Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 117: The Midnight Hour

(+) Yeah! (+)

I guarantee he forget he ever said that.

The line he's been starting to focus test is that he never said he wanted repeal and/or replace, he always wanted to just let Obamacare run itself into the ground first to force bipartisan co-operation
---

TheRock1525 posted...

Didn't Trump say after the House failed the first time that he wanted to start on tax reform anyway? That they convinced him to start with health care?

Yes

Then he saw all of the media coverage about how he and Ryan failed bigly and his pride couldn't take moving on
---

Apparently Chris Christie got in a fight with someone at a ballpark?

Somebody else must have tried to catch his foul ball.
---

Trump has flipped between, "Repeal and replace immediately", "Repeal now and replace later", and "Let the ACA fail that way the Democrats come for a deal" for a year or more now. And I mean flipped, he's gone between them all a lot over time.

Think I saw someone put together a timeline of his positions but I forget where.
---

everytime you hear from Christie now he's either at a beach or a ballpark
---

What constitutes the ACA failing?
---

XIII_rocks posted...

What constitutes the ACA failing?

It'd have to be something Democrats agree is failure, if it's supposed to force them to make a deal.
---

100% year over year premium increases and at least one state having zero plans available to purchase through Obamacare exchanges due to all insurance companies dropping out.
---

xp1337 posted...

Trump has flipped between, "Repeal and replace immediately", "Repeal now and replace later", and "Let the ACA fail that way the Democrats come for a deal" for a year or more now. And I mean flipped, he's gone between them all a lot over time.

Think I saw someone put together a timeline of his positions but I forget where.

Oh god. I couldn't find a video, but this sounds like a treat (if liars lying are treats).
---

https://twitter.com/stealthygeek/status/891666846071566338

Assange jumps in with anti-Mueller propaganda. In yellow is the original tweet. In blue is what they deliberately left out. @20committee
---

Russia has nukes. This isn't 1943 where we need fucking microradiochemists like Seaborg to prepare micrograms of plutonium to study. They have, like, a ton already.
---

it's just mindblowing watching Assange as a stooge for the United States government with Trump. I wonder why.
---

I initially thought Trump actually had nothing to do with all the Russia stuff

But why stoop to such levels to try and desperately discredit Mueller if there's nothing to hide
---

Wikileaks lost all credibility when they released the names of gay men in Saudi Arabia. If they were truly about transparency they would go in and redact names to protect people's lives, and then just release ALL information without commentary.
---

I've slowly updated my probability of Trump himself colluding over the past 9 months or whatever from like 20% to 80%

The available information is still technically consistent with him just being a complete fucking moron with incredibly thin skin (which he is), but it keeps pushing closer and closer to just being too ridiculous when collusion is another explanation.
---

I still lean into the idea that Trump is an unknowing puppet and everyone around him is using him.

Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort are definitely in deep shit.
---

I just saw someone rant about how SJWs ruined Captain America by turning him into a Nazi just because he's a white man

And then continued to rant about SJWs to the point of getting very angry and incomprehensible

I mean like... their heart is in the right place (because getting angry over Captain Hydra is a reasonable thing to do, especially with how egotistical Nick Spencer is being about it) but their aim is waaaaay off.

Still, I'm rather amused at Nick Spencer being accused of being an SJW.

Especially since he hates them so much he made them into an awful, forced set of villains.
---

I started leaning away from "unknowing puppet" when the Donald Jr. stuff came up.

No way he didn't know about that.
---

Dancedreamer posted...

Wikileaks lost all credibility when they released the names of gay men in Saudi Arabia. If they were truly about transparency they would go in and redact names to protect people's lives, and then just release ALL information without commentary.

The fact that they use white nationalistic anti-Semitic buzzwords and (((this stupid thing))) should destroy their credibility even further.

And yet people still flock to them like they're V for Vendetta.
---

Cap became a Nazi because Nick Spencer is a hack writer who made one decent Image comic a decade ago that nobody actually finished reading, and some Electro miniseries or something.
---

LapisLazuli posted...

Cap became a Nazi because Nick Spencer is a hack writer who made one decent Image comic a decade ago that nobody actually finished reading, and some Electro miniseries or something.

He sounds like the Marvel equivalent to Ken Penders, except his art style isn't awful.

...Scratch that, comparing Spencer and Penders is an insult to Spencer.

Anyways, Spencer's up his own ass and I'm still amused that someone accused Spencer of being an SJW.
---

I'm 95% on collusion and 1632% on Obstruction of Justice
---

LordoftheMorons posted...

