This is my first 'bad' prediction and I'm still only off by 3%, it just seems like there's a lot of people doing pretty well early on this year. Maybe I'm just so used to starting somewhere around 40-80 and having to climb towards the top and being at the top at the start this year just doesn't feel right.
I wonder what the first toss-up match is going to be? Feels like Donkeys and Ninjas are both going to be heavy favorites as far as predictions alone go, so it is smooth sailing as far as the correct prediction goes until Phoenix/Gordon?
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I don't think the Donkey Kong team is going to be that big a favorite over the AC team.
There may also be some level of debate on the FFX matches. I think Star Fox and the Bosses will be the clear favorites but not near locks like most matches have. But I think the predictions for DK vs. AC will hover pretty close to 50%.
Well I was correct in upping my Sonic/Robotnik percentage. I just went way overboard. And decreasing 28 spots seems a lot more typical. So that's good. Don't know how I've made the top 5 at least once for 2 contests in a row >_>
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I don't think he'll be a big favorite as far as prediction percentages go, I'll probably do something like Kong 52%, but in how many actual people pick him. I can't see more than a handful of people taking Ezio there.
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When someone is giving you his opinion, you should receive it with deep gratitude even though it is worthless.
From: Leebo86 | #105 I refuse to believe people are actually voting on rivalries
The fact that X and Zero are both noticeably stronger than Captain Falcon, who's dragging dead weight with Black Shadow, makes for a really bad blowout.
Because even if they're not voting on rivalries, you're more likely to see someone who likes X or Zero more than either one of the other guys.
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I like Mega Man and X a lot but dislike Zero. Zero would have been the last character I'd vote for in this match and I don't much care either way for the F-Zero dudes. Hell, Zero would be one of the last characters I'd vote for in the entire contest.
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Blech. My x-stat math had this match at 77.2% and I figured there would be a rivalry boost for MMX/Zero on top of that, so I was going to go with lucky 7's, but after overestimating Sonic so bad (since I had no clue Catherines did decent in the vote-ins or who they were) I went conservative here with 75.33%.
Very annoyed with myself because I was pretty sure everyone was overestimating the Falcon team a lot...darn it. And I was so close to going with lucky 7's too, talked myself out of it at the last moment.
I really have no idea what to make of this next match. -We know Guybrush sucks and that Dissidia has some effect - but does Bartz have any strength whatsoever? -And does Gilgamesh's roles in FF8 and FF12 maybe increase his name recognition? -Will Guybrush's goofy pic draw more attention to him? -Will Guybrush's contest loser fame help him if no one cares about Bartz?
From: creativename | #122 My x-stat math had this match at 77.2%
I'm curious how that came about. Without looking any numbers I thought X/Zero might be in the upper 70s, but then I saw Cloud's performance and figured they couldn't do much better.
creativename posted... Blech. My x-stat math had this match at 77.2% and I figured there would be a rivalry boost for MMX/Zero on top of that, so I was going to go with lucky 7's, but after overestimating Sonic so bad (since I had no clue Catherines did decent in the vote-ins or who they were) I went conservative here with 75.33%.
Very annoyed with myself because I was pretty sure everyone was overestimating the Falcon team a lot...darn it. And I was so close to going with lucky 7's too, talked myself out of it at the last moment.
I really have no idea what to make of this next match. -We know Guybrush sucks and that Dissidia has some effect - but does Bartz have any strength whatsoever? -And does Gilgamesh's roles in FF8 and FF12 maybe increase his name recognition? -Will Guybrush's goofy pic draw more attention to him? -Will Guybrush's contest loser fame help him if no one cares about Bartz?
I have like no "gut" feeling on this next match.
I'm curious about this, considering MMX got 65% on John Price, possibly the most generic guy after Tanner, and 61% on Red, who tied with Ocelot, who I recall is the dude that got upset by Pacman of all people once upon a time. On the other hand, Captain Falcon managed to hold Cloud to 69%. Sure, there's anti-votes, but Captain Falcon outperformed both Ridley and Chris Redfield.
