~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/
~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA
SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.
Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
"I know I'm biased about 2k4, but it is not as bad as people make it out to be.
Ryu H/Jill craziness, and then the winner somehow lost to Sora? Frog vs. Liquid Snake and then Frog vs. Master Chief? Tidus/Shadow "lol"? Snake/Tanner >_>
Late rounds were pretty boring compared to the high standards of previous contests, but Crono finally beat Mario in his third try, and there was a different winner from the previous contest (Remember, in 2004 we didn't know about THE LAW). Hell, even Frog vs. Solid **** was hilarious."
XIII_socks posted... From: FateStayAlbion | #002 Anyone acting like this match is over is crazy. At the very least it should get under 500, if not closer. It's a 1500 vote lead with these votals.
Sora's chances are...minimal. Not a lock, I guess.
Like Red Sox said, in one of the 4way matches Sora cut about 1450 off of Squalls lead with 40k something votes.
Based on Squall/Sora 2008 R3, Sora wins with 51.04%. That would give him a win of around 1000 votes.
I've never seen the actual results differ from the projection by more than 1% this late into the match (15 hours), so it's looking real bad for Squall. He better hope the ASV really has weakened a lot.
From: red sox 777 | #011 Based on Squall/Sora 2008 R3, Sora wins with 51.04%. That would give him a win of around 1000 votes.
I've never seen the actual results differ from the projection by more than 1% this late into the match (15 hours), so it's looking real bad for Squall. He better hope the ASV really has weakened a lot.
Against Dante, Sora's day vote allowed him to finish only 1% higher than his lowest overnight percentage. This is over; lower votals and the younger CoD crowd bailing on the site have resulted in a diminished ASV. Majora barely overcame 1500 against FFX in a match with almost double the votals and some Zelda rallying.
-- Yoblazer: http://i32.tinypic.com/zlf1w7.gif Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Sora/Squall R2 2008 gives us......Sora/Riku win with 50.68%. Better for Squall, but not much better, and the fact that the 2 projections are close is a bad sign for him, because it indicates neither of those matches had anomalous trends.
We'll know within an hour what's going to happen, most likely. Either Sora/Riku will be cutting with wild abandon and chopping the lead to shreds, or they won't be, in which case "good game".
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Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!)
Against Dante, Sora's day vote allowed him to finish only 1% higher than his lowest overnight percentage. This is over; lower votals and the younger CoD crowd bailing on the site have resulted in a diminished ASV. Majora barely overcame 1500 against FFX in a match with almost double the votals and some Zelda rallying.
As strange as that may have seemed, the projection based on Dante/Riku actually predicted that very well. This match certainly is not over in Squall's favor.
As strange as that may have seemed, the projection based on Dante/Riku actually predicted that very well. This match certainly is not over in Squall's favor.
Crono/Vincent (both of them) predicts a boring Squall win. Magus/Sandbag is better, and predicts a close match I think in Sora's favor, but still not as good for Sora as Squall/Sora. Yesmar mentioned earlier that that match had one of the biggest ASV swings of all time, and it's true.
Possibly. As I said, I have never seen a direct projection be off by more than 1% from 15 hours into the match. Half a percent is fairly rare. And we have 1 projection showing a 51% win for Sora, the other showing a 50.7% win for Sora. It has been 3 years since those matches took place, and I don't want to call a match against the character with a 1500 vote lead in a contest with such low votals as this one, but I'd say it's looking pretty bleak right now for Squall.
I just noticed that this is a battle between the two most annoying video game characters of all time. Good thing that Seifer and Riku also are in the poll!
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Black Turtle > Me
red sox 777 posted... I've called big comebacks that everyone else was dismissive of at least once a contest since 2009, and this contest will be no exception.
at least your the one that keeps this interesting... but seriously not gonna happen.
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Link's is pretty much the video game equivalent of the Jesus story. -- Yoblaser