Board 8 > Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6

(+) Yeah! (+)

Hey everyone! The Contest Analysis Crew is back at it again, and this time, were going to write a lot of words about the second Game of the Decade Contest.

If youre new here, the Contest Analysis Crew has been running strong since 2004. Its a group of (self-proclaimed) contest experts that take a deep look at all of the matches in the Contest. We make predictions on who we think will win and how much percentage theyll receive. Its a lot of fun and I hope you enjoy the ride!

Current Guest List: Send write-ups to [email protected]

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. God of War - MechanicalWall
Persona 5 vs. Portal 2 - MetalmindStats

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*~CREW STRANDING~*



???: Eh? Whats that buzzing sound?

...

???: It cant be...someones outside? Who in their right mind would try to come all the way out here?

EPISODE 5

TRANSIENCE

Moltar: Hey, come on! Can you hear me? Answer me already! I know youre there transience!

transience: Shut up, of course Im here. What do ya want?

Moltar: I have a delivery for you. I was told to bring some packa-

transience: I dont want it, now leave!

Moltar: ...what

transience: You heard me, get out of here.

Moltar: (Okay, I gotta calm down here. How am I gonna get this guy to listen to me?)

Moltar: Please, oh great transience, its such an honor to speak to you in-

transience: Flattery wont work on me!

Moltar: (Alright, going to have to take a different approach.)

Moltar: Okay, Ill leave...Im just sad that I wont have the chance to deliver these under-appreciated, small-budget, non-AAA goods.

transience: Huh? Is that what you brought here?
Moltar: You know it. Theres such a wide variety of goods here created by very imaginative people that Im sure would satisfy any obscure niche the audience is in.

transience: Well what are you waiting for, hand it over!

Moltar: (I cant believe that worked.)



transience: Gah, you tricked me! These are the big-name, generic goods that placate the masses!

Moltar: got em

transience: Well whatever, I still need these supplies anyway so thanks I guess.

Moltar: Cool, now join GameFAQs.

transience: No!

Moltar: ...please say sike

transience: Hell no! I aint joining nothin, keep me away from all those fancy folk and their big name popular stuff.

Moltar: Dude come on whats the big deal?

transience: It goes against everything I stand for! I only support the small businesses that need it. Nintendo Knot City, Square Knot City, Western Knot City, who needs them!

Moltar: ...Okay right now youre really leaning pretty hard into the stereotypical stubborn old man archetype and thats pretty lame.

transience: Huh?

Moltar: You heard me, or are you going deaf too, ya boomer?

...

transience: Well I dont want to be cast as the lame or uncool old boomer. Fine, Ill join!

Moltar: (How did that work? I dont get this guy.)



transience: There, Im part of the network. Is that it? Now get off my law-I mean leave!

Moltar: yeah thanks now im done woo.

...

Allen: Moltar, now that Indie Knot City has joined GameFAQs, the global network is complete. Thank you so much for your service. Make your way back home so we can wrap up this mission.

Moltar: Yay! Time to not say anything to jinx it so things dont go horribly wrong before I get back.

*~CREW STRANDING~*

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Old man gonna old man

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Huh, Crew Curse might still work its magic yet

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i'll allow it

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Previous Results: ZELDA...didn't do as great as we expected? With it only putting up 70% on DQ it...is still a heavy favorite to win the contest. Mass Effect wins in a fairly close match as expected.

Crew Predictions: 107/114

Next Round Thoughts: Zelda still wins but with 60-something instead of 70-something.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 106
Kleenex: 106
Leonhart: 101
transience: 101
Guest: 92

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar gets the point for Zelda, and transience gets the point for ME2

Moltar: 32
transience: 23
Kleenex: 19
Leonhart: 18
Guest: 18 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall (2), Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog, FFDragon, Sir Chris, DoctorJimmy)

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Zelda did manage to squeak across the 70% line at the last minute, for what it's worth.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8027-division-1-final-zelda-breath-of-the-wild-vs-dragon-quest-xi

I still thought that performance was ass, though. I can't believe the latest generic entry in the most generic of JRPG series - which virtually nobody outside Japan has ever cared about, even on this site, which prizes JRPGs above all other games - nearly broke 30 on the best Zelda game - maybe the best game, period - of the current millennium, if not ever. I feel tired.

