Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1035

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izNotPerfect
12/12/11 12:27:00 PM
#52:


12 vote cut

Gotta do better...

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FateStayAlbion
12/12/11 12:28:00 PM
#53:


If Sora gets a few big cuts, like 25+ here soon, maybe I'll reconsider... but I'm not feeling good about it now. The early ASV should be one of the better times for him.

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:31:00 PM
#54:


Surely the next half hour is vital if we're going to see anything? I forget when the ASV really kicks in...dumb time difference

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red sox 777
12/12/11 12:32:00 PM
#55:


Sora's already at 52.5% in California and it's not the ASV here yet, so he'll probably get stronger as the match goes on.

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GranzonEx
12/12/11 12:32:00 PM
#56:


Right about now.

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TRE Public Account
12/12/11 12:32:00 PM
#57:


Surely the next half hour is vital if we're going to see anything? I forget when the ASV really kicks in...dumb time difference

The ASV started about 30 minutes ago.

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izNotPerfect
12/12/11 12:32:00 PM
#58:


ROFL what an update

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The Mana Sword
12/12/11 12:33:00 PM
#59:


lol

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:33:00 PM
#60:


From: TRE Public Account | #057
Surely the next half hour is vital if we're going to see anything? I forget when the ASV really kicks in...dumb time difference

The ASV started about 30 minutes ago.


Ah

When do americans finish school? Right on 3pm?

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red sox 777
12/12/11 12:33:00 PM
#61:


Yeah, this is the ASV right now so it should be concerning that Sora's not making much progress yet, but the important thing is to look at hourly numbers and not individual updates. Individual updates have very high variance, hourly numbers are fairly reliable.

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:35:00 PM
#62:


From: red sox 777 | #061
Yeah, this is the ASV right now so it should be concerning that Sora's not making much progress yet, but the important thing is to look at hourly numbers and not individual updates. Individual updates have very high variance, hourly numbers are fairly reliable.


Well Sora won that half-hour by 1 vote. Woo!

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FateStayAlbion
12/12/11 12:35:00 PM
#63:


red sox 777 posted...
Yeah, this is the ASV right now so it should be concerning that Sora's not making much progress yet, but the important thing is to look at hourly numbers and not individual updates. Individual updates have very high variance, hourly numbers are fairly reliable.

You mean how he's cut 1 vote since 3 pm started?

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:35:00 PM
#64:


...dammit

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:36:00 PM
#65:


...ooh.

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TRE Public Account
12/12/11 12:37:00 PM
#66:


That was Sora's first cut that was actually on pace to make the comeback (14.6votes/update).

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izNotPerfect
12/12/11 12:37:00 PM
#67:


holy s***

more like that please

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__Smurf__
12/12/11 12:37:00 PM
#68:


The last 30 posts or so show just how desperate people are for a match in this contest. Willing to grasp on to the slenderest of hopes.

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izNotPerfect
12/12/11 12:40:00 PM
#69:


From: __Smurf__ | #068
The last 30 posts or so show just how desperate people are for a match in this contest. Willing to grasp on to the slenderest of hopes.


Isn't every contest like that though?

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FateStayAlbion
12/12/11 12:40:00 PM
#70:


Well then

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:40:00 PM
#71:


We'll see what the next update is like then...

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:41:00 PM
#72:


F***

NO!

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Janus5000
12/12/11 12:41:00 PM
#73:


oh hi 46 vote cut

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The Mana Sword
12/12/11 12:41:00 PM
#74:


ha

well, alright, that's a bit better

still not happening, though.

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izNotPerfect
12/12/11 12:42:00 PM
#75:


external image

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TRE Public Account
12/12/11 12:44:00 PM
#76:


The last 30 posts or so show just how desperate people are for a match in this contest. Willing to grasp on to the slenderest of hopes.

Unless the previous close matches, the trends actually call for an outside chance at the upset. While I'm still confident in Squall, I think a match like this would get discussing in any contest not just because this one lacked upsets.