I've slowly updated my probability of Trump himself colluding over the past 9 months or whatever from like 20% to 80%

The available information is still technically consistent with him just being a complete fucking moron with incredibly thin skin (which he is), but it keeps pushing closer and closer to just being too ridiculous when collusion is another explanation.

It went from 0% to 60% for me
---

Jakyl25 posted...

I'm 95% on collusion and 1632% on Obstruction of Justice

What makes you think Donald Trump himself colluded?

Just curious.
---

TheRock1525 posted...

I still lean into the idea that Trump is an unknowing puppet and everyone around him is using him.

Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort are definitely in deep shit.

My pet theory on the issue is that Trump is eyeballs-deep in debt to various Russian oligarchs, and that it's something akin to a blackmail scenario, with the dirt being them calling in the loans and/or exposing the fact that he's got a lower net worth than your average American.

Mostly just because his whole fixation on his personal wealth strikes me as too obsessed for his claims on it to be legit

(this doesn't cover whether he actually did things that would qualify as collusion re:the election, but yeah)
---

Being rich is so integral to the Trump brand, that it may be a case of his net worth literally depending on what people believe his net worth to be. He sued some people who wrote some articles claiming he isn't as rich as he claims, saying that their statements damaged the value of his brand.
---

BowserCuffs posted...

LapisLazuli posted...

Cap became a Nazi because Nick Spencer is a hack writer who made one decent Image comic a decade ago that nobody actually finished reading, and some Electro miniseries or something.

He sounds like the Marvel equivalent to Ken Penders, except his art style isn't awful.

...Scratch that, comparing Spencer and Penders is an insult to Spencer.

Anyways, Spencer's up his own ass and I'm still amused that someone accused Spencer of being an SJW.

To be honest, I remember people being high on Spencer and being so disappointed when DC couldn't grab him in the New52. I look back on that and breathe a sigh of relief now.
---

TheRock1525 posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

I'm 95% on collusion and 1632% on Obstruction of Justice

What makes you think Donald Trump himself colluded?

Just curious.

I'm not Jakyl, but...I mean, generally I assume leaders aren't completely clueless on what their underlings (and especially family members working for them) are doing.

Like...was Chris Christie behind Bridgegate, or was it just a bunch of underlings who all went rogue at the same time? Of fucking course Chris Christie was involved. Can they prove that in a court of law or will people take the fall for him? Well...they didn't manage to arrest him, so no.

Trump right now, I'm like 90% that he was involved, given the emails from his own son, and all the investigators and prosecutors he's fired (obviously he's worried about something). Maybe 30% chance on them actually nailing him for that in court.

And that 30% would be lower if it was anyone else, but like there's nonzero odds him or someone in his family will just tweet the evidence if it exists.
---

I generally assume Trump was working with Russia. Not at all clear to me that anything illegal was done.
---

red sox 777 posted...

Being rich is so integral to the Trump brand, that it may be a case of his net worth literally depending on what people believe his net worth to be. He sued some people who wrote some articles claiming he isn't as rich as he claims, saying that their statements damaged the value of his brand.

It"s to the point where his net worth is whatever HE feels like it is. Old article coming up:

http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/21/news/companies/donald_trump/index.htm

Trump: My net worth fluctuates, and it goes up and down with the markets and with attitudes and with feelings, even my own feelings, but I try.

Ceresney: Let me just understand that a little. You said your net worth goes up and down based upon your own feelings?

Trump: Yes, even my own feelings, as to where the world is, where the world is going, and that can change rapidly from day to day ...

Ceresney: When you publicly state a net worth number, what do you base that number on?

Trump: I would say it's my general attitude at the time that the question may be asked. And as I say, it varies.
---

I think that's actually a very important statement that should really make people question and understand the concept of net worth. The value of stocks, real estate, business, etc. really does fluctuate wildly on a day-to-day basis.

Anyway, I'm fairly sure that on the day when he does his completes his tax returns, he feels pretty pessimistic about the state of the world and the value of his investments. Probably, he feels like he lost a lot of money!
---

Net worth DOES fluctuate.

