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Board 8 > The Official Topic of Freedom and Liberty (Ron Paul 2012)

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Suprak the Stud
03/22/12 1:45:00 PM
#201:


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/22/opinion/please-stop-apologizing.html?_r=1

Wow, I hate Maher but this is well written and 100% correct.

Also:

Wow, Ron Paul has a complex and nuanced view on abortion that isn't either "no abortions for anyone ever" or "abortions for everyone with no restriction".

No wonder he isn't winning the nomination.

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KingButz
03/22/12 2:22:00 PM
#202:


That Maher op-ed was great. It's stupid how offended everyone gets at everything these days.

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foolm0ron
03/22/12 4:28:00 PM
#203:


From: NeoElfboy | #200
It's fine to feel that way; 5% may well be unacceptably high. So you just move the cutoff point until 5% shrinks to 0.05%, or whatever number you find acceptable.


What if the acceptable point is 0%?

I'm sure there is window, like a month or so, where there is absolutely 0% chance of having any development in the fetus. That would be a good point.

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SmartMuffin
03/22/12 5:11:00 PM
#204:


It's fine to feel that way; 5% may well be unacceptably high. So you just move the cutoff point until 5% shrinks to 0.05%, or whatever number you find acceptable.

0% is acceptable. We good on that?

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JeffreyRaze
03/22/12 5:21:00 PM
#205:


So up to two, two and a half months or so I think.

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red sox 777
03/22/12 5:26:00 PM
#206:


If it's really a normal distribution, then 0 is going to be the moment of conception. If it's not actually a true normal distribution (and it probably isn't), then it could be something else.

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JeffreyRaze
03/22/12 5:29:00 PM
#207:


It absolutely cannot be a normal standard distribution, unless you think a barely multicellular being can have a nervous system.

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foolm0ron
03/22/12 5:33:00 PM
#208:


Mutations, yo

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red sox 777
03/22/12 5:36:00 PM
#209:


But see, if you're going to use probability distributions arising in nature in the first place, asking for certainty is going to sink the whole approach by setting it way closer to an extreme than you'd like.

Asking for certainty isn't done in science. It's always about getting it below some minimum probability.

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JeffreyRaze
03/22/12 5:39:00 PM
#210:


Zero Percent chance. For one thing, cell division itself takes a day to a day and a half to begin.

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JeffreyRaze
03/22/12 5:40:00 PM
#211:


While that's true, considering quantum effects can do essentially anything as well, I think if something is unlikely to happen once in a trillion attempts, you can consider the odds effectively zero.

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SmartMuffin
03/22/12 7:14:00 PM
#212:


http://reason.com/blog/2011/01/06/a-drug-sniffing-coin-would-be

If a drug dog barks at your car, that is considered probable cause to search it. Even though they are less reliable than flipping a coin.

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TomNook7
03/23/12 7:22:00 AM
#213:


update on the campaign:



just shut up and take my money you wonderful old man you

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foolm0ron
03/23/12 8:42:00 AM
#214:


I could hear him talk all day. He's just so enjoyable, and not in the "wow that's so dumb it's hilarious" way Santorum is.

This is a pretty amazing ad, too, and exactly reflects my thoughts. Seems like they are actually doing some good work with the money they get, so I'm definitely gonna donate more.


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SmartMuffin
03/23/12 3:43:00 PM
#215:


New DWMF coming tonight. Maybe?

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NeoElfboy
03/23/12 5:44:00 PM
#216:


0% is acceptable. We good on that?

Not really, no. You don't use 0% risk as a threshold for anything. If you did, you would never get into a car, as there is a non-zero chance you would crash and kill someone. You would never own a gun, there is a non-zero chance an accident would occur, killing someone. You would never insult someone's political views on the internet; there is a non-zero chance you would push them over the edge of depression and into suicide.

(This is to say nothing of all the things you do which run the risk of your own death, which is to say, everything you do, period.)

Everything we do in life has risks, to ourselves and others. It's just a matter of what the acceptable range is. Of course, that's an arbitrary number and I'm not going to complain if we have different ones, but zero is unrealistic, and you aren't being truthful when you claim that is yours.

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SmartMuffin
03/23/12 7:54:00 PM
#217:




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special_sauce
03/24/12 7:56:00 AM
#218:


From: SmartMuffin | #212
http://reason.com/blog/2011/01/06/a-drug-sniffing-coin-would-be

If a drug dog barks at your car, that is considered probable cause to search it. Even though they are less reliable than flipping a coin.