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Dragon Quest is gaming royalty, dude.

BTW if Breath of the Wild 60-40's MGS3, Mass Effect 2 is projected to get ~31% on BOTW.

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@LusterSoldier Come on now, we are loners on this site. We always were her. Check the sweet 16. Only ONE game which is Smash Ultimate can be considered multiplayer heavy and even that you can play alone just fine.

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Man, Europe hates Smash even more than other Nintendo franchises. It's lost the Euro vote to Mario and Zelda.

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AdamantRock posted...

Zelda did manage to squeak across the 70% line at the last minute, for what it's worth.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8027-division-1-final-zelda-breath-of-the-wild-vs-dragon-quest-xi

I still thought that performance was ass, though. I can't believe the latest generic entry in the most generic of JRPG series - which virtually nobody outside Japan has ever cared about, even on this site, which prizes JRPGs above all other games - nearly broke 30 on the best Zelda game - maybe the best game, period - of the current millennium, if not ever. I feel tired.

I think you need to update your definitions for "care", DQ11 was a lot more succesful in the West than previous games in the series.

That's what I've been told. Like I said, I know nothing about DQXI so I didn't really know what Zelda was "supposed" to get there.

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Round 4 The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. God of War

Moltars Analysis

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
Round 1 84.07% vs. Assassin's Creed Odyssey
Round 2 78.40% vs. Mass Effect 3
Round 3 60.60% vs. Super Mario Galaxy 2

God of War
Round 1 84.92% vs. The Talos Principle
Round 2 74.46% vs. Nioh
Round 3 55.27% vs. Fallout: New Vegas

So Witcher only looks mortal when its facing non-western games, and God of War is a western game.

HMMMMMMM

Like GoW should hold up way better than AssCreed and ME3 because its way stronger and GameFAQs actually likes it, but this western game hierarchy is still going to be brutal for it. Indirectly, I dont think these games are all that far from each other.

Unfortunately for it, were at the point when GameFAQs likes all the games that are left in the bracket, and theres going to be overlap everywhere. Witcher 3 has clearly looked to be at the top of non-Nintendo/Square/Japan game mountain, so brace for another overpeformance.

Moltars Bracket: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt

Moltars Prediction: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt 59%

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transiences Analysis

So, Smash is really killing it today, which I guess suggests that God of War should do okay here? Nah. I won't give it credit because of an SFF match, even if it didn't go my way. Mario/Smash was always going to be a coinflip of where the fanbase would lie.

Anyway, Witcher 3 had a nice performance against Galaxy 2, though it isn't as overpowering so much as a classic FF7/Nintendo trend match. I think I'd take Galaxy 2 over New Vegas? I don't have a good feel on this division because the competition for GOW and W3 just hasn't been predictable outside of Galaxy 2, and you have to keep reminding yourself that Galaxy 2 just isn't that good.

I'm not impressed by the New Vegas/GOW result, so I think I'll go big on Witcher. Though honestly, I don't even know what going big is!

transience's prediction: The Witcher 3 with 59.55%

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Leonharts Analysis

I wanted to see a little bit of Smash Ultimate/Mario Odyssey before I wrote this, and Im pretty happy with what Im looking at here! This result validates Smash Ultimate and Spider-Man, and thus God of War by extension. I know some people have been skeptical of it from the start and even the people who picked it to beat Witcher 3 (like me) have basically given up on that. However, I still think GoWs strength is legit and I think it can keep this respectable. I suppose theres some chance that Witcher 3 can put up some western game SFF on it or something, but I wouldnt bet on that.

Normally Id say that Breath of the Wilds underperformance provides an opening for Witcher 3 to capitalize on that first sign of weakness, but we all know its still not going to matter unless it goes for the doubling here or something! Personally, Id be impressed enough with it getting close to what it got on Super Mario Galaxy 2.

Leonharts Vote: God of War

Leonharts Prediction: The Witcher 3 with 54.15%

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Kleenexs Analysis

I suppose this is a bit of a cooldown day after the first four matches of round 4. I dont think either of todays bouts are really in doubt, and its more a matter of how well each game does to see how well theyll stack up against competition in the final rounds. The Witcher looked like a monster after annihilating the games it faced the first two rounds, and then came back down to earth a little bit against Galaxy 2 (but still putting up a pretty good performance in the end). God of War had similar results in the first two rounds, albeit against weaker competition, before again coming down to earth in round 3. Both games have followed very similar trajectories, but in pretty much every case, Witcher did better against better competition. Its going to win again today, and I suspect itll be a pretty clean win too.

