Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1362

(+) Yeah! (+)

yeah im fine with saying that Witcher should have had, say, 40%. but thats still a pretty high bar. does it get 40% on RBY? I dunno. I just dont want to overreact to a clear SFF match.

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ZenOfThunder posted...

https://i.imgur.com/my0qbDo.mp4

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_SecretSquirrel posted...

It, and the calamity pic today are a little easter egg. Click on a game and don't vote, and an image slowly pops up over the game you didn't vote for.

Thanks again! Much appreciated.

I uploaded them.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

@azuarc congrats on winning the actual contest on top of the Guru!

Did you get the $1000?

Damn, is that how much it is? I didn't look pre-contest, and once I thought I might have a chance, I couldn't find the rules page to see. I honestly assumed it would be half that at best.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Breath of the Wild/Witcher scored over 3000 more votes than the next-highest match of the contest, and Witcher 3 nearly beat it outright in Anonymous votes. It overperformed, and by quite a bit.

What did it get in registered votes?

Geez....now I want to see how BotW would do against FF VII. Especially with Remake being so recent.

I wonder if we can beg Allen to give us just one more bonus match.

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creativename posted...

Thanks again! Much appreciated.

I uploaded them.

@creativename Looking at it now, and there's a couple things.

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r5/botw-Reala.jpg is missing and has BotW's Round 4 pic in its place.

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/448607.jpg is also missing from Round 4.

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KamikazePotato posted...

Breath of the Wild/Witcher scored over 3000 more votes than the next-highest match of the contest, and Witcher 3 nearly beat it outright in Anonymous votes. It overperformed, and by quite a bit.

it might have overperformed but thats credit to Witcher.

no other game in this bracket would have been able to do to BOTW what witcher did in the 2nd half of the match in a Final

the votals were high because its the two strongest games in the contest with no heavy Sff involved.

Witcher 3 done as well as it could and proved its an elite tier game

Nah, save LoZ:BotW VS FF7 post-FF7r for the next contest.

LoZ:BotW
FF7 post-FF7r

CT
Pokemon RBY

Let that four-pack's winner lose respectably in the championship to Frog Fractions 3.

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creativename posted...

What did it get in registered votes?

Here's the breakdown of the vote totals:

10008 registered votes
10480 anonymous votes

That comes out to 48.85% registered users among the entire voting pool in the final match. There were 2 other match days that had under 48% registered users, so this match didn't even set a record for lowest percentage of registered user votes.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Breath of the Wild/Witcher scored over 3000 more votes than the next-highest match of the contest, and Witcher 3 nearly beat it outright in Anonymous votes. It overperformed, and by quite a bit.

The Witcher fanboys were crying about this on reddit. Pretty funny seeing their rally fail tbh

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Witcher 3 was rallying and rallying hard. BotW was around 59-60% throughout the first hour and I'd say that number is probably close to accurate since they both have crap board votes and inverse trends.

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_SecretSquirrel posted...

@creativename Looking at it now, and there's a couple things.

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r5/botw-Reala.jpg is missing and has BotW's Round 4 pic in its place.

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r4/448607.jpg is also missing from Round 4.

Thanks for the audit, I added them. You might need to refresh to see.

LusterSoldier posted...

Here's the breakdown of the vote totals:

10008 registered votes
10480 anonymous votes

That comes out to 48.85% registered users among the entire voting pool in the final match. There were 2 other match days that had under 48% registered users, so this match didn't even set a record for lowest percentage of registered user votes.

Thanks, but what was Witcher's registered percent?

creativename posted...

Thanks for the audit, I added them. You might need to refresh to see.

Almost there, but the duplicate BoTW Round 5 is still there, and now this is missing.

https://gamefaqs1.cbsistatic.com/images/contest/gotd-r5/botw-_SecretSquirrel.png

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There are a few factors here

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6722-whats-your-all-time-favorite-legend-of-zelda-console-game

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7610-whats-your-all-time-favorite-legend-of-zelda-console-game

Thats the 2017 Poll vs 2019 Poll

Apart from OoT being absolutely Drained by all the 3D Zeldas enough for LttP to win you can see BOTW performing a lot better than it did in 2017 where it was just all recent hype.

MM looked to get a bit weaker. Fast forward another year and with SFF in Mind its pretty evident what is happening

Indirectly MM is probably worth around 55-56% on BOTW which is what the polls suggest.

Of course multipolls play in the hand of more Dedicated fanbases. And LttP has that so does MM to an extent.

LttP wouldn't be able to beat BOTW now in a 1v1 poll imo but it would be very close i don't think LttP gets SFF'd by BOTW that much.

OoT is another story though. BOTW has clearly proven to be strong even in a multipoll like this but it wouldn't be able to have any SFF power of OoT. Then again i don't think OoT would SFF BOTW that badly either. It would just be a normal contest with OoT maybe winning with over 60%.

