Current Events > So covid is spiking nation wide... Why?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Bleuets posted...

you think I give a fuck what you think?

yes

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Uh OP It takes WEEKS for spread

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archedsoul posted...

Essentially speaking, protests will be hard to track down and is pretty much irrelevant in the grand scheme of things because the reopenings are more responsible. You can't really properly contact trace the protests, especially when places like NYC have said they don't even ask if you were at any.

exactly.

archedsoul posted...

It's 50%. Yearly salary divided by 52, divided by 2.

Incorrect. The calculation varies by state and can be calculated on a quarterly or yearly basis (e.g., some states use your highest quarterly pay rather than the entire year).

Not sure what you mean when you say that it's higher for people with lower salaries. The pua is $600 across the board but state UI payments haven't changed

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Bleuets posted...

my god, youve convince me. When all of the time I thought I was right, it was fucking gamefaqs posters! Their attention to the news has made them a force to be reckoned with. They are just so smart, no arguing with them they got numbers from news!

So angry lmfao

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archedsoul posted...

Essentially speaking, protests will be hard to track down and is pretty much irrelevant in the grand scheme of things because the reopenings are more responsible. You can't really properly contact trace the protests, especially when places like NYC have said they don't even ask if you were at any.

They dont specifically ask if people were at protests but they DO ask if people were at large gatherings, as well as which bars and restaurants, etc, then they aggregate that data with that from other people to paint a picture of the spread

contact tracing is a much more involved thing than yall seem to understand. They are not making these claims out of thin air. It is all data driven

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Balrog0 posted...

Incorrect. The calculation varies by state and can be calculated on a quarterly or yearly basis (e.g., some states use your highest quarterly pay rather than the entire year).

Not sure what you mean when you say that it's higher for people with lower salaries. The pua is $600 across the board but state UI payments haven't changed

Yes, they use different formulas such as quarterly earning because not everyone makes the same throughout the year. But it essentially boils down to 50%. It's not really 30% anywhere.

I meant that since $600 amounts to $15/hour, lower wages are getting way more than they usual do. But when you're making 150k and you're getting even $1400 in one of the highest states, you're making way less.

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States opened up and it got to the point where everyone knew someone with the virus. I went and got tested once my work had an exposure and came up positive. More people are getting tested

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Selfish assholes. Thats it.

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TheGoldenEel posted...

They dont specifically ask if people were at protests but they DO ask if people were at large gatherings, as well as which bars and restaurants, etc, then they aggregate that data with that from other people to paint a picture of the spread

contact tracing is a much more involved thing than yall seem to understand. They are not making these claims out of thin air. It is all data driven

It is much more involved, but it goes nowhere when you can't really trace it. Cuomo has admit they're having a tough time and that he wants this information properly, unlike Blasio.

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archedsoul posted...

Yes, they use different formulas such as quarterly earning because not everyone makes the same throughout the year.

? It's based on the state, not the individual

archedsoul posted...

But it essentially boils down to 50%. It's not really 30% anywhere.

I mean the benefit calculation in some places are seemingly random. Arizona gives you 4% of your salary from a quarter. And the way you calculate that 50% of wages is different in different states, too... Colorado uses two different formulas and gives the employee whichever is higher

It's definitely not a simple or straightforward number to get at

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Bullet_Wing posted...

OK, but that's only 600 a week until July. There's no extra state benefits

It varies by state. Low end is 30% of salary, high end is 50

He said "most". A lot of states cap it pretty low. Mass is a major outlier there. I'm actually in Mass and at Mass maximum of 823 + 600, but I made a good deal more than that when working. To make 823, you had to make at least 1646, so not getting any kind of bonus from this. On top of that, I actually liked my job, so this is less like a vacation.

The point being is that the original statement I argued against was the generalization of people getting over 1000 a week in unemployment. It's certainly not the majority.

I do agree with most of your post. I was just trying to say that it's still 50% across the board when all things are considered. However, I didn't account for the different caps, which you seem to be referring to as in lots of states have extremely low caps.

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Balrog0 posted...

? It's based on the state, not the individual

I mean the benefit calculation in some places are seemingly random. Arizona gives you 4% of your salary from a quarter. And the way you calculate that 50% of wages is different in different states, too... Colorado uses two different formulas and gives the employee whichever is higher

It's definitely not a simple or straightforward number to get at

I think the issue is the caps. I've been reading about most states and it's still 50%, though different formulas are used. I didn't consider the very low caps in some states, so it can like 10%.

Even then, people who don't qualify properly are going by the federal salary/52/2 model.

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pinky0926 posted...

Armchair quarterback opinion:
* protests from the left
* the right thinks coronavirus is a hoax
* general fatigue over restrictions means people are taking it less seriously

I'd say this is the most reasonable post ITT

well meaning (and some non-well meaning) idiots on the left protesting in giant numbers
wannabe tough guy idiots on the right not wearing masks
and the fact that the average age of infect has nearly been cut in half

will be interesting to see if deaths do end up spiking or not. If you look at the numbers, age and obesity seem to be the two big ticket items.

archedsoul posted...

