Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

(+) Yeah! (+)

Round 2 Charizard vs. Bowser

Moltars Analysis

Charizard
Round 1 - 52.80% vs. Terra Branford

Bowser
Round 1 - 77.39% vs. Gordon Freeman

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3845

How times have changed. Charizard had everything going for him that day, but last I checked theres no Pokemon game coming out today.

Charizard looks like the big underdog after those Round 1 performances. Of all the Pokemon, Charizard easily looked the worst in his match. Now, that number on Terra could turn out to be pretty good in hindsight if Charizard can win here.

Bowser tho

BOWSER

Dude went and put up 77% on Freeman, who historically isnt complete fodder in these contests. I can believe that Gordon is weaker this year, but some credit has to go to Bowser there as well.

In a debated match between two characters who are thought of as around equal, and one looks disappointing going in while the other looks impressive, common sense says to go with the more impressive looking one. Charizard could win this if Terra is legit and masked Charizards strength, but that seems like a jumping through hoops excuse for that performance. Bowser straight up looked better last round, so Im sticking with him here.

Moltars Bracket: Bowser

Moltars Prediction: Bowser 53%

transiences Analysis

I just can't square this match in my head. Charizard can't be as weak as he looked in round 1. There has to be something else. Sometimes you just have to accept that maybe the character isn't as good as you think -- but when the only evidence is one round, against a character who's always thought to be worth more than she was, after a game contest where CT and FF6 looked so so good.. yeah, I just can't accept what I've seen.

My one saving grace was if Kefka just blew up Bomberman and that isn't really happening just yet. There's the possibility that our 'icon' type characters are just worth way more than we expect, and the results certainly prove that.. Pac-Man looks like a god, Crash is threatening Big Boss, Spyro, Simon, Alucard.. I mean, I could buy that, but I'm taking several leaps through hoops in order to justify what could also just be the truth: that maybe Charizard is just a fraud.

But Pikachu! Oh wait, another icon type character. Okay, I'm taking Bowser here. But I'm not going high! I don't trust Bowser, or any villain, in this contest. I feel like you have to be truly playable to make a difference.

transience's prediction: Bowser with 54.54%
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Leonharts Analysis

I imagine Bowser is the big favorite here after their round 1 performances, but that win over Gordon probably isnt worth as much as it initially appeared, and Terra is probably just legitimately strong, too. Charizard won this match back in 2010, but he had a couple of advantages then that he wont have now. There wont be a big Pokemon release on the day of the match, and he hasnt been building up a bandwagon either. Ive got Bowser in my bracket and I still think he wins, but I have no sense of what the percentages will be. Pokemon has generally been good at resisting SFF, so I dont think Bowser will go really high as a result, but he could win by a sizable margin and I wouldnt be surprised.

Leonharts Vote: Bowser

Leonharts Prediction: Bowser with 54.90%

Kleenexs Analysis

Rematch time. Immediately after their respective round 1 matches, this seemed like a slam-dunk win for Bowser. Charizard struggled with Terra, and Bowser made Gordon look like a dude who would lose to Tina Armstrong. After a few more things shook out over the course of Round 1 and early Round 2, it started to look like maybe Charizards performance wasnt so bad. Terra and Kefka might just have been legit, and PokeFEAR might still be real. Im unfortunately writing this without having advance knowledge of how Kefka and Red did in Round 2, but I think theyll both end up impressing.

Seeing Ganon flop in Round 2 after putting up one of the biggest blowouts in the contest is also making me pump the brakes on Bowser a bit here. Nintendos ability to blow out fodder doesnt always translate to strength in later rounds. I dont think Gordon is really fodder, but who knows at this point.

This is all adds up to a match thats probably really close. Im still leaning towards Bowser edging this one out in the end, but Im way less confident than I was a week ago.

Kleenexs Prediction: Bowser with 51%

Guests Analysis - Luster Soldier

After a poor round 1 showing from Charizard and good showing from Bowser, it might seem as though Bowser has this one locked up. Hold on everyone, we've got to look at these two round 1 matches more closely first. Charizard looked awful against Terra and people were suddenly calling Charizard a fraud, but the Kefka performance against L-Block seems to validate the idea that FFVI in general has gotten stronger on the site. So I'll call this a case of Terra boosting rather than Charizard dropping.

