Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

(+) Yeah! (+)

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Current Guest List: Send write-ups to [email protected]

Sephiroth vs. Albert Wesker - ctesjbuvf
Richter Belmont vs. Captain Falcon - Lopen
Amaterasu vs. Draven - paulg235
Lara Croft vs. Metal Man - MetalmindStats
Ryu vs. Lloyd Irving - MZero
Commander Shepard vs. King K. Rool - DoctorJimmy133
Ellie vs. KOS-MOS - TsunamiXXVIII
Aqua vs. Quiet - Bane_Of_Despair
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wow I hadn't realized how bad that pic of Ocelot was

but still, this result is pretty gross. I don't mind nintendo doing well but it feels like you have to be really notable to not lose to some thing in smash brothers this year.
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True story Ocelot's pic being so bad literally made me vote King Dedede as someone who would've normally voted Ocelot.
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I think that just having an "everyone is returning" in Ultimate has put it in a rather good light, plus Nintendo is strong on this site in general.

I still think Ocelot can pull this off if Nintendo is as frontloaded as it usually is, but yeah, MGSV pic no thanks.

also as the foremost expert of Mewtwo fraudulence I've pegged this match fairly well so I think this confirms my theory
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Luigi - 89.61%
Frog - 77.29%
Master Chief - 87.74%
Tails - 33.15%

wow looks like the casuals whiffed on Tails/Drake too
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I'm a believer in Mewtwo and I undershot him so clearly he's beating Luigi
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you clearly didn't believe enough

get on my level
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7286

Luigi goes big as expected.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7287

Frog also gets a strong win.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7288

Chief...also looks good in victory.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7289

lol drake

Crew Predictions: 46/52

Next Round Thoughts: Luigi still the heavy favorite to advance. Tails seems like the favorite to escape his fourpack, but maybe Chief can put up more of a fight since he didn't look too bad in his match.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 47
Moltar: 45
Leonhart: 43
Kleenex: 42
Guest: 40

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Lopen gets the point for Luigi, transience gets the point for Frog, Moltar gets the point for Chief, and Ranticoot gets the point for Tails.

Guest: 15 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (2), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen)
transience: 13
Moltar: 10
Kleenex: 9
Leonhart: 6
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darn Lopen missed the perfect prediction by 0.01%

that is not within the von Karma margin of error unfortunately
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I almost nailed Frog too
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I have a hard time seeing Ocelot hold this.
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Piranha Plant beats like 40 characters in this contest now, right?
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I mean she probably beat at least 20 before.

Round 1 Sephiroth vs. Albert Wesker

Moltars Analysis

well I guess we can find out if Seph still gets super anti-voted here?

Moltars Bracket: Sephiroth

Moltars Prediction: Sephiroth 72%

transiences Analysis

Finally, the last division! 64 matches before returning to round 2 is a lot. Especially when you have to write about it in 16 days.

I went in thinking that RE would be a little weak this year compared to others and... I've been pretty wrong about that? Like Sonic, RE hasn't totally wowed you, but it's done what's needed, won a close match and made Phoenix look kinda mediocre by the end of the match. Leon's looking about on par with Vivi, maybe.

I haven't mentioned Sephiroth because how do you even put an expectation on him? For 15 years, he's been mega weird. This villain/villain match might put him in the best possible light. You see, Sephiroth is kinda unique in that he's a really powerful NPC/antagonist whereas every other notable character is playable. Even Ganondorf and Bowser have some level of overlap. Sephiroth just gets that killer Nibelheim flashback.

