Board 8 > Rigged Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1275

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yeah, I was pretty conservative on that 1997 adjustment... I just thought, how much would the removal of MK64 be, and placing SF64 down further? Oh, wait... Goldeneye was missing, too right? I will change the multiplier to 1.2. That will then require a re-adjusting of 2000, 1996, and 1990.
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I'd be interested in seeing the other Vote-In years (that didn't make the contest) included in your adjusted X-Stats. Here's a link to the 2 Vote-In polls:

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6666-
https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6667-
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The answer is still "no." I gave you the very worst result and that's all you need.
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LeonhartFour posted...

The answer is still "no." I gave you the very worst result and that's all you need.

You're not even the one doing the adjusted X-Stats, so you have no authority to speak for someone else. Haste_2 did the adjusted X-Stats.
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Including the vote-ins is pointless because (to the surprise of no one) they weren't consistent with actual contest results.
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1979 and 1983 were a bit messed up in the raw X-Stats because they were in the upper half of the bracket that had most of the bad match pictures which overrated (or underrated) the strengths of some years. So 1979 and 1983 finished lower than 1978 in the raw X-Stats.
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Can we really adjust things to be above things they lost to directly?
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So I updated the "Most Surprising Results" page on the wiki.

Not because anything from this contest made it on there, mind you. It simply hadn't been updated since the 2013 contest.

Here's the lists:

All matches:
1. Draven's title
2. Undertale's title
3. Draven reaching the finals
4. L-Block's title
5. Undertale reaching the finals
6. Draven winning Division 1
7. L-Block reaching the finals
8. Undertale reaching the semifinals
9. Squirtle winning Division 5
10. L-Block reaching the semifinals
11. Undertale winning its division
12. Super Mario RPG reaching the semifinals
13. Charizard winning his division in 2010
14. L-Block reaching the quarterfinals
15. Mewtwo reaching the quarterfinals in 2008
16. Undertale reaching the division finals
17. Red winning Division 8
18. Majora's Mask winning GotD
19. Vivi > Mario 2015
20. FFX reaching the finals of BGE2
21. Cloud's CBII title
22. Samus reaching the finals in 2013
23. Kirby reaching the semifinals in 2008
24. SMRPG winning its division
t25. L-Block reaching Round 3
t25. Melee reaching the semifinals in 2015

And for 1v1s only:
1-11. See above.
12. Undertale reaching Round 3
13. Brawl reaching the finals in GotD
14. Melee winning Division 128
15. Majora's Mask reaching the finals in GotD
16. StarCraft reaching the Division 128 finals
17. Charizard reaching the division finals in 2010
18. Brawl reaching the semifinals in GotD
19. KH2 > KH1 in GotD
20. Vincent > Squall 2005
21. Samus winning the main bracket in 2006
22. Link winning CBI
23. MGS3 winning its division in GotD
24. Sonic > Crono 2006
25. Cloud > Link in the CBII semis

And the Round 1 list:

1. Yuna turning around the 2007 results on Master Chief in 2013
2. Tales of Symphonia escaping that clusterfuck where only 3.39% separated first and fourth in 2009
3. Secret of Monkey Island coming in second in that match where SMB3 literally broke 75% in a fourway
4. Sub-Zero > Master Chief 2010
5. Crono loses to a glitch
6. Undertale
7. Urdnot Wrex over Cecil and Pit in 2013
8. (16) StarCraft over (1) Halo
9. Pokémon RSE over GTA IV in GotD
10. Game & Watch over Lee Everett and Meat Boy
11. Chrono Cross over WoW in 2015
12. TTYD over Gears of War in GotD
13. KOS-MOS over the Blizzard duo for second place behind Mega Man in 2007
14. Catherine over Neku and Vaas in 2013
15. Castlevania over Halo in the Series Contest
16. Portal over BioShock for second place behind MGS4
17. Morrowind over Warcraft III in GotD
18. L-Block
19. Blue over Fox and Wolf in 2013
20. Magus loses to a literal punching bag
21. HK-47 escapes the "Jakpack of Suck"
22. Diablo II winning the other clusterfuck of 2009 with only 5.32% between first and last place
23. Big Boss > Pac-Man for second behind Mario in 2007
24. Warcraft over GTA in the Series Contest
25. so i herd u like mudkipz

...Yep, those are lists. Common themes seem to be "not understanding how SFF works" and "overestimating Halo". (Halo was also the 2nd-place finisher in the Diablo II match). Though I find it absolutely hilarious that with how badly Warcraft has burned casuals for picking it, it's also burned them for not picking it. I guess GTA is even bigger casual bait.

Conspicuous by his absence: Draven on the R1 list, given that he seemed to be the biggest "surprise" of the three surprise champs. Just goes to show you just how awful his first-round competition really was.
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LeonhartFour posted...

I think 1997 would've broken 40% if it had actually beaten 2001.

I would be pretty surprised by that.