Bowser's round 1 performance was extremely impressive, blowing out Gordon more than 10% higher than the Oracle consensus pick. This result seems to be completely on Gordon dropping in strength, which is supported by realistic looking humans looking very bad in this contest. It does not appear to be a general Valve deboost since GlaDOS looked just fine against Mewtwo.

At the time of writing this, Sora/Red is getting to the point of being nearly out of reach for Sora to win. It's a good sign for Pokemon if Red can hold this lead for the rest of the match. All three of Pikachu/Charizard/Mewtwo would have no trouble beating Red since the fanbase likes the actual Pokemon more than the human characters. I think Bowser should be a slight favorite if only because he looked great in round 1 and Charizard didn't, but you really can't be confident in picking either one to win.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Bowser

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Bowser - 52.31%

Crew Consensus: Bowser gets his revenge.
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whoa, I thought you guys would be up closer to 60%
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Does this mean Charizard will win via crew curse?
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Bowser breaking 60% would be a form of crew curse
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Bowser with 60% is a curse Im willing to bear.
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transience posted...

whoa, I thought you guys would be up closer to 60%

nah I don't think any of us were overreacting to that Gordon performance once we had time to think it through and none of us really believe "Bowsette" is a thing that matters

I've been a believer that Charizard is a fraud for a long time, but Bowser also hasn't looked like a world beater in a contest since 2005 before that Gordon match.
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Wait a minute. Nobody picked Bowser with above 55%? Unless you believe that Bowser can't even break 60% against Terra? Yeah I know it is Pokemon but seriously? Man.
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Safer_777 posted...

Unless you believe that Bowser can't even break 60% against Terra?

I do believe Bowser can't break 60% against Terra

but I'm apparently the one person who has no problem believing Terra and Kefka are actually good now
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I think Kefka can be good and Bowser can still break 60% on Terra. then again, Chun Li just got 42% on Ganondorf so maybe not.
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I mean, Bowser can, of course. I'm just saying I wouldn't pick it at this point.

Now I am fully on board with Bowser destroying Charizard to the point that he breaks 60% on Terra, but I think that would say more about him than her.
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I am with the Zard myself even if he loses with more than 60% I will always remember my first pokemon ever!
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Round 2 Phoenix Wright vs. Ike

Moltars Analysis

Phoenix
Round 1 - 56.93% vs. Chris Redfield

Ike
Round 1 - 62.31% vs. Joel

This just seems like a match that would be close, and while I have Phoenix in my bracket, I...just dont know anymore.

They both did fine in Round 1, and neither performance screams obvious winner here. Phoenix has beaten Marth before, but Ike is stronger and theres a Smash boost lingering in the air. Going into the contest, I figured this would be a close Phoenix win, but after seeing all the Smash characters overperform, Im seeing this swing back in Ikes favor.

Moltars Bracket: Phoenix

Moltars Prediction: Ike 52%

transiences Analysis

Man, I like division 4. Lots of good matches! The second half of this bracket really sucks compared to the first.

I went into the contest thinking Phoenix was going to be awesome. Small voter pool, pure gamefaqs audience, five more years of notoriety for Phoenix -- and yet he seems about as good as he was before. And Phoenix is totally fine! He's right about on Ike's level. I thought he'd really show out in round 1 though, and his three reps from his game kinda didn't do that at all. I guess my bias shone through a little too much.

If my ancient memory of xstats are correct -- if Phoenix and Ike are equal, then Chris Redfield would be worth 56.25% on Joel. If you think Chris gets more than 56%, Phoenix had the better round 1 -- and if you think less, then Ike has the edge. I think that feels just about right. Ike and Phoenix feel kinda dead equal.

But I just can't quite get there. Phoenix has always felt like he's pulling from a pool of voters and has trouble expanding beyond that due to his genre of game and, let's face it, relative newness. We'll ignore that Ike is really a 2008 character by most people's standards. Ike is well-known, well-liked amongst the Phoenix fanbase and there might be some defectors. Phoenix will certainly go to town early, but at the end of the day I think Ike hangs on, takes the lead after an update or three and never looks back.

transience's prediction: Ike with 54.44%
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Leonharts Analysis

This is the biggest match Phoenix has ever had. If he can beat Ike 1-on-1, especially with Smash on the horizon, there can be no doubt about his legitimacy as a solid midcarder. At the very least, I think Phoenix can hang with him. Id take Chris Redfield over Joel, so that gives him some room to work with, at least. Based on Ace Attorneys history, hell need to get out to a big lead early and then hang on for dear life, so well know pretty much right away if hes got a real shot or not. The miracle happen?

