Board 8 > Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6

(+) Yeah! (+)

gotta save the big guns for when you need them most
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Alright Witcher calm down

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Leonhart4 posted...

Eh, bonus matches have never "counted" for Crew points, if I remember right. Participating in them is optional.

This is true. They never counted for the Oracle either, except for that one time in 2011 where it did count.
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Previous Results: Smash bows down to Zelda with a SFF beating.

Crew Predictions: 118/125

Next Round Thoughts: c'mon you know what's gonna happen

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 117
Kleenex: 117
Leonhart: 112
transience: 111
Guest: 102

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar gets the point for Zelda.

Moltar: 36
transience: 26
Kleenex: 21
Leonhart: 19
Guest: 19 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall (3), Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog, FFDragon, Sir Chris, DoctorJimmy)

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Come on Skyrim make a day vote charge

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Moltar the champion of predictions AND the master of accuracy too. A legend.

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Not even the first person to sweep both categories...!

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Really? Can you post the winners of each crew prediction and accuracy for every contest? Eh that is too much to ask I guess.

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I think it's on the wiki

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I can tell you on good authority it happened in 2015!

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So it seems Skyrim really did manage to resist Witcher's monster SFF. I guess being a nearly as strong game helps.

Safer_777 posted...

Moltar the champion of predictions

lets not get ahead of ourselves just yet

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oh boy

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ZeldaTPLink posted...

So it seems Skyrim really did manage to resist Witcher's monster SFF. I guess being a nearly as strong game helps.

SFF becomes less likely (though obviously not impossible) the closer in strength games are, and it's usually not significant if it does happen. Mario/Samus 2005 is the outlier. Mario himself hasn't been able to replicate that in other matches against Samus.

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Yeah I'd been speculating myself this was gonna be more like a SMB3/SMW instead of a Mario/LoZ.

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Round 7 The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild vs. The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt

Moltars Analysis

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
Round 1 85.02% vs. The Outer Worlds
Round 2 84.86% vs. Halo: Reach
Round 3 80.25% vs. Final Fantasy XV
Round 4 70.22% vs. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age
Round 5 68.33% vs. Mass Effect 2
Round 6 67.76% vs. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
Round 1 84.07% vs. Assassin's Creed Odyssey
Round 2 78.40% vs. Mass Effect 3
Round 3 60.60% vs. Super Mario Galaxy 2
Round 4 64.48% vs. God of War
Round 5 56.53% vs. Persona 5
Round 6 55.00% vs. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Dont need an epic write-up or pomp and circumstance or deep analysis or fireworks here. This is simple, this is obvious, this is the logical conclusion. Zelda was the heavy favorite from day 1, and nothing has happened in this contest has changed that fact. Witcher did have a very good showing and put up some great performances, but cmon, the ending was always going to be the same.

There is a small, small, small chance that Witcher can win, but it wont be based off its natural GameFAQs strength. It would have to take a very large, even bigger than reddit, complete Internet rally for that to happen. Rallying against BotW seems futile though, as everyone just likes it too much, and Im sure it could easily get counter-rallied if need be.

In terms of percentage, Witcher seems like it might be strong enough to keep this under 40%. If we throw in some extrapolation from GotY polls though, they show that BotW could go much higher (again, without any outside influence). Around 60% seems like the middleground.

So yeah, congrats BotW. Fun contest, seeya next time.

Moltars Bracket: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

Moltars Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 60%

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transiences Analysis

It'll be interesting to see how high Witcher can go here. I'm reminded of the villains contest, where we had a clear winner in Sephiroth who dramatically underperformed in the semifinals and final against Bowser and Ganondorf because it was so obvious that he was going to win. I wonder if Breath of the Wild will do something similar here.

Witcher's been showing great performances all contest. 56% on Persona and Skyrim is pretty darn good. Both of those games should be better than Mass Effect 2, though at the same time, it's getting harder to parse Galaxy 2 getting 40% on Witcher. Something doesn't feel right and a big BOTW win would kind of make all the numbers line up.

I'm not going to rely on that though. I think Witcher 3 gets a decent number on BOTW here. That doesn't mean that I think Witcher is a world beater. I just think obvious winners have a hard time going big. Then again, there's a significant chunk of people here that would never consider playing Witcher 3 so maybe BOTW just doubles every game in the bracket. That'd be pretty cool too.

