Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1309

(+) Yeah! (+)

Brits don't like Megaman :(
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Anyway this has been a fun conversation but I'm gonna drop off. I only have so much energy to debate stats. Way less than I have for adjusting them!

P.S. Don't listen to anything I say. I got every debatable match in this contest wrong except for Geralt and Tifa. Thank god for Europe and hentai rallies.
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.
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Lopen posted...

I honestly think the biggest benefit of Cloud in Smash is he might get a lot less anti-votes just because people will stop treating him as the enemy since he's a fun fighter in the game they like.

Let's get Master Chief in Smash next please

After Steve, I think we've seen enough from Microsoft.
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Dat Mega Man cut.

Maybe there's hope for him yet...
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It's not a cut when he's winning..
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Oh lawd, a 51 vote gain by Mega Man in one update.
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ZenOfThunder posted...

.

This wins for sure
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KamikazePotato posted...

The_Ctes posted...

What is this even based on, I surely disagree (except maybe getting the Falcon result through SFF). But hey, we'll find out.

Sephiroth got the same result on Amaterasu that Squall did back in 2013. Granted, that was back when Squall didn't suck.

70% on Wesker in a contest where Resident Evil has looked universally unimpressive is...well, unimpressive.

Pikachu also did better on Scorpion than Sephiroth did on Captain Falcon, and I probably take Scorpion there. It's definitely not an easy match to call.

Ryu is the outlier, not the norm. Frankly that result doesn't jive with a single other thing Sephiroth did this contest.

I disagree. I think Amaterasu is the outlier (and there's reason to believe Lara Croft increased, right?). Everything else lines up pretty well. Extrapolating Sephiroth from 2010 Ryu puts Sephiroth about one point above his 2013 x-stat. Extrapolating Sephiroth from 2013 Captain Falcon puts him two points above his 2013 x-stat. Sephiroth overperformed more on Captain Falcon than on Ryu. Yeah, maybe Ryu was "supposed" to have boosted from Smash, but so was Mega Man, and look how he's doing today.
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Can we get some clarification on how Tifa-rallies against Luigi may have affected Sephiroth's match against Ryu? I just want to make sure we're considering Seph/Ryu in the context of outsiders coming in to support Tifa that same day.
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Haste_2 posted...

(and there's reason to believe Lara Croft increased, right?)

Not only did she get a new game recently, she managed to defeat Metal Man on the same day he was announced to be in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. What a beast.
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I think ganondorf is SFFing link a bit.

Either way this result doesnt tell us much. Link should still double pikachu/MM
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UltimaterializerX posted...

HaRRicH posted...

Can we get some clarification on how Tifa-rallies against Luigi may have affected Sephiroth's match against Ryu? I just want to make sure we're considering Seph/Ryu in the context of outsiders coming in to support Tifa that same day.

I regret picking Mario.

Not because Mario can't win. Seph has just DESTROYED him twice.

That was elite Seph.

Mario isnt much of a joke as he use to be.
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Where are my Division 1 X-stats through Link/Ganondorf?
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And about today's match, I expected a lot of close matches in this double-elimination section of the tournament, but I was hoping this wouldn't be one of them. Come on Mega Man!
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Here I thought KKP was overrating Zero in the 2013 x-stats! I mean, Mega Man was expected to beat Zero with, what, 60% in 2010? Kudos, KKP. Looks like the MM/Zero gap has shrunk back down to 2003/2004 levels.

MMX made it up to a 400 vote lead and still lost to Tifa. If Mega Man can get past 400, he probably has this. But who knows if he'll ever make it very far past 200...

But go Pikachu! (I actually like Mega Man more... but I just want to see an upset!)
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ZenOfThunder posted...

Between this and what I think KP contributed a few weeks ago, it is great to have original .gifs brought on in a big way this contest.
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HaRRicH posted...

Can we get some clarification on how Tifa-rallies against Luigi may have affected Sephiroth's match against Ryu? I just want to make sure we're considering Seph/Ryu in the context of outsiders coming in to support Tifa that same day.

