Current Events > Trump's gonna win the election, isn't he?

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Vivaldi7
11/13/23 12:23:14 PM
#101:


If that israel/Palestine mess escalates into an oil embargo, gas prices will rocket and Trump will surf into the Whitehouse again- Double digits. Both houses.

This way that assshole in Riyadh would be able to pretend he cared for the Palestinians as well as stick it to Biden...and bring back his orange buddy in power.

God damm shit is so predictable.

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Shadow_Don
11/13/23 12:37:01 PM
#102:


Board_hunter567 posted...
Republicans are going to go in hard on three main talking points
1) Cost of living
2) Immigration
3) General distrust and apathy for current elected officials

They are going to double down on culture war and abortion.

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Marcos_Cafu_2
11/13/23 12:44:12 PM
#103:


Board_hunter567 posted...
There's a really good chance and that there are people who don't believe so is worrying. They haven't learned a thing and aren't paying attention.

Republicans are going to go in hard on three main talking points
1) Cost of living
2) Immigration
3) General distrust and apathy for current elected officials

Look at Europe. Horrendous candidates are rising in popularity because people are whipped into a frenzied panic over costs, immigrants, and representatives who they feel aren't doing anything to help them.

It's the same worry I have about Ramaswamy. He's a joke now but so was Trump. Like it or not he's resonating with more and more people and we're going to get back to the point where we're desperately convincing ourselves that the polls show he doesn't have a chance.

Democrats so desperately want the political landscape to go back to what it was but they need to update their playbook, preferably with something more than talk of LGBT support. About the only things they have that is truly bipartisan are abortion and marijuana but that can only carry the party so far for so long. With election shenanigans by the right getting more blatant it's debatable how much gain that will even net them.

Edit: And how could I forget the inevitable talk about the "Biden crime family." While I don't believe that will do much in moving the needle compared to the other three talking points it's sufficient enough to keep his name in the mud.
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Mussurana
11/13/23 12:47:11 PM
#104:


IceCreamOnStero posted...
Never Trumpers will always get out and vote against him. Only chance for the republicans was if someone else ran unopposed.
Remember 2016 when he stood no chance?

Complacency like this helps him.

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burns112233
11/13/23 12:48:18 PM
#105:


It is his density (BttF reference)

https://youtu.be/bOrhnWgOFGg?si=mKxxv-Mwb1QQkLvg
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AlCalavicci
11/13/23 12:51:36 PM
#106:


Those of y'all who are Dems and thinking Trump will win.. Do you vote?

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Umbreon
11/13/23 12:53:17 PM
#107:


Don't know who's gonna win, but I'll sure as hell be voting against Trump if I'm able.

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Board_hunter567
11/13/23 12:58:04 PM
#108:


AlCalavicci posted...
Those of y'all who are Dems and thinking Trump will win.. Do you vote?
Every election, as much good as it does in a state Democrats have forsaken any chance of winning (Florida).

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Crimsoness
11/13/23 12:58:40 PM
#109:


Umbreon posted...
Don't know who's gonna win, but I'll sure as hell be voting against Trump if I'm able.

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creativerealms
11/13/23 1:03:30 PM
#110:


RISEofCHRISTIAN posted...
Pretty much guaran-damn-teed. It's his density to win.
Dense is the right word.

I know you meant destiny but density works better for Trump and his supporters.

Also you were so sure Trump would win in 2020 that you bet money on ir. And never paid when you lost.

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BakonBitz
11/13/23 1:04:03 PM
#111:


I think the reason why Trump won in the first place is because nobody thought he would win and were complacent, thinking they didn't need to vote.

Everybody needs to vote this time.

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creativerealms
11/13/23 1:07:44 PM
#112:


Mussurana posted...
Remember 2016 when he stood no chance?

Complacency like this helps him.
That was the last time Trump was underestimated, since then he and Republicans have been way over estimated. Polls keep saying they will destroy democrats and yet that hasn't happened.

As long as democrats are voting in high numbers you don't know. Trump can win. I will never count that but we shouldn't give up.