I don't think he looks super great here because, like I've said before, I don't think FF7 is going to be very good this year. Wesker probably embarrasses him early until Sephiroth ascends the rest of the match. This is like a villain contest match with villain contest like trends. Seph is the only truly powerful character in the baby bracket so maybe he reminds us what a real character looks like. Who knows? It's Sephiroth.

transience's prediction: Sephiroth with 72.01%

Leonharts Analysis

Sephiroth is one of the biggest mysteries of the contest in terms of where his real strength lies. He used to be part of a triumvirate once thought unassailable known simply as Clinkeroth. Solid Snake shattered it back in 2010, and Sephiroth hasnt been the same since. He consistently underwhelmed in 2013, even as he continued to win until he ran into Draven. Now this year everyones looking for the first possible opportunity to pick against him, and even if you have him surviving those upsets, virtually no one expects him to beat any of the Noble Niners he might face.

I do think SBAllen deliberately gave Sephiroth the weakest division to compensate for the fact that he was the only Noble Niner not given an automatic bye into the second part of the contest. He was even given an opportunity to show off here by having a fellow villain as his opening opponent, harkening back to his lone contest victory in the Villains Contest in 2005. Can Sephiroth apply some weird villain SFF and overperform or something? Who knows. We do know Weskers never been very good though, so if Sephiroth cant go super high here, he might be in trouble.

Leonharts Vote: Sephiroth

Leonharts Prediction: Sephiroth with 71.19%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Sephiroth is pretty lucky hes got such a weak division, because I think hed have a rough time otherwise. I kinda wonder what the board vote looks like here, Im not sure we really care about either of these guys! Regardless, something would have to go tremendously wrong for Sephiroth to not at least double Wesker at worst.

Kleenexs Prediction: Sephiroth with 71%

Guests Analysis - ctesjbuvf

I think Sephiroth will end up not looking nearly as bad as everyone is insisting he is. At the same time I'm sure everyone will find some excuse to call him terrible regardless of how he does. I'm not sure just how good he needs to do before everyone shuts up, but it's probably on a level of his strength back in the first contests. He probably starts out looking bad and everyone will call him terrible and not look at the
match again to see him recover percentage into respectable numbers the entire day.

I for one don't think Sephiroth did too bad in 2013 all things considered. In a contest where rallies were everywhere and many top characters lost to midcarders, Pokemon or Draven, beating Big Boss and Kirby somewhat easily is honestly a good result. Kirby has been amazing in multi-ways, in particularly in matches where he stands out, and MGS was really on fire that year. Sephiroth will not be able to score huge blowouts like some other NN'ers would, but he wont have trouble either.

As for Wesker, well, he has always been pretty bad and that probably wont have changed anything. His goal should be to avoid getting tripled, which if it happens will only be because it's apparently cool
today to hate on Sephiroth.

Sephiroth - 76.12%
Albert Wesker - 23.88%

Crew Consensus: Sephy wins in 7 minutes.
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the ol' 1% spread

nice
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I, for one, am ready to see the "why is [insert realistic character] losing to a PLANT?" posts.

The only question I have about today is if Sephiroth does better on Wesker than Kefka did 13 years ago

Somehow I feel he might not
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Round 1 Richter Belmont vs. Captain Falcon

Moltars Analysis

Well, Simon managed to beat Ryu H a few days ago, so now this means Richter might follow suit?

Nah, I dont think so. The main benefit that Richter would get (aka Smash announcement) is nullified by facing Falcon, one of the faces of weak Nintendo characters boosted by Smash. Therefore, Richter has to pull straight from the Castlevania fanbase, and thats not going to be much when facing straight up Nintendo.

Moltars Bracket: Falcon

Moltars Prediction: Falcon 66%

transiences Analysis

Sorry, Richter, but you're not really in that Simon trailer. Meanwhile, Falcon has been smashing it up for 19 years. Richter might be third in the Belmont tier list behind Simon and Trevor? He's not truly playable in most of the notable CV games, at least according to this website.

I'm not really sure how to handicap this one but it's hard to see Falcon being at all threatened unless the fanbase decides that Richter is the new smash hotness and Falcon's old news. Yeah, no.

transience's prediction: Falcon with 64.54%

Leonharts Analysis

If Richter wanted to take advantage of his newfound Smash Bros. fame, he drew a bad opponent for it. Captain Falcon is about as strong as a character can be powered only by Smash Bros. and memes, which negates both of Richters power sources. If nothing else, the board should be fun with people posting memes all day long, but the match itself probably wont be particularly exciting.

