From: ImTheMacheteGuy | Posted: 3/26/2011 7:21:55 PM | #150 I'm absolutely liking Andrea more and more every episode. While she chills with the 2 useless girls, she also pulls her own weight. She's criticized their behavior but still hangs out with them and gets along. She not only has been acknowledged and complimented by Phillip but he approached her about possibly working together at some point. An Andrea+Phillip alliance would be very pleasing to me. If the two of them could get Grant to turn on Rob (with Matt's help upon his probable return) and then get rid of the dumb girls, I could easily see a final 3 of Andrea, Phillip and Grant, with the guys embarassing themselves in front of the jury (Phillip talking all crazy and getting weird looks and Grant pulling a Mick and really having nothing to say) and Andrea winning it all.
I don't see Zapatera fitting in to anything at all. I see them further dwindling and then walking out one at a time after the merge like lambs to the slaughter. Robfather keeps Omatepe united before Andrea and co. backstab him once the Zaps are history. A few may linger as non-threats but I don't think any of them will be relevent.
My prediction: Next 7 to go are Zaps and Rob in any order with Matt coming back at some point. Andrea, Matt, Phillip and Grant taking charge as the dominant alliance at some point during that. Spa girls get peaced out after the bigger threats, with Matt also getting cut loose. Andrea wins over Phillip and Grant in the end.
Very plausible. Jeff did mention this next to his thoughts on Grant, "At this point he believes in Rob 100%. So long as that lasts, these two could go deep. But if that trust is ever broken, my hunch is that Grant will turn on Rob and vote him out."
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Stop being dumb and start being awesome. -LiselTestify
...the one night of pleasure Zapatera got for ousting Russell, turned into days of misery. Unity crumbled. David's relationship with Sarita got so bad that he joined forces with Stephanie. At Ometepe, Rob has a HII in his pocket - along with most of his tribe. But Phillip has a love/hate relationship with Rob. And when Rob tried to hide a HII clue from Phillip, it was all out war. Ometepe won 3/4 past challenges, while Zap went to TC, with David/Steph voting Sarita, and everyone else voting Steph.
ZAPATERA NIGHT 16
Steve says that a lot of feelings were thrown around tonight, David says he's not even worried about. David tells us that he voted for Sarita. He said he did so to make his position known. He says that if it's the end of him, then so be it. Sarita tells us that tonight was bad, as the alliance of 6 did have a major hole in it. David went to the dark side. Steve tells us that this is the 6 they wanted back on Day 1. But there's a big rift between David and Sarita. He tells us that David is being a slight antagonist, but hopefully he can put his ego and pride aside for the good of the team.
Shortened Opening Credits
REDEMPTION ISLAND DAY 17
Stephanie opens up the scene by flushing her edit down the toilet, telling Matt all about the food she wants to eat. Matt tells us that she's kind of annoying. He really just wants to start the duel (for his God), and that he's in it for the long haul.
OMETEPE DAY 17
Andrea reads the treemail. Phillip says he wants to go to the duel, Rob decides to go with him. Phillip tells us he's going to the duel, that he doesn't trust Rob anymore after the reward incident. He quotes a Japanese author, saying how what you want to do is let your enemy move first - and that's Robs weakness, he likes to be controlling. He says that nobody is gonna control him. We then see Rob tell Phillip he needs to wear a shirt to the duel. Rob tells us that he has to babysit Phillip for the day because Phillip has a big mouth and can't be trusted. "[sic]He's dangerous[sic] because of his stupidity[sic] and is probably the most unaware person I've ever met in my entire life."
Matt and Stephanie enter. (Interestingly enough, Probst speaks specifically to Matt only) Probst comments on Matt's stay on RI, how he's won 4 duels, now he's in a "do or die" situation - ready to get to it? (Why is this only directed at Matt? The answer is obviously coming - because Stephanie loses. Regardless, I still find it interesting how it's do or die for both of them, yet Probst addresses Matt only) Matt wins the duel. Jeff asks Steph about how it feels to lose, Steph cries and says it's difficult to let go of a dream of reaching the end. Stephanie starts barking on who she doesn't think deserve to be here, she names Sarita. She tells Ralph that if he wants to play the game, she has to get rid of her. She says not to vote out David because he can do puzzles, she asks if he wants to take on that responsibility, he says if he has to, he will. Probst encourages Stephanie to say something to Rob/Phillip. She says that Zap is gonna try to take out Rob first, so he needs to watch his back, and not to trust anyone on Zap. She also says to try and win Matt back. Steph leaves the game. Jeff asks Phillip about Matt, Phillip says he's very impressed, quoting the Bushido Code, saying that Matt is a samurai warrior. Rob tells us that 'little' Phillip couldn't keep his mouth shut, "[sic]and I'm telling you[sic] when the merge is coming[sic] Phillip is ready to make a big move - and by big move, he means getting Rob out."