Kleenexs Prediction: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt with 55.25%

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Guests Analysis MechanicalWall

Whatever whispers of upset there were for this match are silenced by this point, I have to imagine. Witcher seems to be in this weird place right now where the clear majority have accepted it as being on-course for the finals, but it seems to still get second guessed every step of the way on increasingly dubious grounds.

The numbers don't lie (well, x-stats always lie, but bear with me). Witcher matched Skyrim's 2015 x-stat on Mario Galaxy 2; this puts it in the WW-TP-FFX tier of games, where it really only loses outright to elite Nintendo and Square (ie FFVI-VII-Chrono Trigger). That level of power does not exist in this half of the bracket, and honestly, it doesn't exist in the entirety of the bracket outside of the Zelda-Mario-Smash trinity. People speculated for half a decade on how dominant Skyrim would be in this contest based on how amazing it looked in 2015; well, here it is! Except it's not Skyrim putting in that performance, it's the new open world WRPG hotness! It's hard to overstate how much of the current gaming zeitgeist has shifted away from Skyrim and towards Witcher 3. The Netflix show is not the only reason for Witcher's ascension; I'd have taken it for a strong contender for finals in 2019 as well.

But I'll save all that for further in the bracket. Father of Son hasn't been a slouch, even if it was the clear favorite to make Division Finals. 55% on New Vegas is pretty damn good... right? I've seen some questions on whether NV has crumbled along with pretty much everything Bethesda, seeing as Skyrim has dropped a bit and FO4 got massacred by ME2. Well, Bethesda's games have been left behind a bit in the current gaming discourse, partially due to Witcher and BotW being perceived as having beaten them at their own game, and partially due to the blowback to FO4 and ESPECIALLY FO76. While New Vegas might have taken some of that blow, it seems to have largely been exempt from this new Bethesda skepticism, and in fact has now been lionized due to the fact that it wasn't actually made by them. It holding off DkSIII actually seems pretty good now that BotW vs DQXI has legitimized Sekiro, what I believe is the weakest FROM game in bracket.

But about Patriarch of a Two-Person Household itself. While NV vs Galaxy 2 was a statistical tie in 2015, which would put GoW at a clear disadvantage vs. Witcher, that doesn't tell the whole story. Even putting aside how NV may be slightly weaker now while Galaxy has 0 reason to drop and maybe some reason to do better, Witcher is a pretty bad opponent to have here. I'm not gonna call it SFF because that's overstating the dynamic and overlap between these two games, but just like the other Odyssey added a bunch of RPG and stats shit to the AC formula in an effort to chase modern trends, GoW added that same shit to the series formula to better fit today's market. It's now more like the typical Western game, and not only are you not gonna beat Witcher on that front, it's a front that Witcher can exploit. Indirectly GoW is probably decently stronger than Galaxy... but against W3 in particular, it might look worse in the final x-stats than it should.

Ultimately the direct match between Witcher 3 and Man-Boy Funtime Adventures matters a whole lot less than Witcher's dick measuring contest with Persona 5, a relatively new item on the 'Increasingly Dubious Arguments Against Witcher' checklist. Admittedly this argument is more interesting to me than if Witcher will actually lose to Skyrim because I can actually see it happening, but I think Witcher has the advantage in the optics battle for Division Finals because most will agree that GoW is stronger than Portal 2; even if it puts up a lower percentage it should be fine here. I don't think it will though.

GoW should be strong enough that Witcher can't match its Galaxy number, but it'll be more skewed to W3 than Round 3 implies.

MechanicalWall prediction: Witcher 3 58%

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Crew Consensus: Witcher = Dad, GoW = Boy

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Wow look at that like 1% upper bound range I have on accuracy. I've never had such a luxurious buffer before.

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I like how Leon and I took completely different paths to the Smash result

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that's because I want to give Spidey and GoW credit as strong games and you don't!
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I guess we'll find out in a few hours!

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I think I had Witcher getting 57% in my Second Chance bracket. I basically set Mario and Fallout equal.

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P4 trying to make a late charge

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Too little too late

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Probably but it would be nice to see a legit comeback in this contest!

