Board 8 > * GotD 2020 Guru Contest Stats & Discussion - Part Two *

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swirIdude
04/26/20 2:43:31 PM
#51:


Gall posted...
Nier will win.

Sorry, but I picked Nier and I've gotten nearly every upset wrong so far.

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Advokaiser picked Cloud in Guru and rained on my bracket.
At least I finished 20th overall!
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ctesjbuvf
04/26/20 2:51:52 PM
#52:


Leonhart4 posted...
Of course it would be Pokemon that kills me

This is hilarious

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Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest.
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Safer_777
04/26/20 3:50:47 PM
#53:


If in the pic we have 2B doing the splits for example then Nier might win.

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So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing?
Nice job Hylian Knight 3, you were better than me in the Guru Contest!
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_SecretSquirrel
04/26/20 4:19:42 PM
#54:


Safer_777 posted...
If in the pic we have 2B doing the splits for example then Nier might win.
Well, if we can get NieR into the next round, I can try to make her as sexy as possible with whatever I can justify submitting as official art.

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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2020 Guru contest winner.
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Safer_777
04/26/20 4:23:33 PM
#55:


Oh nice. If Pokemon wins you can put a female gardevoir there right?

---
So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing?
Nice job Hylian Knight 3, you were better than me in the Guru Contest!
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_SecretSquirrel
04/26/20 4:25:53 PM
#56:


Safer_777 posted...
Oh nice. If Pokemon wins you can put a female gardevoir there right?
I ain't helping Pokemon, especially since it's going to eliminate me if it wins.

---
Agent Triple Zero at your service!
This line reserved for the true greatone, the 2020 Guru contest winner.
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Safer_777
04/26/20 4:32:55 PM
#57:


Oh okay.

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So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing?
Nice job Hylian Knight 3, you were better than me in the Guru Contest!
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Dr_Football
04/26/20 10:41:39 PM
#58:


@SuperNiceDog in case you havent been tracking, if today's results hold, you'll be 16 points back of me with us having two 8 point differences left in our brackets

RE2 vs ME2
P4G vs Xeno (i had Fire Emblem)

So if you get both of those right we tie and then are eliminated together once Persona 5 loses

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Advokaiser won the Guru. I did not.
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Advokaiser
04/26/20 10:42:12 PM
#59:


Poor ffmasterjose

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Advokaiser
04/26/20 10:48:06 PM
#60:


KamikazePotato posted...
That, and also that if I somehow won you would all be nominating my Most Recently Loved Thing That Wouldn't Normally Get In (Because It's Fodder) and none of you want The House in Fata Morgana getting an 8 seed.

I'd be okay in trying to play Fata Morgana myself!

But didn't you also traded all of your nominations in CBX to get the main character in?

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azuarc
04/26/20 10:49:59 PM
#61:


Spreadsheet culled of dead gurus. You can still find yourself in the back-up pages if you want to see how you stack up and you've been eliminated.

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VGMC13 champion: Ar Nosurge - Class::EXSPHERE_NOSURGE;
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foolm0r0n
04/26/20 10:52:42 PM
#62:


Welp there goes Nier

Now I only have 1 last dark souls horse left to win an upset
http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=126

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_foolmo_
2 + 2 = 4
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SuperNiceDog
04/26/20 10:58:09 PM
#63:


Dr_Football posted...
@SuperNiceDog in case you havent been tracking, if today's results hold, you'll be 16 points back of me with us having two 8 point differences left in our brackets

RE2 vs ME2
P4G vs Xeno (i had Fire Emblem)

So if you get both of those right we tie and then are eliminated together once Persona 5 loses

@Dr_Football ok!!! we need P5 to pull the miracle now lol

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SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs
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transcience
04/26/20 10:58:48 PM
#64:


covid-19 takes another life

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iphonesience
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charmander6000
04/26/20 10:59:38 PM
#65:


So I need Skyrim > Persona 5 in the semi-finals and RE2 > ME2 to win (or both P4G > Xenoblade and TLoU > Dark Souls).