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Forty_Niners
11/13/23 1:18:53 PM
#113:


Vivaldi7 posted...
If that israel/Palestine mess escalates into an oil embargo, gas prices will rocket and Trump will surf into the Whitehouse again- Double digits. Both houses.

This way that assshole in Riyadh would be able to pretend he cared for the Palestinians as well as stick it to Biden...and bring back his orange buddy in power.

God damm shit is so predictable.
Don't worry, Saudis already plotted to slow down oil manufacturing in 2024

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rodu_jr
11/13/23 1:19:53 PM
#114:


If he wins he's never leaving
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creativerealms
11/13/23 1:32:49 PM
#115:


Board_hunter567 posted...
There's a really good chance and that there are people who don't believe so is worrying. They haven't learned a thing and aren't paying attention.

Republicans are going to go in hard on three main talking points
1) Cost of living
2) Immigration
3) General distrust and apathy for current elected officials

Look at Europe. Horrendous candidates are rising in popularity because people are whipped into a frenzied panic over costs, immigrants, and representatives who they feel aren't doing anything to help them.

It's the same worry I have about Ramaswamy. He's a joke now but so was Trump. Like it or not he's resonating with more and more people and we're going to get back to the point where we're desperately convincing ourselves that the polls show he doesn't have a chance.

Democrats so desperately want the political landscape to go back to what it was but they need to update their playbook, preferably with something more than talk of LGBT support. About the only things they have that is truly bipartisan are abortion and marijuana but that can only carry the party so far for so long. With election shenanigans by the right getting more blatant it's debatable how much gain that will even net them.

Edit: And how could I forget the inevitable talk about the "Biden crime family." While I don't believe that will do much in moving the needle compared to the other three talking points it's sufficient enough to keep his name in the mud.
Cost of living should be a losing position for Republicans as they have one solution and it always makes things worse. Their tax breaks have caused the cost of living problem. Yet that will be their answer.

Immigration is something democrats need to get better communicating. Republicans are taking direct reports from the border that show the Biden Administration is doing a good job and twisting to make it sound bad. Somehow they are taking reports of border patrol stopping terrorists and drugs from entering our country and use them as proof that more are getting into our country. The Biden Administration needs to communicate better.

Distrust of our politicians won't be going anywhere anytime soon.not as long as the very old hold onto control of both parties. Hopefully we will have two people under 65 running in 2028.

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#116
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Inohira
11/13/23 4:55:20 PM
#117:


TyVulpine posted...
Republicans in 2020: "Biden is 77! He's too old to be president!"
Republicans in 2024: "We don't care if Trump is 78 years old! We want him as president!"

Also:
Trump lost popular vote in 2016
Trump lost popular vote in 2020
Trump supporters still think he is going to win in 2024......

Popular vote is completely irrelevant. Still pushing it after 2016 is moronic. Republicans will never win the popular vote again and aren't even trying to.

All that matters is that Trump won the electoral vote in 2016 and lost it in 2020. Biden could win the popular vote by 10 million and still lose the electoral, it's a trivial count.

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Kradek
11/13/23 4:58:54 PM
#118:


The Republican primary? Easily.

The General Election? Doubt it.

Every election since 2016 has been based around Trumpism and literally the only one they've won was regaining the House in 2022. They've had noticeable losses at both the state and federal level since Trump's extremism gave the GOP cart blanche to be the worst version of themselves they always yearned to be.

Trump is the best motivator for the Dem base because it takes the focus away from their candidate and more about resisting Trump's Nazism.

I'd actually be far more concerned for any other Republican v Biden.

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Will_VIIII
11/13/23 4:59:36 PM
#119:


Has no one addressed how he's likely going to be ineligible anyway?

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mystic_belmont
11/13/23 5:00:18 PM
#120:


Trump pulls more people to vote against than for him.

What's going to be on the ballot in 2024? Abortion. Republicans want to eliminate entirely body autonomy.