OMETEPE DAY 17
Rob and Phillip are picking up sticks on the beach, and Phillip asks Rob if he wants him to withhold info from the tribe. Rob says he doesn't want to, he wants everyone to feel like one cohesive unit. Rob says he's been straight so far, he's not gonna start that game. Rob tells us what Phillip asked him. He says he wasn't upset, he was hoping for it. He can use it as ammunition to throw Phillip under the bus. Rob tells his tribe about the duel. Rob continues on to tell us that he wants the tribe to be on the same page, for them to know that the target is on him, so that they feel safe, and that everyone is still against Phillip. Rob tells his tribe about Phillip thinking about withholding information. Rob says that Phillip is gonna flip at the first opportunity. Rob continues on to tell us that with Phillip around, he's free to do what he needs to do. Rob says that he'd be willing to tell Phillip straight up that he's gonna vote him out next.
ZAPATERA DAY 17
We open to the tribe asking Ralph/David how Stephanie was. David defends Stephanie's behavior as she left the duel. They ask about Matt, Ralph says that Matt is sticking with Orange. He then says that David would probably do the same too. Ralph tells us that he believes David will flip come a merge. Steve tells us that David is getting tough to stomach, that he's telling Ralph we need to fish when Ralph already knows what to do. Julie says that David is bugging her. She wants to tell him to shutup. Sarita says she wants to punch him in the face. Sarita tells us that David's social game isn't very good. Ralph tells us that David might be smart, but it doesn't take a smart person to win this game.
We open to the tribe eating rice. Natalie is telling Grant that she wanted to save some of the rice for Rob. Phillip says he'd like a scoop, but Natalie says this portion is for Rob. Phillip gets annoyed and complains, saying everyone is entitled to an equal share as everyone made it. Phillip tells us that the entire debacle is asinine. He says he's sick of them holding Rob up to a higher level. He says that the first opportunity he has to eliminate Rob, he will. We see Natalie report to Rob about the incident, Rob just says "oh well." Phillip continues on to tell us that he's the elder citizen of the tribe, and in the real world he'd get the deference (respect), but instead he's treated like a black sheep. He says he's SICK of it, and that there's a division in this tribe, and it's because of them, not him.
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE
It happens. Ometepe wins. Phillip tells us that his tribe is superior, that they found a way to win.
(Instead of hearing from a Zap at the end, we get Phillip telling us that Ometepe is gonna find a way to win. Sounds like what I'm expecting - an Ometepe domination)
REWARD TRIP
We open to the tribe holding each others hands as they fly in a chopper over the landscape. Rob tells us that he's played Survivor 4 times, but he's never landed on an active volcano. He says it's the coolest thing ever. Grant tells us that he's literally sitting on the edge of a volcano, that he could fall in and never be heard from again. (Editing humor) Phillip tells us that he felt great, that he usually doesn't feel like he's included, but today on the trip he felt like a community with them. Rob tells us that he had an idea where the HII clue would be, and he was right. He says he doesn't need the clue, and the proceeds to throw it into the volcano.
ZAPATERA DAY 18
Mike tells us that the challenge was awesome, but the outcome sucked. They're now down in numbers. Sarita and all but David gather and talk. She asks them if they're okay getting rid of him. Mike says he hasn't seen David actually do any of the puzzles. Sarita tells us she's voting for David. Sarita and Ralph are shown talking, Sarita explaining why David should go. Ralph agrees. Sarita tells us that she thinks David has a good chance of beating "boy wonder" on RI. David tells us he's nervous about tonight, not sure what's gonna happen. He says his tribe might not value trust as much as strength. Mike tells us that Sarita struggled at the challenge, but David came through for them. Mike lays it on Ralph why he thinks Sarita should go at this point. Mike tells us that Sarita is trustworthy but not strong in challenges, David is a thinker, can help with challenges, but harder to trust. He says his tribe is in a tail-spin, and they're a few thousand feet before they crash and burn, so they gotta figure a way out.
