Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1292

(+) Yeah! (+)

You'll never see it COMIIIIIIIIIIIIIIN
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Lead chance for Joker and FRAUD sinking

pjbasis posted...

Uh Claire is favored in the day?

Resident Evil historically has a pretty garbage day vote, so I wouldn't be too sure.
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Lopen posted...

Joker's probably being carried by Japan right now (I think we get vaguely respectable vote totals from Japan?) it's kind of a stomp there. RE has always done well in Europe historically as well. Those two combined (Europe waking up and Japan going to sleep) will probably make this one not very close in the long run, but it's fun to watch now.

It's 10am in Japan >_>
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Just imagine if Vincent had his suit. Magus would be winning by even more! Or maybe the suit was the only thing keeping Vincent from hitting rock bottom?
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Division 6, Round 1

Geralt vs. Rosalina
Registered Vote Result:
Geralt - 5375 (55.26%)
Rosalina - 4351 (44.74%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Geralt - 6029 (57.44%)
Rosalina - 4468 (42.56%)

Ryu Hayabusa vs. Simon Belmont
Registered Vote Result:
Ryu Hayabusa - 4709 (48.41%)
Simon Belmont - 5018 (51.59%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Ryu Hayabusa - 5325 (50.72%)
Simon Belmont - 5174 (49.28%)

Sans vs. Pac-Man
Registered Vote Result:
Sans - 2853 (29.33%)
Pac-Man - 6873 (70.67%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Sans - 2865 (27.29%)
Pac-Man - 7634 (72.71%)

Bayonetta vs. Riku
Registered Vote Result:
Bayonetta - 6310 (64.86%)
Riku - 3418 (35.14%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Bayonetta - 6669 (63.53%)
Riku - 3829 (36.47%)

Hayabusa/Simon is another match where registered and anonymous users don't pick the same winner. Even without double voting, Simon still wins by 158 votes.

Sans actually does about 2% better among registered users. It would make sense that Sans is stronger among registered users since they're more familar with Undertale and the contest run it pulled off in 2015.

Extra info - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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MZero11 posted...

It's 10am in Japan >_>

Yeah I know what time it is in Japan

People are awake at 10am, generally!
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Lopen posted...

(I think we get vaguely respectable vote totals from Japan?)

Really? I thought Japan had fairly bad votals here unless it's only compared to other non-Western countries.
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Claire used a Green Herb!
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Lead change for Claire, and Vincent cut!

I'm feeling fairly confident in Vincent and Joker winning their respective matches, but time will tell....

Funny thing about today: Auron is on track to get yet ANOTHER 64%-65% victory here. He already did so against Tails, Scorpion, Ness, and Alucard....
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I'm pretty sure Claire's 3 vote lead right now is the closest margin I've ever personally seen as it was actually happening
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Yeah, we may not be big on new characters, but we're still RPGFAQs.

And SMT is actually a very long-running franchise! Granted, it has about as much between-games continuity as Final Fantasy, maybe even less because Square's been trying to turn each numbered Final Fantasy into its own franchise, so expecting Joker to be at least decent simply because of that would be like expecting Noctis to, you know, not lose to a glove.

But yeah, even lesser RPG series can apparently compete with RE now.
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Xeybozn posted...

Really? I thought Japan had fairly bad votals here unless it's only compared to other non-Western countries.

I mean it probably does have fairly bad votals but dude's literally winning with 90% there. Even if there are only like 100 votes from Japan right now that's an 80 vote differential.
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Lopen posted...

MZero11 posted...

It's 10am in Japan >_>

Yeah I know what time it is in Japan

People are awake at 10am, generally!

Well yeah but everyone's at work probably not voting in a GameFAQs poll
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Xeybozn posted...

Really? I thought Japan had fairly bad votals here unless it's only compared to other non-Western countries.

Japan actually has fairly bad vote totals. Native Japanese people aren't the type to visit a site like GameFAQs, owing to their generally limited knowledge of English. Almost all the votes we get from Japan are from foreigners currently living in Japan.
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Well I'm not saying Japan is exactly flooding the ballot or anything

Just that when it becomes 10pm in Japan and 1pm in Europe this is probably a different tale than it is right now.
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New factor: Japan Factor?

