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izNotPerfect 12/12/11 12:27:00 PM #52: |
12 vote cut
Gotta do better... -- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3788/ronpaul2012banner.jpg ... Copied to Clipboard!
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FateStayAlbion 12/12/11 12:28:00 PM #53: |
If Sora gets a few big cuts, like 25+ here soon, maybe I'll reconsider... but I'm not feeling good about it now. The early ASV should be one of the better times for him.
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:31:00 PM #54: |
Surely the next half hour is vital if we're going to see anything? I forget when the ASV really kicks in...dumb time difference
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red sox 777 12/12/11 12:32:00 PM #55: |
Sora's already at 52.5% in California and it's not the ASV here yet, so he'll probably get stronger as the match goes on.
-- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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GranzonEx 12/12/11 12:32:00 PM #56: |
Right about now.
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TRE Public Account 12/12/11 12:32:00 PM #57: |
Surely the next half hour is vital if we're going to see anything? I forget when the ASV really kicks in...dumb time difference
The ASV started about 30 minutes ago. -- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place ... Copied to Clipboard!
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izNotPerfect 12/12/11 12:32:00 PM #58: |
ROFL what an update
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The Mana Sword 12/12/11 12:33:00 PM #59: |
lol
-- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN ... Copied to Clipboard!
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:33:00 PM #60: |
From: TRE Public Account | #057 Ah When do americans finish school? Right on 3pm? -- http://i30.tinypic.com/16kdkbl.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 12/12/11 12:33:00 PM #61: |
Yeah, this is the ASV right now so it should be concerning that Sora's not making much progress yet, but the important thing is to look at hourly numbers and not individual updates. Individual updates have very high variance, hourly numbers are fairly reliable.
-- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:35:00 PM #62: |
From: red sox 777 | #061 Well Sora won that half-hour by 1 vote. Woo! -- http://i30.tinypic.com/16kdkbl.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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FateStayAlbion 12/12/11 12:35:00 PM #63: |
red sox 777 posted...
Yeah, this is the ASV right now so it should be concerning that Sora's not making much progress yet, but the important thing is to look at hourly numbers and not individual updates. Individual updates have very high variance, hourly numbers are fairly reliable. You mean how he's cut 1 vote since 3 pm started? -- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:35:00 PM #64: |
...dammit
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:36:00 PM #65: |
...ooh.
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TRE Public Account 12/12/11 12:37:00 PM #66: |
That was Sora's first cut that was actually on pace to make the comeback (14.6votes/update).
-- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place ... Copied to Clipboard!
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izNotPerfect 12/12/11 12:37:00 PM #67: |
holy s***
more like that please -- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3788/ronpaul2012banner.jpg ... Copied to Clipboard!
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__Smurf__ 12/12/11 12:37:00 PM #68: |
The last 30 posts or so show just how desperate people are for a match in this contest. Willing to grasp on to the slenderest of hopes.
-- Smurf, the cream of Sonic fanboyism ... Copied to Clipboard!
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izNotPerfect 12/12/11 12:40:00 PM #69: |
From: __Smurf__ | #068 Isn't every contest like that though? -- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3788/ronpaul2012banner.jpg ... Copied to Clipboard!
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FateStayAlbion 12/12/11 12:40:00 PM #70: |
Well then
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:40:00 PM #71: |
We'll see what the next update is like then...
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:41:00 PM #72: |
F***
NO! -- http://i30.tinypic.com/16kdkbl.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Janus5000 12/12/11 12:41:00 PM #73: |
oh hi 46 vote cut
-- Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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The Mana Sword 12/12/11 12:41:00 PM #74: |
ha
well, alright, that's a bit better still not happening, though. -- I wish I could wear skirts and dresses :( -GMUN ... Copied to Clipboard!
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izNotPerfect 12/12/11 12:42:00 PM #75: |
-- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3788/ronpaul2012banner.jpg ... Copied to Clipboard!
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TRE Public Account 12/12/11 12:44:00 PM #76: |
The last 30 posts or so show just how desperate people are for a match in this contest. Willing to grasp on to the slenderest of hopes.
Unless the previous close matches, the trends actually call for an outside chance at the upset. While I'm still confident in Squall, I think a match like this would get discussing in any contest not just because this one lacked upsets. -- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place ... Copied to Clipboard!
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FateStayAlbion 12/12/11 12:44:00 PM #77: |
With that update, Sora/Riku take back the lead in North America, as well.