They may be less reliable than flipping a coin, but they significantly reduce the risk of "false positives," which is what costs all the money. (EDIT: It should be noted that data for false negatives is scarce, but that false negatives don't seem to be nearly as common.)

An example:
You have 1000 cars. 100 of them have drugs.
The dog would have you search approximately 227 of them. 127 would not have drugs, resulting in 56% being false positives. (Presumably the dog also has some false negatives, so you search a few less, and miss some drugs.)
The COIN would have you search approximately 500 of them. 400 would not have drugs. (You also have 50 false negatives which, debatably, is worse.)
Which of these requires more time? (and thus, more tax dollars?)

It's humorous to think that coins are better than dogs, but it's just untrue. Especially if your argument is "we should spend less on drug-sniffing."

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foolm0ron
03/24/12 1:31:00 PM
#219:


From: NeoElfboy | #216
Everything we do in life has risks, to ourselves and others.


For the most part, we have 100% control over what we do and do not do. If I drive a car, there is a chance I will crash. You're right that if I ever drive a car even a little bit, there is a non-zero chance of me crashing. That is why people want to do away with abortion altogether. But if I never drive a car, there is a 0% chance I will crash. Don't abort, and there is a 0% chance of doing a bad abortion.

Some things are just necessary enough that we accept the risks, like driving. If you want to argue that abortions are necessary enough to accept the non-zero risk of a bad abortion, that's fine, but don't try to argue that everything has a non-zero risk always.

From: special_sauce | #218
An example:
You have 1000 cars. 100 of them have drugs.
The dog would have you search approximately 227 of them. 127 would not have drugs, resulting in 56% being false positives. (Presumably the dog also has some false negatives, so you search a few less, and miss some drugs.)
The COIN would have you search approximately 500 of them. 400 would not have drugs. (You also have 50 false negatives which, debatably, is worse.)
Which of these requires more time? (and thus, more tax dollars?)


What are you even talking about here? How can you search all 100 cars that have drugs, but still have false negatives? How can you assume that out of the dog's 227, or the coin's 500, all 100 drugs are present? You have no idea how many drugs you missed, in reality.

I guess I see what you're saying anyways. You're saying that it doesn't matter how many drugs you actually catch, as much as how much money you spend to do it. Which is kind of strange considering the war on drugs is supposed to stop drug use, not save money. BUT I do very much agree with you, that we need to save money, so I propose this new technique alternative to the dogs and the coin:

You have 1000 cars. 100 of them have drugs.
You search 0 of them and spend $0 and 0 hours to do so.
Now which of these is most efficient in time and money?

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foolm0ron
03/24/12 1:34:00 PM
#220:


Also I just got an RP email titled "Cupcakes"

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SmartMuffin
03/24/12 7:16:00 PM
#221:


They may be less reliable than flipping a coin, but they significantly reduce the risk of "false positives," which is what costs all the money. (EDIT: It should be noted that data for false negatives is scarce, but that false negatives don't seem to be nearly as common.)

An example:
You have 1000 cars. 100 of them have drugs.
The dog would have you search approximately 227 of them. 127 would not have drugs, resulting in 56% being false positives. (Presumably the dog also has some false negatives, so you search a few less, and miss some drugs.)
The COIN would have you search approximately 500 of them. 400 would not have drugs. (You also have 50 false negatives which, debatably, is worse.)
Which of these requires more time? (and thus, more tax dollars?)

It's humorous to think that coins are better than dogs, but it's just untrue. Especially if your argument is "we should spend less on drug-sniffing."

Uh, I don't care about the spending. I care about the violation of civil rights. Have you like NEVER read any of my posts before?

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foolm0ron
03/24/12 10:52:00 PM
#222:




RP nails every question here so calmly and thoroughly, it's pretty amazing. Other candidates would probably have to rehearse a pre-determined set of questions for hours at least to get like this.

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red sox 777
03/25/12 1:07:00 AM
#223:


Some things are just necessary enough that we accept the risks, like driving. If you want to argue that abortions are necessary enough to accept the non-zero risk of a bad abortion, that's fine, but don't try to argue that everything has a non-zero risk always.

Everything is desirable enough to take some non-zero risk.

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SmartMuffin
03/25/12 6:46:00 PM
#224:


so, here's some articles about the real effects of concealed carry

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2011/04/26/crime-rate-down-in-s-florida-hits-40-year-state-wide-low/

http://articles.boston.com/2012-03-21/opinion/31215570_1_gun-ban-ban-handguns-heller-decision

This is my favorite part...

