Board 8 > Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6

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transcience
05/10/20 8:21:24 PM
#251:


Leonhart4 posted...
And now Zelda is doing to Smash what Smash did to Spidey

its clearly an a > b > c > a situation

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add the c and back away
iphonesience
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Leonhart4
05/10/20 8:22:01 PM
#252:


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transcience
05/10/20 8:32:15 PM
#253:


for all the spider man weirdos I recommend this glorious video

https://youtu.be/vdyHRE9lUyg

Ive been meaning to play spider man but nothing made me almost pull the trigger like this thing

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add the c and back away
iphonesience
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FFDragon
05/10/20 8:34:15 PM
#254:


I actually just platniumed Spiderman.

It's real good.

Swinging through New York feels as fun as it should be.

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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person?
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Leonhart4
05/10/20 8:35:48 PM
#255:


It's fantastic and that's why I've pushed so hard for it as a legit game

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transience
05/10/20 8:38:50 PM
#256:


you know as well as I do that being a fantastic game isn't enough to do well in a contest here

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xyzzy
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KamikazePotato
05/10/20 8:40:05 PM
#257:


transience posted...
you know as well as I do that being a fantastic game isn't enough to do well in a contest here
I'm still annoyed that, even by indie game standards, Celeste looks as weak as it does.

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It's Reyn Time.
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transience
05/10/20 8:40:33 PM
#258:


game of the decade!

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xyzzy
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Nintendogs
05/10/20 8:55:44 PM
#259:


TsunamiXXVIII posted...
...Wait wait wait, am I reading that right? There was a huge TLoU2 leak just before the match...and everyone's convinced that it hurt TLoU? On the site where being announced for Brawl made a bunch of characters boost in 2007 and then Brawl actually coming out made them deboost in 2008? Where Lightning is worth 36% on Sonic in a true 1v1 before FFXIII is out in the US, and then can't even beat an LFF'd Donkey Kong, King of the Chokers, three years later? Where Cloud's only 1v1 loss to anyone other than Link was Mario on Super Mario Sunshine's release date, Charizard won a division because the final was on HGSS's release date, and Golden Sun upset GTA San Andreas on Dark Dawn's release date--note that two of these three games ended up as huge disappointments. Hype is far more powerful than actual games; these leaks must've made it out to be absolutely awful for that to backfire.

Weren't they the ones that started the Undertale rally though? I could've sworn the tumblr that started the Undertale movement was actually devoted to Dark Souls and we were wondering why they didn't rally that game instead.
Actually, the so-called "honeymoon" phase for games is equally as powerful as the "hype" stage.
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MechanicalWall
05/10/20 9:02:58 PM
#260:


Master Moltar posted...
the other semi-final match is eligible to be signed up for as soon as the current ongoing matches end
In that case I'll take Skyrim v Witcher

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Nintendogs
05/10/20 9:07:53 PM
#261:


@Master_Moltar Are you gonna make a thread for it?
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LeonhartFour
05/10/20 9:10:10 PM
#262:


transience posted...
you know as well as I do that being a fantastic game isn't enough to do well in a contest here


oh I know but it actually has all the ingredients to be legit
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TsunamiXXVIII
05/10/20 10:14:49 PM
#263:


Nintendogs posted...
Actually, the so-called "honeymoon" phase for games is equally as powerful as the "hype" stage.
I don't think that's true. Granted, our best tests of that were trying to take down RallyFEAR (Fallout 3 vs. Undertale shortly after Fallout 4's release) or just generally outmatched (Nioh vs. God of War shortly after Nioh 2's release, though considering that Nioh was an underdog even in R1...well, there's hype factor again).

