Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 380: Manchin Ease Theater

(+) Yeah! (+)

Aka How to lose a midterm in 10 months

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As bullshit as it has been that Manchin and Sinema have crippled this reconciliation bill (even if you say others would have taken their place - and on, say, Medicare negotiating drug prices, I may even agree - it seems pretty clear they were uniquely responsible for a few policies being cut from this as described last topic) I try to keep some perspective by remembering that between ARP and the two infrastructure bills that's $5t that wouldn't be going to (mostly) good policy had Georgia not bailed out this country in January.

But it absolutely is trash that paid leave got dropped from the bill. Literally six countries on Earth don't have it and we get to stay one of them.

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I... don't think this is passing as is.

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xp1337 posted...

As bullshit as it has been that Manchin and Sinema have crippled this reconciliation bill (even if you say others would have taken their place - and on, say, Medicare negotiating drug prices, I may even agree - it seems pretty clear they were uniquely responsible for a few policies being cut from this as described last topic) I try to keep some perspective by remembering that between ARP and the two infrastructure bills that's $5t that wouldn't be going to (mostly) good policy had Georgia not bailed out this country in January.

But it absolutely is trash that paid leave got dropped from the bill. Literally six countries on Earth don't have it and we get to stay one of them.

impressively confusing punctuation here, i have to hand it to you

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NFUN posted...

impressively confusing punctuation here, i have to hand it to you

thank you

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I... don't think this is passing as is.

Do we even know what as is is right now?

As far as I know the other bill wasn't put up for vote because this one isn't even in writing yet.

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red13n posted...

Do we even know what as is is right now?

As far as I know the other bill wasn't put up for vote because this one isn't even in writing yet.

We do not know exactly, no.

But a senator came out today and was like "fuck this" so uh

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...Which Senator?

Manchin and Sinema have been pretty cagey on this and haven't given a straight answer. Sanders says that the House shouldn't vote on the bipartisan bill until they get the actual legislative text for the reconciliation bill finished but that's about all I've heard.

Over in the House, I know Tlaib wasn't happy about this and gave a pretty strong statement about how gutted the bill was but Jayapal and the Congressional Progressive Caucus backed the framework - they just want the text of the bill and staved off another attempt to rush through the bipartisan bill today because they don't think the framework alone is good enough, especially given how Manchin and Sinema are behaving around it.

I... think the votes are there provided Manchin and Sinema are on board. At best you can say their play was to hope the House bit on this, passed the bipartisan bill and then started a new round of complaints when the actual text was being drafted claiming it violated their understanding of the framework or some similar BS but the CPC is holding firm still so that hasn't happened.

Still could blow up, sure, but so far it hasn't AFAIK.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

But a senator came out today and was like "fuck this" so uh

I cant find the thing quickly but I think this was someone in regards to passing the bipartisan bill without the larger bill even being written.

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https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/28/politics/joe-manchin-patty-murray-family-leave/index.html

But she backed off today because women don't deserve paid time off

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The fact that Pelosi was trying to move the infrastructure bill forward without a deal on the other bill is a sign that she doesn't think the other bill is passing. She's giving up on it.

If they really want to pass something, they need to start talking with Republicans.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/31/us/police-traffic-stops-killings.html

Maybe if traffic stops are so dangerous for police that murder is a reasonable response to traffic violations, we should go ahead and ban cars in general. That might sound crazy, but you have to admit it's more likely to happen than any meaningful police reform.
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red sox 777 posted...

If they really want to pass something, they need to start talking with Republicans.

90% of Republicans are going to say no to literally everything as long as there is a Dem president so not a lot of point in talking to them.

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Xeybozn posted...

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/31/us/police-traffic-stops-killings.html

Maybe if traffic stops are so dangerous for police that murder is a reasonable response to traffic violations, we should go ahead and ban cars in general. That might sound crazy, but you have to admit it's more likely to happen than any meaningful police reform.

Statistics of the article aside (which point to an 8x difference in cop vs driver deaths from traffic stops), the main issue appears to be training. If you train cops to kill, and give them the ability to do so, don't be surprised by the outcomes.

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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1454780196037537792

could it be

infrastructure week at last?

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Maniac64 posted...

90% of Republicans are going to say no to literally everything as long as there is a Dem president so not a lot of point in talking to them.