While the University of Colorado spent much of the past decade resisting the state’s concealed-carry law, Colorado State University complied with it. If the gun controllers are right, Colorado State should have seen a surge in crime, while its gun-banning sister institution should have been an Eden of security and lawfulness. That’s not what happened. As Clayton E. Cramer and David Burnett write in a new monograph for the Cato Institute, “crime at the University of Colorado has risen 35 percent since 2004, while crime at Colorado State University has dropped 60 percent in the same time frame.’’

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red sox 777
03/25/12 7:11:00 PM
#225:


No comment on concealed carry in general, but for this specific example, small sample size and lack of info on other variables. No meaningful conclusions to draw.

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SmartMuffin
03/25/12 7:13:00 PM
#226:


From: red sox 777 | #225
No comment on concealed carry in general, but for this specific example, small sample size and lack of info on other variables. No meaningful conclusions to draw.


I believe THIS is what you're looking for!

http://www.amazon.com/More-Guns-Less-Crime-Understanding/dp/0226493660/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1332727982&sr=8-1

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TomNook7
03/25/12 7:22:00 PM
#227:


Switzerland - only proof you'll ever need.

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LordoftheMorons
03/25/12 10:57:00 PM
#228:


TomNook7 posted...
Switzerland - only proof you'll ever need.

So you live in a world where a theory is validated by consistency with one data point? That sounds pretty convenient!

(Don't want to actually get into a gun control debate, I'm just taking issue with the logic of that particular statement).

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TomNook7
03/26/12 4:53:00 AM
#229:


I was half joking, but...yes. Even though it's more about the morality of the people than it is the gun.

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Westbrick
03/26/12 5:40:00 AM
#230:


I've always found gun law debates rather trifling, because neither major position- gun bans or legal gun sale with very loose restrictions- seems appropriate to me. Shooting a gun is like driving a car: you have a right to do it, but the dangerous nature of the activity requires formal training. I'm all for handguns and the like so long as there's a fairly rigorous permit process in place.

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SmartMuffin
03/26/12 6:47:00 AM
#231:


The statistics also show that the more stringent the training requirement, the lower the benefits of concealed carry are.

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foolm0ron
03/26/12 6:50:00 AM
#232:


From: LordoftheMorons | #228
So you live in a world where a theory is validated by consistency with one data point? That sounds pretty convenient!


A theory (allowing guns = more violence) can be invalidated by one data point, yes.

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LordoftheMorons
03/26/12 9:54:00 AM
#233:


You're not comparing two data points where the only thing different is gun laws, though. There are many differences between Switzerland and whatever country you're comparing it to than the gun levels, so you can't invalidate the theory. Maybe my rate of violence is a function proportional to gun ownership, but that was also strongly negatively correlated with population homogeneity.

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foolm0ron
03/26/12 10:05:00 AM
#234:


From: LordoftheMorons | #233
Maybe my rate of violence is a function proportional to gun ownership, but that was also strongly negatively correlated with population homogeneity.


Alright, so use this as your first argument next time, instead of arguing that one data point isn't good enough in a way that implies that the data point is valid.

Obviously I agree with you here, though. Switzerland is just too different for a comparison. That article about Colorado universities is solid, though.

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Westbrick
03/26/12 11:30:00 AM
#235:


The statistics also show that the more stringent the training requirement, the lower the benefits of concealed carry are.

I'd love to see the numbers here.

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red sox 777
03/26/12 11:39:00 AM
#236:


A theory (allowing guns = more violence) can be invalidated by one data point, yes.

No. There aren't any data points where gun control is the only factor. It's not as easy to invalidate models with multiple variables.

The statistics also show that the more stringent the training requirement, the lower the benefits of concealed carry are.

Regulation is bad, so that makes sense. The more stringent the training requirement, the more opportunity there is for the state to mess things up.

Alternatively, the more stringent the training requirement, the less people have concealed carry, so the less benefits will flow from it.

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Westbrick
03/26/12 12:12:00 PM
#237:


Alternatively, the more stringent the training requirement, the less people have concealed carry, so the less benefits will flow from it.

Except that there are plenty of benefits from requiring gun permits. Household accidents are extremely common- much more likely than the odds of you ever having to protect yourself- and requiring some basic training would help curb a significant portion of this problem.

On top of that, I'm not buying the more = better suggestion. Having a few people conceal-carry who know what they're doing would make me feel a lot safer than having a couple more conceal-carry at the expense of any standard.

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red sox 777
03/26/12 12:14:00 PM
#238:


The data supports what it supports. I'm just saying that there's an easily understandable explanation for it. Which might not be the right one.