It is much more involved, but it goes nowhere when you can't really trace it. Cuomo has admit they're having a tough time and that he wants this information properly, unlike Blasio.

Several of the articles I posted, which cover many different cities, cite specific numbers and address concerns of the limitations of contact reacting

for example one number given is 3000 people who self reported going to protests and voluntarily got tested. 1% of tests came back positive

of people that tested positive of a different sample group, less than 5% reported attending protests

youre right that we cant get a perfect itinerary from every single person, but that is not the point of contact tracing. The point is to gather a sufficient sample size of data and get the big picture, and the picture that is forming is pointing to bars and partying as the primary drivers of spread

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TheGoldenEel posted...

Several of the articles I posted, which cover many different cities, cite specific numbers and address concerns of the limitations of contact reacting

for example one number given is 3000 people who self reported going to protests and voluntarily got tested. 1% of tests came back positive

of people that tested positive of a different sample group, less than 5% reported attending protests

youre right that we cant get a perfect itinerary from every single person, but that is not the point of contact tracing. The point is to gather a sufficient sample size of data and get the big picture, and the picture that is forming is pointing to bars and partying as the primary drivers of spread

There were however over 100k protesters in NY. It's not really about the young. The statistics is that about 80% of young people are asymptomatic. About 50% of the spread comes from them.

NY is doing very well right now. We'll see if things progress in probably about a month because asymptomatic people have zero reason to get tested.

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Bullet_Wing posted...

That's fair. Like I said, the main statement I took issue with (which wasn't a post of yours) was the idea that most people are just sitting on their asses making 1000+ a week. You had to have been doing decently for yourself prior to be earning that much now.

As for some people making more than they were? Factor in insurance, other benefits, and job security once this runs out, and I'm sure a lot of those people would rather be working.

Yeah, definitely didn't mean to discount that. I'm very happy for my friends who are finally getting a break. This is all temporary and most people value a job over free temporary money, but it's still a good stress reliever.

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I have a friend who is already going to the bar every weekend to crack a few with tha boizzzz dont get me wrong I love a drink here and there but you really cant have fun without binging all weekend?

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Here in the bay area people stopped giving s shit a month ago.

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archedsoul posted...

There were however over 100k protesters in NY. It's not really about the young. The statistics is that about 80% of young people are asymptomatic. About 50% of the spread comes from them.

Again, this is why they have contact traced many people WITHOUT symptoms, the majority of whom tested negative

with a large enough sample size you dont need to contact trace all 100,000 people at a protest to get a reasonable picture of what happened

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TheGoldenEel posted...

Again, this is why they have contact traced many people WITHOUT symptoms, the majority of whom tested negative

with a large enough sample size you dont need to contact trace all 100,000 people at a protest to get a reasonable picture of what happened

But you realize 3k people during a pandemic is not a good sample size? Because it spreads even if all 3k people were negative in one area? There were protests with everybody wearing masks and there were places with some and some not.

This isn't even my opinion. This is what Cuomo said about a week or two ago and Sanjay Gupta extensively discussed on CNN. At the end, it will be a tough task amongst reopenings.

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Doing great here in IL

we have competent leadership

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pinky0926 posted...

Armchair quarterback opinion:
* protests from the left
* the right thinks coronavirus is a hoax
* general fatigue over restrictions means people are taking it less seriously

Great to see an honest unbiased outlook on gfaqs.

This post sums it up nicely.

TheGoldenEel posted...

Several of the articles I posted, which cover many different cities, cite specific numbers and address concerns of the limitations of contact reacting

for example one number given is 3000 people who self reported going to protests and voluntarily got tested. 1% of tests came back positive

of people that tested positive of a different sample group, less than 5% reported attending protests

youre right that we cant get a perfect itinerary from every single person, but that is not the point of contact tracing. The point is to gather a sufficient sample size of data and get the big picture, and the picture that is forming is pointing to bars and partying as the primary drivers of spread

That doesn't factor in people who have been in contact with someone who has attended the protests, or whether they're aware that anyone around them has been to a protest at all.

pinky0926 posted...

Armchair quarterback opinion:
* protests from the left
* the right thinks coronavirus is a hoax
* general fatigue over restrictions means people are taking it less seriously

Americans tend to have a visceral indignation at being compelled to do anything for the benefit of someone else.

Annihilated posted...

That doesn't factor in people who have been in contact with someone who has attended the protests, or whether they're aware that anyone around them has been to a protest at all.

Contacting people that have been in contact with people that tested positive and determining where they have been is also part of contact tracing

you, the person sitting at your computer on gamefaqs dot gamespot dot com, have not come up with some hole in the process that people who are actually trained in this did not think of

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On_The_Edge posted...

