Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 253: Scot Free

(+) Yeah! (+)

Nelson_Mandela posted...

They had this message planned months in advance.

His intern copied this from reddit. That's not a strategy. Go check out the rest of his tweets and every other republican's feed to see what their actual strategy is. They literally think they are on the right side of facts and justice and are using constitutional rhetoric. Not even Trump supporters will swallow that.

But obviously Trump supporters will follow Trump no matter what, so the strength of the arguments don't matter at all. Republicans know that, so instead they are taking this opportunity to just obliterate as much of the Constitution as they can. They don't want to ignore all the illegal things Trump and others have admitted to doing to, but instead celebrate them. The Constitution is the absolute enemy in every way, and the only solution is Trump (through his 3rd and 4th terms at least). Trump supporters have been watching this happening for years and every single time they choose Trump over the United States. That is the battle that is being fought here.

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It's 20/80 on a Trump re-election. But much like a .200 hitter in baseball, it can happen.

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TheRock1525 posted...

It's 20/80 on a Trump re-election. But much like a .200 hitter in baseball, it can happen.

Is Trump the 20 or the 80?

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1207339288406503426?s=19
The quote here is the best way to explain it I've seen.

The standard that Republicans are attacking here is that impeachable Presidents should be impeached. The dream alternative is that no President is ever impeachable. No more popular check on the executive. Once they finishing using Trump to get all the people to give up their power, THEN they've won.


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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Is Trump the 20 or the 80?

The 20.

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TheRock1525 posted...

The 20.

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Trump is the 80.

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If Trump doesn't get removed from office by then he'll def win

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TheRock1525 posted...

The 20.

You...cannot be serious.

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foolm0r0n posted...

If Trump doesn't get removed from office by then he'll def win

I guess you think he's winning then, because there's a 0% chance he gets removed

TheRock1525 posted...

It's 20/80 on a Trump re-election. But much like a .200 hitter in baseball, it can happen.

This is extremely optimistic, but a lot of the reactions in this topic are also extremely pessimistic. It's pretty much a 50/50 at this point

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Meanwhile.

https://twitter.com/EdwardTHardy/status/1207307025467658240

Bernie Bro myth getting skull fucked.

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Corrik7 posted...

He literally got stomped in the popular vote, he's less popular now than when he was elected, the states he won surprisingly he's underwater in and they lost governorships in those states.

Odds are against his re-election.

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I think it's too early to try and assign percentages when we don't even know who's winning the Democratic primary it's biden =(. Though if you forced me to pick one side as more likely than the other I'd say I'd Democrats which is a testament to how unpopular Trump is because with the economic numbers today it shouldn't even be close.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

You...cannot be serious.

Almost every realistic candidate that the Dems are putting forward is a stronger candidate than Hillary, even Biden. Their net approval ratings are higher than Hillary's were.

Once again, there's more working against Trump than for him. That's why it's not a coin flip. He had a 30/70 chance of getting elected the first time and he did. He's getting worse so his odds get worse.

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Trump would definitely be an underdog if the election was a straight-up referendum on him. Unfortunately he'll be able to slime whoever gets the nom (hopefully not by enough to flip the result).

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KamikazePotato posted...

I guess you think he's winning then, because there's a 0% chance he gets removed

Not 0 at all

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

You...cannot be serious.

Trump is the incumbant president with a good economy and a hardcore legion of followers that aren't likely to break ranks no matter what he does.

I can't see Trump being anything less than like a...90% favorite to win at this point.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Trump would definitely be an underdog if the election was a straight-up referendum on him. Unfortunately he'll be able to slime whoever gets the nom (hopefully not by enough to flip the result).

His slime only works for his base, that will always support him.

What matters is how much the media slimes the Dem nominee in a desperate attempt at bipartisanship.

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xp1337 posted...

Apparently Pelosi wants the Senate to work out the rules for the trial before transmitting the articles to the Senate?

Oh yeah about this, the plan would be to avoid the senate voting to skip the trial by just not giving them the vote. The house still has control for now and they can delay it for as long as they want. I'm not sure if thats the strategy they're taking but it's definitely the best option to btfo the trumpers.

The impeachment is over now but the trial can go on real long. The Republicans need to get things over with ASAP, but they have no power to do so unless they agree to actually have a trial, which defeats the purpose of getting it done fast. It's a no-win situation.

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TheRock1525 posted...

What matters is how much the media slimes the Dem nominee in a desperate attempt at bipartisanship.

Reminder that Trump does not win without the media jumping on the 'return' of the emails story a week before election, which was released by Comey in an attempt to cover his own ass (and then was then fired by Trump, lmao)

The media is absolutely the Democratic candidate's biggest enemy, Trump is self-sabotaging and his hardcore base on its own is not that big, but the media can do an excellent job of convincing people on the fence with BUT HER EMAILS rhetoric

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Who says it is a good economy? Average worker hasn't seen a raise in 40 years. I reject the notion that this economy is "strong" for the average working class family.