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foolm0ron
03/26/12 12:17:00 PM
#239:


How many gun accidents have occurred because of lack of training?

It's 99% of the time lack of judgment, whether it's some redneck trying to shoot a gas can in his living room, or someone forgetting to lock the gun cabinet and the dumb kid shoots himself with it (because instead of educating kids about guns, we just tell them they are evil and to stay away from them as much as possible, which works about as well as abstinence education).

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red sox 777
03/26/12 12:18:00 PM
#240:


Another possibility: people who have been "approved" by the government to use guns feel that they are safe using them and don't actually use them carefully.

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neonreaper
03/26/12 12:21:00 PM
#241:


red sox 777 posted...
Another possibility: people who have been "approved" by the government to use guns feel that they are safe using them and don't actually use them carefully.

^this

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Westbrick
03/26/12 12:21:00 PM
#242:


How many gun accidents have occurred because of lack of training?

It's 99% of the time lack of judgment, whether it's some redneck trying to shoot a gas can in his living room, or someone forgetting to lock the gun cabinet and the dumb kid shoots himself with it (because instead of educating kids about guns, we just tell them they are evil and to stay away from them as much as possible, which works about as well as abstinence education).

99%'s a little high, but this is certainly a fair point. But what makes you think that gun permits wouldn't include lessons on good judgment? Driver's ed includes lessons on drunk driving etc.

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Westbrick
03/26/12 12:23:00 PM
#243:


Oh, and:

Another possibility: people who have been "approved" by the government to use guns feel that they are safe using them and don't actually use them carefully.

This is just empty speculation. I can do it too: people who have been "approved" by the government to use guns feel a heightened sense of social responsibility, making their gun use far safer and more effective than the average without gun permits.

But apparently you guys have studies and whatnot to back these claims up, yeah?

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neonreaper
03/26/12 12:25:00 PM
#244:


just as many as you do to back up yours

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red sox 777
03/26/12 12:26:00 PM
#245:


IMO, what I wrote there is a lot less speculative than government mandated gun training including lessons on good judgment that actually manage to make a difference.

But you do realize that I'm just giving ideas for why the data might be what it is, right? You expressed surprise that the data was what it is. I'm just giving possible explanations. Having not read the source, I make no claims on the accuracy of that study. But if you think about it, it's not that surprising.

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foolm0ron
03/26/12 2:05:00 PM
#246:


Can we at least agree on this aspect: Self-regulation is ALWAYS better than government mandated regulation?

Westbrick makes a good point about driver's ed. The government has all these tests required for you to get a driver's license... and still an incredible amount of people are terrible drivers and/or have no problem driving drunk.

If tests and licenses actually meant anything, then I would be way more inclined to trust gun regulations. Though to be fair, American drivers are significantly better than drivers in other countries. I don't know why that is, exactly, but yeah. Maybe it's because we have right turns on red lights or something.

But yeah I trust the effectiveness of things like the ESRB and NRA gun training and Google/Youtube self-censorship over driving laws and drug/alcohol laws and SOPA/PIPA, etc.

Also there's that whole 2nd amendment thing

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red sox 777
03/26/12 2:26:00 PM
#247:


Self regulation has the same problem as all regulation. It is anticompetitive. The best way is competition.

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SmartMuffin
03/26/12 2:29:00 PM
#248:


If any of you are actually interested in the numbers here, you should read the book I linked, More Guns Less Crime. It's an exhaustive economic study of the benefits of concealed carry.

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LOLContests
03/26/12 4:01:00 PM
#249:


Can we at least agree on this aspect: Self-regulation is ALWAYS better than government mandated regulation?

Nope. I would much prefer a government censorship board to the MPAA for example. As it is, the MPAA ratings board is anonymous and accountable to no one. If there was a government system in its place, the members would at least be known and accountable to the public, which would be a large improvement over the current system, where any sort of change is almost impossible to implement.

Of course, no censorship board would be the theoretical best alternative, but as obscenity laws are still not considered unconstitutional, the dissolution of a national system would simply lead to multiple state/local systems instead

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SmartMuffin
03/26/12 4:30:00 PM
#250:


As it is, the MPAA ratings board is anonymous and accountable to no one. If there was a government system in its place, the members would at least be known and accountable to the public, which would be a large improvement over the current system, where any sort of change is almost impossible to implement.

Except the MPAA ratings are non-binding and fully voluntary. A government censorship panel would be literal censorship, whereas the MPAA is a voluntary association.

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