You don't need many of them though. You only need 2 people. If they were interested in a genuine compromise that can screw over the left, I bet there would be a lot more than 2 R senators interested.

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Also, this applies to the left as well. If they are interested in a genuine compromise with Republicans that screws over the Dem establishment, there might be some interest in that too. I think an absolute condition would have to be no tax increases, but all of their ideas can be funded pretty easily now that we've discovered the power of printing money and using inflation as an indirect tax.

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https://www.foxnews.com/media/mcauliffe-about-face-on-how-much-of-a-role-trump-played-in-governors-race

Not looking good for the Ds in Virginia but I guess we only have to wait another few days to see.

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Maniac64 posted...

90% of Republicans are going to say no to literally everything as long as there is a Dem president so not a lot of point in talking to them.

What 10% would ever say yes? I've yet to see them.

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Ashethan posted...

What 10% would ever say yes? I've yet to see them.

They would say no, but be very concerned about it.

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Seanchan posted...

https://www.foxnews.com/media/mcauliffe-about-face-on-how-much-of-a-role-trump-played-in-governors-race

Not looking good for the Ds in Virginia but I guess we only have to wait another few days to see.

My guess is after the polls were off in 2020 the polling formulas have been updated. That combined with Covid makes me think this poll means very little.

I could see anything from a D+8 to R+8 and not be surprised

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Ashethan posted...

What 10% would ever say yes? I've yet to see them.

10% would go along with the Democrats if the Dems tried to move way to the right of the GOP. They'd give enough votes to pass such craziness, but 90% would still oppose on grounds that the Democrats would still be too far to the left for them.
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Youngkin doing so well is so disappointing, but not surprising. Virginia was still once part of the confederacy, and you can still see confederate flags flying. Youngkin has gone back to the dog-whistles of old, rather than outright racism of Trump. People are comfortable with that. It's why so many people are outraged by "CRT", despite being unable to define what the hell CRT is. It's a dog whistle, and it's effective. Because a lot of the racism in this country is underlying prejudices that we don't want to confront in ourselves. So instead we let them fester and grow. And then we become susceptible to dog whistles, even if we outright reject the obvious racism. And the Subtle racism is just as much of a problem as the overt. But admitting that -- that's the hard part.

Shocking news: Aaron Coleman, the 19/20 year-old with a history of revenge porn and abuse towards women who won a Kansas House seat unopposed after primarying the incumbent has been arrested... for domestic violence.

https://twitter.com/KCStar/status/1454869191127863297

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Kingfrost posted...

Virginia was still once part of the confederacy, and you can still see confederate flags flying.

I was so surprised - almost shocked - when driving through rural Virginia in 2019 and seeing the Confederate flag proudly flying outside like a third of the homes. Considering I've spent most of my life in big west-coast cities, it was an eye-opening moment like "god damn, it's actually real."

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it's been a bit but in my experience Virginia is one of those states that it really matters what part of the state you're talking about

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Lee-Jackson day was a thing in Virginia until last year. Northam and the House of Delegates got rid of it . Election day replaced it. Some people still want to go back to Lee-Jackson-King day. (Cause you know, we can't celebrate the history of a black man, without also celebrating two slave owning confederate white men)

Tom Bombadil posted...

it's been a bit but in my experience Virginia is one of those states that it really matters what part of the state you're talking about

I mean, I've seen Confederate flags in Ohio. I don't think I've seen those specifically but just visiting California and driving outside the cities I've seen some powerfully cursed conservative bullshit. I am convinced that every single US state is just like this.

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Hell I've seen Confederate flags in Illinois, the state that prides itself as "The Land of Lincoln". You'd think this would be the last state where racist idiots would try flying the banner of treason.

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The bottom half of Illinois might as well be Kentucky tbqh.

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Not_an_Owl posted...

Hell I've seen Confederate flags in Illinois, the state that prides itself as "The Land of Lincoln". You'd think this would be the last state where racist idiots would try flying the banner of treason.

Yeah, and Ohio is famously one of the major states people fleeing slavery escaped to due to the Ohio River being a North/South border. There is no logic to it.

Suprak the Stud posted...

The bottom half of Illinois might as well be Kentucky tbqh.

However, this is also true of Ohio. From what I understand, it has also spread into Pennsylvania. I may be of the opinion that all states suck at least a little bit, but Kentucky above all others must be stopped at all costs.

