Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 203: We Met at Borders

(+) Yeah! (+)

Paratroopa1 posted...

my predix: GOP holds on senate but gets hilariously fucked in the house to a degree we didn't see coming

I don't feel like giving specific numbers just going with a general impression

I mean, we already know they have 200 seats basically lined up. How fucked could they possibly get.
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Dancedreamer posted...

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/414450-fbi-investigating-washington-state-rep-for-manifesto-urging-all-males

Washington State Representative calls for the 'killing of all males who don't follow biblical law'. Says it was 'taken out of context'

Ah, Matt Shea. This article didn't even mention him by name, which is a mistake, because he's a dangerous lunatic. Here's another article about him:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/matt-shea-washington-state-liberty-744850/

Corrik posted...

Soup Rack, is crazy Sinema gonna win Arizona?

Arizona is the one I'm least sure about. Like polling is crazy for that. In the past two weeks, there have been two Harris polls showing McSally with leads of like 5 and 7. Every other poll (including a Fox News poll) shows the race much closer and there are more overall with Sinema in the lead.

My gut says McSally by less than 1. Mostly due to the partisan lean of the state and CANTOR score on 538. I also thought Sinema would be hurt more by some of the stuff that came out in the past couple weeks, but if anything (outside of the Harris polls) her numbers look better now than before.

It is a very strange race. I thought this would be one of the easier holds/pick ups for R's this cycle of the competitive states.
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That link has nothing to do with feminism or protests of any kind.
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As long as they hold the Senate the margin in the House doesn't matter. They can't pass anything on their own.
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seems like those rapists got arrested and are being prosecuted which is exactly what should happen so there's nothing to protest about
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I cannot figure out for the life of me what Ulti was attempting with that post.

Did he ACTUALLY just post the wrong link?
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LapisLazuli posted...

I cannot figure out for the life of me what Ulti was attempting with that post.

Did he ACTUALLY just post the wrong link?

My best guess is how feminists earlier this year were saying a study that said something like 75% of all women in college or something are sexually assaulted at some point and feminists/liberals were talking about the rape culture of society.

Then later in the year a scandinavian country had a study that said something like 50% of all rapes in the country were committed by refugees or muslim immigrants and liberals kept saying how the study was obviously false because the numbers were ridiculous and couldn't possibly be true.

I guess this somehow plays into that or something.
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did ulti make a men get raped too post or something
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no it's more like a "some Syrians raped a white lady so feminists should want closed borders" post

as if those dudes wouldn't just be raping Syrian women instead then
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MoogleKupo141 posted...

no it's more like a "some Syrians raped a white lady so feminists should want closed borders" post

as if those dudes wouldn't just be raping Syrian women instead then

Isn't the implication of those posts that all Syrians (let's be real...he means Muslims) are violent rapists based on the actions of a few assholes?

Yet...LIBERALS are whiny and reactionary for being pissed at waves of white guys committing mass violence and hate crimes. Sure, okay.
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that makes the "that has nothing to do with feminism" posts make even more sense then

quite the blatant racism, yikes
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No surprise here.
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red sox 777 posted...

As long as they hold the Senate the margin in the House doesn't matter. They can't pass anything on their own.

When you have the presidency you actually care more about having the House and Senate than you care about having only one.

With just the Senate and the presidency there is very little the GOP can accomplish over the next two years. See also: Like six years of the Obama presidency where they didn't have both branches of Congress.

The reason you care more, of course, is you get blamed for nothing getting done regardless of whose fault it is.
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Yeah getting the House is important because Dems can a) stop a lot of the bad shit that Trump would do and b) start investigating all of the countless illegal things that Trump and other members of his administration are doing.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Yeah getting the House is important because Dems can a) stop a lot of the bad shit that Trump would do and b) start investigating all of the countless illegal things that Trump and other members of his administration are doing.

Bingo.

They get chairmanship of every committee and the power to pull the wool back on whatever's been found so far.
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Maybe there actually was a Taylor Swift turnout boost...!

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1058532803263062019
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I've been saying for awhile that if there's a systematic polling error in play this year it'll be underestimating who actually votes in the likely voter screenings. Likely in favor of the 18-30 crowd.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Maybe there actually was a Taylor Swift turnout boost...!

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1058532803263062019

Wow most of those numbers are fantastic.

But, uh.

That's slightly concerning for FL.
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Like those TN, GA, TX numbers are phenomenal.

But what if Dems are mobilizing the youth vote in the wrong places? I think Abrams could win so those GA numbers are amazing. But TN and TX are still long shots. That sort of turnout is needed in MT, MO, IN, FL, AZ, NV most. There is definitely better turnout in AZ and NV, but you want that same sort of 400% increase to really feel good about yourself. It could be too little in TN and TX, but could've made an actual difference in the real toss up states.
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Keep in mind a lot comes into play in these numbers. Most notably, how high is turnout usually in any given state (in raw values and percentages of eligible voters), how indicative of outcome is the early vote in a given state, etc...
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And it is also worth noting:

But those voters represent just 8 percent of the overall electorate that has voted so far. Seniors, those over the age of 65, represent more than a third of the electorate; among the oldest voters, 473,000 have showed up to vote already, a 78 percent increase over 2014 levels.