Witcher 3 got 4193/10146 registered votes, good for 41.33%.

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creativename posted...

Thanks, but what was Witcher's registered percent?

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild vs. The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
Registered Vote Result:
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 5877 (58.72%)
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 4131 (41.28%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 5296 (50.53%)
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 5184 (49.47%)

This match was among one of the largest voting splits we've seen between registered and anonymous users. Even in the absence of any rallies or the Kotaku article that almost surely helped boost vote totals, Breath of the Wild was very likely to do at least 4% better with registered users.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub
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Leonhart4 posted...

Witcher 3 was rallying and rallying hard. BotW was around 59-60% throughout the first hour and I'd say that number is probably close to accurate since they both have crap board votes and inverse trends.

BOTW would have ended up maybe 57-58% at best even without the rallies. And take away the double user votes that didn't exist in previous contests thats clearly benefited BOTW. I don't think the Rallies gave witcher any more than maybe 2-3% at best. IF there was a proper rally it would have outright beaten BOTW. I've seen the rally threads. It maybe got 500-600 votes tops.

Witcher 3 did pretty damn well and we need to acknowledge that and say its a legit game.

2-3% at best would indeed move 59% to 56-57% so I'm glad we agree

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Janus5k posted...

Witcher 3 got 4193/10146 registered votes, good for 41.33%.

Some of those registered votes you reported aren't of the double vote variety because of how GameFAQs reports the voting results on the stats page. I reported the registered/anonymous user voting stats differently, by treating all double votes as registered user votes and all single votes as anonymous votes.
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LusterSoldier posted...

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild vs. The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
Registered Vote Result:
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 5877 (58.72%)
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 4131 (41.28%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 5296 (50.53%)
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 5184 (49.47%)

This match was among one of the largest voting splits we've seen between registered and anonymous users. Even in the absence of any rallies or the Kotaku article that almost surely helped boost vote totals, Breath of the Wild was very likely to do at least 4% better with registered users.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kFS3SfH6sAhPdS85H7BpuFIkr9SayeF7AhMw-wrEBng/pub

When you take away the Double registered votes and lets say 2-3% off the anonymous vote % for Witcher 3 to account for some rallies..BOTW still only does 56-58 at best on a completely normal match.

Leonhart4 posted...

2-3% at best would indeed move 59% to 56-57% so I'm glad we agree

Yeah at best. But at what point do we just ignore outside influence?

Otherwise why don't we just close the poll for anonymous users and just have registered totals with no double votes.

Anonymous votes have influenced our contests for 2 decades. Its not Witcher 3's fault BOTW had barely any rallies. ITs the final of a GOTD contest between 2 incredibly well respected games. Of course there will be a ton of support for one or both games from somewhere.

It's noteworthy that when BotW faced Mass Effect 2, another WRPG, the Registered/Unregistered imbalance was .37%

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BotW barely had any rallies because it never needed any rallies.

This isn't a discussion about allowing rallies or not. This is talking about what Zelda would have done without them.

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Leonhart4 posted...

Witcher 3 was rallying and rallying hard. BotW was around 59-60% throughout the first hour and I'd say that number is probably close to accurate since they both have crap board votes and inverse trends.

Seems unfair to discredit the Europe vote overnight, which is pretty much Witchers strongest time.

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LamarJackson posted...

Seems unfair to discredit the Europe vote overnight, which is pretty much Witchers strongest time.

Sure, but BotW would've gotten some of it back with the day vote.

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LusterSoldier posted...

Even in the absence of any rallies or the Kotaku

The WItcher was getting rallied though. Threads kept popping up on the Witcher subreddit about the final

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Witcher 3 got rallies like very match though, at some point you just gotta accept that as part of its natural strength.

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If we have Ocarina vs BotW tomorrow (which we absolutely should), I have a feeling BotW will outright beat OoT in a close match because it would have caught a bandwagon of sorts by now. The actual strength I feel BotW is still below it and Chrono Trigger and maybe even FF7.

And it absolutely deserves to beat OoT. BotW is legit game of the decade material and one of the best games ever made whereas OoT is a very good but incredibly overrated game masquerading as the best game ever which it is isnt anywhere close to being. This is coming from someone who loves the Legend of Zelda series and played Ocarina in its heyday.

jeffjimbo posted...

The WItcher was getting rallied though. Threads kept popping up on the Witcher subreddit about the final

Yes, I know that did happen. I was saying that BotW would have been expected to do at least 4% better with registered users compared to anonymous users before factoring in the rallies which extended that difference to around 8% instead.
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Axl_Rose_85 posted...

If we have Ocarina vs BotW tomorrow (which we absolutely should)

No way. I want that match when there's prize money at stake.

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LamarJackson posted...

