Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 199: Lisa Mur-coward-ski

(+) Yeah! (+)

LinkMarioSamus posted...

The new Halloween film retcons everything aside from the original.

i was making a joke about how fox is literally saying jamie lee curtis is a hypocrite for acting differently than a fictional character she portrays.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html

And yet the early voting, which is typically dominated by democrats, shows the republican winning by 6 points. This suggests an easy GOP win there.

Where exactly is this blue wave I keep hearing about?

If Tennessee and North Dakota go GOP. You now have to wonder if R gain seats.

Tester's lead has drained a lot. Florida is still a toss up. As is Arizona. Indiana is not far from one either. Missouri is looking increasingly good for Rs.
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Republicans should gain seats in the Senate. The map is just too favorable. The House could be a problem......but Dems still aren't presenting their vision for the country, only talking about opposing Trump, so the plan of distraction is working. So I'm cautiously optimistic the GOP can hold the House.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 just had their worst day since the Great Recession.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 just had their worst day since the Great Recession.

Well did ya see what fucking happened with Ford?

I'm surprised it wasnt worse.
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Imagine being so disingenuous that you think a former attorney general was actually condoning physical violence.

Theres this dude I see shared by doofuses, named Mark Dice, and he made a post about the Eric Holder comments saying such, and the comments were FILLED with people saying they should/would/did report his comments to the authorities for investigation of credible threats.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410801-eric-holder-when-republicans-go-low-we-kick-them

Democrat leaders telling the truth about what theyre really like.

They dream that's what they do. The reality is when Republicans go low, Democrats alternate between complaining while clutching pearls and making failed attempts at going lower that result only in them prostrating themselves on the ground. They haven't managed to connect on a kick to a Republican in years.
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Poll of polls on the key Senate races via Harry Enten.

AZ: Sinema +1,
FL: Nelson +2,
IN: Donnelly +3,
MO: McCaskill +1,
MT: Tester +6,
ND: Cramer +4,
NJ: Menendez +9,
NV: Tie,
TN: Blackburn +5,
TX: Cruz +4,
WV: Manchin +9...
GOP pickup forecast: +1.
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Also, when is president Trump going to rebuild LAX? It's a seriously embarrasing airport....seize it by eminent domain in the name of not embarrassing America to international visitors if you have to. California obviously isn't going to do anything to make it better.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 just had their worst day since the Great Recession.

Its a necessary market correction post-tariffs. If you were an investor youd know this. Not all 800 point drops are created equal.

The conclusion here is that tariffs are bad, not that the drop is fine
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Eddv posted...

Poll of polls on the key Senate races via Harry Enten.

AZ: Sinema +1,
FL: Nelson +2,
IN: Donnelly +3,
MO: McCaskill +1,
MT: Tester +6,
ND: Cramer +4,
NJ: Menendez +9,
NV: Tie,
TN: Blackburn +5,
TX: Cruz +4,
WV: Manchin +9...
GOP pickup forecast: +1.

Repubs gonna win TN, TX, ND, AZ, and NV. Book it.
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HarrietTubgirl posted...

Eddv posted...

Poll of polls on the key Senate races via Harry Enten.

AZ: Sinema +1,
FL: Nelson +2,
IN: Donnelly +3,
MO: McCaskill +1,
MT: Tester +6,
ND: Cramer +4,
NJ: Menendez +9,
NV: Tie,
TN: Blackburn +5,
TX: Cruz +4,
WV: Manchin +9...
GOP pickup forecast: +1.

Repubs gonna win TN, TX, ND, AZ, and NV. Book it.

Whats your House prediction?
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How do you have the highest taxes assessed on the highest tax base in the country and have the worst infrastructure, failing schools, highest traffic tickets, slowest DMV, and "public" universities that only get about 15% of their funding from the state? Can we please have a federal takeover on the grounds that the voters of California and their representatives are utterly incompetent to govern themselves?
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Enten was also unwilling to project MS special because there has been one poll which showed the top 3 all within 6 pts of one another which simply doesnt provide a basis for projection
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Eddv posted...

Poll of polls on the key Senate races via Harry Enten.

AZ: Sinema +1,
FL: Nelson +2,
IN: Donnelly +3,
MO: McCaskill +1,
MT: Tester +6,
ND: Cramer +4,
NJ: Menendez +9,
NV: Tie,
TN: Blackburn +5,
TX: Cruz +4,
WV: Manchin +9...
GOP pickup forecast: +1.

I thought we'd get GOP +1 for a while, but its looking more and more like +2 or +3. I just do see any way the Dems defend all these seats.
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*shrug*

+1 is what the polls and analysis say so thats the likely outcome.

-2 to +3 are all within the realm of possibility.

(That is to say yes Donnelly and all beneath him could fall but by that same token so could Cruz or Cramer)
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Jakyl25 posted...

HarrietTubgirl posted...

Eddv posted...

Poll of polls on the key Senate races via Harry Enten.