But more importantly, I fail to see how that's relevant. The "honeymoon" period isn't in play in this match.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.
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tgs2
05/10/20 10:19:15 PM
#264:


Golden Sun/FFX technically counts for an "honeymoon phase" boost? GS crushed San Andreas on release day and for the first hour was putting up an hilariously high percentage on FFX not too long after.
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TsunamiXXVIII
05/10/20 10:25:21 PM
#265:


tgs2 posted...
Golden Sun/FFX technically counts for an "honeymoon phase" boost? GS crushed San Andreas on release day and for the first hour was putting up an hilariously high percentage on FFX not too long after.

Okay, I'll concede that, although Final Fantasy games getting beat up by the board vote is nothing new. "Nintendo Power Hour", remember?

...I'm still mad. 7 years we waited on a mere vague sequel hook, and we get a clear "to be continued"and a lack of freedom to go back to areas you'd already been.

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Also known as Cyberchao X.
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Master Moltar
05/10/20 10:31:44 PM
#266:


MechanicalWall posted...
@Master_Moltar In that case I'll take Skyrim v Witcher
ok

Nintendogs posted...
@Master_Moltar Are you gonna make a thread for it?
nah

though anyone that wants to can send me write-ups and I can post them with the rest of the crew as unofficial guests

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Moltar Status: hype
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Master Moltar
05/11/20 1:53:11 AM
#267:


Previous Results: Witcher beats its toughest opponent yet in P5 without too much trouble. Skyrim, on the other hand, does struggle with Dark Souls.

Crew Predictions: 117/124

Next Round Thoughts: who knows???

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 116
Kleenex: 116
Leonhart: 111
transience: 110
Guest: 101

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex gets the point for Witcher and MechanicalWall gets the point for Skyrim.

Moltar: 35
transience: 26
Kleenex: 21
Leonhart: 19
Guest: 19 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall (3), Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog, FFDragon, Sir Chris, DoctorJimmy)

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Moltar Status: hype
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LusterSoldier
05/11/20 3:42:14 AM
#268:


Master Moltar posted...
though anyone that wants to can send me write-ups and I can post them with the rest of the crew as unofficial guests


We could also end up having bonus matches, so the crew members might want to plan ahead for those matches. The only real agreement among the board on the subject of bonus matches are BotW/Majora's Mask and Skyrim/Smash (third place match). There's still room for 2 more matches to be run as bonus matches along with those 2, but we'll likely know what they are ahead of time if Allen wants to accept match pictures for them.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ!
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Leonhart4
05/11/20 10:04:06 AM
#269:


Eh, bonus matches have never "counted" for Crew points, if I remember right. Participating in them is optional.

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Master Moltar
05/11/20 10:36:25 AM
#270:


*~CREW STRANDING~*



Moltar: Oh, were doing this now? Its an odd time to start this but whatever.

...

Moltar: Whew, Im here. Finally back to Western Knot City!

Leonhart: Hey Moltar, were over here!

Moltar: Hey guys, looks like Everyone is here!

Kleenex: Its good to see you again. How was the trip?

Moltar: Actually not too bad, there was a system of zip-lines set up that actually made backtracking all this way pretty reasonable.

transience: Still took too long, even I got here before you!

Moltar: actually yeah wtf, how did you all get here so quickly?

transience: I used a truck and drove here.

Kleenex: I used a fast travel bunker.

Leonhart: I used teleportation with a magical umbrella.

Moltar: ok stop ive heard enough.



Moltar: Anyway, since were all here, now what?

Leonhart: I think thats it. Allen was here for a final debrief, but he left before you got here because you took too long.

Moltar:

Kleenex: It does sound like you had the most fun getting here though. Zooming around on zip-lines sounds so cool!

transience: Now that weve done everything and the world is saved and GameFAQs is reconnected Im getting outta here.

Moltar: Wait...after everything Ive gone through. I cant just let it end like this. While I traveled from here to Square Knot City, and then to Nintendo Knot City and Indie Knot City...I saw a lot out there. GameFAQs, this world, is in a really bad state. With everything going on out there making it impossible for people to go outside and see each other in person, I think...we should continue to help everyone.

Leonhart: What do you mean?