Witcher 3 got rallies like very match though, at some point you just gotta accept that as part of its natural strength.

Sure, but the vote totals indicate that this one was a lot more intense.

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Axl_Rose_85 posted...

If we have Ocarina vs BotW tomorrow (which we absolutely should), I have a feeling BotW will outright beat OoT in a close match because it would have caught a bandwagon of sorts by now. The actual strength I feel BotW is still below it and Chrono Trigger and maybe even FF7.

And it absolutely deserves to beat OoT. BotW is legit game of the decade material and one of the best games ever made whereas OoT is a very good but incredibly overrated game masquerading as the best game ever which it is isnt anywhere close to being. This is coming from someone who loves the Legend of Zelda series and played Ocarina in its heyday.

OoT was the greatest game of all time back in its time period. ITs not masquerading anything. It was legit the best game for a very very long time. Give it 15 years and BOTW will be outdated too.

Skyrim was overhyped too in 2011. These games come and go. OoT will always have that nostalgic factor.

BOTW is an incredible game. But when BOTW2 adds decent dungeons and mini bosses along with the exapnsive rich world it would have already surpassed BOTW1.

Well at least Witcher 3 put BotW below 67% unlike all the other games. Bonus match is super boring though which I suppose is fitting

We have to be at least thankful Majora ended up winning GOTD1. We could have had BotW vs Brawl here instead.

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Yeah, at best BotW probably only does slightly better against Witcher 3 without the rallies. In the end Witcher 3 has legit strength.

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My name is on the leaderboard at 50th place! I have never been on there before in all contests and now its here to stay. This feels great. Thanks a lot The Show.

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Alright my dudes, it was a fun contest, see you later. Im out.
My Score was: 373

i wonder what would the result have been if the zelda fanbase on reddit actually gave a shit about this contest.

squexa posted...

We have to be at least thankful Majora ended up winning GOTD1. We could have had BotW vs Brawl here instead.

we should've had BotW vs. FFX
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adamko posted...

i wonder what would the result have been if the zelda fanbase on reddit actually gave a shit about this contest.

Rallies are harder to do when your game is winning. It wouldn't really change much because they would just see the results then sit back and watch. They would take action if things got close but that day would never come.
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LeonhartFour posted...

we should've had BotW vs. FFX

We all know how that would go down.

Trend chart:

Time | BOTW | Witcher 3 | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 59.34% | 40.66% | 632 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 59.98% | 40.02% | 3896 | (0:00-1:00)
ENV | 58.28% | 41.72% | 9940 | (1:00-6:00)
DNV | 51.45% | 48.55% | 4132 | (6:00-11:00)
TMV | 53.92% | 46.08% | 7516 | (11:00-17:00)
TDV | 54.84% | 45.16% | 4953 | (17:00-24:00)

Look at those rallies.
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HeroicCrono posted...

We all know how that would go down.

I'd be totally okay with BotW winning if it meant FFX won GotD1!
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

Heck, BotW is a return to form, being similar to Zelda 1 in a lot of ways, while MM is one of the more diverging entries in the series.

I don't remember Zelda 1 having bullshit weapon durability and a complete lack of dungeons. BotW is the least formulaic Zelda since 2, and it shows with the absolutely boring gameplay loop.

Zelda 2 and BotW are the only 2 Zelda games that feel like a grindy chore to suffer through

squexa posted...

We have to be at least thankful Majora ended up winning GOTD1. We could have had BotW vs Brawl here instead.

I wanna bounce off of transience's theory of the last GotD-contest and yo's idea of a living breathing contest.

We really didn't know what game was going to win last decade. Melee, Brawl, and FFX all seemed to be the favorite in some way, but when it was looking like Brawl could actually do it Majora's Mask was in the right place at the right time to catch wind of a ship some people didn't want to sail all the way to the finish line. It earned the GotD-championship, but also it was something of an impromptu GotD-winner not many of us thought it was truly going to be GotD-material.

Meanwhile, Breath of the Wild has true notoriety from the very beginning and was always expected to win this contest. People have known this game was destined for greatness from release day going forward, and it acted like it every step of the way too.

All that is to say I suppose this sort of distance between them shouldn't be surprising in that context. I dunno, we still have a lot to process from this contest.

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I'll take OOT, LTTP, CT, and FF7 over BOTW. Probably RBY but I could see the Pokemon tide ebbing since 2015 so I'm not sure. I know BOTW is beating MM more than LTTP did but there is probably SFF and moreover, I have a sense that people are treating this match as a proxy for a contest between the 00s and 10s. I feel weirdly confident in LTTP.

Majora's Mask probably over performed against LttP in 2015. There was definetly spillover from the Undertale rally the day before.

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cerna_zelva posted...

I don't remember Zelda 1 having bullshit weapon durability

Somebody forgot their early days with the candle.

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