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ItsNotA2Mer
11/13/23 5:07:00 PM
#121:


Shadow_Don posted...
They are going to double down on culture war and abortion.

Hopefully they triple and quadruple down on abortion, that's what will defeat them.

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Kradek
11/13/23 5:08:45 PM
#122:


mystic_belmont posted...
Trump pulls more people to vote against than for him.

What's going to be on the ballot in 2024? Abortion. Republicans want to eliminate entirely body autonomy.

And Trump has been proudly boasting that he's the reason women lost their rights to bodily autonomy.

He's the best Dem advertisement just by existing.

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#123
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DarkBuster22904
11/13/23 5:20:54 PM
#124:


Zoomers are gonna be the X factor.

in 2016, hardly any of them could vote. By now, more than half can. They're a massive demographic, almost never get counted in pre-election polling (as they don't engage with the methods the polls use), and they overwhelmingly hate Trump. They've been key in yhe last few democrat upsets, and you can bet your ass they'll show up in droves to squash Trump again.

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wanderingshade
11/13/23 5:22:54 PM
#125:


BakonBitz posted...
I think the reason why Trump won in the first place is because nobody thought he would win and were complacent, thinking they didn't need to vote.

Everybody needs to vote this time.

Well now we got doomers and lefties letting perfect get in the way of acceptable who don't want to vote for Biden so we'll see how that goes.

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CyborgSage00x0
11/13/23 5:26:11 PM
#126:


lol this topic. There's no reason to think Trump would win. Hell, it's unlikley he'll be on most state ballots, and almost certainly will be in jail (which yes, I know doesn't DQ one from running, but would almost certainly trigger a carte blac 14th amendment push nation wide).

There's every reason to think he'd do significantly worse, if anything, between right-wing voter depression, Blue Wave, how much more unpopular Trump has become, the fact that he already lost badly last time, etc.

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Starks
11/13/23 5:34:43 PM
#127:


A conviction would not trigger the 14th amendment, at least not automatically. Even then, it's still an insanely long shot.

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CyborgSage00x0
11/13/23 5:36:34 PM
#128:


Starks posted...
A conviction would not trigger the 14th amendment, at least not automatically. Even then, it's still an insanely long shot.
Automatically, no. But currently challenges are progressing as-is. It's never really be tested before, but if Trump is convicted for 1/6 before the election, it'd be hard to deny that it would satisfy DQ'ing under the 14th.

Point being, Trump has a very hard climb ahead of him.

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SuperSaiyanTien
11/13/23 5:40:47 PM
#129:


CyborgSage00x0 posted...
There's every reason to think he'd do significantly worse, if anything, between right-wing voter depression, Blue Wave, how much more unpopular Trump has become, the fact that he already lost badly last time, etc.

Can I ask why you believe that?

Again, I'm not a Trump fan by any means but look at the data. In 2016, Trump only secured 46.1% of the popular vote and received *almost* 63 million votes. In 2020, Trump got 46.8% of the popular vote but received an extra 11 million votes (74 million total) which is huge when you consider that Obama, a popular president, received millions less votes his second term than his first.

In fact, we've seen previous Republican (unpopular) presidents get a huge jump during times of war I.E. see Bush in 2000 vs. Bush 2004. As messed up as it is, the war in Israel/Palestine might cause a surge of Independents to vote Republican.

I just don't think it's as cut/dry as some would want.

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Shadow_Don
11/13/23 5:44:57 PM
#130:


SuperSaiyanTien posted...
Again, I'm not a Trump fan by any means but look at the data. In 2016, Trump only secured 46.1% of the popular vote and received *almost* 63 million votes. In 2020, Trump got 46.8% of the popular vote but received an extra 11 million votes (74 million total) which is huge when you consider that Obama, a popular president, received millions less votes his second term than his first.

There are definitely some republicans that think jan 6 was a deal breaker, which happened after both elections with trump on the ballot.

Also, you are not accounting for mail-in ballots in 2020 which resulted in a significantly higher turnout for everyone.