Sephiroth got 59% on Ryu if it was registered users only. That's going to be his floor since Sephiroth will do better with unregistered users. Sephiroth's official result was 60.26% so the difference is a single percentage point at best and likely a lot less.
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90% update from Link.

Might not be too late to beat the 2004 match...!

darn you anti-votes
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The only time I have ever voted for Link was during the Draven match and today because I wanted to see if he could really get 85%+ in this match.

Looks like I'll be reverting back to the anti-voting next round.
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I've voted Link over Ganondorf twice, and that would be it for his entire GameFAQs history

Against Draven I was one of those dirty Shepard voters that threw their vote away
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HaRRicH posted...

Can we get some clarification on how Tifa-rallies against Luigi may have affected Sephiroth's match against Ryu? I just want to make sure we're considering Seph/Ryu in the context of outsiders coming in to support Tifa that same day.

Tifa did get some rallies against Luigi on a couple of Final Fantasy related subreddits and I estimated that they brought in about 300 to 500 extra votes. The unusually large difference of about 5.5% between registered/anonymous users made me think the rallies did have some effect because Tifa has never shown those huge splits before. Even Sephiroth/Falcon was only about a 3.5% difference and that's with Sephiroth being weaker among registered users compared to Tifa.
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Lopen posted...

I've voted Link over Ganondorf twice, and that would be it for his entire GameFAQs history

Against Draven I was one of those dirty Shepard voters that threw their vote away

Now that you've voted for the hero, you'll start to crave the wonderful bliss of supporting him. Knowing that you voted for the objectively greatest character of all time. Knowing that 53% of the people agree with you. And 53% is everything.
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Lopen posted...

Against Draven I was one of those dirty Shepard voters that threw their vote away

Disgusting.
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snake_5036 posted...

With the way this is going for Ganondorf, is it possible he falls below 20% before the match is over? He's been giving up percent for awhile now.

okay Link slow down some, give him a little bit of mercy through the night
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NowItsAngeTime posted...

The fraud joke has been unfunny for quite a while I'd say

and nobody is more of an expert on being unfunny than hipster Ange LOLOLOLOLO

it wasn't originally intended as a joke anyway since I was dead serious and needed to drive the point home
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Lopen posted...

Against Draven I was one of those dirty Shepard voters that threw their vote away

^5

I regret nothing
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As a big fan of both Pokemon and Mega Man but still prefer MM to win, Pikachu keeping this close is the best result I could ask for
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I've been doing some fun x-stats stuff. I made estimated unadjusted x-stats for each division. There's just one rule: I have to base the 2018 x-stats on a 2013 x-stat. You will see a name, the 2018 x-stat, and the 2013 x-stat on each line. I have bolded each character where the 2013 x-stat was used as the basis for that division's 2018 x-stats. Let me know what you think and provide suggestions....

Ganondorf - 37.05% (33.58%)
Neku Sakuraba - 15.85% (20.40%)
Chun L - 30.45% (24.75%)
Spyro the Dragon - 26.70% (22.86%)
Dante - 32.31% (32.95%)
Cuphead- 18.36%
Lightning - 22.20%(23.02%)
Chloe Price - 11.46%
Vivi - 35.60% (37.98%)
Yu Narukami - 17.88%(19.58%)
Aya Brea - 17.48% (18.76%)
Victor Sullivan - 14.13%
Donkey Kong - 32.05%(26.38%)
Tidus - 27.61% (27.61%)
Leon Kennedy- 28.41%(30.69%)
Dragonborn - 17.80% (30.01%)

Pikachu - 39.97% (39.97%)
Scorpion - 26.85% (28.71%)
Kratos - 29.25% (22.02%)
John Marston - 15.69% (20.92%)
Yoshi - 36.14% (36.58%)
Shantae - 18.60%
Velvet Crowe - 21.23%
James Sunderland - 16.54%
Zero - 34.73%(36.55%)
Primrose- 17.93%
Knuckles - 30.46% (24.86%)
Zidane Tribal - 26.31% (28.72%)
Wario - 27.61% (21.70%)
Monika - 19.57%
Master Hand - 21.55%
Noctis - 18.30%