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FateStayAlbion
12/12/11 12:44:00 PM
#77:


With that update, Sora/Riku take back the lead in North America, as well.

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__Smurf__
12/12/11 12:44:00 PM
#78:


66 cut in the first 40 minutes of the ASV? He'll drag Squall below 51% and no more. Would still expect Squall to win by over 1000.

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FateStayAlbion
12/12/11 12:46:00 PM
#79:


29 vote cut there. We might have something!

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Janus5000
12/12/11 12:46:00 PM
#80:


94 votes in 15 minutes. Not bad.

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:47:00 PM
#81:


Oh god...

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TRE Public Account
12/12/11 12:47:00 PM
#82:


66 cut in the first 40 minutes of the ASV? He'll drag Squall below 51% and no more. Would still expect Squall to win by over 1000.

65 of that came from the last 10 minutes which is the problem for Squall.

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izNotPerfect
12/12/11 12:47:00 PM
#83:


We have a ball game

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:47:00 PM
#84:


Doesn't Squall still have the SNV to fall back on?

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Kotetsu534
12/12/11 12:48:00 PM
#85:


Gotta be honest, I'm worried.

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:50:00 PM
#86:


From: Kotetsu534 | #085
Gotta be honest, I'm worried.


My nerves are on edge.

This might make me unable to enjoy raw tonight

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The_Djoker
12/12/11 12:50:00 PM
#87:


If he's going to make a comeback and make this match interesting then i hope hope he comes back takes the lead only to lose the match by 1 vote in the last update.

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:51:00 PM
#88:


stall him. please STALL HIM.

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:51:00 PM
#89:


F***ING STOP THIS NOW

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izNotPerfect
12/12/11 12:52:00 PM
#90:


oh my god best match of the contest

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red sox 777
12/12/11 12:52:00 PM
#91:


Based on Squall/Sora 2008 R3, Sora/Riku win with 50.68%.
Based on Squall/Sora 2008 R2, Sora/Riku win with 50.56%.

Gotta leave for about 5 hours now, hopefully I'll return to an exciting match. Also, the last 30 minutes demonstrates how many people still have not figured out the concept of variance. That 46 vote cut was no more noteworthy than the miniscule cuts Sora was getting earlier.

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Janus5000
12/12/11 12:52:00 PM
#92:


In 2008, Squall and Sora seemed to roughly split the SNV. This was with Sora trailing Squall. So if they're almost 50/50 going into it...

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WarThaNemesis2
12/12/11 12:52:00 PM
#93:


XIII_socks posted...
From: Kotetsu534 | #085

This might make me unable to enjoy raw tonight


No, WWE will make you unable to enjoy RAW tonight!

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:53:00 PM
#94:


We can't all be as jaded as you!

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Kyle Bowen
12/12/11 12:54:00 PM
#95:


WarThaNemesis2 posted...
XIII_socks posted...
From: Kotetsu534 | #085

This might make me unable to enjoy raw tonight

No, WWE will make you unable to enjoy RAW tonight!


Unless CM Punk gets ample time... this.

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WarThaNemesis2
12/12/11 12:55:00 PM
#96:


I'm going to be watching Russo-era WCW instead of Raw. My favorite promotion in the world is NWA: Mountain State. My standards aren't very high!

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:56:00 PM
#97:


"that's better"

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Bigwig_rah
12/12/11 12:56:00 PM
#98:


Sure 1350 is too many votes to overcome right? Right?

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XIII_socks
12/12/11 12:57:00 PM
#99:


From: Bigwig_rah | #098
Sure 1350 is too many votes to overcome right? Right?


YES IT IS YES IT IS YES IT IS YES IT IS *sticks fingers in ears*

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Safer Sephiroth 777
12/12/11 12:58:00 PM
#100:


Nice match.Squall wins with at least 500 votes though.

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KingButz
12/12/11 12:59:00 PM
#101:


If Sora continues his trend from the last 30 minutes, he will take the lead with around 3 hours to go.

Enough time for him to go 50-50 during the SNV and still win.

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