Leonharts Vote: Captain Falcon

Leonharts Prediction: Captain Falcon with 60.06%

Kleenexs Analysis

Simon finally won a match! Can Richter follow in his footsteps? Short answer is no. For one, Simon is almost assuredly stronger than Richter, and second, Falcon is definitely stronger than Hayabusa. I am surprised at Richter being an 8th seed - its amazing what a Smash appearance can do for you.

Kleenexs Prediction: Captain Falcon with 62%
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Lopen's analysis

Mankind ill needs a savior such as Captain Falcon.

The Belmont name has been sullied for far too long. This year will be one of triumph. If Simon Belmont can get a win over Ryu Hayabusa, so too can Richter get a Smash Boost to put him over this Captain Falcon fellow.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5171-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-alucard-vs-falcon-vs-rydia

This is, of course, the instinctive match to look at when assessing Richter's strength and chances of winning this match. At a glance, you would basically need 2018 Richter to be stronger than 2013 Alucard to win this match. I'm not going to go that far and claim Richter will be stronger than Alucard entirely off a Smash hype boost, but I do think Castlevania as a whole may be stronger than it was in 2013. I also think that there are reasons why Rydia possibly hurts Alucard more than Captain Falcon there. Castlevania, Metal Gear, and Final Fantasy have historically had some kinda weird interactions, and if Rydia's going to adversely affect one of the two it's going to be Alucard.

Consider also that Captain Falcon's only win of note was over Riku, who should be buzzing some fraud alarms after he was obliterated earlier this year-- sure that was years ago, but Riku hasn't exactly looked great for a real long time, and a decline likely began before that 1v1. It's possible that Captain Falcon just really isn't a huge powerhouse to be dealt with. And now we sweeten the pot by thinking about how strong Ryu Hayabusa is compared to Captain Falcon, and that Simon Belmont beat Ryu Hayabusa. Surely, as inconsistent as he is, Ryu Hayabusa has the better track record.

Now go from there and consider the possibility of Richter > Simon is real. Symphony of the Night, combined with Rondo of Blood, Dracula X, Portrait of Ruin, and heck Harmony of Despair,should be a big enough presence-base on this site that Richter should be about as well known as Simon. I feel, in general, Richter has more passionate fans than Simon. Simon's just that guy who whips, gets hit by a bird, gets knocked back way too far and falls into the water. Richter? Total badass. He does flying uppercuts, roundhouse kicks, slide jumps, zips all over the place. He also has most of the greatest dialogue in the Castlevania series. Simon possibly has more strength as a symbol of Castlevania, but Richter gets a lot of that on his own just through the name Belmont, and is generally a more appealing character.

I took this as an upset, because I freakin love Richter Belmont (Richter mode is the best mode of every game he's in, suck it Alucard fans (wait I'm an Alucard fan)) but seeing this contest unfold as it has has filled me with hope that this actually will pan out. Weird to say seeing all this Nintendo dominance, but hey, Richter is Nintendo now too. Richter is in yo base, Falcon, stealin your martial arts lovers. You will not survive.

Lopen's Prediction:
Richter Belmont with 51.66%

Crew Consensus: Falcon speeds past the competition.
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good job Lopen saving a crew curse
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Sixty? Come on.

My percentage is going to be closer even if Richter doesn't actually win.

Sixty percent good lord.
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What a terrible night to have a Crew Curse.

EDIT: Wait damnit Lopen, you ruined the joke
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I'm going to be cursing at the crew when Richter wins don't worry.
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Richter aint winning this
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I'm thinking Ocelot probably holds on here.
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Richter mode is indeed the best.
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The Mana Sword posted...

I'm thinking Ocelot probably holds on here.