Moltar: Leonhart, you told me that words are the most powerful tools we have in this day and age. Youre right about that, communication is extremely important. We can keep giving the people hope in this time. We can give them information. We can give them...write-ups.

Kleenex: Hows that going to help?

Moltar: The write-ups that we create, these can analyze situations and give the people knowledge. This knowledge can give people the power to make their own decisions in these tough times. You said it yourself Kleenex, you want the best for your citizens. By delivering write-ups to those people, they will be more informed, and stuff like TROLLS and BTs will just go away.

transience: And how do we do that?

Moltar: Well, the GameFAQs global network is reconnected right? The system is already in place and we know it works. We can send anything we want across the entire world with ease now. Its thanks to the decisions that you all made that this idea is possible.

Kleenex: Well, Im down to try this!

Leonhart: Yeah, I like this idea. Count me in too.

transience: I dont want to be considered out-of-touch so Ill join this crew as well!

Moltar: That settles it! I guess we are a...what did you say transience, crew? I like that name for us.

transience: Ha, see Ive got some good idea in this ol head of mine.

Kleenex: Ive got ideas too, and I cant wait to share them with everyone!

Leonhart: A crew of people analyzing situations and giving their thoughts on them in the form of write-ups. What a unique concept!

Moltar: Glad to have all three of you on-board. Therefore, as of this moment, were no longer a-







*Suddenly, Moltar found himself no longer surrounded by his peers. In the blink of an eye, he was all alone, isolated, in an unidentified location.*

Moltar: Huh, where am I?

...

Moltar: Theres sand...and water...some rocks over there. This looks like...am I on a beach? I thought these were all supposed to be closed. How did I get here?

???: Beach? I guess you could call this a beach.

Moltar: Huh? Who said that?

???: *Moltar quickly spun around, but there was no one but him standing there.*

Moltar: Whats going on? Who is narrating this?

???: Hmm, thats a good question. Narrator is kind of a boring name though. What should I go by...how about Disembodied Voice? That fits what Im doing but...nah, I dont like that either...Wait, I got it! I am the Voice of God.

Moltar: Is this for real?

Voice of God: Very real. I also wouldnt worry about leaving this place. This is your new home now.

Moltar: What? But why

Voice of God: You successfully reconnected GameFAQs. Your mission is complete, your story is done. You dont have any other reason to be in that world.

Moltar: Huh? How do you...why are you even saying?

Voice of God: You needed an adventure right? A reason to go on a journey. Therefore, I decided to give you one, a purpose to exist in that world. I disconnected GameFAQs so you could go on a quest to reconnect it.

Moltar: Im...so confused. Who...who are you?

...

Voice of God: Turn around, Im standing right here.

Voice of God: *Moltar slowly turned out, and his eyes opened wide in shock at the figure that now stood before him.*

Voice of God: Im so happy. I couldnt wait to see you again, ehehe~!

Moltar: ...No...it cant be..what...what are you doing here.



...

EPISODE 6

Moltar: MONIKA

*~CREW STRANDING~*

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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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ZeldaTPLink
05/11/20 10:39:55 AM
#271:


The Crew is now a cinematic universe.
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hylianknight3
05/11/20 10:40:31 AM
#272:


Wow, now THAT was a twist I didn't see coming! X_X

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Kampfmaschine Advokaiser punched my lights out in the 2018 Guru.
My bracket was soft... just like my heart!
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LeonhartFour
05/11/20 10:52:02 AM
#273:


ah so that's why Doki Doki Literature Club didn't make the contest
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ctesjbuvf
05/11/20 10:54:51 AM
#274:


Ha, that was a great read

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The Mana Sword
05/11/20 12:53:16 PM
#275:


ZeldaTPLink posted...
The Crew is now a cinematic universe.

cinematic crewniverse

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Master Moltar
05/11/20 3:56:06 PM
#276:


The Mana Sword posted...
cinematic crewniverse


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Master Moltar
05/11/20 6:10:12 PM
#277:


Round 6 The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Moltars Analysis

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
Round 1 84.07% vs. Assassin's Creed Odyssey
Round 2 78.40% vs. Mass Effect 3
Round 3 60.60% vs. Super Mario Galaxy 2
Round 4 64.48% vs. God of War
Round 5 56.53% vs. Persona 5

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Round 1 84.00% vs. Subnautica
Round 2 74.98% vs. Journey
Round 3 60.90% vs. Mario Kart 8
Round 4 59.82% vs. Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version
Round 5 52.68% vs. Dark Souls

Here we are, the last actually debatable match in this bracket. Who is going to get fed to Zelda in the next round?

Both these games were in 2015, Witcher 3 was pretty fresh while Skyrim had been established. In that contest, Skyrim was the stronger game. Since then, Witcher has exploded in popularity while Skyrim, still respected, has kind of faded away.

Fast forward to 2020, and Witcher has pretty much out-done Skyrim in every round. There was even a 5 poll a few days ago with both Skyrim and Persona 5, and Skyrim was unable to perform better on P5 than Witcher did in its match. It clearly looks like the roles have reversed, with Witcher looking to be the king of the western games.

Honestly? It probably wins this pretty comfortably. Look at every other western game its faced so far. Its clearly overperformed on all of them. Skyrim might be the exception because it used to be the top dog, but I wouldnt count on it. I think the two are fairly close indirectly, so sprinkle on some western SFF or whatever you want to call it and...

Moltars Bracket: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Moltars Prediction: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 56%

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transiences Analysis

I went into the quarterfinals thinking that Persona 5 was maybe a quarter step better than Dark Souls, and Witcher beat P5 by a bigger margin than Skyrim beat Dark Souls. I think it's safe to say that Witcher is the clear favourite going into the most anticipated match of the contest, Mario/Smash notwithstanding.

But here's the thing: like Mario/Smash, this is a clear SFF match. Witcher and Skyrim are *the* two premiere open world WRPGs of this decade. We've already seen this kind of thing with Witcher 3/Mass Effect 3, and Mass Effect 2/Fallout 4. Mass Effect isn't an open world RPG in the same way that Skyrim and Witcher are, but there's a clear hierarchy at play here.

Skyrim loomed huge over the subgenre for years, until Witcher 3 came out. Witcher 3 has pretty much stolen Skyrim's perch over the last couple of years though. It's everywhere. It's on the Switch. (Skyrim is too.) It's got its own Netflix show. It's gotten lots of DLC. Even people who don't play WRPGs have to deal with the ubiquity of Witcher 3.

Most importantly, though, is Cyberpunk. Cyberpunk 2077 is the biggest game of the year, bar none. It was front and center last e3, and the year before that too. THey even had Keanu on stage and his pure response was a meme. Elder Scrolls 6, on the other hand, is a logo on a screen at this point. Another game, Starfield, was supposed to be revealed this year but covid probably derailed that.

Bethesda is looked down on thanks to the Fallout debacle while CDPR is brand gold with fans, labor practices notwithstanding. (if people think Last of Us lost due to poor labor practices, I recommend people take a look at CDPR.) Any "best RPG list" that's come out recently will have Witcher at the very top of the list, and Skyrim distant just because Witcher managed to push it off the mountain so hard.