Jeff asks Ralph whats happened to the tribe. Ralph said they were ahead, but the challenge at the end... Jeff pipes in, asks David to finish the sentence "Excuses are for..." David says "losers." Ralph calls himself a loser. Jeff asks Julie about throwing the challenge, Julie said it was all bad karma, they thought they were stronger, could spare throwing the challenge. Jeff asks David about cohesiveness, David says that when they had Russell, they banded together to oust him. Ometepe looks to be all friends. Jeff asks Ralph about cohesiveness, Ralph says he doesn't know what that means. Jeff outlines the question, asking if he'd rather have a strong unit that doesn't work well together, or a weaker unit that does work well together. Ralph disagrees. He says he'd rather have the ones that don't get along well, that work harder. Steve disagrees, saying he'd rather have a group that works well. He says that's what they have now. Jeff says that Steph/Krista and David would disagree, Steve says that's why Steph/Krista are gone. Jeff asks David about defending Stephanie, if it makes him a target, David says absolutely, but he gave his word to Stephanie to help her, and he didn't want to break that. Jeff asks Sarita about David keeping his word, making him possibly loyal, and Sarita says that doesn't work for her, because she still trusts the Zap 6. David says he trusts the Zap 6 as well, but not her. Sarita says she was surprised to see him write her name down last tribal, that she'd never do that. She got annoyed with him David says that she's basically saying there was no alliance between the two of them, but she'd still carry on with the Zap 6. Sarita says he flipped on the order of what was supposed to happen. David says he didn't, he went with what was best for the tribe. Jeff says that this time there's no Steph/Krista, so now Sarita is gunning for David. Sarita hesitates to answer, David says of course. He says he didn't go around pleading his case, because everyone has their mind made up already.
Sarita votes David, saying she was always honest, but it's unfortunate. David votes Sarita, saying he hopes she loves RI as much as he loves writing her name down. Sarita gets voted out 4-2, she's shocked. David tells her not to get too confident.
Jeff leaves them saying that if there was ever a question if this tribe was cohesive, the answer is no.
- The Tribes -
Zapatera is a big question mark on cohesiveness in the coming merge, and from what we can gather, they're going to go right into a tailspin.
Matt the samurai, Rob the shogun leader, this is going to be the focal point of the merge with the inevitable Matt return. I foresee Matt joining up with Rob and forgiving him of his... sins, though Rob may not be too keen on keeping him around for long.
- The Characters -
Sarita - Losing the duel because she's weak in challenges and never got her footing in the outdoors. End scene.
Julie - Karma karma karma karma karma karmaeleon will do her in.
Mike - As narrator, Mike told us the choice facing the group and how they were in a tail-spin. Therefore, the decision was put on his shoulder and we cannot help but question its validity. Now is the time a tribe needs loyalty and, if you are going to eliminate a loyal player, don’t blindside her. Redemption Island means that she could return so why anger her? With the coming merge, Mike will be a big target as he is the strongest man without an immunity idol on the minority tribe.
Steve - The diplomat of Zapatera, the man has no long-term ties to anyone. No substance to declare or story to look toward.
Ralph - He told us he was a loser. He told us he was a loser.
David - Despite nobody trusting him to stick around come the merge, we saw that David was all about Zapatera this episode and probably will be going forward. Because he makes moves that serve to profit the tribe, he will probably not make any moves that profit himself, and that may be his biggest crutch.
Ashley - No tie-ins or a story or anything. Not that we hold our breath for her chances anyway.
Grant - We hear about his enjoyment of the reward, but overall there's no substance outside of him being a challenge beast. You just know that SEG would have edited this man to be much more if he came up with win given his dominant stature. What kills Grant the most is that we never hear about how he's dominant in challenges, or that he's a great guy all around, or anything about him whatsoever. You'd think we'd hear more about him, but there's no outside - and rarely inside - commentary, and that's bad.
Phillip - A forsaken warrior? We got more touching sides to Phillip, followed by lots of time undermining his efforts. He is a fool character with a loaded gun - but who will he shoot?
Andrea - A lack of separation from the other women this episode didn't speak well for her, but with Matt returning, we can still hold our breath to see where she goes.
Matt - There was a strong indication that Matt would head to RI in the opening episode with his reaction, and it's been getting clearer that he was gonna return as the weeks went by, so now the spotlight may be on him this upcoming episode. Where will his edit go now that he's returned? I foresee him forgiving Rob and still maintaining a follower status, though whether he gets blindsided again or not is still up for debate. We have seen that the strategy of praying can be a winning one - at least on RI - so will it continue to reward him? Phillip has called him a true samurai warrior - will he be noble to the end, forgiving of whatever comes his way, forgiving of his leader Rob - as a true samurai would?