Disappointing Smash Direct Effect is confirmed
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all those people see a plant, run to gamefaqs and vote for king dedede

what could go wrong
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transcience posted...

all those people see a plant, run to gamefaqs and vote for king dedede

what could go wrong

The part where people enter gameFAQs.

so I just got online for the first time today and a Piranha Plant was announced for Smash?

am I reading this right or is this some sort of elaborate B8 troll designed to confuse visitors?
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Ken
Incineroar
Piranha plant (not petey)

Thats it
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well there should be a "Relief that it's not Petey Piranha" boost for Smash if nothing else
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LeonhartFour posted...

well there should be a "Relief that it's not Petey Piranha" boost for Smash if nothing else

Petey is the final smash.

it's still not playing as Petey Piranha

too bad we didn't get Ken into the contest this year (although he could've already been eliminated by now, I guess)
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LeonhartFour posted...

so I just got online for the first time today and a Piranha Plant was announced for Smash?

am I reading this right or is this some sort of elaborate B8 troll designed to confuse visitors?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sv1jqGEigWQ" data-time="

This video explains all.
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Yay Tom Fawkes!
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man it's nice to finally have a day where I was fairly close on all four matches

it's been a while
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Round 1 Amaterasu vs. Draven

Moltars Analysis

Look at what L-Block did this contest.

Look at what Sans did this contest.

my boy draven finna get WASHED

Moltars Bracket: Amaterasu

Moltars Prediction: Amaterasu 75%

transiences Analysis

I put next to no thought into Draven pre-contest. He probably isn't happening again and this whole first round has kinda proven that. He probably gets antivoted in record amounts early on and then DogFAQs takes over.

Like, what else can you say here? Just throw in a number and move on.

transience's prediction: Amaterasu with 71.45%

Leonharts Analysis

At this point, I dont think anyones expecting any sort of rally out of Draven, right? The League of Legends subreddit doesnt even allow rallies anymore (largely thanks to us), so its not like he really has anything to draw from now. I am curious to see what Dravens natural strength is at this point though. When we saw him in round one in CBIX, he was getting utterly humiliated by Jak and Chie. I think hell do better now just because of his infamy, but his board vote should be hilarious to witness because hes still public enemy #1 around these parts.

Leonharts Vote: Amaterasu

Leonharts Prediction: Amaterasu with 68.75%

Kleenexs Analysis

With RallyFAQs being all but dead, Draven is the last bastion for the rally hopefuls. It aint happening, though. Draven is probably back to his sub-Chie levels at this point, and Ammy has always been surprisingly potent. The good doggo wins without much trouble.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ammy with 68%

Guests Analysis - paulg235

So there was much speculation pre-contest on whether RallyFAQs would strike again this contest like in 2013 or in 2015, and it was understandable why there were bracketmakers picking the likes of Geralt, Monika and Sans to win the whole thing or at least pull off some unexpected upsets. But as Round 1 draws to a close, none of these characters have done well and most of them are already out. The number of outside support has simply been too little to affect any results.

This leads us to defending Character Battle champion Draven, who prior to the reddit rallies was losing to Jak and Chie at the start of his debut match. Everyone remembers what happened next. Thanks to the support, Draven was able to turn around an embarrassing loss to a crushing victory over almost everyone that stood in front of him. Even Link couldn't stop him.

Flash forward to 2018 and the question is "Will this happen again?". Can Draven gather rally support to take another contest by storm? I suppose the possibility is there. But one look at how similar entries have done since the first contest (Starcraft, L-Block, Missingno, Undertale/Sans) would dictate that Draven isn't going to repeat the championship run. I'm not sure how League of Legends is doing these days, but apparently not as good as it once was?

In any case, one would have to assume he is going to be the most anti-voted character in the contest, so he has that going against him too. Amaterasu has also been a very consistent and credible character since 2007 and she is bound to destroy Draven based on natural strength. As it stands, Ammy looks good heading into this match.