AZ: Sinema +1,
FL: Nelson +2,
IN: Donnelly +3,
MO: McCaskill +1,
MT: Tester +6,
ND: Cramer +4,
NJ: Menendez +9,
NV: Tie,
TN: Blackburn +5,
TX: Cruz +4,
WV: Manchin +9...
GOP pickup forecast: +1.

Repubs gonna win TN, TX, ND, AZ, and NV. Book it.

Whats your House prediction?

Dems take it by 5-10 seats
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RCP analysis

Florida. Nelson +2.4
Tenn: Blackburn +2.7
Ind: Donnelly +2.5
Missouri: Hawley +.4
Montana: Tester +3
Arizona: Sinema +1.8
Nevada: Rosen +1.4
North Dakota: Cramer +8.7
Minnesota: Smith +9.7
Texas: Cruz +6
New Jersey: Menendez +7.2
West Virginia: Manchin +9.4
Wisconsin: Baldwin +10.7

Generic Ballof: Dems +6.7
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I tend to trust Harry more than anyone else, but yeah there is some wiggle and movement.

Whats interesting is that the Senate polls seem to be lagging the Generic Ballot polls so we may see a leftward movement to match.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

San Francisco, the most expensive city to live, has human s*** all over the streets.

Well...only in the Tenderloin (which is not a very expensive neighborhood--I could rent there for cheaper than my current apartment).

Though sure, if you're arguing that American cities should do a better job of providing services and clean streets to all its neighborhoods, and try to prevent the conditions that lead to slums, I agree!

By comparison, there's almost zero slums in Canadian cities. America should really be trying to learn from Canada's example here.
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If you are outside in Canada for more than 15 seconds you actually just freeze to death, so that isn't really a fair comparison with regard to problems that arise from homelessness.
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I wonder if ulti has even been to SF
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

If you are outside in Canada for more than 15 seconds you actually just freeze to death, so that isn't really a fair comparison with regard to problems that arise from homelessness.

I guess the very much still living homeless guys I see downtown must just be figments of my imagination
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Panthera posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

If you are outside in Canada for more than 15 seconds you actually just freeze to death, so that isn't really a fair comparison with regard to problems that arise from homelessness.

I guess the very much still living homeless guys I see downtown must just be figments of my imagination

Probably a symptom of hypothermia
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Panthera posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

If you are outside in Canada for more than 15 seconds you actually just freeze to death, so that isn't really a fair comparison with regard to problems that arise from homelessness.

I guess the very much still living homeless guys I see downtown must just be figments of my imagination

You should probably get checked out by a specialist of some kind. That sounds pretty serious.
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I assumed we'd play the prediction game closer to the actual midterms but if we're really going there at the moment I'd say Senate: D+2, House: D+60.

That's predicated on some assumptions happening from here on out though. GCB situation improving, Wave elections typically being underestimated/surprise victories happening, healthcare premiums being the least surprising October Surprise but still moving the needle even further.

If the elections happened RIGHT NOW it'd be like Senate: D+1, House: D+40, I think. Wave elections being underestimated still in play tbqh.

or sorry is the mood in the topic supposed to be "blue wave cancelled we're all screwed"
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red sox 777 posted...

Also, when is president Trump going to rebuild LAX? It's a seriously embarrasing airport....seize it by eminent domain in the name of not embarrassing America to international visitors if you have to. California obviously isn't going to do anything to make it better.

umm LAX has been slowly undergoing a complete overhaul that started a few years ago. You cant just shut down the third busiest airport in the US to complete it all at once, but its definitely been seeing some major upgrades in phases.

Also they started with a complete overhaul of the international terminal, so visitors from out of country were taken care of first.
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Thats how I have to think to survive

Hope is gonna have to prove it exists before I believe the moral arc of history bends towards justice again
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xp1337 posted...

I assumed we'd play the prediction game closer to the actual midterms but if we're really going there at the moment I'd say Senate: D+2, House: D+60.

That's predicated on some assumptions happening from here on out though. GCB situation improving, Wave elections typically being underestimated/surprise victories happening, healthcare premiums being the least surprising October Surprise but still moving the needle even further.

If the elections happened RIGHT NOW it'd be like Senate: D+1, House: D+40, I think. Wave elections being underestimated still in play tbqh.

or sorry is the mood in the topic supposed to be "blue wave cancelled we're all screwed"

Lol oh sweet child
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xp1337 posted...

I assumed we'd play the prediction game closer to the actual midterms but if we're really going there at the moment I'd say Senate: D+2, House: D+60.

That's predicated on some assumptions happening from here on out though. GCB situation improving, Wave elections typically being underestimated/surprise victories happening, healthcare premiums being the least surprising October Surprise but still moving the needle even further.

If the elections happened RIGHT NOW it'd be like Senate: D+1, House: D+40, I think. Wave elections being underestimated still in play tbqh.

or sorry is the mood in the topic supposed to be "blue wave cancelled we're all screwed"

I think its easier to assume its not going to happen and then be pleasantly surprised when it does than the opposite.