Give us a third place match, SBAllen. Pretty please.

transience's prediction: Zelda: Breath of the Wild with 57.36%

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Leonharts Analysis

Well, it looks like Witcher 3 has things wrapped up, so that ends the last debatable match. Its proven itself to be a worthy finalist by comfortably dispatching of every game in its path and dominating most of them along the way. It just speaks to how much more dominant Breath of the Wild has been that this match isnt even in question. The only real issue at hand here is if it can do what Link couldnt do in 2018 and win the contest without ever letting an opponent break 40% on it (Cloud barely cleared 40% on Link in the grand finals).

Hey, how about some probably meaningless fun with numbers to wrap up the contest? Mass Effect 2 beat Super Mario Galaxy 2 in the 2010 Game of the Year, and if you extrapolate the numbers, it got 57.77% on it. That means Mass Effect 2 would get 46.65% on Witcher 3. Then ME2 got 31.67% on BOTW, which means BOTW should get 66.06% on Witcher 3 here! Of course, this is why you have to be careful about using old GOTY data to adjust X-Stats, but hey, theyre just for fun anyway. Heres hoping we get some bonus polls to help us make a bit more sense of the upper half (although those arent totally reliable either!). I think Ill bet on Breath of the Wild getting the job done and barely eclipsing 60% because the LAW is still the LAW. I think this will be my first time voting for Zelda in a final, too!

Anyway, thanks to everyone who participated and read this year! It was a blast like always. Hard to believe Ill be getting married a mere ten days after doing this nerdy thing for thetenth time, I think? I dont know how itll affect how much time I get to spend here and all that (I doubt Ill ever completely disappear until the contests die for good), but the end of a contest always gets me nostalgic about the past and contemplative about the future, especially as we grow older, the board shrinks, the vote totals diminish, and the length between contests increases. This probably isnt the last contest, at any rate, so this isnt goodbye or anything. Its just a time to remember all the good times these contests have brought us, even if they arent quite what they used to be. They still manage to bring us all together, even after nearly 20 years. Ive spent half my life as a part of this community now, which is a weird thing to consider! Anyway, until next time, everyone!

Leonharts Vote: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

Leonharts Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild with 60.01%

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Kleenexs Analysis

Here we are, two months later, at the end of another contest. Overall I think it was enjoyable, but in the long run, mostly forgettable. There werent too many super exciting matches, and the bracket was extremely chalky, so not too many upsets. Not the worst contest weve had, but its probably the most boring game one. The finals are unlikely to change that, and theres really only one important thing to debate before this match gets going - should I take a random Witcher upset to try and beat Moltar? Im no stranger to taking wild upsets in the finals. I was the only one to take OoT over FF7 in 2009 (not necessarily a wild upset, and also ignore that I was only a guest at that point), and I punted away a lead in 2010 by taking Cloud over Link to cause a 4-way tie. Not sure how I attempted to justify that second one, but thats neither here nor there.

So how can you justify a Witcher win today? I suppose it depends on if you think a rally can take off. Now so far, rallies this contest have been minimal, and Witcher hasnt been the recipient of one yet. Maybe its because no one cares, but maybe its because it never needed one. Well it definitely needs one today. Breath of the Wild has been merciless and will continue its warpath today. I do think CDPR has rallied for Witcher entities in other contests before, but does anyone care about a dinky little GameFAQs contest anymore? Probably not. So while you can sort of justify picking the upset here, Im way more risk averse in my old age than I was 10 years ago, so Im happy to just settle for the tie. Ill give Witcher a little credit and say it holds up reasonably well, but thats about it. Congratulations Zelda on your 13th contest win (counting 2005 ToC, 2006 BR and Best Year because lets face it we know why people really like 1998).

Kleenexs Prediction: ZELDA with 57.75%

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Guests Analysis Nintendogs

The finals has been reached, and it's a clash between two critically and commercially acclaimed games: Nintendo's Zelda: Breath of the Wild against CD Projekt Red's The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt. Both games have received millions of sales and numerous game awards, and both are beloved by its players (but not without some detractors too).

Zelda: Breath of the Wild came into the bracket as the favorite to win it all, and overall the game does not disappoint. The game starts out as a beat, demolishing a recently well-received RPG from Obsidian, the last Bungie game of the face of Xbox, Halo, and the most recent-numbered entry in Square's flagship series, Final Fantasy (even if the reception is divided at best). The game then began to look vulnerable against Dragon Quest, a series that didn't look so hot in previous polls, by barely putting up 70% against the game, but then was later chalked up to Dragon Quest having respectable strength after doubling division winners Mass Effect 2 and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, the latter with the classic Nintendo SFF hammer.