Winner - Amaterasu (75.80%)

Crew Consensus: Welcome to the League of Ammy.
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Ammy could legit get 80% here and I wouldn't be surprised.
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i think Draven will get a lot of weird joke votes

then about 10 votes from the LoL community of the site

...

Ammy with 90% let's gooooo
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Chester > Draven I believe it

Lopen's Unofficial Analysisx4

Sephiroth vs Wesker

Sure FFVII gets anti-voted, and sure Resident Evil has held up... reasonably well, but Seph feels like the exact kinda guy to bash Wesker into the dirt. Villain SFF or PSX SFF or whatever, dude's going big. If Tifa can break 70% on firewood Wesker can break 75% on sunglasses.

Sephiroth with 76.88%

Richter Belmont vs. Captain Falcon

Official analyst Lopen is incredibly biased. What a dummy.

Richter Belmont with 79.23%

Amaterasu vs. Draven

I feel you can start with Pac/Sans as a baseline, then consider the following things. 1. Amaterasu seems less suited to being an anti-vote magnet than Pac. 2. Draven is probably weaker than Sans. A lot of the League fanbase doesn't even like this guy, and Draven's pre-rally strength has probably dropped from 2013 because League is less relevant than it was in 2013. 3. Pac is probably stronger than Ammy. All things considered I'm thinking the result is about the same.

Amaterasu with 71.94%

Lara Croft vs Metal Man

Will Lara Croft get some weird nostalgia vote? Will Metal Man get joke votes? I don't know. This was one of the toughest matches in round 1 for me to call and really feels like it could go any direction. Mega Man's looked strong and Lara is old enough that she shouldn't tank despite a relative lack of relevance + being in a series GameFAQs doesn't care for.

I'm just gonna plug in Dr. Wily Villains Contest vs Lara Croft 2013 and put that because I don't have to be good at my job.

Dr. Wily (2005v) VS Lara Croft (2013c)

Dr. Wily has a strength of 21.53.
Lara Croft has a strength of 26.66.

Lara Croft wins with 59.62% of the vote!
A win of 11,278 with 58,611 total votes cast.

That's uh... higher margin than I was expecting. Whatever. I said I'd do it so I'm sticking to it. (IT IS PROBABLY CLOSER THAN THIS)

Lara Croft with 59.62%
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Lopen posted...

Wesker can break 75%

now I'm wondering how many characters Wesker could actually break 75% on
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LeonhartFour posted...

Lopen posted...

Wesker can break 75%

now I'm wondering how many characters Wesker could actually break 75% on

Spring Breeze Dancin'
Caim
Tanner
Chester
Zero (999)
Cayde-6
Serious Sam
Dirk the Daring

i'm sure there's more
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that might actually be the complete list
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Round 1 Lara Croft vs. Metal Man

Moltars Analysis

Characters like Lara havent been doing well this contest. Unlike the Drakes and the Joels though, shes been around forever and a icon, so shes actually should be on the stronger side of western characters.

Metal Man is a random robot master and I dont think hell be strong? Lara/Proto Man would have been a pretty good match but this shouldnt be any problem for the Tomb Raider.

Moltars Bracket: Lara

Moltars Prediction: Lara 65%

transiences Analysis

This is... kinda like Boss/Metal Sonic, right? Metal Man's way cooler than Metal Sonic but Lara also has some level of iconness to her, kinda like Crash does.

I guess Metal Man's ceiling is probably Protoman, yeah? Protoman's pretty surprisingly legit, and apparently almost beat Ike in a match I don't even remember happening because the 2013 contest was a total threeway blur for me. Hmm. Ike probably beats Lara now, but also screw the results of the 2013 contest in general.