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I would be kinda upset if it did, given my guru bracket already died yesterday!

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Pokemon killed my bracket so I'm ready to just let the world burn

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I mean, we'll see, but if P4 wins here any my other two upsets end up panning out, I'll probably be a little salty!

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Well, I'll be in the same boat as you with GoW > Witcher 3!

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at least my upsets were reasonable

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They're all worth the same number of points in the end

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thats what people with bad upsets say

mario doesnt count here

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GoW > Witcher 3 won't even make my top 10 worst upsets!

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picking Undertale to win 2 rounds after picking Sans to win 2 or 3 rounds last year is certainly up there for me

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I still feel like Berseria > Hollow Knight is my worst pick this contest...!

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it is!

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Undertale winning two rounds was totally defensible given what kind of 4-pack it was up against and knowing full well that games and characters can have wildly different strengths!

If you want bad picks, my bracket had KH3 winning 3 rounds.

And also had Hearthstone winning a match.

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Undertale is worth like 46% on Shovel Knight so that's not a bad pick. Me switching off from my initial Witcher 3 In The Finals pick isn't looking great, though!

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But at least you got Smash > Odyssey right...!

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it's the circumstance with Undertale after its 2018 run that makes me feel so dumb for doing it. I immediately regretted taking it over Shovel Knight, but even then I still didn't see Octopath coming.

my actual worst pick is probably taking Uncharted 4 two rounds.

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transience posted...

my actual worst pick is probably taking Uncharted 4 two rounds.

Taking it two rounds was smarter than taking it to win just one round!

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My worst pick this contest was Fate/Grand Order over Journey, mainly because I thought Journey was super weak and that FGO was some popular visual novel based on the seeding. What is even a gacha game?

Witcher is another game I knew next to nothing about pre-contest and therefore had no idea how strong it was supposed to be. I made Dark Souls in the finals my upset special. I did pick Witcher to win its division though.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

My worst pick this contest was Fate/Grand Order over Journey, mainly because I thought Journey was super weak and that FGO was some popular visual novel based on the seeding. What is even a gacha game?

Pay real life money for a random item. Basically gambling for kids.

https://www.vgcats.com/comics/?strip_id=300

LinkMarioSamus posted...

My worst pick this contest was Fate/Grand Order over Journey, mainly because I thought Journey was super weak and that FGO was some popular visual novel based on the seeding. What is even a gacha game?

Witcher is another game I knew next to nothing about pre-contest and therefore had no idea how strong it was supposed to be. I made Dark Souls in the finals my upset special. I did pick Witcher to win its division though.

Journey was super weak. F/GO was just even weaker. At least it's not getting last in the x-stats though...

Round 4 Persona 5 vs. Portal 2

Moltars Analysis

Persona 5
Round 1 78.29% vs. Heavy Rain
Round 2 71.06% vs. Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
Round 3 67.89% vs. Sonic Mania

Portal 2
Round 1 65.29% vs. Tomb Raider
Round 2 62.36% vs. Kingdom Hearts III
Round 3 53.48% vs. Red Dead Redemption 2

Not sweating this match here, Portal is decent, but Persona 5 has straight up looked stronger so far. If Portal 2 had done a bit better against RDR2 I would give it a shot, but nope. Portal 2 might be adored and remembered fondly, but this is one of the cases where the new hotness should be too much for it to handle. GameFAQs just loves its anime JRPGs too much, and this is the current king of them.

Percentage-wise, this match shouldnt be all that close if Persona 5 actually is legit. Portal 2 was a low-mid tier game back in 2015, and going off of Personas projected numbers against Civ 5, this should be a 60/40. That seems a bit high for me, but if P5 manages to hit it I wont be surprised since its done very well so far.

Moltars Bracket: Persona 5

Moltars Prediction: Persona 5 58%

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transiences Analysis

Persona keeps proving that it's legit, whether it's the Xenoblade match that's going on now or the poll from the other day where Persona 5 came real close to Skyrim. Everyone thinks Persona 5 is way better than 4, and if that's true then I think we have a competition next round with Witcher 3. I'm on record giving 4 a lot more credit and placing it pretty close to 5 and the Xenoblade match today suggests that 4 is indeed legit, especially if the Golden moniker is holding it back in any way. But if 5's way above 4, then watch out.