Rob - Rob has had his path carved since episode 1, and it seems we're slowly following it everywhere he goes. I was a bit concerned in seeing him underestimate Phillip, telling us he views Phillip as unaware only to have Phillip tell us how aware he was moments before. Rob isn't being shown as over-confident or overly cocky or headed for a fall because we hear about his worries and his strategy to overcome them, but I do still wonder why we haven't seen any moments of HII discussion from anyone within his tribe - is it to show his control, or to setup for a possible revolt?
Either way, he's a strong contender for the win, and this merge episode will strongly indicate to us of the remaining contestants that stand a chance - Rob, Matt, Andrea - who will probably win, and who will fall, and why.
-- ~*~*The Greater Good of Survivor*~*~ http://tinyurl.com/6kv83lj
I still see Dave jumping ship and Mike SHOULD be the target. He should be perceived as the strongest Zap and I think Stephanie's words about Steve will be prophetic and he'll be relatively weak in challenges. Julie could do well and put a target on her back too, but I think it will be Mike before her. I see Ralph mostly being a buffoon.
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RIP Caelus, 8/1/01-2/28/11 The old account had to be retired :D
I see mike going for being "a nice guy" and a challenge threat....but David could also go if he does try any flipping sort of nonsense, because Rob might figure just to get rid of the guy who is trying to mix things up. Also because Ralph has the idol and David is who he is least likely to give it to. I also could see Ralph going if they are ballsy enough to target him and he doesn't play the idol. I think julie and steve should be safe, especially since steve is being edited as weaker.
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I'm "kind of a big deal". http://i69.photobucket.com/albums/i52/princess_anri/CylcoandAnri.png
Would "no pick" for the boot have gotten me points this week? Because I was thinking of doing that based on this very scenario but I both second guessed myself and was too lazy to try and figure out if "no pick" would be how one would cover this vote >_<
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RIP Caelus, 8/1/01-2/28/11 The old account had to be retired :D
From: ImTheMacheteGuy | Posted: 4/6/2011 8:03:44 PM | #170 Would "no pick" for the boot have gotten me points this week? Because I was thinking of doing that based on this very scenario but I both second guessed myself and was too lazy to try and figure out if "no pick" would be how one would cover this vote >_<
I don't know, but either way Naomi, nice pick for immunity!
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“Against ignorance, even gods struggle in vain.”
Also, I find it amusing that Probst said in his pre-season assessment how Sarita would be a big threat is she makes it past the merge.
Pre-season analysis:
Francesca - Has a mouth 1 Russell - Loyal if you're on his side 0 Kristina - Infectious, "will play a tough game", "will make big moves to try to win" 2 Krista - Questionable, bold? "What is she capable of?" 1 Stephenie - "First out" 1 Sarita - Confident, "should last a while", big threat past merge 1
Matt - Like Fabio, but country, may also have a mask 1 Julie - No "BS", enthusiastic 1 Mike - Strategic player, "could make it far", "has social skills to win" 0 Andrea - All about how she has more going on than meets the eye 1 Phillip - Questionable character 1 Natalie - Young, a wildcard 1 Steve - Enthusiastic, maybe social 1 Ashley - "Good chance of staying around", not dumb or naive 1 David - Smart, cocky 1 Grant - Conflicted on who he may be 0 Ralph - Likable, hardworker (strong sense that he'll be a Coach-like character) 3 Rob - He's actually a hero, guys 0
I think we can draw some conclusions from this, despite it being so little. And I mean that based on seeing how the 6 pre-merge boots wound up.
...On Ometepe, Matt and Andrea bonded from the start, but Rob saw them as a threat. Matt went to RI, where he beat everyone. Under Rob's leadership, Ometepe was flying high. Even Phillip was feeling a part of the team. And Rob has a HII. On Zapatera, Ralph also had a HII. But his tribe lost the challenge. Sarita - loyal, or David - better at challenges, they chose to keep David. Zapatera is now hoping for a little redemption of their own.
ZAPATERA DAY 18
Zapatera returns from voting off Sarita, saying they blindsided her. Julie tells us they blindsided Sarita because she was weak at challenges. She says that Zapatera needs to now win 2 more. David tells Ralph he understands why Ralph put his name down. Steve says that they gotta win the next challenge, "nobody likes a landslide." (and they didn't get one either!)