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Kingfrost posted...

Youngkin doing so well is so disappointing, but not surprising. Virginia was still once part of the confederacy, and you can still see confederate flags flying. Youngkin has gone back to the dog-whistles of old, rather than outright racism of Trump. People are comfortable with that. It's why so many people are outraged by "CRT", despite being unable to define what the hell CRT is. It's a dog whistle, and it's effective. Because a lot of the racism in this country is underlying prejudices that we don't want to confront in ourselves. So instead we let them fester and grow. And then we become susceptible to dog whistles, even if we outright reject the obvious racism. And the Subtle racism is just as much of a problem as the overt. But admitting that -- that's the hard part.

People in Virginia are fairly poor, and a lot of them work in industries that don't have very good future prospects (i.e. coal). They reject CRT because the implication that being white is an inherited advantage doesn't make sense in a state that is predominantly white and predominantly poor. Is it really that hard to understand why poor people that are being told they are racist colonizers benefiting from systemic racism reject that claim?

CRT is basically an extension of racism if you look at it from their perspective.

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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I was so surprised - almost shocked - when driving through rural Virginia in 2019 and seeing the Confederate flag proudly flying outside like a third of the homes. Considering I've spent most of my life in big west-coast cities, it was an eye-opening moment like "god damn, it's actually real."

this is america

don't catch you slippin' now

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CaptainOfCrush posted...

I was so surprised - almost shocked - when driving through rural Virginia in 2019 and seeing the Confederate flag proudly flying outside like a third of the homes. Considering I've spent most of my life in big west-coast cities, it was an eye-opening moment like "god damn, it's actually real."

You must not have driven through rural California and Nevada much.

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

People in Virginia are fairly poor, and a lot of them work in industries that don't have very good future prospects (i.e. coal). They reject CRT because the implication that being white is an inherited advantage doesn't make sense in a state that is predominantly white and predominantly poor. Is it really that hard to understand why poor people that are being told they are racist colonizers benefiting from systemic racism reject that claim?

CRT is basically an extension of racism if you look at it from their perspective.

You're confusing Virginia for West Virginia. There are less than 2000 people working in Coal in Virginia. And we are not predominantly poor.

My bad, but my point still stands

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newsflash: americans are generally horrible people

Paratroopa1 posted...

newsflash: people are generally horrible people

Fixed

Gestures to all of history

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No I'm not letting americans off the hook here, they're worse

Paratroopa1 posted...

No I'm not letting americans off the hook here, they're worse

lol ok.

Im tempted to argue with you about how on basically any metric that doesnt make sense, but Ill just let it go.

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don't 'all lives matter' me next time

Between NoVA and to a lesser extent Richmond and Hampton Roads, a large swath of Virginia lives in high(er) income areas. It's the growth in those areas, and again NoVA in particular, that has pulled Virginia left.

The Fox poll has me concerned because of the trend over the past few weeks, rather than it as a singular data point. I still think this is a close race but indications are Youngkin trending upwards.

There could be other factors at play here, like maybe Ds who have already early voted didn't respond anymore. I don't know. As ever, this likely comes down to how the "tweener" suburbs like Fairfax and Loudoun go.

I will say I do think it's fairly damning that just last week Terry had a speech/rally in dark blue Arlington. It says to me that he's worried about turnout and enthusiasm and is trying to muster up as many "safe" D votes as possible.

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Paratroopa1 posted...

don't 'all lives matter' me next time

I will if you say something equally dumb. Saying Americans are terrible people is as equally valid as saying Africans are terrible people

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I haven't talked about VA because it hasn't really come up and I didn't want to bring it up unprompted but honestly my approach there has been "*throw hands up into the air* let's just see what happens tuesday."

You absolutely can make a number of arguments that McAuliffe is in better shape than the polling indicates: Polling did the same thing where it looked like Northam was in trouble/going to lose in 2017 and was way off, that a lot of the polling in VA has been kinda junk firms (this is less true right now because a few decent ones came out), that 2021 polling has been pretty trash and underestimating Dems like in the CA recall where Newsom beat his 538 polling average by around 10 points (even more with his RCP average IIRC)...