Alucard - 33.53% (28.56%)
Princess Peach - 28.97% (19.08%)
Yuna - 27.08% (27.08%)
Godot - 14.86%
Kefka - 27.20% (32.77%)
L-Block - 21.66% (36.60%)
Bomberman - 21.86% (17.56%)
Kazuma Kiryu - 17.10%
Red- 30.97%(35.52%)
Neptune - 15.29%
Sora - 30.41%(33.55%)
Ryo Hazuki - 18.81%
Big Boss - 29.62% (34.72%)
Ridley - 25.67% (26.21%)
Crash Bandicoot - 27.92% (22.86%)
Cecil Harvey - 25.59% (24.58%)

Bowser - 35.77% (35.49%)
Gordon Freeman - 16.17% (27.93%)
Charizard - 31.08%(34.22%)
Terra Branford- 29.34%(31.36%)
2B - 29.91%
Cayde-6 - 13.28%
Ness - 27.69% (27.69%)
Shadow - 25.88% (24.74%)
Kirby - 33.01% (35.60%)
Guile - 16.81%
Isaac - 19.62% (23.19%)
Estelle Bright - 13.88%
Phoenix Wright - 20.92% (27.49%)
Chris Redfield - 18.02%
Ike - 20.64% (27.86%)
Joel- 15.56%

(second half to come)
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is it just me or is Pikachu's background the only one that's actually discernible
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LeonhartFour posted...

is it just me or is Pikachu's background the only one that's actually discernible

No, I think you're right.

Link has a generic field behind him. Could be BotW, could be OoT. I couldn't tell you. Ganon just has smoke behind him, if I had to guess it's either OoT Death Mountain or OoT Ganon's Castle there but Ganon himself blocks anything that would clear that up. I don't know anything about MM but whatever it is I can't really tell. Pikachu's Pokeball is very easy to discern in comparison.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Votals are significantly down since the last match. Week long break seems to have stifled some momentum.

At this point into the match, I decided to compare these vote totals to those of our lowest voted match after the switch to a 7:00 PM EST starting time. Red/Alucard had the lowest vote totals after the November DST switch and that match had 12628 votes at 12:30 AM where as today's matches have 12025 and 12027 votes at the same point in the match. Red/Alucard finished with 28236 votes, so we're on track for less than 28000 votes. Although we could be suffering from reduced vote totals because Link/Ganondorf is an SFF match, on top of the casuals being surprised by the return of the contest.

If Mega Man holds on here and Pikachu gets past Ganondorf in the Loser bracket, we'll see a re-match of Mega Man/Pikachu that should get higher vote totals than today's matches. The higher vote totals could have implications on the possibility that Pikachu flips the match in his favor after losing the first time to Mega Man.
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Zelda - 41.00% (34.22%)
Ezio - 20.23% (25.94%)
The Boss - 24.03% (29.49%)
Metal Sonic - 20.89%
Squall Leonhart - 30.08% (37.97%)
Hat Kid - 14.51%
Garrus Vakarian - 21.64% (26.95%)
Ramza Beoulve - 21.37% (23.40%)
Aerith - 31.01% (31.01%)
Waluigi - 26.40% (23.38%)
Captain Toad - 24.81%
Shovel Knight - 23.53%
Fox - 29.33% (30.67%)
Jill Valentine - 26.93% (24.21%)
D. Va - 16.71%
Aloy - 15.73%

Auron - 33.81% (36.60%)
Lucina - 23.37% (19.85%)
Vincent Valentine - 29.89% (29.89%)
Magus - 28.76% (24.44%)
Sub-Zero - 29.27%(29.94%)
Shulk - 21.91% (18.13%)
Claire Redfield - 19.75%(20.50%)
Joker - 18.34%
Geralt- 31.68%
Rosalina - 27.87%
Simon Belmont - 30.29% (20.03%)
Ryu Hayabusa - 29.82%(26.81%)
Bayonetta - 31.13% (22.51%)
Riku- 22.16%(27.74%)
Pac-Man- 29.84%(23.41%)
Sans - 17.08%

Ryu Hayabusa might work better as the constant here.