REDEMPTION ISLAND
Sarita arrives. Matt tells us that Sarita arrived. He was happy to see her because he can probably beat her. Sarita tells Matt that Zapatera is full of good people. Sarita tells us that she told Matt about the intricacies of Zapatera. Sarita tells Matt that he should align with Mike. Matt tells us that he thinks Sarita should be the last duel for him before the merge. He says that he'd been thinking about going with Ometepe, but if he wins the duel, maybe he could take down Ometepe also.
Opening Credits (always shortened from here on out according to Jeff)
OMETEPE DAY 19
Rob reads treemail. Phillip tells us that he thinks the tribes are merging. Rob says they should bring their stuff to the duel. He thinks they're going to the Zap beach. Phillip thinks they'd come to Ometepe. Rob says Phillip is a gambling man, Phillip says he is. Rob says it's better to be safe than sorry. Phillip tells us that he used to feel like an outsider, but now he's learned a lot from Rob. [sic]This is a whole new game now. We've got the numbers.[sic]And if it is a merge, I'm very comfortable staying with the Ometepe tribe.[sic] (so much manipulation)
ZAPATERA DAY 19
Zapatera figures there's a merge. Mike tells us that he wants to sink his teeth into some Ometepe members. Rob is the obvious target, a master of the game. He wants to go toe-to-toe with him.
REDEMPTION ISLAND
Matt tells us he's nervous because he cut his foot. But God gave him this platform and he's going to win. Sarita tells us she's brimming with confidence and that she's a worthy opponent.
Jeff reveals that the winner goes back in the game. Rob tells us that if Matt wins, it's no good for him because he sent Matt there in the first place. He thinks Matt would defect to the other team. Jeff describes the challenge. Jeff asks Phillip in the middle of the challenge what needs to be done to be successful. He quotes the Bushido code, and then we get transitions into clouds several times. He says that it's all mental, and that if Matt can recognize that, he'll be just fine. He also mentions letting your opponents move first and then striking them down in return. Matt wins and returns to the game. Sarita is eliminated. Jeff announces the merge. The tribes hug each other and introduce themselves. New beach for the merged tribe. Redemption Islands starts again. Jeff says that Matt could be voted out again next. Matt jokingly tells everyone to give him a minute. Matt tells us he's stoked to be back. He says he has an advantage with all the information he's gathered, but he has to be careful, because one slip up (zing!) and you're gone.
The tribe arrives to a feast. Julie tells us how awesome it was. Steve details the food. Rob creates a fake name for the merge. Rob tells us it means nothing, it's an inside joke between him and Amber. The tribe gets to building the new shelter. Grant tells us that he first thought it was a pain, but it's also a nice icebreaker. Matt asks Grant why they voted him out, Grant says because they thought he would go with Kristina. That's it. Mike tells us that Matt is the lynchpin. That he has no loyalty to Ometepe. [sic]He says that Matt and Andrea have a bond, so he's gotta make a move, as he doesn't want to sit back and get taken out at the hands of [sic]Boston Rob[sic]. We see a spider in fast-time building a web, with Mike telling Matt that if Rob gets what he wants, it's just gonna be Zapatera leaving, and then Matt/Andrea. He says that Matt/Andrea are the biggest chess pieces, that they can go to the final four with him if they help him. Matt tells us that he's trying to figure out what to do. Last time he coasted, now he can't be passive. Mike extends the HII to Matt if he wants it. Matt says he's gotta talk with Andrea, and Mike says it's in her best interest as well.
MURLONIO NIGHT 20 (where the heck was night 19/day 20?!)
We open to a disgruntled Zapatera tribe huddled under the shelter. Steve tells us that the weather was bad and the shelter was never finished, so they're getting drenched. He says it's only hitting Zap's people, that Ometepe is all under the tarp. There's a division between them. He hopes that Andrea and Matt switch sides, otherwise they're dead. We see baby turtles moving on a beach, and then Matt and Andrea discussing Matt's blindside. Andrea said she had no idea it was gonna happen, Matt says she's his closest ally. Matt says he wants to take out the Ometepe tribe. He wants to vote out Steve first, then Phillip, so Ometepe feels safe, and then they blindside Rob. Matt says this game respects big moves, Andrea says she's tight with Rob and Grant, that she has to make it seem like she's still that way. Matt says only the two of them will talk about this. Andrea says they can't say anything, and that she has no problem backstabbing those two because they did it first. Andrea tells us that she likes Matt, but he wants to blindside[sic] the Ometepe tribe[sic] and [sic] in the back of her mind she was thinking "this could be bad." She says it's extremely risky at this point to jump ship, but she's keeping her options open.
