sales tax, traffic tickets, etc. I would argue CA's effective tax rate on people below the poverty line is also way above national average), must lie with the Democrats.

They literally run the state without opposition and this is the system they have. I blame Democrats and I blame the voters.
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The Republican Party should offer charter flights from swing states into LAX, with tours of Skid Row. To show voters what could happen to them if they allow Democrats to take power where they are.
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red sox 777 posted...

The Republican Party should offer charter flights from swing states into LAX, with tours of Skid Row. To show voters what could happen to them if they allow Democrats to take power where they are.

We should just drive them by some stupid rich white people they will idolize and then they can vote them for president.

The Democratic Party should offer flights to red sox's house so voters can see what happens to the mind of an individual after consuming only crayons for the better part of a year.
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One extra vote for every million you give to the homeless
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https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/1058421830837563392

BREAKING: Federal judge denies @realDonaldTrump's attempt to stop discovery process in "Emoluments Clause" lawsuit by DC/MD A.G.'s. Will allow AGs to get documents showing foreign-government customers at Trump Hotel D.C.
Story coming soon...

This seems like a really big deal.
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Peace___Frog posted...

https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/1058421830837563392

BREAKING: Federal judge denies @realDonaldTrump's attempt to stop discovery process in "Emoluments Clause" lawsuit by DC/MD A.G.'s. Will allow AGs to get documents showing foreign-government customers at Trump Hotel D.C.
Story coming soon...

This seems like a really big deal.

It will be a bigger deal if the house changes hands but yes
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Wohl and Burkman conference.

They're doubling down lol.
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Peace___Frog posted...

https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/1058421830837563392

BREAKING: Federal judge denies @realDonaldTrump's attempt to stop discovery process in "Emoluments Clause" lawsuit by DC/MD A.G.'s. Will allow AGs to get documents showing foreign-government customers at Trump Hotel D.C.
Story coming soon...

This seems like a really big deal.

https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/1058424100652285962

trump owns trump
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The closer we get to Election Day, the more pessimistic I get about the senate, but the more optimistic I get about governor's races. I really think one of this really red states is going to do something weird and elect a democrat. I have no idea which one, but I feel like democrats are going to capture one state they absolutely should not.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/governors-update-democrats-could-win-in-some-very-red-states/
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Suprak the Stud posted...

The Democratic Party should offer flights to red sox's house so voters can see what happens to the mind of an individual after consuming only crayons for the better part of a year.

My daughter used to eat Crayons. She never went red sox, though. (Fun fact: Crayons have 150 Calories)
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Predictions (may update before Tuesday):

House: +40 D
Senate: +0 D
Gubernatorial: +7 D
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Soup Rack, is crazy Sinema gonna win Arizona?
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my predix: GOP holds on senate but gets hilariously fucked in the house to a degree we didn't see coming

I don't feel like giving specific numbers just going with a general impression