Leonharts Vote: Phoenix Wright

Leonharts Prediction: Phoenix Wright with 50.50%

Kleenexs Analysis

Id love to see Phoenix make it to round 3, but I dont think he can get there this year. He beat Chris easily, but RE character have looked like garbage this year. Not that Ikes R1 opponent was anything to write home about either, but Ike isnt the same guy who lost to Duke Nukem 10 years ago, and Nintendo is still riding high (I guess this doesnt really need to be said in every writeup). So, Ill enjoy Phoenix winning for the first 5-10 minutes of the match, but I expect that once the initial rush dies off, well see Ike make it through fairly comfortably.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ike with 55%

Guests Analysis - imthestuntman

The first round offers few insights, with both doing just okay against relative nobodies. Both characters seem extremely unimpressive looking at their history, so I am going to have to go with relevancy to decide this one.

Phoenix seems to have kinda died off a bit the last couple years, without much really going on outside the anime. I cant imagine that is doing him many favors since most people who watch it already liked the character.

Ike on the other hand has smash bros and fire emblem heroes going for him. We know from heroes that Ike is one of, if not the most popular characters in fire emblem. But then we run into smash fans being fed up with fire emblem. My sense has always been ike was a bit immune to the fire emblem hate, so the hype probably helps him more than it hurts him.

My prediction - Ike with 55.85% of the vote.

Crew Consensus: The miracle never happen.
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I still feel good about Phoenix here. Think he has the advantage going in, and even if Ike wins I'm expecting something like 51-49.
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Phoenix should always be the underdog anyway.
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Me too, KP

Lopen's Unofficial Analysisx4

Ness vs 2B

I'm not sure about 2B's strength. She certainly looked good in round 1, but when in doubt, always bet on Nintendo.

Ness with 57.10%

Bowser vs Charizard

Seems counter intuitive but I'm expecting Charizard to get SFFed kinda hard here. These two have pretty similar appeals. If you're the type to think Charizard is badass Bowser's pretty similar in a lot of regards, but he's got more RESPEKT to work off of.

Bowser with 63.15%

Phoenix Wright vs Ike

I give Chris Redfield a lot more credit than Joel, so to me, Phoenix Wright looks stronger. I feel like he has the intangibles working for him as well, in that any SFF splitting is going to go to him pretty hard.

Phoenix Wright with 54.19%

Kirby vs Isaac

Guile is probably stronger than Isaac and Kirby probably SFFs Isaac harder than Guile so I dunno I'll just take the percentage vs Guile and add 4% or something.

Kirby with like 78%
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this character battle is kind of tricky.
I start clicking on my choices and out pops a big add from the top of the page and I end up clicking the ad.
they got me good!

Round 2 Isaac vs. Kirby

Moltars Analysis

Phoenix
Round 1 - 64.63% vs. Estelle Bright

Kirby
Round 1 - 74.54% vs. Guile

oh no im running low on analysis words

um NINTENDO

uh SMASH

lets see

oh man kirby in that world of light trailer wins the contests cuz everyone else got

Moltars Bracket: Kirby

Moltars Prediction: Kirby 72%

transiences Analysis

Let me unveil a somewhat hot take of mine. I'm not really sure how scorching this take is but we'll give it a shot. For 15 years, we've gone back and forth on who the tenth strongest character is, after the noble nine. Sometimes we'll even argue that #10 could beat #9 or 8 or whatever. Squall, Ganondorf, Bowser, Vincent, maybe even some Pokemon -- all of these guys have been in that coveted spot. The best of the rest.

Well, I think there's a clear #10, and it's Kirby. The only characters I'm willing to consider above him are Pokemon. I think Kirby's going to show the Bowser/Charizard winner what's up this year. It's going to be tough to go too far in the big bracket this year just based on how it's structured, but if anyone's going to do it, I think Kirby will.

Isaac is an obvious tripling coming to pass here. Maybe Kirby goes big -- after all, he just dropped 74% on an original 8 SF2 character while Ganondorf could only pull 58%. Chun's better than Guile but it's not exactly Ryu vs. Ken there.

transience's prediction: Kirby with 75.45%
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Leonharts Analysis

Weve got three potentially intriguing matches today, and then theres this one. With four matches per day, its always nice to have one match you dont have to think much about! This feels like an easy 70% win for Kirby. Moving on!