The Phillipines gets more votes than Japan, but it looks like Joker has 100% of the votes there so far, so same thing.
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Okay, time to take a break for trend charts:

Time | Geralt | Rosalina | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 49.16% | 50.84% | 592 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 53.48% | 46.52% | 3882 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 52.79% | 47.21% | 9512 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 59.06% | 40.94% | 3732 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 58.40% | 41.60% | 6351 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 58.24% | 41.76% | 6472 | (16:00-24:00)

Surprise, surprise! It's another heavily frontloaded Nintendo character!

Time | Hayabusa | Simon | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 43.82% | 56.18% | 591 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 47.77% | 52.23% | 3885 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 46.87% | 53.13% | 9511 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 52.49% | 47.51% | 3734 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 50.12% | 49.88% | 6351 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 50.77% | 49.23% | 6472 | (16:00-24:00)

This match basically went 50/50 the whole way after the first three hours.

Time | Sans | Pac-Man | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 27.53% | 72.47% | 592 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 29.30% | 70.70% | 3887 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 29.75% | 70.25% | 9512 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 28.63% | 71.37% | 3731 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 27.02% | 72.98% | 6351 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 28.10% | 71.90% | 6470 | (16:00-24:00)

Man, who would've guessed that the best time for Sans would be the early part of the match after how things started?

Time | Bayonetta | Riku | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 59.29% | 40.71% | 592 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 62.85% | 37.15% | 3887 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 64.94% | 35.06% | 9515 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 64.86% | 35.14% | 3728 | (6:00-10:00)
TMV | 65.15% | 34.85% | 6353 | (10:00-16:00)
TDV | 63.51% | 36.49% | 6471 | (16:00-24:00)

Oh hey, Riku at least has a semblance of a day vote...!
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Lopen posted...

Xeybozn posted...

Really? I thought Japan had fairly bad votals here unless it's only compared to other non-Western countries.

I mean it probably does have fairly bad votals but dude's literally winning with 90% there. Even if there are only like 100 votes from Japan right now that's an 80 vote differential.

If Japan has cast 100 votes so far, that'd be around 2% of the overall vote. I really doubt Japan makes up that much of the vote even with this being a bad time for Europe.
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Asia Factor then.

Weaboo characters trend stronger in the night.

I cannot wait to get home and start blasting Maguss theme in the house.

Also, if Claire could put away this Joker clown, I might be able to sniff the leaderboard soon even with missing the Magus match.
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oh you guys let Tsunami make a Stats Topic huh

that's unfortunate
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also Auron is really starting to take off now

Power Hour over indeed
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Claire and Magus got some nice lead extensions too
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Claire is pulling away

Need Joker to be announced for Smash to turn this around!
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I bet Japan + Phillipines being 2% of the vote probably isn't too far off the mark though. May even be an undershoot.
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HeroicSpiderPig posted...

The Phillipines gets more votes than Japan, but it looks like Joker has 100% of the votes there so far, so same thing.

Not surprising; they speak English there. Not exclusively, but they do.

Same for Singapore.
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uh oh Vincent just cut the lead in half
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Another Vincent cut; another Claire extension.

I'm starting to doubt Joker will be able to keep it in reach.
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What's CT vs. FFVII trends historically?
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pjbasis posted...

What's CT vs. FFVII trends historically?

CT does really well early and fades late

except when it cheats like in 2008

of course the new start time changes things a bit
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pjbasis posted...

Claire and Magus got some nice lead extensions too

Top 10 things I never thought I'd read in a contest thread
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TIE

*head explodes*
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Vincent/Magus tied!
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LITERAL TIE!

Also Joker gets a cut.
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tie + joker cut wowee what a time to be alive

cool
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and there goes the other half

good Joker cut too
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holy shit a tie
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Looks like Im going to need to set up a Lucina rally after all :)
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Lopen posted...

I bet Japan + Phillipines being 2% of the vote probably isn't too far off the mark though. May even be an undershoot.

The Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia are the 3 countries in Asia you want to keep an eye on when it comes to the Asia vote. I bet those 3 countries would make up at least 75% of Asia's total votes.
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augh double bad update
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Tie breaks for Magus!
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LeonhartFour posted...

augh double bad update

I dunno, I kind of like Magus reestablishing the lead!

And I actually did vote for Claire even though I'm rooting against her now.
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Claire's lead finally breaks 100

She might be ready to pull away
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;)
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Play Meteos.
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