Xuxon posted... From: creativename | #122 My x-stat math had this match at 77.2% I'm curious how that came about. Without looking any numbers I thought X/Zero might be in the upper 70s, but then I saw Cloud's performance and figured they couldn't do much better.
Were you using 4-way X-stats or something?
This. I was blinded by Cloud's performance on Falcon. Even assuming Falcon is carrying dead weight I couldn't find the logic that would put a 60.73% and a 52.36% (I used 2k8 Zero due to being in with MM) with the same fanbase up to the 70%+ people were putting, nevermind 75%+ even if there was a rivalry boost.
Clearing I was majorly wrong. I just still can't see what was so bad about my logic =/
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time
From: Xuxon | #123 I'm curious how that came about. Without looking any numbers I thought X/Zero might be in the upper 70s, but then I saw Cloud's performance and figured they couldn't do much better.
Were you using 4-way X-stats or something?
Well I didn't want to give up my secret :) I think perhaps I shouldn't share this info but oh well ^_^ I simply used the vote-ins. I had no idea Catherine/Katherine did well in the vote-ins until after the Sonic match started:
Captain Falcon vs. Black Shadow wouuld be at 9.31%/(9.31%+11.92%)=43.853% against Catherine/Katherine. When I was doing my math Catherine/Katherine was at about 26% against Sonic/Robotnik.
So that would give Sonic/Robotnik 77.2% against Falcon/Shadow. And MMX/Zero were certainly going to be stronger than Sonic/Robotnik - MMX is probably around equal to Sonic and Robotnik is garbage compared to Zero.
So I was thinking 77% would be a floor here because I figured Falcon/Shadow were for whatever reason horribly weaksauce, and not as strong as Falcon in 1v1s. I actually really wanted to put 80% but that seemed too risky so I figured I'd do 77.77%. Everyone else was going so much lower though so I pussied out at 75.33% :(
I completely forgot about the vote-ins. Or rather I never looked at them so figured Falcon was an automatic entry. Serves me right for not paying attention to the preliminary contest stuff.
Thanks CN. Least now I know there something I overlooked and not just utter bafflement at what happened!
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time
I was completely ignorant of the vote-ins as well until after the Sonic match started, thus I greatly overestimated Sonic. I didn't realize that the Catherines actually resisted a doubling from the Bosses.
And even though vote-ins are very unreliable and quite hit-and-miss when it comes to reliable x-stats, I figure if you lose comfortably to the Catherines you pretty much suck. And MMX/Zero should be significantly stronger than Sonic/garbage.
Alas, I was too afraid to have faith in my own logic. Other people going so damn low on that match confused and frightened me...
Somehow I didn't drop as much as I was expecting on the previous match. Only 3 places for me. Today isn't good for me either, but at least my prediction is going to be closer to the consensus though.
And man, I wasn't expecting Bartz/Gilgamesh to even make a run for 65%, considering Vincent got 77% on Guybrush back in 2010. Assuming we are seeing the same Guybrush that got killed by Vincent in 2010, the x-stats project Vincent to get 68.60% on Bartz/Gilgamesh. I think Vincent could probably do that on Bartz, so I could have ended up with a good prediction if I had done some x-stat calculations before this match started.
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CONFESSION: on my alt bracket I actually chose Guybrush/LeChuck. You may now proceed to throw rotten fruit at me. My theory was that Bacon would select original Amano artwork for Bartz and Gilgamesh.... which obviously didn't happen. Don't know what I was thinking there! I had Bartz on my regular bracket, though.
The gap is too large for any pictures to over the difference, of course, but the match could have at least been closer.
I picked Guybrush in the Oracle Challenge, too, but then again I enjoy being bold rather than trying to make good picks, only to screw up. And THAT is why I am #19 today and will be like #80 tomorrow. ;)
Maybe I should have reconsidered taking this contest seriously. I have a good talent with predicting "new" kinds of contests. For instance, the 2003 Oracle Challenge, the first games contest, the first 4-way contest.... I did pretty well on all of those. The only reason I did well on those is because everyone was so clueless. ;) Well, I did do poorly on the series contest.... but that was because I was trying to estimate series' strengths based on individual games and characters. BIG mistake there!
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