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Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 164/184
Today's Picks: TESV: Skyrim and Pokemon HG/SS
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SuperNiceDog
04/26/20 11:00:59 PM
#66:


Is @Ngamer64 the favorite to win it all right now? It seems like it

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SuperNiceDog
04/26/20 11:01:35 PM
#67:


Kudos to everyone still alive right now, you have a great bracket if you are still alive in the Guru at this point.

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SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs
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SuperNiceDog
04/26/20 11:03:29 PM
#68:




And then there were 46 @Seginustemple is still alive

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MetalmindStats
04/26/20 11:24:12 PM
#69:


SuperNiceDog posted...
Kudos to everyone still alive right now, you have a great bracket if you are still alive in the Guru at this point.
Or some wild upset pick or combination of upset picks that's still not strictly impossible at this point, either/or. If today's results hold, there's potentially no more than a dozen Gurus who can win it all, depending on exactly which permutations of post-break results you consider safe.

---
"I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do."
You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you!
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azuarc
04/26/20 11:35:55 PM
#70:


SuperNiceDog posted...
Is @Ngamer64 the favorite to win it all right now? It seems like it

If you believe Dark Souls will beat Skyrim, then yes.

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charmander6000
04/27/20 12:05:44 AM
#71:


I think azuarc is the favourite if we go by who is currently favoured to win each match.

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Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 164/184
Today's Picks: TESV: Skyrim and Pokemon HG/SS
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KamikazePotato
04/27/20 12:24:12 AM
#72:


Props to the guy with the balls to take Final Fantasy 14 over Skyrim.

Advokaiser posted...
I'd be okay in trying to play Fata Morgana myself!

But didn't you also traded all of your nominations in CBX to get the main character in?
Each one of those trades went to a worthy cause!

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It's Reyn Time.
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ffmasterjose
04/27/20 12:38:40 AM
#73:


Advokaiser posted...
Poor ffmasterjose

Yeah as it turns out taking Pokemon to win it all was a bad idea, LOL
.
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INTERWEBUSER
04/27/20 1:09:01 AM
#74:


Does anyone know who has
1) won the most prizes (dollar value)
2) won a prize the most number of times
3) made the (end of contest) leaderboard the most number of times
across all of the best character/game contests to date?

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Trolling (v.): Posting an opinion that differs from yours
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Ringworm
04/27/20 1:30:48 AM
#75:


SuperNiceDog posted...
Kudos to everyone still alive right now, you have a great bracket if you are still alive in the Guru at this point.
Looking at my bracket, this is incorrect.

It would take a miracle for me to win this. I'm glad that I have survived this far, but I think I need both P4G and TLoU to get upset wins now in the next round to survive to the final 8. P5 > The Witcher, then Skyrim > P5 after that and I may be in with a shot, but that's very unlikely to happen.

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~ Ringworm ~
Congrats to Advokaiser - Guru champion - CBX
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Ngamer64
04/27/20 3:18:23 AM
#76:


INTERWEBUSER posted...
Does anyone know who has
1) won the most prizes (dollar value)
2) won a prize the most number of times
3) made the (end of contest) leaderboard the most number of times
across all of the best character/game contests to date?
Not sure on number one, but I'm pretty sure yoblazer is in the lead for two and three. If historical results are your thing, I recommend giving this topic a look:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78552275

The spreadsheet in there show the most successful pickers ever from this board. The first tab is by total points, but the third tab shows the average through all the years and would be best for seeing who has the most long-term accuracy.


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ZeldaTPLink
04/27/20 8:12:54 AM
#77:


My bracket continues to live despite having nier today.

The problem is that it continues to need Skyrim in the finals.
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Safer_777
04/27/20 9:21:10 AM
#78:


So either Azuarc or Ngamer if nothing crazy happens?