Skyrim had a good argument pre-contest, as there was a clear strength gap between the two games and this site has a clear tendency to favor the originator over the iterative game that improves things. Witcher lost a disappointing match to MGS2 in 2015 (one that lost me points!) while Skyrim, weaker but still strong, beat Metroid Prime. But Witcher 3 has risen to heaven since then, and if this is the SFF match that I think it might be, this might get real, real ugly. Forget worrying about potential God of War SFF -- we could see the bottom of the bracket look like real poopoo after this one. We need a third place match between Smash and Skyrim real bad.

transience's prediction: The Witcher 3 with 59.43%

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Leonharts Analysis

I dont know what to think of this match now that its here. I still favor Witcher 3, of course, but its been so schizophrenic. It looks unbelievably dominant when its facing western games, but it looks mortal facing a mainline Mario game and the biggest JRPG of the decade. Now its facing Skyrim, a game thats certainly more of its peer than any of the other games its facing. It can lay claim to the title of most important western game of the decade even more than Witcher 3 can. There were some people who argued Skyrim wouldnt be able to hold up to the power of Dark Souls status as perhaps the overall most influential game of the decade period, but it got the job done.

I feel like a lot of people are predicting Witcher 3 to go high here because of what its done up to this point, but I think if theres a western game that can stand up to it, its Skyrim. Or maybe Im totally wrong and Witcher 3 is its worst nightmare! Who knows at this point! I think its more likely that Skyrim wins the match outright than Witcher 3 does something crazy like pushing for the doubling though! Making my prediction, Im going to operate under the assumption that Dark Souls and Persona 5 are essentially equal, which is probably fairly accurate.

Leonharts Vote: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt

Leonharts Prediction: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt with 54.07%
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Kleenexs Analysis

After all the doom and gloom surrounding Skyrim for the past month or so, here we are at the expected semifinal match, and realistically the last match of the contest - the finals is basically an exhibition at this point. I think you can still probably make a case for either game to win here, but the fact of the matter is that Witcher really has looked better every step of the way. The Pokemon match notwithstanding, Skyrim has been running slightly below par every match so far, while Witcher has been exceeding expectations left and right. If you really want to get spicy, you could probably argue that every game The Witcher has faced so far is overrated, so its results are less impressive than they seem at first. And you know what? I could actually almost buy that. Even if that were the case, however, I still have to think Skyrim is at a disadvantage. The only real way Skyrim can win this is a kind of weird Mario/Samus situation where Skyrim has the hierarchical advantage over The Witcher...but that doesnt even seem to be the case anymore. Maybe a few years ago you could have made that argument, not now, though. All the pieces are in place for Geralt and Friends to make the final. I will drop one hot take in here before I finish - I actually dont think theres going to be a ton of SFF today. Witcher should still win, but Im not expecting it to be a massive beatdown or anything. Not like I have anything to lose accuracy-wise anyway.

Kleenexs Prediction: The Witcher 3 with 53%

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Moltar Status: hype
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Master Moltar
05/11/20 6:10:47 PM
#278:


Guests Analysis MechanicalWall

Witcher and Skyrim. Both titans of their genre. Both incredibly worthy of the contest title, and have made it this far in bracket in order to try and earn it (before getting dumpstered by Zelda anyway). Both worthy of respect and an appropriate analysis here.

So of course I'm gonna spend a huge part of this write-up talking about the games they just wasted.

No seriously, if you want to give Skyrim a fair shake here, you REALLY have to decide if scoring four points less on Dark Souls than Witcher did on P5 is good enough.

Let's start with Witcher and P5 because I think that's an open-and-shut case. It felt to me like P5 flew under the radar a bit compared to the other three games in this conversation, no doubt because it was stuck in what must have been the weakest eightpack in the contest. It wasn't until Division finals where we got to see it take on an actually decent game, and that match, combined with the Smash v Xenoblade match, paints what to me is a vivid picture.

Thankfully, both P4 and P5 got to face an RDR game. P4 went almost even, P5 beat RDR2 by proxy by almost ten points. And if RDR, P4, and XBC are within one or two points of each other, and XBC held up REMARKABLY well against Smash despite potential SFF, within ten points in fact... do you see where I'm going with this? Admittedly RDR2 is almost certainly at least a bit weaker than RDR1, but following this chain of stats leads me to believe that P5 is potentially within a couple of points of Smash and Mario Odyssey, ie strong as shit. Of course, this fails if you wanna argue that RDR2 was substantially weaker than the first, but eh, it got the 2 seed while RDR1 was stuck with the 4; it couldn't be THAT much weaker.