Leonharts Vote: Kirby

Leonharts Prediction: Kirby with 70.67%

Kleenexs Analysis

Isaac deconfirmed for Smash, and deconfirmed for having a remote chance of winning this match.

Kleenexs Prediction: Kirby with 70%

Guests Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII

Ive often espoused the view that because Nintendo was virtually unchallenged in the handheld market even while they were struggling in the console market, their primarily-handheld franchises (such as Pokmon) are more resistant to SFF from their heavy hitters. Im not really sure I believe that anymore, but its something worth mentioning after Isaac was able to resist the dual threat of TJF and TOP OPTION, both of which often come into play in 8-9 and 7-10 matches. Its far from the first time Golden Sun overperformed (if you can even call this an overperformance), which made me wonder, does it actually have more strength than we give it credit for?

But of course, it doesnt matter here, because Kirby is one of Nintendos primarily-handheld franchises. Not counting Smash, he went an entire decade with his only non-handheld game being a racing game. Crystal Shards came out in June of 2000; Epic Yarn in October of 2010. The only one between those two was Air Ride. Made his debut on the Game Boy, too, and theres almost always a new Kirby game early in each handhelds lifespan because they use him for gimmicks. (See: Tilt n Tumble, Canvas Curse). So Kirby might actually be a worse opponent for Isaac than certain Nintendo characters that Id expect Kirby to lose toalthough not many, because Kirbys surprisingly high up on the ladder! Ganondorf and Luigi might qualify, though; I dont think Id take Kirby over either of them but I wouldnt be surprised if Isaac stood up to one of them as well as he would to Kirby. Which based on what I put in the Oracle, isnt terribly well!

Kirby with 67.49%

Crew Consensus: Kirby Kirby Kirby thats the name you should know.
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transience's analysis posted...

Well, I think there's a clear #10, and it's Kirby

I agree with you. I bet that makes you feel safe!
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I think Kirby has the potential to be #10. I think really highly of him. Luigi, too.
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I think I take Pikachu as #10 and Kirby as #11
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not bad, 2B. you won't hold on but I like the effort.

I like Ike, I think
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Yeah, I wanted Phoenix to be up by more, but Fire Emblem has a crazy good early vote, too.
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Bowser already plummeting, too.
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I mean I might be a bit naive in saying this, but I would guess both pikachu and kirby would be somewhere in the top 10 no problem. Going to be interesting to see if one of them can break through to the quarterfinals. I would guess pikachu stands the better chance of doing so, and I'd be shocked if he lost to kirby head to head today.
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Bowser with the up-b

still, Charizard's not a fraud. not a huge one anyway.
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oh hey Phoenix going up

Bowser back over 60% too
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whoops nevermind bowser doing his thing

2b, man. who knew (besides the crew)
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wow these results are all shockingly good so far
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Bah, wish I'd had the guts to stick with my bracket. Ness is still a choker. Shadow was just a bigger one.
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transience posted...

Bowser with the up-b

still, Charizard's not a fraud. not a huge one anyway.

It's Terra who is legit.

wow! with so many characters failing the Nintendo test, 2B passing it could be huge. this is a 2017 character we're talking about
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then again she's also trailer bait right now. I wonder how she does without that
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SC6 hype

Everyone falls for fighting game trailers
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2B being at least somewhat legit makes me super happy

Best part of the contest until Crono beats cloud
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whos stronger, Ness or Ridley?
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transcience posted...

whos stronger, Ness or Ridley?

You mean the Ridley who put up 45% on Big Boss but is also weaker than Crash Bandicoot? You tell me.
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Haha go 2B that's great
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so can I LOL Guile and get back on the Cammy bandwagon yet
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2B gonna drop 55% on Bowser you heard it here first
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man the one time I should've just stuck with the option that would let me chase points

I'm just way off my game this year
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you just didnt appreciate the raw power of trailerfaqs
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it works for everyone

except Sora
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yeah I think Phoenix is done.

time for me to switch gears to the real polls with high vote totals. still a bunch of guys that have been around since the 90s though
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Feeling good about my 2B pick (even if I memed the percentage)

Also heck yeah bowser
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don't forget your writeups Guests
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go go Phoenix
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