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The economy is really strong!*

*For those who were already well-off four years ago

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TheRock1525 posted...

What matters is how much the media slimes the Dem nominee in a desperate attempt at bipartisanship.

It didn't matter in 2016. Hillary got a ton of votes but Trump's base got him the electoral votes and that's it. Trump's base can obv do it again.

Your fallacy is believing all the "liberals" who voted for him can be convinced elsewhere. Nationalism ain't like that.

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I literally get people to vote for Bernie while playing WoW lmao. Even the nerds know I talk mad sense about wage stagnation and how the narrative of a strong economy is mostly fictional to most people. Bernie won't let Trump go by with that narrative.


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The idea that all democarts voted to impeach Trump and all Replubicians voted against is fucking stupid
Whether someone fits to be a president or not is not supposed to be based on political stance
Neither is whether someone comitted a crime or not

I am not going to judge which party is at fault here, but one party is clearly wrong.

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foolm0r0n posted...

It didn't matter in 2016. Hillary got a ton of votes but Trump's base got him the electoral votes and that's it.

If your stance is that Trump wins because he'll receive the same amount of votes he did in 2016, then the Dem candidate wins. Whatever Dem candidate is there is going to be universally more appealing than Hillary was.


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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I literally get people to vote for Bernie while playing WoW lmao. Even the nerds know I talk mad sense about wage stagnation and how the narrative of a strong economy is mostly fictional to most people.

not a fair comparison.

wow players obviously more informed on the economy because they are at the mercy of unregulated auction house capitalism

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Who says it is a good economy? Average worker hasn't seen a raise in 40 years. I reject the notion that this economy is "strong" for the average working class family.

Trump will and the media will shrug and go "Record high stock market! 4% unemployment* guess he's right."

*Media and Trump will ignore that they're using the same numbers that Trump and the GOP decried as fake when this trend started under Obama.

Though seriously if there were a hypothetical President Kasich instead of Trump here, dude sleepwalks to like 400 Electoral Votes. Trump is just so historically unpopular he could somehow blow all the fundamentals he has in his favor here.

which is on brand for a guy who goes bankrupt with casinos

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Who says it is a good economy?

This battle was fought and settled 100 years. Yes the definition is nonsense but it's the one people follow and base their political opinions off of.

Trump did actually use your exact question as the driving force behind his populism though, and it worked a lot.

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Nanis23 posted...

The idea that all democarts voted to impeach Trump and all Replubicians voted against is fucking stupid
Whether someone fits to be a president or not is not supposed to be based on political stance
Neither is whether someone comitted a crime or not

I am not going to judge which party is at fault here, but one party is clearly wrong.

holy shit it's tulsi gabbard

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Speaking of, Gabbard's statement on her present vote was "amazing."

She states she couldn't vote no because Trump is obviously guilty of misconduct but couldn't vote yes because it's partisan.

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Gabbard's statement might legitimately be dumber than the Trump letter that was released a few days ago, which is quite the achievement

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xp1337 posted...

She states she couldn't vote no because Trump is obviously guilty of misconduct but couldn't vote yes because it's partisan.

huh

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"I'm taking this time for myself to be able to review everything that's happened, all the information that's been put forward," Gabbard said at Furman University. "And just all the factors that go into really trying to figure out what is the best action to take for our country. And for democracy. It's not a simple or easy decision to make."

"After doing my due diligence in reviewing the 658-page impeachment report, I came to the conclusion that I could not in good conscience vote either yes or no," Gabbard said in a statement from her presidential campaign after the vote.

Yes, she did her due diligence so thoroughly that she decided upon a very firm "maybe."

Get out of here, Gabbard.

"It's not a simple or easy decision to make. So I didn't make one."

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Rasmussen just put out a poll on impeachment.

It went 48-46 in favor of impeachment.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

holy shit it's tulsi gabbard

Just looked it up
Good choice
She is totally right

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StealThisSheen posted...

Yes, she did her due diligence so thoroughly that she decided upon a very firm "maybe."

Maybe the answer just lies somewhere in the middle. :^)

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Nanis23 posted...

I am not going to judge which party is at fault here, but one party is clearly wrong.

To be fair, you have to remember that Amash was a Republican and had to quit in order to vote for impeachment.

The media seems to forget that way too much when saying "no Republicans impeached!!" which is technically true, but 3 months ago it wouldn't be true.

That said, it is pretty damning that the one Republican who had the guts to impeach was not allowed in the party anymore.

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foolm0r0n posted...

To be fair, you have to remember that Amash was a Republican and had to quit in order to vote for impeachment.

The media seems to forget that way too much when saying "no Republicans impeached!!" which is technically true, but 3 months ago it wouldn't be true.