With that in mind, Witcher breaking 56% on Persona is actually more impressive to me than its God of War result. There's no talking around Witcher's strength with 'Western SFF' here, it put up a big number on a game that can at least theoretically hang with 2 of the 3 big Nintendo dogs (I'm really starting to wish Allen hadn't segregated Smash and Mario from the bottom half of the bracket). I said before the quarterfinals started that I wasn't worried if Witcher and Persona were really close because I had a lot of faith in Persona; Witcher honestly exceeded my expectations with a performance that positions it as a VERY strong contender for #2 of the whole contest.

So what about Dark Souls and Skyrim? Y'know, that match was once 65-35, according to 2015 x-stats. No, really. Hard to imagine now. Like I said in my write-up for that match, gauging Dark Souls is hard because TLOU was just too anomalous of an entity to base anything on. Now that the quarterfinals are in the books though, let's take a long-winded path to see if we can talk up Skyrim here. We can't have BOTH semis be predictable!

Dark Souls has been talked up a LOT this contest after the first couple of rounds; I was one of those people, but I only talked it up relative to TLOU. Whether it could hang with the cream of the crop is a different question. It fought MGSV twice. First time, 55%. Second, 63%. That's an 8% increase. That's GOOD, but that still really doesn't put Dark Souls in the running for a top 5 contender of THIS field, like P5 might be. On top of that, taking 2015 x-stats at face value (lol), that puts Skyrim/Dark Souls at... 57-43. And that's WITHOUT questioning how much of a step MGSV may have lost.

So, if we're taking this at face value (lol), that means that Skyrim has dropped at least 4 or 5 points... and what do you know, that's almost exactly the same difference between its theoretical matchup vs Journey in 2015 and its actual match vs Journey in 2020. Guess it really was fair to bag on Skyrim all the way back in Round 2. I know going too far down the rabbit hole of x-stats is dangerous, but I can't ignore how consistent of a picture this paints vis a vis Skyrim's decline.

Oh darn, I was supposed to be trying to big Skyrim up and make this match sound debatable, wasn't I? Well, the more I write, the more it becomes clear that I just can't (I didn't even realize the Dark Souls/Journey thing until I got to those specific paragraphs!). Not only do I think P5 is just straight up stronger than Dark Souls, but Witcher 3 matched Skyrim's 2015 x-stat on Galaxy 2, so the best I can say at this point is that Skyrim can go out with a respectable 54-46.

BUT that's certainly not the end of the story. I suspect that Galaxy 2 is at least a bit better than it was 5 years ago, partly due to this Nintendo renaissance ushered in by the Switch and partly because it's kinda necessary for my 'P5 is a Smash-tier game' theory; this would mean Witcher put up the same number on a potentially stronger version of the same game. But WAY more importantly, it's the dreaded 'Western SFF'! And this time, Witcher and Skyrim share more than being made in the same hemisphere (Poland is actually in the eastern hemisphere but lol); they're unambiguously both WRPGs, both open-world, and share a similar aesthetic.

But even beyond that, Witcher vs Skyrim is a match I'm glad happened. Skyrim was once the unambiguous standard bearer for this sort of game, the ideal they were all held to. But just as popular sentiment was turning against Bethesda due to Fallout 4 (only the beginning of that turn, natch!), CDPR challenged them for the throne with Witcher 3, an open-world WRPG with a ridiculous density of quality writing and vaguely better combat, graphics, and performance than Bethesda's games. And as of 2020, I feel CDPR has pretty decisively won that battle. Not only have they, as a company, ingratiated themselves with the gaming community in a way most others can only dream of, but more and more people are using Witcher 3 as the standard bearer of open-world RPGs, of quality writing, of substantive sidequests (ESPECIALLY this one). None of this is to diss Skyrim; it was bound to be surpassed in mind share eventually, and Witcher arguably doesn't exist without it anyway.