Tifa lockheart - 38.10% (41.02%)
Geno - 20.43% (15.67%)
Mewtwo - 31.93% (34.09%)
GlaDOS - 23.96% (33.85%)
Mega Man X - 37.97% (37.97%)
Isabelle - 14.69%
Revolver Ocelot - 23.99% (28.50%)
King Dedede - 23.75%
Luigi - 37.06%(36.57%)
Miles Edgeworth - 16.70% (19.21%)
Frog - 28.44% (27.67%)
Monokuma - 13.44%
Tails- 22.50% (21.10%)
Nathan Drake - 19.47% (24.32%)
Master Chief - 20.03% (25.05%)
Goro Majima - 12.41%

Sephiroth- 40.90% (38.89%)
Albert Wesker - 24.31% (23.74%)
Captain Falcon - 28.69% (28.41%)
Richter Belmont - 22.72%
Amaterasu - 31.60% (29.35%)
Draven - 7.49% (11.08%)
Lara Croft - 28.49%(26.66%)
Metal Man - 18.30%
Ryu 32.50% (32.50%)
Lloyd Irving - 20.52% (24.67%)
Shepard - 21.74% (31.76%)
King K. Rool - 21.21%
KOS-MOS - 22.71% (24.00%)
Ellie - 20.68%
Aqua - 19.35%
Quiet - 13.89%
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anyone know how to see the match pictures once you've voted?

Says "thanks for voting" on my front page
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Pikachu looking really good in the last few updates

Mega Man lost that hour by 77 votes. It's only 6am in the UK.
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yikes that was a huge cut for Pikachu as we segue into the dead zone proper
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Would low votals be skewed toward registered users? That probably helps Pikachu if so.
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Well, the impact of registered voters lessens as the match goes along, which is probably part of the reason Pikachu has been so frontloaded this contest since he's done really well with registered voters.

of course the one time he wasn't super frontloaded was against Zero
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Pikachu is evolving into the Yellow Devil!
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Janus5k posted...

Would low votals be skewed toward registered users? That probably helps Pikachu if so.

Probably. However, we had less than 27000 votes per match for the first 2 days of the contest and those were the only matches to get over 50% registered user votes. The decrease in registered user voting after the first 2 days is from anonymous users finding out about the contest and some of them becoming regular voters.

But today's situation is different since we're resuming a contest after taking a short break. We'll have to wait and see what percentage of votes are coming from registered users in today's matches so I can compare them to matches prior to the break.
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The break was a mistake
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Big Boss - 29.62% (34.72% in 2013)

This doesn't bode well for Solid Snake =\

Also, you can see a lot of smash boosts from 2013 to now.

As the UK wakes up, Mega Man finally starts to rebuild his lead. He is up 23 votes from half an hour ago.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

As the UK wakes up, Mega Man finally starts to rebuild his lead. He is up 23 votes from half an hour ago.

You jinxed it!
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Mega Man is doing so amazingly well right now!
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I know it's to be expected, but man the beatdown Mega Man is getting in the UK is just obscene for an otherwise 50-50 match.

pikachu literally outperforming link in the uk
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Haste_2 posted...

Mega Man is doing so amazingly well right now!

Is this sarcasm?

So called N9 struggling to barely beat Pikachu.

I think we can safely say Megaman is probably the weakest N9. Well have to see how Sonic performs.

But Crono would be hitting 58+ on pikachu right now.

What would the % be if Zelda was in this poll instead of Pikachu? Thats my real worry for MM.
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