MURLONIO DAY 21
We open to Mike reading the Bible, with Matt asking him what he's reading. Mike says that he's reading Matthew, the story of Jesus' escape to Egypt. He asks Matt if Jesus fasted for 40 days and 40 nights, and if that isn't the same amount of time as Survivor. Matt says it may sound crazy but after he beat Stephanie he felt like God wanted him to win Redemption Island. Matt tells us he was put here for a reason: to honor his God. So he's morally conflicted because he cares about the old Ometepe tribe, but at the same time his heart is telling him not to blindside them, and to stick with them instead. Mike reads some more saying it's just beautiful language. Rob is on the side smiling, saying he should probably get in on the convo, but he doesn't have too much to add. Rob tells us that there's a "Christian Coalition" brewing, and that he's got nothing against God, but any time a group of individuals bond over the same thing, he doesn't like that. He says that Mike may think he's already gonna grab one or two of them, but that Rob can't let that happen. He says that Mike should be the first sent to RI.
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE
Jeff explains the challenge. Natalie wins, does a little jig. Mike tells us that if Matt joins forces with the Ometepe tribe, it could be him going to RI.
Everyone congratulates Natalie on her win. Mike tells Rob that his feet went numb, and then he just fell off. Mike tells us that the challenge today was a battle, he hung in for a while, but it didn't happen. This first vote is gonna be a big one, and he might be on the chopping block. Mike tells the former Zapatera that he thinks it's either gonna be him or Ralph they target because he did at the immunity challenge. Mike asks Ralph if he's cool playing the HII, Ralph says he is. Mike says that Rob is gonna know he's being targeted, so it may be best to target Grant instead. Then they reel Matt in and they're good.
Matt and Rob are sitting on a rock by the ocean, Matt says he's grown a lot from being on RI. Matt tells us that this is a game, but his heart is telling him not to change. He wants to honor his God and be true to who he is. He says he doesn't want to flip, he's just gonna have to accept whatever happens. God's Will will take him as far as He wanted him to go. Matt tells Rob about Mike's plan for himself/Andrea/Matt/Ralph/Steve. Matt says it's a cool idea, but he's with Ometepe. Rob tells us that Matt just told him he was thinking about flipping. He gets peeved, saying how Matt has the audacity to come up with a plan to vote him out, then the stupidity to tell him, it confirms he can't be trusted, and needs to go back to RI. Matt says it was a good plan, but morally he couldn't decide. Andrea then shows up. Matt tells her that he came clean to Rob, that they're not flipping. Andrea tells us that yesterday Matt and her decided to tell nobody, and now he's throwing her under the bus. She says it was so stupid, it could have sabotaged her plan to reach the final 3. Rob proposes voting Mike, Matt says he's swinging for the fences in the first inning, so he then suggest maybe Steve or Julie. Matt says Steve. Rob says Steve doesn't do anything anyway.
Rob talks with Natalie, not saying what to do, but merely implying it. He says to vote for Matt. She laughs. Rob says that Matt/Andrea were gonna join up with Zapatera. Rob says Matt is trying to "get them again". Rob then talks to Grant, Grant says that Matt is such a good guy.. hesitates to vote for him, but Rob says he can still be a good guy on RI. Rob talks to Ashley, saying he's playing both sides still. Ashley says he's being too nice, same thing the first time around. Matt is shown saying he feels slightly ostracized. Mike says that Matt is getting paranoid, knowing he may be on the chopping block for Ometepe. Mike says to Matt that he and Andrea need to join Zap because Rob has them in the pecking order. Phillip asks Rob who to vote for. Rob says Matt. Rob then asks Matt to join him in building the shelter. Mike tells the Zap tribe that Matt doesn't know what's going on, and that Rob just snagged him up. Mike says he's gonna write a note to Matt. Mike slips Matt the note. Matt then goes on a walk and reads the note- an offering to go to the final 3 with Mike. Matt tells us that Mike slipped him a note, a golden ticket to the final 3. So he's now at the crossroads between keeping his word and breaking it. Matt shows Andrea the note, she asks him what he's thinking, the possibility of him doing something crazy tonight. Matt says he doesn't want to, but this is his last chance. Rob asks his tribe where Matt and Andrea went. Rob tells us that tonight's vote is monumental. He says Matt should be going home, but if Matt/Andrea flip, he's in trouble. Rob approaches Andrea and says that they're voting Matt, wanting her to as well. Andrea tells us that Rob wants her to vote Matt, but that she trusted him once before and she got screwed over for it. [sic]"So... it might be the wisest move to [sic]flip[sic] Matt[sic] because... I could be the next to go." She says that on the other hand, Matt's sketchy and flighty(?), so she's not sure what to do.