That said, Democrats taking the house and standing pat in the Senate is about what was expected.
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Eddv posted...

I think its easier to assume its not going to happen and then be pleasantly surprised when it does than the opposite.

I'm generally a very, very pessimistic person. But all the pessimism here is just exhausting tbqh.

You see the same kind of stories "Dems doing great in GCB but oh man at the CD level they'd actually need to sweep the races to take control of Congress so actually Republicans look to be in a stronger position than it seems!" in 2006. Also Democrats tried to ignore the signs in 2010 too.

Now granted, the Senate map this time is uniquely terrible so I understand the skepticism there (Not sure about the Democrats losing seats, certainly not more than 1). But the House? c'mon now.
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People should know better than to have any faith in the Democrats to win elections at this point.

They are terrible at staying on message. Compare how often you hear the Republicans mention Hillary vs how often you hear the Dems mention health care(Which is an issue they could easily win big on).
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red13n posted...

Compare how often you hear the Republicans mention Hillary vs how often you hear the Dems mention health care(Which is an issue they could easily win big on).

Sure.

Healthcare is brought up in half of all pro-Democratic ads in federal races.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/10/trumps-op-ed-confirms-it-central-issue-is-health-care

Anecdotally, I'm in a Lean/Likely R CD depending on who is rating it. The Democratic ads (both now in the general, and back during the primary) went super heavy on Medicare for All. It was far and away the most talked about thing.

The problem the Democrats have is they (and I guess democratic voters/supporters) can't rely on the media to get the message out. Republicans have Fox. Democrats don't have that type of "basically-an-arm-of-the-party" outlet to do that for them. See how the vote to kill the junk insurance plans that Trump put in place that don't cover pre-existing conditions and other things wasn't a major story. (It went down in a 50-50 tie. Collins was the R who voted with the Democrats this time)
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Democrats do not have a winning message on healthcare and won't as long as they don't embrace single payer. The American People see through Obamacare, the most basic understanding of economics shows that it is bad and the gains purely redistributive to a class favored by the Democrats (upper middle class), and all the expert analyses in the world arguing that it can actually be good won't change the people's mind. Trump's explanation of what's wrong with Obamacare and how to fix it (force it to implode to bring Dems/insurance companies to the bargaining table) makes sense and is easy to understand.
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And running ads on Medicare for all won't do much when they all voted against single payer or abstained when it was brought up last year.
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red sox 777 posted...

Democrats do not have a winning message on healthcare and won't as long as they don't embrace single payer. The American People see through Obamacare, the most basic understanding of economics shows that it is bad and the gains purely redistributive to a class favored by the Democrats (upper middle class), and all the expert analyses in the world arguing that it can actually be good won't change the people's mind. Trump's explanation of what's wrong with Obamacare and how to fix it (force it to implode to bring Dems/insurance companies to the bargaining table) makes sense and is easy to understand.

You are just making stuff up here because that certainly wasn't what Trumps design was for what to do about Obamacare.

His design was "let the republicans do it", he backed their plan. And when they couldnt get it to pass he literally sabotaged it taking out part of what would help make Obamacare work.

Assigning any sort of genius to Trump for health care is something you just cant do. Its the one issue where he fell absolutely flat on his face for all to see.
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Blow it all up does not "make sense".
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red sox 777 posted...

How do you have the highest taxes assessed on the highest tax base in the country and have the worst infrastructure, failing schools, highest traffic tickets, slowest DMV, and "public" universities that only get about 15% of their funding from the state? Can we please have a federal takeover on the grounds that the voters of California and their representatives are utterly incompetent to govern themselves?

because trump is going to solve all of these problems?
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Good to know our Republican trolls are arguing for outright tyranny, now. Because you know, party of small government and all that.
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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/10/trump-tv-ratings-fox-news-891621

This is not a good thing for Trump considering how much free advertising he got this way.
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Not_an_Owl posted...

Good to know our Republican trolls are arguing for outright tyranny, now. Because you know, party of small government and all that.

Thats not trolling, thats playing the Devils advocate, some people in this topic have a hard time differentiating between the two.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/10/senator-approval-ratings-morning-consult/1590329002/

Morning news brief: Bernie is still incredibly popular, and water is wet.
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VintageGin posted...

I wonder if ulti has even been to SF

Ulti frequently takes strong stances regarding things he doesn't actually know about in an effort to look smart.

Like when he tried to talk about how smart he is for getting background checks that are more expensive than the standard FBI/state without realizing he's just ordering the combined FBI/state check.

Or when he tried to argue against common core, so I described an alternative system that he said sounded great (but was really just me describing common core).

He'll fight you when he's called out on his bullshit, but he won't actually care when you prove it, so it's not really all that worth it.
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I haven't watched the interview and maybe this article is satire but:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/melania-trump-survivors-sexual-assault-165305499.html

I'm sorry, what?
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Is Mitch McConnell vulnerable in 2020? It's sort of amazing how unpopular he is