Senior votes are up to. Not anywhere near that 400%, but with the youth turnout not as robust in FL, it could easily be offset.
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I could imagine the FL and MI youth votes being better in 2014 than the other states so they'd have smaller boosts with commensurate increases in enthusiasm (since those states are typically more competitive and I think younger voters are especially less likely to vote if they think the outcome isn't in question), but I haven't actually looked up the numbers to confirm.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

I could imagine the FL and MI youth votes being better in 2014 than the other states so they'd have smaller boosts with commensurate increases in enthusiasm (since those states are typically more competitive and I think younger voters are especially less likely to vote if they think the outcome isn't in question), but I haven't actually looked up the numbers to confirm.

I was thinking the same thing - also, have to consider what the age demographics in the states actually are, in other words how many new people are of voting age for the first time in each state?

UltimaterializerX posted...

CelesMyUserName posted...

racism

Leftists have 100% devalued this accusation. It's meaningless now.

Says the dude literally talking about Democrats being racist like yesterday.

Too obvious.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

LordoftheMorons posted...

Maybe there actually was a Taylor Swift turnout boost...!

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1058532803263062019

Wow most of those numbers are fantastic.

But, uh.

That's slightly concerning for FL.

Gotta remember that the Tallahassee area and the Panhandle are still reeling from a major disaster and that turnout is expected to be depressed overall in Florida as a result (and in a mostly Republican area to boot so naturally Scott is seeing about undoingncertain antibdemocratic moves there)
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UltimaterializerX posted...

One Kavanaugh accuser admitted her entire story was made up for attention.

Doing some googling...this was the anonymous letter about a car rape that never got any traction and which never got much reporting on it.
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You know, I bet Christine Blase Ford is the one that assassinated Antonin Scalia. It just makes sense.
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metroid composite posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

One Kavanaugh accuser admitted her entire story was made up for attention.

Doing some googling...this was the anonymous letter about a car rape that never got any traction and which never got much reporting on it.

So was the justiciary committee right to not believe all women?
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HarrietTubgirl posted...

So was the justiciary committee right to not believe all women?

I mean, sure, they shouldn't just believe anonymous letters with no follow up investigation, and no prior to 2018 witnesses who can confirm that this person's story has not changed. "Believe women" just means "take accusations seriously until you have more evidence one way or the other. Don't just assume a sexual abuse victim is lying just because you like the person who might have committed sexual abuse." The problem is that people often don't follow that advice. Something like 30 women accused Bill Cosby of sexual assault, and nobody wanted to believe it for years, decades, because Bill Cosby still gave them a warm fuzzy feeling. Now he was found guilty in court. This is what people mean by "believe women"--don't just dismiss all complaints cause you think the guy is really nice and wouldn't do that.

Also worth noting that false accusations tend to follow a specific pattern; they tend to come from people with a history of lying, and they tend to be sensational (like "he raped me on a bed of glass") and tend to not put other people in the room.

Given that...there were at least two allegations against Kavanaugh that did have corroborating witnesses prior to 2018 (Deborah Ramirez, and Christine Blasey Ford). Both of which fit none of the patterns of false accusations (putting other people in the room, not sensationalized, coming from people who were known as trustworthy).
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It gets worse. I've seen people side with the likes of Cosby and Harvey Weinstein not by defending them, but by scapegoating the accusers as "failed actresses" or dumb crap that anyone can quickly debunk.

The more I find out about Weinstein the more he reminds me of Trump. Including both of them seeming to be awfully good at mob psychology.
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Those early voting numbers look really good on that site Ulti linked.

Lots of 65+ being down 5-10% from this time last year.
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metroid composite posted...

Given that...there were at least two allegations against Kavanaugh that did have corroborating witnesses prior to 2018 (Deborah Ramirez, and Christine Blasey Ford).

There were literally no corroborating witnesses by any definition. Their accounts were just as credible as the anonymous letter.
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There were a dozen corroborating witnesses that Brett frequently sauced to angry belligerence, despite his testimony.

But none for the specific assault, which makes sense when you consider that the only witness was implicated, and to everyone else at the party it probably wasnt very memorable.
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The worst part is that Trump goes fearmongering like this and it works because somehow loads of people are already afraid of stupid crap like women wanting to upend society and rule over men. Like, what?
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UltimaterializerX posted...

I will add that Kavanaugh felt like he lied for half of his. Dudes not a rapist but he is clearly a raging alcoholic.

How clever that you deduced this from testimony by a man who repeatedly insisted on his admiration for beer like it was his child.
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"the dude's a total liar but I'll believe him over a woman"
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Do you guys think if the average male penis size was bigger there would be less misogynists.
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No because then men would still want bigger
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The worst part is, I don't think Trump is even remotely aware of the current "culture wars" which are playing a part in his fearmongering working so well.
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LinkMarioSamus posted...

The worst part is, I don't think Trump is even remotely aware of the current "culture wars" which are playing a part in his fearmongering working so well.

...What

That's literally why he does it, because he knows "it works"
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https://reut.rs/2qtxzhG

At least there's a token effort being made to preserve the integrity of elections right.
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