The Witcher 3 on the other hand, has fought well throughout the contest. It began powerful with destroying Assassin's Creed Odyssey, which is considered one of the better AC titles, and nearly pulled 80% against Mass Effect 3, a rather impressive feat even if the latter game was controversial with its ending. The Witcher 3 then pulled off an alright performance against Mario Galaxy 2, which although is a mainline Mario game, has not shown the strength compared to the classic Mario games. But that too was chalked up to SMG2 having respectable strength since it's last appearance. There was some talk about Persona 5 and its sore thumb Japanese factor being able to take down Witcher 3, but after some initial troubles Geralt ends up easily dispatching Joker and sending that kid home. Impressive feat I say.

Ditto with Skyrim. Barring some miracle unlike anything seen before on GameFAQs, The Witcher 3 takes that game down, and will now take on the mighty Breath of the Wild in an hour. It's the clear underdog here, but the big question is this: will there be a rally to help Witcher 3, or not? By pure natural strength, Zelda should have no issue taking the win per LAW, but the LAW is disproven when an outside rally takes over the site. Draven and Sans accomplished that feat, so can Geralt do the same? It's something I honestly cannot count out as it's been done before, and The Witcher 3 certainly has a fanbase that is capable of taking over a website and determining its contest winner. And surely in these wild times, anything goes. We'll see what happens.

But for me, I will take the safe route and bet on Zelda taking this contest fairly easily. May the way of the Hero lead to the Triforce.

Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild at 60.06%

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Big Bob's Unofficial Guest Contest Analysis

So here it is: the biggest match I've ever had in my 17 years of following contests on this website. The closest I've ever come to winning, and it all comes down to a longshot, hoping that something that hasn't happened all contest will suddenly change. I'm one of two people in the Guru who picked Witcher III to win the entire contest, but now I'm the only one left.

I was excited back in Round 1 when Witcher beat the ever-loving hell out of Assassin's Creed. Odyssey isn't a 16-seed game, but that had to be SFF, because there's no way that game is actually that weak. It followed up with an impressive performance against Mass Effect 3, and my bracket was riding high as a result. Then the match against SMG2 happened. Now, 60-40-ing a game that pulled over 85% in a previous match generally isn't anything to complain about, but when you have Zelda looming over your shoulder, you have to match every match count. And that was the first time Witcher showed weakness.

Still, it went right back to impressing, smacking down God of War and putting away a rallied Persona 5. Now, it's comfortably beating Skyrim, and gearing up for the fight of its life. One thing's for sure: Witcher had a harder fight getting here than Breath of the Wild did. Dragon Quest XI came and went, hardly a "game of the decade" contender. Mass Effect 2 was strong back in the day, but the poor responses to ME3 and Andromeda probably sucked a lot of life out of it. Smash Bros. Ultimate is the strongest game it's faced, but even then that's more a meme than a "game of the decade". Compare those to Dark Souls and Skyrim, two games that set the standards for the decade, and you'll realize which half of the bracket has the heavy hitters.

Of course, even having said all that, Breath of the Wild is still the stronger game on this site when it comes to natural strength. I'm not going to dispute that. But it's the only game in the bracket to challenge the Witcher III, and begs the question of whether or not others will intervene. CD Projekt Red is famous for rallying for contests over Twitter, and it had that reputation even before the series got a Netflix show starring Superman. This isn't the game that barely beat Fallout 4, or lost to Metal Gear Solid 2 several years ago. It's a game engrossed in the collective gaming conscious. When fanboys see that it needs help, they'll come to defend it.

And that's what I'm counting on.

Prediction: The Witcher III: Wild Hunt with 52%

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Crew Consensus: Zeldas wild breath gets the job done.

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aw yeah successful Price is Right

disappointed Kleenex didn't go for broke...!
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same

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According to the picmakers, Allen confirmed that there would be at least one bonus match, so let's hope for Skyrim/Ultimate, if nothing else!
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Link vs. Santa Geralt

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looks like it's BOTW vs. Majora's Mask

which will be a fun gauge of where BOTW stands but it won't really help us adjust anything...!
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With BotW/Majora's Mask confirmed as a bonus match, I guess the Crew members can start working on their write-ups for that match. And we'll need a guest for that match too.