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So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing?
Nice job Hylian Knight 3, you were better than me in the Guru Contest!
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charmander6000
04/27/20 10:07:20 AM
#79:


Depends what you mean by nothing crazy.

While the favourite, Witcher 3 isn't a lock to make the final. Plus a lot of round 4 matches are up in the air, including SSBU/SMO which is essentially a 24-point match.

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Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 164/184
Today's Picks: TESV: Skyrim and Pokemon HG/SS
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ZeldaTPLink
04/27/20 11:25:12 AM
#80:


I've made an updated version of that table by transience. Assuming Pokemon wins today's match. I added the Dark Souls vs Skyrim semi-finals match, as well as the possibility of any of Witcher/Souls/Skyrim getting to the finals.

This assumes the rest of that bracket goes the following way:

BotW
???
???
???
Witcher
Persona
Dark Souls
Skyrim

BotW
Mario/Smash
Witcher
???

BotW
???

BotW


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LeonhartFour
04/27/20 11:27:03 AM
#81:


COVID-19 has the most permutations oh no

they all depend on Dark Souls getting to the finals though so we're probably okay

...right?
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ZeldaTPLink
04/27/20 11:29:31 AM
#82:


It seems COVID-19 wins every senario where Dark Souls getting to the finals. Testing in azuarc's simulator, the only way I found where they lose in that case is with a combination of Dark Souls > Breath of the Wild and Persona 5 > The Witcher (or Persona 5 > God of War).

Aside from that, Ngamer and gravy have the most winning scenarios. Both needs Witcher in the finals, but with different combinations in the previous 4 matches giving the win to either of them, or to other people.

If Skyrim is in the finals, transience is the most likely winner, but there are a few other possible ones.
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transience
04/27/20 11:34:44 AM
#83:


I was going to update with the same options, so thanks for saving me some time! I still like azuarc.

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xyzzy
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The Mana Sword
04/27/20 11:37:56 AM
#84:


hell yeah we've got a shot

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charmander6000
04/27/20 11:42:55 AM
#86:


To expand above...

Since we have a week break I'm going to create a series where I find the guru winners based on a certain bracket outcome. Since there are still over 32k permutations I'm going to limit things by assuming no rallying and thus assuming BotW will win the bracket (sorry non-BotW brackets). I will also assume the winner of SSBU/SMO will defeat the winner of Xenoblade/P4G. Everything else I can see at the very least a small upset chance.

I'll split things up based on the second semi-final match result (Witcher 3 > Skyrim for example) so each post will have 32 permutations (the five free moving fourth round matches). The "cookie" bracket follows the current cookie with the exception of division 4 where Xenoblade Chronicles > Persona 4 Golden is the new cookie pick.

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Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 164/184
Today's Picks: TESV: Skyrim and Pokemon HG/SS
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ZeldaTPLink
04/27/20 11:44:44 AM
#87:


If we assume Xenoblade is the heavy favorite to win Division 4 (which I personally think it is) and remove the Dark Souls in the finals scenarios, this is what it looks like:



So yeah, azuarc emerges as the favorite, followed by NG and squexa.
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paulg235
04/27/20 11:49:18 AM
#88:


What are the likeliest outcomes if Portal 2 wins over Persona 5?

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azuarc
04/27/20 11:51:05 AM
#89:


transience posted...
I still like azuarc.

Daww, thanks. You're pretty swell, too.

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CaptainOfCrush
04/27/20 11:53:23 AM
#90:


IMO, Dark Souls in the finals is at least as likely as P4G over Xenoblade at this point.

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transcience
04/27/20 11:54:45 AM
#91:


I think its about as likely as Persona 5 over Dark Souls, personally. MK8 likely beats MGS5.