It does not fluctuate on the feelings of the person, short of because he just spent a shitton of it on some impulse buy.
---

There's definitely collusion going on, but Trump IS ignorant/stupid enough to not be directly involved in it. I don't necessarily think that's likely, but it's a possibility.

nah, it changing based on his feelings completely makes sense because others' perception of his net worth IS part of what makes his net worth.

if he looks, acts, and feels rich, more people are drawn to him and he makes more money.
if he looks, acts, or feels lame, fewer people are drawn to him and he makes less money.

not that it explains his answer to the question very well but there's an underlying truth in it. he's largely a human ad.
---

In theory, it could. Let's say you buy a company with a very talented, loyal, employee who adds a ton of value to the company. If he feels depressed, he isn't going to be able to create products for the company and the value of the company goes down. Your net worth does down.

The analysis doesn't change if the employee is also the owner of the company. But it does require that he is actually adding a lot of value in the first place.
---

Anyway, bring on the tax cuts we were promised. No tax up to $40k income (25k at 0% rate plus 15k standard deduction). No tax up to $80k for a family. A one page form with a box that says "I win."

Pass these tax cuts, and the health insurance problem will mostly be solved because people will have the money to afford their Obamacare premiums.
---

The tax cuts aren't for POOR people, Red Sox.
---

tax cuts for poor people was one of his premises and if they did what redsox just said, so many would be thrilled.

and bear in mind, Bannon's the one who just a few days ago said he supports taxing those making over 5 million at 44%.
---

Wanglicious posted...

tax cuts for poor people was one of his premises

this might actually be the strongest indication it won't happen
---

hey now, i'm pretty sure it'd get support from the dems! and lord knows the Rs need some sort of popularism right now.
ideally that goes with the idea that all his bad stuff is killed but all the good stuff gets passed well.
---

Wanglicious posted...

hey now, i'm pretty sure it'd get support from the dems!

except for the part where the house, and the HFC in particular, will demand it be offset with massive cuts to entitlements
---

so we should have bannon's tax hike approved first is what you're saying.
---

Republicans won't pass that!
---

TheRock1525 posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

I'm 95% on collusion and 1632% on Obstruction of Justice

What makes you think Donald Trump himself colluded?

Just curious.

The casual way in which the Don Jr emails referenced "Russia and its government's support for Mr Trump" makes it clear to me that Don Jr at least was aware of the campaign working with Russia

And clearly Don Jr doesn't think that's improper considering he released the emails, so there's no reason he would have kept it secret from his father.

And then the timeline thing about Trump referencing that he expects to get damaging info on Hillary the VERY SAME WEEKEND the Don Jr meeting happened kind of seals it for me.

EDIT: For the record, I'm considering "is aware of and condones the collusion" as being indistinguishable to actually personally colluding
---

xp1337 posted...

Wanglicious posted...

hey now, i'm pretty sure it'd get support from the dems!

except for the part where the house, and the HFC in particular, will demand it be offset with massive cuts to entitlements

Not to mention cuts to literally every other government program that's not the military.
---

Republicans won't go for a tax increase on the rich. I think if some brave people suggested it, they might listen to a tax increase on the upper middle class, but probably no one is going to suggest it.

If Trump has a plan about how to pay for the tax cuts, it's probably massively increasing the national debt. The next president can deal with it, or we can declare bankruptcy later, or something. It's his normal way of doing business.

The problem is, increasing the national debt is not favored by Republicans. I thought Trump could convince them to go for it after the election (since it's something they talk a lot about but don't actually care that much about), but the problem is, he lost a lot of political capital recently with this healthcare bill debacle. You know Rand Paul will vote no on a massive increase to the national debt, and that doesn't leave much margin.

I think Democrats are about as interested in working with Trump as Republicans were interested in working with Obama. And I really don't believe there are many Democrats in Congress who genuinely care about the poor.......nearly as much as they care about the upper middle class. And increasing the national debt to cut taxes for the poor is not in the interests of the upper middle class.

Nor is it in the interests of the Democratic Party, for winning elections- you'll have A LOT of voters very happy to have an extra $5,000 in their pocket a year ($10,000/family). If they invest that and get 9% a year (long term stock market average), after 8 years, that's more than $110,000 of wealth added to a roughly median American household. The net worth of a median American household is only around $80k. Double the net worth of a median American household, and Republicans will win for a generation.

Of course it isn't free - you'll probably also double the national debt or get close to that. And who's paying for the national debt in a system where people below median don't pay taxes? That's right - the rich and upper middle class. And with Republicans in power, you know the rich will be paying less and the upper middle class paying more.
---

I just don't see how Donald isn't aware or complicit of Donald Jr., Jared, and Paul visiting aBOUT HER EMAILS.

Don't see how Ivanka is unaware and clean from this knowledge either, while we're at it.
---