Skyrim/Ultimate is still up in the air at this point as nothing has been confirmed regarding that match.
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aw yeah Price is Right paying off
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this result feels about right.

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Alright Zelda we get it

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Crew Predictions: 119/126

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 118
Kleenex: 118
Leonhart: 113
transience: 112
Guest: 103

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar gets the point for Witcher (or I could donate it to ctes because that's a really good pick even though it was unofficial).

Moltar: 37
transience: 26
Kleenex: 21
Leonhart: 19
Guest: 19 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall (3), Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog, FFDragon, Sir Chris, DoctorJimmy)

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Master Moltar posted...

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar gets the point for Witcher (or I could donate it to ctes because that's a really good pick even though it was unofficial).

How typical lol. But knowing I would have won that one if official is good enough for me.

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are we actually doing write ups for the bonus match

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We don't know yet. Only @Master_Moltar can confirm this. However, the safe option would be to send in a write-up just to be safe. We also have just BotW/Majora as a confirmed bonus match, with no word on whether Skyrim/Ultimate will be happening. I suspect Allen will give us just one bonus match, but you can send in a write-up for Skyrim/Ultimate if you really want to prepare in the event that match does happen.
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so are we doing this? I'm only going to bother if others are doing it too!

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I sent in a guest write-up for this match just so there's at least one write-up for the guest spot. If someone else happened to send in a guest write-up before I did, then my write-up can be turned into an unofficial guest write-up and posted with the rest of the write-ups.
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I'm fine with doing a writeup for this if Moltar is down with it.

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if ya'll wanna write something for it and post it here on your own that's fine, but i wasn't planning on doing anything for it

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all right then I won't bother
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transience's Analysis

Not sure if we're doing this, but here we go! I feel like I need to comment snarkily about how our game of the decades are Ocarina, Majora, and Breath of the Wild -- Zelda, Zelda, and Zelda. There, I got it out of my system. We all get it. ZeldaFAQs.

Majora and BOTW are really hard to compare. It depends on what you want to look at. There are two "favorite Zelda" polls out there, and BOTW edges out Majora in both, but not by any meaningful amount. If you want to try to account for overlap, Ocarina feels like it would hit Majora harder than Breath of the Wild, so maybe that is a push or a slight edge to Majora. Anyway, we can pretty much throw those out for usefulness, especially given that BOTW forges a new trail while Majora is somewhat of an Ocarina rom hack that went sideways in a ton of different ways.

If you want to look at previous results and extrapolated statistics, BOTW is at about 63% or so on 2020 Dark Souls (a fairly direct opponent for both), while Majora is at 67% on 2015 Dark Souls. "But wait, lord transience! 2020 Dark Souls is better than 2015 Dark Souls!". Okay, fine, let's use MGS5 instead. BOTW gets about 73% on 2020 MGS5 while Majora gets 71% on 2015 MGS5. "But wait, lord transience! What if the Link to the Past/Majora's Mask result is wonky, or if MGS5 fell off a cliff!". You know what, embodied voice who may or may not be me? Screw you. We're getting nowhere here. Though maybe if the LTTP/Majora result is wonky, it suggests that Majora might not stand up to Breath of the Wild. Who knows.

Maybe a better exercise is to just compare 51% on Super Metroid to 56% on Witcher 3. That's a hard one to unpack but it's the most direct we can get. Or, maybe you can invoke the 1998 corollary: when two things are equal, pick the one closest to 1998. Both of those probably favour Majora. Doesn't it seem like Twilight Princess would reach 56% on Witcher 3? It did that on KH2 which I feel like should beat Witcher 3. Witcher 3 is in unusual territory though, with a small bandwagon behind it as well as just being *the* RPG of the last 5 years. Maybe I'm underestimating it.

If we disregard previous results, I feel like Majora has fallen off a bit in recent years. I don't think it is anything significant, but anecdotally, Majora just hasn't been talked about as much as it was in the early part of the decade when the internet sorta collectively rediscovered and revisited it. That hasn't been necessary in recent years with Breath of the Wild being such a hit and Link Between Worlds being pretty okay as well.