The cognitive dissonance between people who are upset about covid spikes but didn't condemn the protests/riots is truly something to behold

Makes 0 sense tbh

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Man it's really weird how badly people want to blame the protests despite the evidence to the contrary. I'm not sure if it's simple ignorance or a desire to play gotcha with some perceived liberals but either way it's odd

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Balrog0 posted...

a desire to play gotcha with some perceived liberals

It's this. Just check out who the posters are

Anyway it's definitely the reopenings even in the states that aren't "reopened". People are stupid and the ones in the states that are still trying to fight it are looking at all the other places reopening and thinking "Oh it's probably fine for me to not wear a mask and hang out in large groups too"

Basically herd mentality on a countrywide scale

Balrog0 posted...

Man it's really weird how badly people want to blame the protests despite the evidence to the contrary. I'm not sure if it's simple ignorance or a desire to play gotcha with some perceived liberals but either way it's odd

I'm not sure how you aren't including it as a % in your "why" question. Or are you saying its weird people blaming it solely on the protests?

It's the same stupid arguments about differences in outcome. People want to be able to say "Ah yes racism/sexism is the cause!" when in reality, of course its partly caused by that, among 20 other variables.

but you know that so im assuming your post is about those who want to say "welp this is ALL bc of protests!"

Numbers wont spike too bad in cities where large scale protests/riots take place bc the majority of them are from out of town

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I wonder why we're not seeing rural areas get completely fucked yet.
Or have we?

Romes187 posted...

I'm not sure how you aren't including it as a % in your "why" question. Or are you saying its weird people blaming it solely on the protests?

It's the same stupid arguments about differences in outcome. People want to be able to say "Ah yes racism/sexism is the cause!" when in reality, of course its partly caused by that, among 20 other variables.

but you know that so im assuming your post is about those who want to say "welp this is ALL bc of protests!"

I mean I'm not going to pretend to understand public health and epidemiology more than I do (unlike a ton of overnight experts these days) but I can just look at the timeline and cases and see that the protests can't be that significant an explanation. And I'm not sure how protests worked if I do try to dig into the science; like that nber paper shows that protests might be a cause of spreading... But the net effect might be a reduction in cases when you consider the counterfactual

In general I guess I just feel really ignorant and none of these people blaming protests are even trying to argue their point in a way that seems to be in good faith to me

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I like to look at it this way. We've spent billions of dollars on telling people the risks of cigarette smoking, yet for some reason people still do it. To quote Forrest Gump, "Stupid is as Stupid does".

Ivany2008 posted...

I like to look at it this way. We've spent billions of dollars on telling people the risks of cigarette smoking, yet for some reason people still do it. To quote Forrest Gump, "Stupid is as Stupid does".

Those tobacco tax dollars have to pay for something!

If the government really cared they wouldnt be selling us death in a box

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let's keep blaming the government

instead of ourselves

even though we're to blame

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Balrog0 posted...

I mean I'm not going to pretend to understand public health and epidemiology more than I do (unlike a ton of overnight experts these days) but I can just look at the timeline and cases and see that the protests can't be that significant an explanation. And I'm not sure how protests worked if I do try to dig into the science; like that nber paper shows that protests might be a cause of spreading... But the net effect might be a reduction in cases when you consider the counterfactual

In general I guess I just feel really ignorant and none of these people blaming protests are even trying to argue their point in a way that seems to be in good faith to me

True. I've seen a lot of people argue in this fashion

You locked us down and said we are grandma killers for going outside or to the beach
You then say its fine for all this (protests)
So be consistent bruh

not saying i agree with that line of thought (i.e. mask wearing is important, though id be curious as a % of protesters wearing masks) but to me its not really a "lets base my opinion on data" as much as "let's base my opinion on what i perceive as hypocrisy"

prob not a good move, but I just can't see those protests not increasing anything...at all....I dunno it just seems a bit convenient lol

Because 95% of people are fucking stupid

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Honestly, it's very likely due to Americans being Americans.

Reopening way too early and right after a bunch of rioting where as much as people think masks are a cure all are mostly a bandaid/fail safe--mind it's still infinitely better than nothing.

Long and short, we just did it to ourselves because we are an angry and easily bored nation.

Balrog0 posted...

Man it's really weird how badly people want to blame the protests despite the evidence to the contrary. I'm not sure if it's simple ignorance or a desire to play gotcha with some perceived liberals but either way it's odd

its a dog whistle for racism thats basically it

Its not from the protesting if you dont say its from the protesting.

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soulunison2 posted...

its a dog whistle for racism thats basically it

that has to be the case in some cases but you (read: all of us) gotta stop pretending like you can read minds

scorpion41 posted...

Its not from the protesting if you dont say its from the protesting.

If only protesters weren't practicing social distancing and consistently wearing masks, you might have a point.

This is collective American stupidity. You can't blame one group or thing.

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People have not cited any sources in this topic. People are largely viewing it as a political ink blot test for your vision of society. If you dislike the left/protests, you blame them with no evidence. If you think it's due to Republicans, you blame them with no evidence. That doesn't mean some of these groups aren't more to blame than others, but the baseless speculation isn't helping.

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Romes187 posted...

that has to be the case in some cases but you (read: all of us) gotta stop pretending like you can read minds

ok boomer