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_____Cait
11/13/23 5:52:03 PM
#131:


You sayin we might have our first impeached, jailed, and rapist president?

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Kradek
11/13/23 5:53:21 PM
#132:


_____Cait posted...
You sayin we might have our first impeached, jailed, and rapist president?

Well the guy did want to be remembered by the history books lol.

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DarkBuster22904
11/13/23 5:53:28 PM
#133:


SuperSaiyanTien posted...
Can I ask why you believe that?

Again, I'm not a Trump fan by any means but look at the data. In 2016, Trump only secured 46.1% of the popular vote and received *almost* 63 million votes. In 2020, Trump got 46.8% of the popular vote but received an extra 11 million votes (74 million total) which is huge when you consider that Obama, a popular president, received millions less votes his second term than his first.

In fact, we've seen previous Republican (unpopular) presidents get a huge jump during times of war I.E. see Bush in 2000 vs. Bush 2004. As messed up as it is, the war in Israel/Palestine might cause a surge of Independents to vote Republican.

I just don't think it's as cut/dry as some would want.
Because:

1) We aren't in a war, which traditionally sees incumbent success due to drawing in BOTH parties to vote for a steady, stable leader in order to project strength,and,

2) Trump is unlike any prior candidate. He has way too much press. There isn't a single person in this country who doesn't know, vividly, who he is and what he's all about. This has two effects. One, it shrinks what could be considered the TRUE "independent" vote; they've LONG since decided whether they're behind Trump or not. And 2) it means that Trump's popularity has a ceiling. I don't think he can grow any bigger than he already has (*ba dum tiss*). Think about it: who honestly is voting for Trump in 2024 who didn't already vote for him in 2020? Yeah, he pulled out 11 million new people thar year, but can he honestly pull that again? Where are they gonna come from? The reality is, Trump's base can only shrink, and while his true cultists are more riled than ever, it's inevitable that everything that's gone down with him from 1/6 onward has shaken off at least SOME of that base; certainly more than they've gotten in fresh recruits.


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CyborgSage00x0
11/13/23 5:54:59 PM
#134:


SuperSaiyanTien posted...
Can I ask why you believe that?

Again, I'm not a Trump fan by any means but look at the data. In 2016, Trump only secured 46.1% of the popular vote and received *almost* 63 million votes. In 2020, Trump got 46.8% of the popular vote but received an extra 11 million votes (74 million total) which is huge when you consider that Obama, a popular president, received millions less votes his second term than his first.

In fact, we've seen previous Republican (unpopular) presidents get a huge jump during times of war I.E. see Bush in 2000 vs. Bush 2004. As messed up as it is, the war in Israel/Palestine might cause a surge of Independents to vote Republican.

I just don't think it's as cut/dry as some would want.
His vote count total increased from 2016 to 2020 solely due to mail-in voting and broadly increasing voting access nationwide, and for no other reason.

Everything since then has decreased his popularity as a whole. It's impossible to say if his base is even "energized" by his legal troubles (whereas it has hurt him everywhere else), but it doesn't matter - his base is smaller than Dem/independents, and will have depressed turnout in 2024 (on top of Dems already having superior turnout in Pres election years).

I'm more curious why anyone would thing he'd do BETTER this time around, since there's no reason to think this would be true, in any sense.

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Roachmeat
11/13/23 5:57:40 PM
#135:


Will_VIIII posted...
Has no one addressed how he's likely going to be ineligible anyway?

If you mean the trials, he (Trump) is probably going to run the clock out on those so any convictions happen after the election.

If you mean the 14th amendment, that process already seems to be dragging along at a snail's pace and will likely have to cross the (conserative) supreme court before anything substantial takes place.
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Kradek
11/13/23 5:59:34 PM
#136:


Roachmeat posted...
If you mean the trials, he (Trump) is probably going to run the clock out on those so any convictions happen after the election.

If you mean the 14th amendment, that process already seems to be dragging along at a snail's pace and will likely have to cross the (conserative) supreme court before anything substantial takes place.