But Breath of the Wild is a truly new thing, and we tend to really like things that are familiar but not too familiar. BOTW is definitely that. I think the question becomes how much of Zelda: Breath of the Wild's popularity is due to the Zelda part, and how much of it is Breath of the Wild. If this game is popular just because it's another Zelda on a popular platform, then I'd take Majora. But if it's because the open world formula really resonated, then I think Breath of the Wild will do well here. I'm gonna take BOTW here, though the 1998 corollary is a real thing to consider here.

transience's prediction: Zelda: Breath of the WIld with 53.44%

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Guest's Analysis - Luster Soldier

While this is an otherwise uninteresting bonus match, it will settle the debate of whether BotW or Majora's Mask is the stronger Zelda game without providing any useful information as to where BotW would rank within the top 10 games on this site. CT and OoT are the only top 10 games that would beat BotW quite easily, though I think it could break 40% on CT while OoT would just SFF it below 40%. LttP should also beat it as well, but in a much closer match (likely under 55%). FFVII and RBY are much more debatable opponents for BotW to face off against, especially FFVII after the remake being very relevant right now. BotW could rank anywhere from 4th to 6th in the top 10.

The only polls that directly compare BotW to Majora's Mask are 2 different favorite console Zelda polls, the first from 2017 and the second one from 2019. In the 2019 poll, BotW got 54.75% on Majora's Mask directly. This result does have to be viewed rather cautiously due to OoT's presence in that poll, and Majora is the one game which stands to be most affected by OoT as both games are closely tied by the console they were released on. Majora's Mask could be stronger than the console Zelda poll shows, but SFF (if it happens) could push this above 55%.

Luster Soldier's Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 52.45%

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Kleenexs Analysis

hope yall like ZELDA

Kleenexs Prediction: ZELDA with 54%

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Majora's Mask is old. It's basically a '90s game. Old wins. Also because everyone else seems to think BOTW takes this, I'll take the opposite stance.

Leonhart's Vote: Breath of the Wild

Leonhart's Prediction: Majora's Mask with 53.33%

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Master Moltar posted...

as it was in the early part of the decade when the internet sorta collectively rediscovered and revisited it.

Majora's Mask 3D actually came out in 2015 and after Link Between Worlds!

Maybe that means 2015 MM was the strongest ever?

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kleenex thank u

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There may still be hope for a Skyrim/Ultimate bonus match. I managed to uncover potential evidence that we may be getting 2 bonus matches later today, based on the fact that I discovered 3 poll IDs currently exist in the database for future polls. One of them would have to be for tomorrow's regular poll, leaving the other two for bonus matches.

I'll work on a write-up for that match soon just to cover for the potential Skyrim/Ultimate bonus match.
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Were there any bonus polls for 2018?

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No, we didn't have any bonus polls for 2018.
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Didn't really need bonus polls for 2018 since we had the losers bracket.
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Well, it's just a shame so much of it was rematches

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Smash Ultimate/Skyrim just in case:

Smash is Nintendo. Skyrim is western. Nintendo wins.

Leonhart's Vote: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

Leonhart's Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate with 55.21%
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actually like botw/mm and skyrim/ssbu as interesting matches

if only i wasn't tired of writing and thinking

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yeah same

I kind of turned off my thinking cap and decided the contest was over once I finished that BOTW/Witcher 3 writeup
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Guest's Analysis - Luster Soldier

Seeing Witcher 3's performance against BotW today has set off the alarm bells for me in the potential Skyrim/Ultimate bonus match. Assuming Witcher 3 finishes exactly at 44% today, if you assume Skyrim = Ultimate and extrapolate through Witcher/Skyrim, Ultimate gets 39.42% on BotW indirectly. This looks like a somewhat believable projection given BotW's huge beatdown of Ultimate implies that it may have been worth under 40% on BotW before any SFF came into play. Even if you assume Skyrim was SFFed by Witcher and should have done better than it did, you run into a situation where Ultimate could break 40% on BotW before SFF.

The match could come down to whether the registered user bonus is in effect for the match, which would favor Ultimate over Skyrim. Since it's not officially part of the contest, Allen doesn't have to use the registered user bonus here, but it could be used just for consistency with the other matches that were part of the actual contest. I think I would still favor Smash Ultimate even without a registered user bonus, but having it in effect would make it even easier for it to win this match.

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 50.57%
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Ill take Skyrim to be consistent with my feelings on Smash sucking

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