Jeff asks Ralph what it's like to have 12 people in one camp. Ralph says it's rough, like two teams. No talking. One way and the other. Rob says it's crazy, nobody says anything to each other. Jeff asks David if this is what he expected. He says it's odd. They got the bad side of the shelter, Ometepe was under the tarp, they got the palm fronds, and were soaking wet within 5 minutes. Ashley cuts in saying they won the tarp. David says that they won a challenge where her opponent didn't try. Jeff asks him if he means they threw the challenge, David says yes. Phillip says that's the distinction between the tribes. David gets annoyed. Phillip gets annoyed with David interrupting. Phillip says Ometepe would never "not try". He then alludes to some Zapatera as being vile. Everyone laughs at the comment. Phillip looks proud. Ashley says it is two different tribes, but she doesn't dislike any of them as people. Everyone is just being loyal. Jeff says to Matt that he's fresh back into the game and he comes into this. Matt says it was easier on RI, not having people around. Says he's had some wild tribal councils, having a funny feeling about the place. Jeff asks Mike about the numbers, with Matt in the middle. Mike says Matt is in the middle, the big vote. He says they're gonna see where everyone stands after this vote. Jeff asks Ralph what he does to convince Matt. Ralph says be good to him, tell him they'll take him farther, his old tribe voted him out once, they'll do it again. Jeff says to Matt that it's a fair argument. Matt says it's fair, that he's on the bottom at Ometepe, and that he's starting to see the whole picture.
No votes are revealed, but a lot of time is spent on Matt's contemplation of who to vote for. (We also get to see Matt/Andrea being paired with the twin tree frogs again, having Andrea go up and vote, then the tree frogs shown, and then Matt goes up... yay frogs) Ralph plays his HII on Mike. Matt gets voted out 6-5-1, with his lone vote on Steve.
We hear Steve say "let the fireworks begin", David say "genius is what that was", and Julie say "that poor kid."
Jeff leaves them saying that that was a first, but now Matt is heading to RI and one of the 11 of them will be facing him next, and forgiveness... not gonna be on his mind.
Matt arrives on RI saying he doesn't know what happened. He put his trust in God, but God's Will was contradictory to what he wanted. He likes everyone but they don't want to be his friend, and apparently he's just not very good at this game.
- The Characters -
It really doesn't take a lot to figure who's in contention and who's dead in the water. But, for the sake of analysis, let's recap:
Julie - She told us about the merge feast. There's no substance here.
Mike - Stepped up to be the leader of Zapatera - but this is probably the worst time to do that. Down in numbers at the merge. He's ready to fight Boston Rob but all signs point to him losing that battle. In one confessional, he tells us he has to make a move to avoid BRob taking him out. He then later talks about how he may be going to RI. He absorbed a bit of Matt's Christianity story which may bode well if he were to face Matt. Mike vs. Matt on RI, possible? Either way, Mike is going there.
David - Had no confessionals, very little screen time, a terrible merge episode. Bad timing to drop into the background. He's with Zapatera.
Steve - He highlights the food, which, if that's all he has, isn't very telling. However, he also indicated that Zapatera is a dead tribe when talking about the rain hitting only the Zap members at night. He said that if Andrea and Matt don't flip, they're dead. Andrea and Matt didn't flip, so they're dead.
Ralph - Also had a terrible merge episode with no confessionals and very little screen time. Shown willing to give up his idol for the greater good, we learned that his move was a mistake. As figured, he didn't use the idol effectively. And we heard nothing from him about using it. The suspense wasn't in his corner, and likewise, he is just a pawn.
Ashley - Stuck up, representing the lack of a social game for Ometepe's treatment of Zapatera. She had no confessionals, little screen time, no development.
Grant - We saw Grant do two things, first he complained about building the shelter but said it's a good icebreaker, then he was shown lying to Matt on the reason he was voted out. Whether Grant was telling the truth in actuality isn't the point, because the story told us that BRob wanted Matt out due to his social game. Grant still has no substance or story and is floating along for the time being.