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iphonesience
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charmander6000
04/27/20 11:56:10 AM
#92:


A Witcher 3 > Skyrim Semi-Final Result

If the gurus had a second chance to redo their bracket I imagine most would now have Witcher 3 winning the contest. Should Skyrim also reach the semi-final things look good for azuarc whom not only has the cookie round 4 picks, but can also win with a few single or two wrong picks. The user with the most permutations though is JONALEON1 whom wins 12/16 scenarios should TLOU defeat Dark Souls. Gravy is in a similar boat with SMO > SSBU where he has eight scenarios, but needs an additional upset to go his way to finish ahead of azuarc. The remaining six permutations are split between three users, Furious Fura is in a good position to win in this scenario as he only needs P4G to win its match while Glenn_and_Toad and Hbthebattle need P4G along with other upsets.

azuarc (6)
Cookie
RE2
SMO
Portal 2
RE2/Portal 2
SMO/Portal 2

JONALEON1 (12)
TLOU
RE2/TLOU
SMO/TLOU
P4G/TLOU
Portal 2/TLOU
RE2/SMO/TLOU
RE2/Portal 2/TLOU
SMO/P4G/TLOU
SMO/Portal 2/TLOU
P4G/Portal 2/TLOU
RE2/SMO/Portal 2/TLOU
SMO/P4G/Portal 2/TLOU

gravy (8)
RE2/SMO
SMO/P4G
RE2/SMO/P4G
RE2/SMO/Portal 2
SMO/P4G/Portal 2
RE2/SMO/P4G/Portal 2
RE2/SMO/P4G/TLOU
RE2/SMO/P4G/Portal 2/TLOU

Furious Fura (2)
P4G
P4G/Portal 2

Glenn_and_Toad (2)
RE2/P4G/TLOU
RE2/P4G/Portal 2/TLOU

Hbthebattle (2)
RE2/P4G
RE2/P4G/Portal 2

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Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 164/184
Today's Picks: TESV: Skyrim and Pokemon HG/SS
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ZeldaTPLink
04/27/20 12:09:19 PM
#93:


paulg235 posted...
What are the likeliest outcomes if Portal 2 wins over Persona 5?

I didn't make another full table, but I did some tests and basically add more victories to Ngamer64, particularly in those scenarios where RE2 wins which would cause him to be eliminated, but thanks to having Portal 2 he is back to winning.
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charmander6000
04/27/20 12:21:17 PM
#94:


A Witcher 3 > Dark Souls Semi-Final Result

Personally I would rank this as the second most likely semi-final result. Should this happen Ngamer would be looking good as he holds 24/32 permutations. One that is missing however is RE2 > ME2 which isn't a farfetched result. Should that occur squexa will win. Squexa has a few other options including a few with HGSS > Skyrim scenarios. Despite taking NieR > HGSS, preventing Ngamer from collecting points is also beneficial. After that The Mana Sword has a single way to win outright and will tie with gravy in a different scenario.

Ngamer (24)
Cookie
SMO
P4G
Portal 2
HGSS
RE2/Portal 2
SMO/P4G
SMO/Portal 2
SMO/HGSS
P4G/Portal 2
P4G/HGSS
Portal 2/HGSS
RE2/SMO/Portal 2
RE2/P4G/Portal 2
RE2/Portal 2/HGSS
SMO/P4G/Portal 2
SMO/P4G/HGSS
SMO/Portal 2/HGSS
P4G/Portal 2/HGSS
RE2/SMO/P4G/Portal 2
RE2/SMO/Portal 2/HGSS
RE2/P4G/Portal 2/HGSS
SMO/P4G/Portal 2/HGSS
RE2/SMO/P4G/Portal 2/HGSS

squexa (6)
RE2
RE2/SMO
RE2/HGSS
RE2/SMO/HGSS
RE2/P4G/HGSS
RE2/SMO/P4G/HGSS

The Mana Sword (1)
RE2/P4G

The Mana Sword/gravy (1)
RE2/SMO/P4G


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Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 164/184
Today's Picks: TESV: Skyrim and Pokemon HG/SS
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ZeldaTPLink
04/27/20 12:25:43 PM
#95:


Oh so one of my "gravy winning" scenarios was actually a "Mana Sword tied with gravy" scenario. My bad, guys.