This match is a sort of passing of the torch, and because of that, Skyrim is gonna look pretty bad going out. This could be SFF on a pretty huge scale; if you thought Witcher scored 4 or 5 extra points on GoW for merely being a western game, this one could get a lot worse.

MechanicalWall prediction: Witcher 3 61%

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Master Moltar
05/11/20 6:12:32 PM
#279:


Guests Analysis ctes

As soon as Moltar said unofficial guests are welcome, I knew I'd do it, so thank you, Moltar! And if you're tired of reading write-ups by now just skip this one lol. Anyway, I always enjoy the days I'm up and this way I don't take the spot from anyone. It's fun to see explanations and guesses together where we had no chance to hear each other beforehand and then see how it goes. The actual accuracy point matters a lot less in comparison.

As for the match, well, here we are. The most important match of the bracket. I am one of the many that went with Skyrim here, as it were way ahead five years ago and was being discussed as the second best of the decade along with Smash for a long time. When the bracket came, it was the most obvious choice. It no longer is. Witcher 3 has had a really good contest and shown itself to be clearly stronger than its 2015 and having gathered a lot of respect since then. Skyrim has had some matches where it didn't look too tough and the general opinion seems to be that Witcher 3 improved the genre to a point where Skyrim isn't as strong. Then there's a Bethesda backlash to consider.

This was also the match I debated the most with myself when making my bracket, or well, at least it was the most important one of them. In the end, I didn't go through with the upset, but I made a second bracket with the account I tend to use on my mobile for the sole purpose of picking the other choice in this match. It's the only additional bracket I made. Obviously, it's a huge shame I didn't pull through with it, I'd have a good chance of ending on the leaderboard then, we'll see if my mobile account does. Had we not had all these anti-rally measures these days, I would've gone ahead with it, since I believed Witcher 3 could flip a close match with those.

Now, there are few reasons not to think Witcher 3 wins this with how everyone thinks of these games today, but I've defended Skyrim all contest and I will do so today as well even if it loses without Witcher 3 being close to dropping it. I don't believe Skyrim is that much worse than in 2015, and I don't believe something like "it's cool to hate on Skyrim now", or whatever happened when newer games improved the formula, makes a difference. It's probably just a vocal minority, most of our userbase doesn't think that way anymore, perhaps because we're older. I think Bethesda backlash matters more and that along with Witcher 3 rising a lot will keep it from victory. Seriously though, with the Besthesda backlash getting 84% on anything, even if it is Subnautica, is a good result. Journey had a lot of reason to be stronger. Mario Kart 8 had every reason to be stronger and we can deny it all we want, but it is. Dark Souls had every reason to be stronger too. And Pokemon? Well, I never know what to make of it, but I believe it was a strong showing, HGSS are highly respected among old and new fans alike.

Skyrim has had a rough contest in the sense that the bracket was perfectly set up to embarass it. People have such a hard time accepting Mario Kart has strength and to a lesser extend Journey. We already made the valid FFVII points of not blowout Subnautica out harder and liked to forget how little blowouts mean. We made extreme calls after 5 minutes even after roudns of seeing Skyrim rise to heaven during the 24 hours. When Dark Souls didn't pull off the upset people had entertained for so long and a good bunch thought being a lock, Dark Souls just gets praised instead. Then when Witcher 3 looks mortal against Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Persona 5, we place those two games on a pedestal instead of thinking "shouldn't Witcher 3 be doing better here?" because they're board 8 favorites.

So Skyrim will lose here, yes. But I think it's gonna be close unless there's way more SFF than I'd think. I don't believe Persona 5 is particularly stronger than Dark Souls if it is at all, judging by their divisions I think they're pretty close in strength, but I think Dark Souls looked better. I hope you'll go out in the respectable way you should and derserve instead of getting SFF'd badly.

