Board 8 > Who do you believe will win the election? trump or biden?

(+) Yeah! (+)

which one

I can't beleive it took this long for Biden to become a betting favorite. Not too long (like a month) ago you could have gotten 1.4:1 on Biden. Trump had the element of surprise last time.

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I dont think its really a question if biden will win the election anymore, its more what the hell is going to happen after election day

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oh you mean like you think rioting might happen if trump loses?

CedarPointcp posted...

oh you mean like you think rioting might happen if trump loses?

Not necessarily i do not think his base has anywhere near the heart for protests the scale of what we have seen lately, and i say that as a man who voted for him in 2016

He just doesnt seem like he is going to take losing lightly unfortunately

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iiaattgg posted...

I dont think its really a question if biden will win the election anymore, its more what the hell is going to happen after election day

This. Trump is not a democrat (small "d", not the party). If he ever concedes I will be surprised. To be honest I don't really know what happens if the incumbent President loses then refuses to leave.

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Lightning Strikes posted...

This. Trump is not a democrat (small "d", not the party). If he ever concedes I will be surprised. To be honest I don't really know what happens if the incumbent President loses then refuses to leave.

The prudent thing to do is just let biden run the show from his basement and let trump play house on pennsylvania ave

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Pre-pandemic trump

but he's been digging his own grave so well the past few months that I can't see him winning.

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Before COVID and protests it was looking a bit too close for comfort. Now Biden's looking like a lock.

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Trump

I'm a pessimist

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Xiahou Shake posted...

Before COVID and protests it was looking a bit too close for comfort. Now Biden's looking like a lock.

To be fair, we all said this after access hollywood

America is weird man

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If Biden keeps silent like he is now, and Trump keeps self destructing, then Biden wins easy. But that's not gonna happen.

Trump hasn't even started the anti-Biden campaign yet. They've spent 4 years building up so much ammo to unleash on him when the election kicks into gear. The whole impeachment thing was specifically framed around Biden too, which people forget.

The more Biden campaigns the weaker he'll get. There's just no way to really help his own case.

The only hope for Biden is that people will care so little about any campaign nonsense, due to continued virus and protest issues deep into fall, that they will still want to vote Biden just to get Trump out.

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foolm0r0n posted...

If Biden keeps silent like he is now, and Trump keeps self destructing, then Biden wins easy. But that's not gonna happen.

Trump hasn't even started the anti-Biden campaign yet. They've spent 4 years building up so much ammo to unleash on him when the election kicks into gear. The whole impeachment thing was specifically framed around Biden too, which people forget.

The more Biden campaigns the weaker he'll get. There's just no way to really help his own case.

The only hope for Biden is that people will care so little about any campaign nonsense, due to continued virus and protest issues deep into fall, that they will still want to vote Biden just to get Trump out.

To be honest i think we are at the bottom paragraph. A presidential campaign almost seems a little silly at this point. Whether thats due to covid/protests or how small trump has made the office (or a combination) im not sure but thats where i feel people are at with it

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imagine we had a Dem running who any living, breathing, actual person wanted to vote for

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iiaattgg posted...

Not necessarily i do not think his base has anywhere near the heart for protests the scale of what we have seen lately, and i say that as a man who voted for him in 2016

He just doesnt seem like he is going to take losing lightly unfortunately

Yeah Trumps lame duck time will be a whirlwind or Executice orders and him trying to force things through or screw with stuff as much as possible before he is forced to leave. And a lot of it will not be legal/constitutional.

Ofc I dont think that will be for another 4 years

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Honestly we're at the point where it wouldn't surprise me if Trump suddenly signs an executive order the day before election day making it illegal to vote Democrat

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I actually know very little about the limitations a president has between losing an election and the incumbent's inauguration day.

I fear just how much damage Trump could do out of spite.

I honestly don't think there are any?

We could be in for a scary couple months.

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I think if Trump actually concedes it will be fine. His lame duck time will be spent tweeting and golfing and trying to find some way to remain a public figure. He's the kind of guy who will immediately lose interest in governing once he loses.

The hard part will be getting him to admit defeat no matter how badly he's beaten.
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XIII_rocks posted...

Trump

I'm a pessimist

MajinZidane posted...

imagine we had a Dem running who any living, breathing, actual person wanted to vote for

theeeeeese

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Trump will crush Biden and it won't even be close.

If the election was next week, Trump would have no chance. Several times before, Trump has dug himself into massive holes that would pretty much knockout most politicians in his position. But the election isnt next week, it's in November. This situation, along with coronavirus, will have some space between them and election day. I still don't think he will win, but I thought for sure he wouldnt win in 2016, so I'm not going to pretend it's not possible again.

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It all depends on what happens for sure. Hopefully the FBI dont just hand Trump the election this time.

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guffguy89 posted...

But the election isnt next week, it's in November. This situation, along with coronavirus, will have some space between them and election day.

covid definitely isn't gone on election day


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Lightning Strikes posted...

It all depends on what happens for sure. Hopefully the FBI dont just hand Trump the election this time.

Don't worry. Trump will get them to announce an investigation into Biden possibly creating covid.

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Okay no offense but one guy is 78 and the other is 74. Aren't there you know any younger people in USA? I mean this has to be the election with the oldest candidates there right?

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biden is 78? not really sure

It says he was born in 1942 so he will be 78 in the Election Day.

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HashtagSEP posted...

Don't worry. Trump will get them to announce an investigation into Biden possibly creating covid.

"What was Sleepy Joe cooking in his science lab? NOT GOOD!"

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Safer_777 posted...