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__Smurf__ 12/12/11 12:44:00 PM #78: |
66 cut in the first 40 minutes of the ASV? He'll drag Squall below 51% and no more. Would still expect Squall to win by over 1000.
-- Smurf, the cream of Sonic fanboyism ... Copied to Clipboard!
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FateStayAlbion 12/12/11 12:46:00 PM #79: |
29 vote cut there. We might have something!
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Janus5000 12/12/11 12:46:00 PM #80: |
94 votes in 15 minutes. Not bad.
-- Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:47:00 PM #81: |
Oh god...
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TRE Public Account 12/12/11 12:47:00 PM #82: |
66 cut in the first 40 minutes of the ASV? He'll drag Squall below 51% and no more. Would still expect Squall to win by over 1000.
65 of that came from the last 10 minutes which is the problem for Squall. -- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place ... Copied to Clipboard!
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izNotPerfect 12/12/11 12:47:00 PM #83: |
We have a ball game
-- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3788/ronpaul2012banner.jpg ... Copied to Clipboard!
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:47:00 PM #84: |
Doesn't Squall still have the SNV to fall back on?
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Kotetsu534 12/12/11 12:48:00 PM #85: |
Gotta be honest, I'm worried.
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:50:00 PM #86: |
From: Kotetsu534 | #085 My nerves are on edge. This might make me unable to enjoy raw tonight -- http://i30.tinypic.com/16kdkbl.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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The_Djoker 12/12/11 12:50:00 PM #87: |
If he's going to make a comeback and make this match interesting then i hope hope he comes back takes the lead only to lose the match by 1 vote in the last update.
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:51:00 PM #88: |
stall him. please STALL HIM.
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:51:00 PM #89: |
F***ING STOP THIS NOW
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izNotPerfect 12/12/11 12:52:00 PM #90: |
oh my god best match of the contest
-- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3788/ronpaul2012banner.jpg ... Copied to Clipboard!
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red sox 777 12/12/11 12:52:00 PM #91: |
Based on Squall/Sora 2008 R3, Sora/Riku win with 50.68%.
Based on Squall/Sora 2008 R2, Sora/Riku win with 50.56%. Gotta leave for about 5 hours now, hopefully I'll return to an exciting match. Also, the last 30 minutes demonstrates how many people still have not figured out the concept of variance. That 46 vote cut was no more noteworthy than the miniscule cuts Sora was getting earlier. -- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Janus5000 12/12/11 12:52:00 PM #92: |
In 2008, Squall and Sora seemed to roughly split the SNV. This was with Sora trailing Squall. So if they're almost 50/50 going into it...
-- Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~ ... Copied to Clipboard!
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WarThaNemesis2 12/12/11 12:52:00 PM #93: |
XIII_socks posted...
From: Kotetsu534 | #085 This might make me unable to enjoy raw tonight No, WWE will make you unable to enjoy RAW tonight! -- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png http://i.imgur.com/597oi.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:53:00 PM #94: |
We can't all be as jaded as you!
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Kyle Bowen 12/12/11 12:54:00 PM #95: |
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
XIII_socks posted... From: Kotetsu534 | #085 This might make me unable to enjoy raw tonight No, WWE will make you unable to enjoy RAW tonight! Unless CM Punk gets ample time... this. -- KB ... Copied to Clipboard!
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WarThaNemesis2 12/12/11 12:55:00 PM #96: |
I'm going to be watching Russo-era WCW instead of Raw. My favorite promotion in the world is NWA: Mountain State. My standards aren't very high!
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:56:00 PM #97: |
"that's better"
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Bigwig_rah 12/12/11 12:56:00 PM #98: |
Sure 1350 is too many votes to overcome right? Right?
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XIII_socks 12/12/11 12:57:00 PM #99: |
From: Bigwig_rah | #098 YES IT IS YES IT IS YES IT IS YES IT IS *sticks fingers in ears* -- http://i30.tinypic.com/16kdkbl.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Safer Sephiroth 777 12/12/11 12:58:00 PM #100: |
Nice match.Squall wins with at least 500 votes though.
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KingButz 12/12/11 12:59:00 PM #101: |
If Sora continues his trend from the last 30 minutes, he will take the lead with around 3 hours to go.
Enough time for him to go 50-50 during the SNV and still win. -- My Japanese alter-ego. Hey all this is Bartz btw. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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