The only results I've heard on this is for MN, and in that case they said it wasn't the right time because he hasn't officially won the primary, and that they're welcomed to bring the case back once he's officially at risk of becoming POTUS.

You're right in that I don't even know what the other states such as NM are up to on this.

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argonautweakend
11/13/23 6:01:26 PM
#137:


You can't really say trump got more popular in the 2020 election. Voter turnout as a whole was 6.5% higher than in 2016, a lot of people were granted easier access to voting because of mail in ballots.

Biden got 14 million more votes than Hillary did. Everything was up in 2020, this doesn't necessarily mean that Trump was actually more popular, and things like most Trump backed candidates did terrible in the midterms, of which there was no red wave, and outside of NYs house districts, they didn't seem to gain much ground anywhere(and one of those winners is George Santos, who is kind of in his own world of legal troubles, because he is a serial liar perhaps even more so than Donald)

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Shadow_Don
11/13/23 6:08:34 PM
#138:


Roachmeat posted...
will likely have to cross the (conserative) supreme court before anything substantial takes place.

I wouldn't automatically say the Supreme Court is safe for trump. They've gone against him regarding the 2020 election already.

And he literally called for the canceling of the constitution, which would make them totally powerless. Might be in their best interest to keep his ass in check.

I'm not counting on them obviously, but its not a sure thing for trump either.

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CyborgSage00x0
11/13/23 6:15:53 PM
#139:


Kradek posted...
You're right in that I don't even know what the other states such as NM are up to on this.
IIRC, the biggest one moving forward is CO. But it's mostly blue states so far.

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PiOverlord
11/13/23 6:32:34 PM
#140:


I do not believe he will be. Polls are looking good for him right now, but tbh, polls have been over-representing Trump supporters for a while now. Democrats have overperformed in each election, especially against the Trump candidates. The more Trump you appear, the more Americans feel encouraged to vote in order to make sure you don't even accidentally get elected.

Not to mention, there might be some independents that are thinking of voting for Trump, but that's because they have, for the most part, not been reminded of who he is. No tweets, he's not the president, etc. When Trump (assuming he is able to avoid jail, which I think he will, but life has given us many surprises, so we'll see) is the nominee again, they all will be reminded of who Trump is, and just like they have done for the last 5 years, they will reject Trumpism.

Not to mention, Republicans are convinced they can win the abortion issue, and Trump is the guy who nominated the court that is even making abortion an issue. Democrats can literally paint Trump as the face of Roe v. Wade being overturned, and we have seen just how strongly turnout will be to keep abortion as an option. I don't foresee abortion not being an issue in 2024, which makes it really hard for me to see how Trump is going to win.

The economy was arguably weak in 2022, which usually would result in a massacre for the majority party, but for once, there seem to be factors that voters care more about than that. I think we'll see the polls start to reflect Trump's actual national numbers when we actually get closer to the election, and I bet the battleground states will inaccurately over-exaggerate Trump's support on an individual basis. It's not like the Rust Belt was overwhelmingly voting for Trump in the first place in 2016, and I feel the Democrats have been able to get them back to the usual blue we would expect. Arizona and Nevada have just been a disappointment for Trumplicans in general.

All we have to do is play our part and put in our vote. I will be filling in that bubble next to Biden, and I will hopefully be doing my part to kill the Trumplican party after he loses a 2nd time.

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CyborgSage00x0
11/13/23 6:48:02 PM
#141:


PiOverlord posted...
I do not believe he will be. Polls are looking good for him right now, but tbh, polls have been over-representing Trump supporters for a while now. Democrats have overperformed in each election, especially against the Trump candidates. The more Trump you appear, the more Americans feel encouraged to vote in order to make sure you don't even accidentally get elected.
The recent favorable polls for him are comically off, like the one showing him +5 in Michigan, which is super lol. Honestly, the worth of polls to anyone should be well diminished at this point, never mind that polls a year out aren't worth a damn anyways, even back when polling in general was still kinda sorta trustworthy.