Okay no offense but one guy is 78 and the other is 74. Aren't there you know any younger people in USA? I mean this has to be the election with the oldest candidates there right?

Trump was already the oldest person entering office at 70, before him the top 5 was Reagan/Harrison/Buchanan/H.W./Taylor at 69/68/65/64/64

... actually I kinda wanna chart the cumulative average

Safer_777 posted...

It says he was born in 1942 so he will be 78 in the Election Day.

well 77 on election day still but 78 on inauguration which is where these are marked by

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I think it's too early to tell, but I don't feel like Biden will win.

Even with this crisis we have right now with people asking about police reform, you have Biden, this fucking idiot, saying that they need to re-train police officers to shoot people in the legs. This guy has lost his mind and every single one of his "gaffes" that have come up will be on full display.

Not to mention people who are claiming that the people who will vote for Biden will be more passionate are missing that a lot of people who have had their homes, workplaces, and livelihoods destroyed by the rioters will also absolutely be angry enough to vote for Trump.

I think it's too hard to say and who knows what happens before November, but I think anyone positive Biden is going to win is opening themselves up to the 2016 election again.

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Democrats are too fickle, i would not be surprised if Trump wins.

if anyone has older relatives or has been around older people, their mental health can really decline in a hurry, it's just you never know if or when it will happen. Seen this happen to several great aunts/uncles and grandparents. Most recently, a great aunt of mine who has always been very physically and mentally agile, well into her 80s, has just recently, and quickly, took a mental decline for the worse, and is in a nursing home.


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Grimlyn posted...

... actually I kinda wanna chart the cumulative average

welp when I wanna do something...



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I've got about $1000 on Biden in Predictit that I bought for about 44 cents. I think he'll win in a landslide.

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Biden being old is a good thing. He wins, dies, and his much younger VP takes over.
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Anyway, of course he could still lose, but I don't see a good case for why Biden shouldn't be considered the favorite at this point. He's been consistently polling with a high single digit lead and recently might even be increasing that lead, and the pandemic is sure as fuck still gonna be here in November.

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Biden, but he'll try his hardest to make it close
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Anyway, of course he could still lose, but I don't see a good case for why Biden shouldn't be considered the favorite at this point. He's been consistently polling with a high single digit lead and recently might even be increasing that lead, and the pandemic is sure as fuck still gonna be here in November.

The one thing Im concerned about is mail in voting

Like the pandemic should make it all but a lock but people are still fucking fighting it in primaries


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@Grimlyn Strange how in 1909 there were the younger opponents! Damn!

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Lightning Strikes posted...

This. Trump is not a democrat (small "d", not the party). If he ever concedes I will be surprised. To be honest I don't really know what happens if the incumbent President loses then refuses to leave.

Legally he stops being President at noon on January 20th. At that point the secret service stops working for him and can forcefully remove him from the Oval Office if he refuses to leave.

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Underleveled posted...

Legally he stops being President at noon on January 20th. At that point the secret service stops working for him and can forcefully remove him from the Oval Office if he refuses to leave.

the sight of the secret service dragging trump out of the oval office, kicking and screaming, would be pretty hilarious

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This talk about Trump not accepting defeat is ridiculous. Trump isn't Hillary, he knows how to mitigate damage when he loses. Usually it's the bankruptcy court, but here, he just leaves office.

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Biden should win

Trump will win a landslide though at this rate. The radical left couldn't last another 5 months without completely shitting the bed? The overwhelming support for the violet riots happening the last few days is going to scare moderates away in droves. It doesn't really matter if people disagree with Trump's policies on healthcare/social issues/military, those topics are so abstract they don't affect the day to day life of 80% of the country. What does affect everyone's life negatively is watching cities burn to the ground, and all of these looters/rioters getting away with committing crime.

At this rate I see nothing postive coming from the "protests". The minute they turned violent and started burning shit, they lost the support of most moderates.

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Too early to say, still so many things could happen before election time.

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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Biden should win

Trump will win a landslide though at this rate. The radical left couldn't last another 5 months without completely shitting the bed? The overwhelming support for the violet riots happening the last few days is going to scare moderates away in droves. It doesn't really matter if people disagree with Trump's policies on healthcare/social issues/military, those topics are so abstract they don't affect the day to day life of 80% of the country. What does affect everyone's life negatively is watching cities burn to the ground, and all of these looters/rioters getting away with committing crime.

At this rate I see nothing postive coming from the "protests". The minute they turned violent and started burning shit, they lost the support of most moderates.

This is totally wrong. Polls show a large majority of support, and the data suggests that Trump's moves are extremely risky for him. Indeed Biden has increased his polling lead significantly since the protests began. This is mostly due to undecideds switching to Biden, with Trump's support dropping a bit as well. It is in fact the opposite of what you say - Biden's support for the protests and Trump's disastrous response have helped Biden, not Trump. At the end of the day a small minority of looters doesn't invalidate or represent the large peaceful majority, and if it did, it doesn't compare to a thousand extrajudicial murders every year.

Trump isn't doing what he's doing because he believes it will help him. The strategic response (and effective) would be very cautious. He's doing it because he's finally tipped over into believing that military oppression and murder of civilians by the state is right. If the election was today, Trump would get wrecked. The issue is of course that it's not today and there is always time for things to go horribly wrong.

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yeah, you're delusional if you think the only thing moderates have been getting out of the protests and riots is "the looters/rioters suck." i'm sure plenty of them have been fucking terrified by the police brutality that has been going on.

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Rather have the third option than the two.

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Thesuperstar2k posted...

Rather have the third option than the two.

Write in for The Rock

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