Yeah, I'm not sure what happens here. I'll go Lara like everyone else probably will, but Metal Man could surprise. I'd be more worried if we got a Metal Man sprite here. What did Boss get? 56.52%?

transience's prediction: Lara Croft with 56.52%

Leonharts Analysis

Man, what the heck is that Lara pic? Shes lucky everyone already knows who she is and shes facing a weak first round opponent. She should also be a key beneficiary of the Pac-Man Apathy Factor, although that wont be important until next round. While Metal Sonic surpassed my expectations against The Boss, I cant see Metal Man doing something similar. Hes just a random Robot Master. People love the Metal Blade, but thats not because of Metal Man himself, although I guess he could get some indirect benefit from it.

Either way, Lara is probably at least as strong as The Boss, and Metal Sonic is probably stronger than Metal Man, so I cant see this being all that close.

Leonharts Vote: Lara Croft

Leonharts Prediction: Lara Croft with 65.35%

Kleenexs Analysis

I dont really get Metal Man, but I know hes a board-led creation, so whatever. Lara Croft may be worth a little bit more than she used to just based on the new Tomb Raider games, but I think this mostly comes down to recognizable character vs. someone no one else really cares about. Should have nominated Air Man instead tbqh.

Kleenexs Prediction: Lara with 70%
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Guests Analysis - MetalmindStats

Disclaimer: I have not played more than 15 minutes of any Mega Man game in my life, so if youre reading along, feel free to correct any mistakes I might make here. Also, I cant beat Zen at his own game, so I wont try. That being said, my mission here is to convince you, the reader, why Metal Man will prove more popular than Lara Croft, all without wasting your time.

Point 1: Metal Man is the iconic Robot Master from the most universally remembered and widely beloved Mega Man game.

This ones self-explanatory, really. Everyone whos played any significant amount of Mega Man 2 remembers the Metal Blade, and by proxy the Robot Master whose defeat grants you it. Theres a reason its Mega Mans neutral special in Smash 4!

Point 2: Laras lack of relevance: Or why a two-month-old AAA game doesnt matter.

To put it simply, people dont care about Shadow of the Tomb Raider. Its not top 100 in overall popularity or top 10 on any of its platforms even behind its predecessor on the Xbox One! Compare to fellow recent Western action-adventure Assassins Creed Odyssey, which is still top 10 overall, despite which Ezio flopped hard. Shadow also has just a 3.77/5 average rating for its PS4 version, and roughly similar on other platforms. And from critical reception to estimated Steamspy sales and Steam user reviews, other sources tell the exact same story of a game everyone has met with a collective shrug. With that out of the way, were left with a character who is hardly any more relevant than most others from Western games.

Point 3: CBX trends favor Metal Man.

To segue from Point 2, look at how those other Western characters have fared so far in this contest. From Ezio through Gordon to Drake, theyve consistently been in the habit of making their opponents look good even when they have bracket votes like Drake did and Lara will. In direct contrast, such nostalgic platformer characters as Donkey Kong, Knuckles, and Crash Bandicoot have greatly overperformed. For a more direct series comparison, Mega Man X is currently (as of the time of writing) at close to 80% against Animal Crossing fan favorite Isabelle, the highest percentage of CBX so far if it holds.

Point 4: Just look at the match picture!

Another obvious point. Lara looks like a little girl lost, sporting the same type of gritty, generically unappealing Western game appearance that has already let down several characters. On the other hand, Metal Man draws the eye with his classic and iconic Mega Man 2 art, flaunting his biggest selling point front-and-center quite unlike Lara.

Point 5: Metal Man has our support!

Finally, though perhaps least importantly, if this match turns out particularly close, Metal Man is a major Board 8 favorite, as evidenced originally by HaRRicHs wildly successful rally, and more recently by his dominant performance in Whiskey Nicks Best 13-seed poll series.

Those are my reasons why Metal Man will slice apart everyones expectations. Has my mission succeeded? Now that is up to you, my dear reader.

My Vote: Metal M A N

My HaRRicH-approved Prediction: Metal Man wins with 52.22%

Crew Consensus: Lara smashes through metal.
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Can someone tell me how Metal Man became a board meme?
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