Mana Sword is the only one with a viable tiebreaker so he's the winner here.
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charmander6000
04/27/20 12:46:06 PM
#96:


A Persona 5 > Skyrim Semi-Final Result

After Witcher 3 I feel the next favourite to reach the final is up in the air. Just going to go with a relatively simple one as only three gurus had Persona 5 reach the final. This section only has two scenarios, either a Dr_Football victory or a Dr_Football and SuperNiceDog tie. Dr_Football will win should one of RE2 > ME2 or P4G > Xenoblade happen. All other scenarios result in a tie.

Dr_Football/SuperNiceDog (8)
Cookie
SMO
GoW
TLOU
SMO/GoW
SMO/TLOU
GoW/TLOU
SMO/GoW/TLOU

Dr_Football (24)
RE2
P4G
RE2/SMO
RE2/P4G
RE2/GoW
RE2/TLOU
SMO/P4G
P4G/GoW
P4G/TLOU
RE2/SMO/P4G
RE2/SMO/GoW
RE2/SMO/TLOU
RE2/P4G/GoW
RE2/P4G/TLOU
RE2/GoW/TLOU
SMO/P4G/GoW
SMO/P4G/TLOU
P4G/GoW/TLOU
RE2/SMO/P4G/GoW
RE2/SMO/P4G/TLOU
RE2/SMO/GoW/TLOU
RE2/P4G/GoW/TLOU
SMO/P4G/GoW/TLOU
RE2/SMO/P4G/GoW/TLOU

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Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 164/184
Today's Picks: TESV: Skyrim and Pokemon HG/SS
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Dr_Football
04/27/20 12:54:47 PM
#97:


aww yeah lets go Persona

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Advokaiser won the Guru. I did not.
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charmander6000
04/27/20 12:59:52 PM
#98:


A Persona 5 > Dark Souls Semi-Final Result

Finishing up for now. Nothing changes should Dark Souls lose to Persona 5 instead of Skyrim. Dr_Football wins and ties SuperNiceDog in the same scenarios as above.

Dr_Football/SuperNiceDog (8)
Cookie
SMO
GoW
TLOU
SMO/GoW
SMO/TLOU
GoW/TLOU
SMO/GoW/TLOU

Dr_Football (24)
RE2
P4G
RE2/SMO
RE2/P4G
RE2/GoW
RE2/TLOU
SMO/P4G
P4G/GoW
P4G/TLOU
RE2/SMO/P4G
RE2/SMO/GoW
RE2/SMO/TLOU
RE2/P4G/GoW
RE2/P4G/TLOU
RE2/GoW/TLOU
SMO/P4G/GoW
SMO/P4G/TLOU
P4G/GoW/TLOU
RE2/SMO/P4G/GoW
RE2/SMO/P4G/TLOU
RE2/SMO/GoW/TLOU
RE2/P4G/GoW/TLOU
SMO/P4G/GoW/TLOU
RE2/SMO/P4G/GoW/TLOU

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Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 164/184
Today's Picks: TESV: Skyrim and Pokemon HG/SS
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Advokaiser
04/27/20 3:02:43 PM
#99:


wat do i need to win guyse

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charmander6000
04/27/20 3:25:26 PM
#100:


Advokaiser posted...
wat do i need to win guyse

I'll tell you during the next update (writing it now).

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Game of the Decade 2 - Current Score: 164/184
Today's Picks: TESV: Skyrim and Pokemon HG/SS
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azuarc
04/27/20 3:32:08 PM
#101:


Advokaiser posted...
wat do i need to win guyse

At a glance, it looks like:
ME2 > RE2
XBC > P4
TLOU > DS
Skyrim to reach finals

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