Phillip - Not a good merge episode given he's been so against Rob. Suddenly he's now telling us he's learned from Rob. Little screentime and his only confessionals highlighted the upcoming merge and that he was gonna stick with Ometepe. He has no consistency and his "samurai" storyline was shown to be more of a farce than anything serious.
Natalie - Despite winning the first individual challenge we heard nothing from her. A winner would be heard from! She is no Natalie White.
Matt - We lost one of our viable winner's in this episode, and it was Matt. Spending so much time this season wondering how Matt would fare after all of his duels and positive editing, turns out he'd just flub on it. He could have turned against his ouster but instead fell on his sword by accident for him. We heard he was "sketchy" and "flighty" by his closest ally, BRob called him stupid, and he then went out telling us he's just not very good at the game. He's a positive hero who doesn't know how to play cunning, which is his downfall. Not the winner, but he may last for another duel or two depending on who he faces. Some say he may go on to return again, which isn't an idea that's out of the running, but this episode did not set us up for that at all. Next episode should hopefully tell us whether Matt has it in him to survive once more or if he's out of gas.
Andrea - There was so much manipulation with her. She had a great merge episode detailing us her thoughts on everything she was involved in, as well as possible outcomes. This could have been Matt's episode because he returned and then left, but we still heard a lot from her side of the story about it all, something that shouldn't be ignored. Her switch on Matt wasn't shown as a betrayal as we heard from her why it would be a good decision. Her story has always been above Matt's and both she and Rob have spoken of her strategically as separate from Matt. Two episodes ago we heard her talking about separating from Matt, how Matt was "long gone", and now we see why. We are seeing her story unfold in pieces. We heard that Matt throwing her under the bus "could" have thrown her plans off completely, but they didn't. They reused a confessional from episode 3 here to tell us that Andrea is still aware of BRob's moves, so there is a good chance she eventually handles him toward the end.
Rob - The other side of the coin. Whereas Andrea is very under-the-radar for a winner, Rob would be the most visible winner in Survivor history. Nothing much actually changed with Rob this episode. He really has remained consistent throughout his entire edit. There is a tinge of arrogance in his confessionals, but he is still being shown as a "genius" mastermind doing all the right things with no drawbacks. This is how you portray a manipulator winning Survivor: you show his moves, share in his fun, and throw in doubts that it can't last.
-- ~*~*The Freudian Psychologist of Survivor*~*~ http://tinyurl.com/2w5ejh6
I'm not sure I buy Andrea being the favorite to win. Matt just screwed up her game royally - Rob knows she was thinking about turning on him and will target her first when all the Zapatera members are gone.
-- 2011 New York Mets: awful "I can't possibly think of anything less intimidating than the New York Jets." - lovethejuice
The thing is we didn't see how her game was screwed up royally - Rob didn't comment on her, and nobody from Ometepe has either. If anything, we are to believe she made the right decision by not sticking with Matt.
We heard her say that Matt's talk with Rob "could have sabotaged my plan to get to the Final 3 completely!" "Could have", but didn't.
Apologies for not getting an analysis up this week. I have the episode transcribed but haven't put enough time into dissecting it.
Based on what I saw, I would bet that Matt stays in the game tonight. His opening scene still kept his story alive with God and if they wanted to kill off his character they probably wouldn't have shown him reconnecting like that. Matt will stay alive tonight, with most likely Mike becoming the first juror. Cyclo won't be happy.
All of Zapatera is doomed as they always have been. Ralph's thrown-in out of place line about voting for Ashley was just to give us a reason why she'll be out of the game at the hands of Rob down the line (if you notice Ralph's line about giving her his vote was just a voice-over, and I highly doubt he actually said it in that scene).
Rob is beginning to look a lot more negative, could be building toward a downfall. Only problem is Andrea had nothing to say this episode. I'd like to believe she was "shielded" from the negativity that the arrogant and oppressing Ometepe tribe bestowed, but it's a tough call to make. If she does win the season then it's right there - she was shielded. At the moment though, it didn't look too good for her.
Grant will get burned by Rob down the line. He's always been shown as slightly wanting to 'do his own thing' but never actually has, and probably never will. Rob has a leash on him. Rob has his armada in line, firing at Zapatera, burning all bridges as he crusades his way to the end. Will Rob make it? Will he win? Is this a repeat of All-Stars (sans everyone else)?
In terms of a winner, it's pretty much just Rob vs. Andrea for me. Amusingly I believe Matt may go pretty far again. Otherwise though this most recent episode (#10) only helped to make Rob look better.