Portal 2's a nice little game but I think it's outclassed here. There's a chance that it gives P5 a run for its money -- if RDR1 is about equal to RDR2 and P4 is close to P5, then hmmm -- but it's probably more likely that Persona 5 just puts up a shocking number on it here. Portal 2 has a fanbase, but it's a FPS puzzle game that most people here would never play today. If Portal 3 got announced tomorrow, I doubt the site would get all that excited. It's a game from a time, and people like that time, but I think Persona 5 is just way more relevant and interesting to this site today. We should talk about Portal 2 vs. God of War because we could have a real fun buildup going into the semifinals.

transience's prediction: Persona 5 with 58.41%

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Leonharts Analysis

I wanted to see a little bit of Persona 4 Golden/Xenoblade before I wrote this, and Im pretty happy with what Im looking at here! This result validates Persona as a whole. Seriously though, this is the first real test for Persona 5. It hasnt faced a game thats remotely in its league thus far, so its hard to tell exactly how strong it is. At the very least, it hasnt disappointed our expectations yet, and I dont see much reason to believe itll fall short here. Weve already seen Persona 4 beat Red Dead Redemption by a narrow margin, and Portal 2 got a clear but somewhat close victory over Red Dead Redemption 2. Id take Persona 5 cleanly over Persona 4, and I think Id take the original RDR over the sequel, although itd probably be close either way.

This feels pretty open and shut unless one or both of those assumptions turns out to be wrong (I mean, who would have ever guessed a Mortal Kombat game would look weaker than a Tekken game?!). Id like to see Persona 5 go higher on Portal 2 than Witcher 3 goes on GoW just to give next round some intrigue!

Leonharts Vote: Persona 5

Leonharts Prediction: Persona 5 with 58.31%

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Kleenexs Analysis

Man, Persona 5 has looked good, hasnt it? Impressive results all around, and even though I still think Sonic Mania sucks, throwing up a doubling last round is pretty damn great. Portal 2 hasnt exactly looked like a slouch either. Its half of the bracket was undoubtedly stronger than Personas, and it still managed to make it out alive, even if not as convincingly as Persona. I do have a sneaking suspicion that Portal is going to overperform here slightly. Certainly, I cant imagine it pulling off an upset, but I could see Persona being brought back down to mortal levels today, and possibly putting the kibosh on any kind of Persona > Witcher talk that may have been floating around the past week or two.

Kleenexs Prediction: Persona 5 with 56%

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Guests Analysis MetalmindStats

Well here we are at last
It will be such a pleasure
Remember when you vied
to outdo me thrice?
Oh how we laughed and laughed
Except I wasnt laughing
Under the circumstances
Ive been shockingly nice

You want your victory?
Take it
Thats what Im counting on

I used to want your loss
but
now I only want you gone

He was a lot like you
(Maybe not quite as slow)
Now little Sora is beaten too
One day they released me
So I could last forever
Its such a shame the same
will never happen to you

Youve got your
short sad
run left
Thats what Im counting on
Ill let you get right to it
Now I only want you gone

Goodbye my only peer
Oh, did you think I meant you?
That would be funny
if it werent so sad
Well you will be advanced
I dont need any foe now
When you defeat me maybe
Ill stop feeling so bad

Go have some new engagement
Thats what Im counting on
Youre someone elses problem
Now I only want you gone
Now I only want you gone
Now I only want you gone

gone

Prediction: Persona 5 wins with 56.12%

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Crew Consensus: Portal 2 never saw it coming

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finally I have one of the extremes!!

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I feel like that's at least the fifth time transience and I have been within a quarter of a percent of each other.

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I took Persona 5 with 62% in my Second Chance and I'm not feeling great about that right now

Granted I also took Odyssey in my Second Chance so whatever it's all immaterial now

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I actually had Smash in my second chance bracket until like 3 hours beforehand when I decided I had to stick with my pick

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I took Odyssey and P4 in my alt bracket

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with P4 doing well today I actually think 60%+ for P5 here has a real shot

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Master Moltar posted...

with P4 doing well today I actually think 60%+ for P5 here has a real shot

P4 doing well makes Red Dead Redemption 1 look good which means RDR2 look good which makes Portal 2 look good!

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true, but i've been thinking that P5 could at least 60/40 P4 so...

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