...But I also don't want to get in the business of just handwaving and dismissing possible warning signals. Honestly, I've heard so much info out of this race that I could very easily use some of it to argue R E L A X it's all fine or use other bits out of it to say we should be hitting panic button until it breaks we're doomed. So I've just kinda made my peace that "we'll see."

I think the one thing I think is probably safe to say is that the race tightened over time. But is Youngkin actually up like the polling average suggests? idk. We'll find out.

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https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1455243036795998212

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I can't watch that without thinking about this, which is not really related:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DlTexEXxLQ

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BBC continues to defend its shoddy journalism fearmongering the trans community as rapists. Sending out responses to complaints against the article with a broad response claiming their article went through a rigorous editorial process, defends the inclusion of a low-response social media poll sourced from a group that targets trans rights because article itself points out it's a biased self-selecting sample that may not be representative (without adding background to the hate group that produced it) - offering zero alternative.

Claims it's fine because that article isn't based solely on the survey, there were also 3 anecdotes interviewed in support of it with again zero opposition. Any mention at all of one such anecdote's history of as a serial rapist assaulting women in bathrooms herself? Posting vile tirades on her social media about trans people? Nope! Just listen to her story!

Ends with generic nonsense about how their article was just too CHALLENGING to those criticizing it, downplaying the pushback by saying they received appreciation for their article as well. Yeah, I see plenty of the hateful transphobes touting your bullshit article, that's not a brag.

Infuriates me to no end to see them literally state "Furthermore, there is a link to the detail of the findings which enables the reader to make up their own minds about the replies the sample generated." as their excuse to posting unreliable horseshit data to their readers unchallenged. BBC's job is to just spread shoddy data from hate groups and anecdotes including an actual serial rapist and then it's on the readers to discern if it's accurate journalism without offering any critique! What the actual fuck? The god damn state of journalism on display is bloody miserable.

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BBC has gotten very awful

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WaPo released an in-depth report about the before, during, and after of January 6 and it's worth a read if you're at all interested in the myriad failures before and ongoing. It's a very long piece however, and stretches back months before January 6 to show the build-up.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2021/jan-6-insurrection-capitol/

Washington Post reports...

He organized an unusual call for all of the nation's regional homeland security offices -- known as fusion centers -- to find out what others were seeing. Sena expected a couple dozen people to get on the line that Monday. But then the number of callers hit 100. Then 200. Then nearly 300. Officials from nearly all 80 regions, from New York to Guam, logged on.

In the 20 years since the country had created fusion centers in response to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Sena couldn't remember a moment like this. For the first time, from coast to coast, the centers were blinking red. The hour, date, and location of concern was the same: 1 p.m., the U.S. Capitol, Jan. 6.

Harvin asked his counterparts to share what they were seeing. Within minutes, an avalanche of new tips began streaming in. Self-styled militias and other extremist groups in the Northeast were circulating radio frequencies to use near the Capitol. In the Midwest, men with violent criminal histories were discussing plans to travel to Washington with weapons.

Forty-eight hours before the attack, Harvin began pressing every alarm button he could. He invited the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Department of Homeland Security, military intelligence services and other agencies to see the information in real time as his team collected it. He took another extreme step: He asked the city's health department to convene a call of D.C.-area hospitals and urged them to prepare for a mass casualty event. Empty your emergency rooms, he said, and stock up your blood banks.

Washington Post reports...

Several state legislatures passed bills granting new powers to partisan actors to challenge ballot counting and making it easier for the party in power to replace local election officials. The measures seemed built for a future when rejecting election results could be routine -- and raised the prospect that partisan loyalists, rather than county professionals, could become arbiters of election disputes.

By the end of September 2021, GOP lawmakers around the country would introduce more than 400 bills restricting voting access -- and would pass 33 laws in 19 states.

And Republicans lining up to run for office were echoing Trump's false claims that he won the 2020 election. By the end of summer, nearly a third of the 390 GOP candidates who had expressed interest in running for statewide office publicly supported a partisan audit, downplayed the Jan. 6 attack or directly questioned Biden's victory, according to a tally by The Post. Among them: 10 candidates running for secretary of state, a position with sway over elections in many states.

It was an overwhelming signal of Trump's hold on the GOP.

And a whole lot more from a wide variety of viewpoints and agencies from 200+ days before to 200+ days after.

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This seems like par for the course for journalism.

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