But hey, any motivation to get the vote out is fine by me, but realistic honesty is key. And the reality is, we're going on 4 years now of a total Blue Wave.

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UnsteadyOwl
11/13/23 6:49:11 PM
#142:


PiOverlord posted...
Not to mention, Republicans are convinced they can win the abortion issue, and Trump is the guy who nominated the court that is even making abortion an issue. Democrats can literally paint Trump as the face of Roe v. Wade being overturned, and we have seen just how strongly turnout will be to keep abortion as an option. I don't foresee abortion not being an issue in 2024, which makes it really hard for me to see how Trump is going to win.
It's going to be a hell of a talking point for Biden that three of the six Justices who overturned Roe v Wade were appointed by Trump. And what's Trump going to do? He can't denounce the ruling because then he pisses off the religious right and makes himself look like a fool for having appointed them in the first place. He's shackled to it whether that's good for his election chances or not.

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PiOverlord
11/13/23 6:59:36 PM
#143:


CyborgSage00x0 posted...
The recent favorable polls for him are comically off, like the one showing him +5 in Michigan, which is super lol. Honestly, the worth of polls to anyone should be well diminished at this point, never mind that polls a year out aren't worth a damn anyways, even back when polling in general was still kinda sorta trustworthy.

But hey, any motivation to get the vote out is fine by me, but realistic honesty is key. And the reality is, we're going on 4 years now of a total Blue Wave.
Honestly, I find https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls to be my new aggregate system. As of now, they do have Trump winning, but that's based on current polling data, and I believe they were even more accurate than 538 during 2020. They are very transparent about races they predicted right/wrong as well, and had the best model for the 2022 House race totals.

For instance, you will see they have Trump winning Michigan based on poll data... but only by .2%, which is well within the MoE, as well as the fact that early polls are going to favor challengers for the presidency.

I still like to cross-reference 538 as I think it's still a decent aggregate site. After all, it still gave Trump a 30% chance to win the White House, which was much higher than all of the other sites were giving him. I remember when they were criticized for that, when they were just trying to be an objective polling aggregate, lol.

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Nok_Su_Kow
11/13/23 7:26:35 PM
#144:


I'll wait to see what Alan Lichtman says before putting any stock in polls.
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FlyEaglesFly24
11/13/23 7:28:19 PM
#145:


I think the real question is, do we have another January 6th like event when he loses?

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Umbreon
11/13/23 7:30:10 PM
#146:


FlyEaglesFly24 posted...
I think the real question is, do we have another January 6th like event when he loses?

Probably.


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Black Lives Matter. ~DYL~ (On mobile)
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pegusus123456
11/13/23 7:42:00 PM
#147:


FlyEaglesFly24 posted...
I think the real question is, do we have another January 6th like event when he loses?
They might try, but Biden isn't going to hem and haw over a response. They will be arrested by the National Guard.

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So? I deeded to some gay porn. It doesn't mean anything. - Patty_Fleur
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Heineken14
11/13/23 7:48:17 PM
#148:


pegusus123456 posted...

They might try, but Biden isn't going to hem and haw over a response. They will be arrested by the National Guard.


Yeah, it'll be MUCH harder to do if Donnie loses as he won't have the people in charge of shit that let the insurrection even get to the point that it did.

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Rage is a hell of an anesthetic.
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aarrgus
11/13/23 7:50:01 PM
#149:


Vivaldi7 posted...
If that israel/Palestine mess escalates into an oil embargo, gas prices will rocket and Trump will surf into the Whitehouse again- Double digits. Both houses.



If you think that any candidate in 2024 is going to win by double digits you fundamentally do not understand national elections.

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Last night I was lying in bed, staring at the stars, and I wondered... Where the **** is my roof?
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ScazarMeltex
11/13/23 7:53:33 PM
#150:


Shadow_Don posted...
They are going to double down on culture war and abortion.
Based on the last batch of elections that's a losing proposition for them.

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Furthermore, The GOP is a Fascist Organization and must be destroyed
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