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - 55.12%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim - 44.88%

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Crew Consensus: Skyrim gets smoked

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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
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transcience
05/11/20 6:39:04 PM
#280:


curse???

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add the c and back away
iphonesience
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MechanicalWall
05/11/20 6:41:13 PM
#281:


You and I are gonna feel pretty stupid going so high if it's a curse

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Leonhart4
05/11/20 6:45:38 PM
#282:


I mean, we all knew no one was picking Skyrim here. This would definitely be a Crew Curse if the presumptive favorite pre-contest winds up winning after we all gave up on it!

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Safer_777
05/11/20 6:52:02 PM
#283:


Funny how the roles pre contest and ongoing contest have reversed.

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Nice job Hylian Knight 3, you were better than me in the Guru Contest!
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ZeldaTPLink
05/11/20 6:56:55 PM
#284:


Imo there's a good chance Skyrim > P5 but this won't stop Skyrim from getting rekt by Witcher's SFF hammer. This game has proven it is capable of humilliating anything WRPG.
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Leonhart4
05/11/20 6:58:43 PM
#285:


ZeldaTPLink posted...
Imo there's a good chance Skyrim > P5 but this won't stop Skyrim from getting rekt by Witcher's SFF hammer. This game has proven it is capable of humilliating anything WRPG.

It hasn't really faced anything that could be considered its peer until now though.

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Safer_777
05/11/20 7:11:24 PM
#286:


True dat.

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Nice job Hylian Knight 3, you were better than me in the Guru Contest!
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transience
05/11/20 7:15:03 PM
#287:


this contest end would be so much better if we swapped division 3 and division 5/8.

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xyzzy
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transcience
05/11/20 8:01:35 PM
#288:


curse curse curse curse curse

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iphonesience
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LeonhartFour
05/11/20 8:02:35 PM
#289:


weird day for Skyrim to have a good board vote

I figured more people would still be alive in Second Chance with Witcher 3 than with Skyrim in their original brackets
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Nintendogs
05/11/20 8:05:32 PM
#290:


Can I take the final guest spot?
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LeonhartFour
05/11/20 8:11:20 PM
#291:


I'm just glad this talk of Witcher 3 SFFing Skyrim to oblivion (pun intended) can be put to rest.
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transcience
05/11/20 8:12:26 PM
#292:


dont say that until we see the dreaded third update

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iphonesience
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LeonhartFour
05/11/20 8:15:46 PM
#293:


I think we're okay

I mean Witcher 3 could still win like 55/45 but I don't think it's getting close to 60
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transcience
05/11/20 8:17:06 PM
#294:


yeah pushing back on Skyrim being weak all this time was the right move

but sff, not so much

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add the c and back away
iphonesience
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Mac Arrowny
05/11/20 8:33:52 PM
#295:


Haven't there been a few close SFF matches over the years? Stuff like Cloud vs. Sephiroth or Super Metroid vs. Super Mario Kart.
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The Mana Sword
05/11/20 8:33:59 PM
#296:


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MechanicalWall
05/11/20 8:34:32 PM
#297:


It's still early

Witcher and Skyrim have identical trends, so it's either a stall fest, one game crawls up on a diluted trend, or one just fcking runs with it

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Master Moltar
05/11/20 8:36:24 PM
#299:


Nintendogs posted...
Can I take the final guest spot?
ya

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Moltar Status: hype
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LeonhartFour
05/11/20 8:36:48 PM
#300:


Mac Arrowny posted...
Haven't there been a few close SFF matches over the years? Stuff like Cloud vs. Sephiroth or Super Metroid vs. Super Mario Kart.


I mean, it's not really SFF in that case!

But yeah, SFF doesn't always happen even when it's the same fanbase.
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The Mana Sword
05/11/20 8:43:30 PM
#301:


Also can I saw how horrendously disappointing theres no Geralt in bath picture for Witcher

Better get one tomorrow

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