That said, it is pretty damning that the one Republican who had the guts to impeach was not allowed in the party anymore.

He absolutely should be counted as a Republican for this purpose; not doing so makes the statement "the impeachment was partisan" completely vacuous since Republicans have been defined as "those opposing Trump's impeachment"

But yeah, major props to Amash. Apparently most of the freshman Dems asked Pelosi to make him one of the impeachment managers; I'm hoping she does so.

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Hoyer spent a good minute or two praising Amash and comparing him to Hogan historically wrt Nixon as Republicans who chose to stand against their party in a moment like this in the penultimate Democratic speech before the vote so I'd imagine that's foreshadowing they would name him an impeachment manager.

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foolm0r0n posted...

This battle was fought and settled 100 years. Yes the definition is nonsense but it's the one people follow and base their political opinions off of.

Trump did actually use your exact question as the driving force behind his populism though, and it worked a lot.

I mean, the whole 'Socialism is bad and Capitalism is good' thing was said to be settled 30 years ago, I am okay with fighting old battles anew and really it is what has to be done.

xp1337 posted...

not a fair comparison.

wow players obviously more informed on the economy because they are at the mercy of unregulated auction house capitalism

Trump will and the media will shrug and go "Record high stock market! 4% unemployment* guess he's right."

*Media and Trump will ignore that they're using the same numbers that Trump and the GOP decried as fake when this trend started under Obama.

Though seriously if there were a hypothetical President Kasich instead of Trump here, dude sleepwalks to like 400 Electoral Votes. Trump is just so historically unpopular he could somehow blow all the fundamentals he has in his favor here.

which is on brand for a guy who goes bankrupt with casinos

Okay first off I find that amusing given I am an AH tycoon, but I also pay my fair share of AH cut taxes back into the system. I even give away gold sometimes to poor players. I also donate to no big super guilds.

But yeah all of the polling is basically showing if Sanders can actually, for once, get the youth vote to turn out he probably wins the primary <_<. That's really the big what if as even among 'likely voters' he is surging really hard right now.

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Trump won 2016 because 2016 was the most anti-hype election. The choices were literally Hillary vs Trump, two unlikeable candidates.

The same Trump supporters will vote for him in 2020, because they planned to in 2016. The difference?

Democrats are going to be out for blood this time. No staying at home, no protest voting, they do not want a Trump re-election. The fire has been lit under their asses.

Independents more than likely vote against Trump because Trump really only benefits the rich, and quite frankly Trump has pissed off a lot more people than endeared.

Republicans win via apathy. Things are too heated now.


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And Amash was way ahead of everyone else on impeachment to. How can you say the process was partisan when one of the main leaders was a Republican? It makes no sense.

I like a lot of Tulsi but that vote was dumb af. If Trump is obviously guilty then vote yes. If you hate partisanship then go independent, THEN vote yes, like Amash. It takes no bravery to acquit a criminal.

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Voting "Present" is no different than voting no in this scenario.

"I agree that he's guilty of crimes....but I'm going to choose to ignore them to keep the enlightened centerist meme alive"

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foolm0r0n posted...

And Amash was way ahead of everyone else on impeachment to. How can you say the process was partisan when one of the main leaders was a Republican? It makes no sense.

I like a lot of Tulsi but that vote was dumb af. If Trump is obviously guilty then vote yes. If you hate partisanship then go independent, THEN vote yes, like Amash. It takes no bravery to acquit a criminal.

Dude was a Tea Party Republican literally chased out of the party for having Conservative values.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I even give away gold sometimes to poor players

Settle down Bezos

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Trump's been President for three years and the country hasn't burned to ashes in a smoldering fire, the economy - regardless of your metrics - hasn't collapsed, and we haven't entangled ourselves in any new wars that have resulted in the deaths of thousands of young Americans. Enough of the country has been conditioned to accept this pathetically lowered standard, and because of that, he'll be tougher to beat in 2020 even if he faces a stronger opponent than Hillary. The incumbent's advantage won't simply disappear.

Speaking more specifically, I still believe this election is overwhelmingly about the Midwest, and if anything I feel Trump will be stronger there than last time. He won't be ceding WI, MI, IA, and PA so easily (and OH is red).

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If the Dems win Iowa Trump has been destroyed. I'd be more optimistic about Texas!

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OH is red. But PA almost certainly snaps back. I think MI does too. WI is the one that needs to get the side eye. IA is one of those "if Democrats are winning it they've already won" states.

As for alternate paths, you're probably looking at the Sun Belt with say AZ but that may be a reach.

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Republicans have accepted lower standards because they have to. But Trump isn't winning independents at a rate to offset Democrats natural numbers advantage over Republicans.

Michigan is absolutely going back blue. Most people there realize it was a mistake and the black vote will be stronger.

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Incidentally swinging PA and MI and keeping all else the same still results in a Trump win. Really what you need is to swing FL and one more state.

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