Yuna/Chief 2013 is the number 1 first round result? A lot of people here got the sense that Yuna was going to do that.
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Yuna > Master Chief was the guru favourite in 2013

Master Chief always has strong bracket support, he's usually up there with the noble nine.
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So LTTP won? I am surprised. I don't get it.
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Safer_777 posted...

So LTTP won? I am surprised. I don't get it.

BotW took a big chunk of the total vote, probably mainly from OoT. Also, I feel that OoT is slowly losing its stranglehold as the "defining title" of the series. More people are starting to look back on games like Majora and Wind Waker fondly and regarding those as their favorites. Plus, that was the fifth poll in six days to feature OoT front and center. Maybe some voters had just gotten tired of it.

OOT FATIGUE
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Sounds like the best way to dethrone OoT is to just have game contests nonstop until it loses.
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The last contest already showed that OoT has lost a lot of strength here. Even 1 v 1, LTTP did very well against it. People still have this perception that it's still an unstoppable godslayer but it's really not.
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https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/266-which-zelda-title-is-your-favorite

You don't even have to go quite that far back to get very "looks bad for OoT" results; CT/LttP were projected to get 45% on it in 2004.

Just like with FFVII vs. FFVI/CT, the further this site retreats back into its core old-school Nintendo and Square voting base, the worse Ocarina of Time will probably do against Link to the Past.
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pjbasis posted...

Can we really adjust things to be above things they lost to directly?

Not based on any actual data, at least not in this type of contest. Any adjustments in this contest are just guesses, and that's why I'm not bothering with them.

That, and we'll never need them anyway.
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LusterSoldier posted...

No 1v1 Zelda poll today. Instead, it's a shitty poll about Microsoft Game Pass.

I was definitely right to call it a shitty poll, since it's going to be our first ever non-GotY or non-Super Bowl poll to get under 10000 votes in a full 24 hours in over 15 years (last time it happened was on 11/27/2001).
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I went and applied a few more multipliers to years that clearly were missing/lowly placed pictures or suffered SFF. I used a multipler of 1.2 for 1997, which makes a good compromise between the disagreement over whether 1997 could have broken 40% on 1998.

And... (fine!) I've put in some x-stats for the older years from the vote-in polls... however, the linear x-stat model was used. The 70's years were extrapolated from 1979, and the 80's years were based off of 1981. I will post those tomorrow, assuming I don't forget.


1985 - 1.30
1987 - 0.85
1988 - 1.50
1989 - 1.30
1990 - 1.20
1992 - 1.10
1993 - 1.50
1996 - 1.20
1997 - 1.20
1999 - 1.40
2000 - 1.10
2003 - 1.30
2005 - 1.10
2006 - 1.20
2008 - 1.15
2014 - 1.50
2015 - 1.10

Newly Adjusted Extrapolated Standings
1998 - 50.00%
1997 - 39.16%
2001- 3.81%
1994 - 33.65%
1995 - 32.38%
1991 - 31.38%
2000- 31.01%
1992- 29.87%
1996- 28.99%
2002- 28.29%
2004- 27.80%
2006- 27.69%
1987- 26.21%
1990- 25.83%
2011- 25.56%
1999- 24.94%
2008- 24.57%
2003- 24.25%
2007- 22.73%
2005- 22.58%
1993- 21.12%
2015- 20.36%
2013- 20.35%
1985- 17.45%
2014- 17.07%
2010- 16.77%
2016- 16.17%
1981- 14.24%
2009- 13.84%
1989- 12.30%
1988- 11.73%
2012- 10.66%
1983- 7.45%
1986- 7.12%
1978- 6.53%
1979- 5.23%
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2001- 3.81%

Man, pictures mean a lot huh?


Adjusting this contest seems like a fun exercise. I had a lot of fun adjusting 2015 although it was a huge pain in the ass sometimes. 2013 was like 10x easier.
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Obviously he means 33.81.
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2013 was missing A Link Between Worlds, probably it's strongest game.
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why would you adjust 2015 above 2013?
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I love how the BYIG link on the front page, that once shared space along two Taimanin Yukikaze links at a time when the contest really could have used more promotion, is now taking more space than it really needs now that the contest is done.
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I'm glad it's still there so I can always relive my favorite Best Year in Gaming moments, such as
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Was there any advancement on the theory of each year's strength being the average of its games represented in its pics? If that was proven accurate (enough), I'd feel more comfortable with adjustments since we have values for game-strength already. If we're just guessing though...like, I don't disagree that some adjustments are appropriate, but it doesn't feel based on much.
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Anyone doing a PCA this year? Ulti?
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PCA: It sucked.
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87's the big outlier to the "average game strength" theory. It's clear it got a massive respect boost, because none of its games are particularly strong.

I'm still amazed that Earthbound of all things almost put it over 2001.
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Not necessarily, we just don't know their strength. It sucks that only SMB3 and Tetris made it to the last games contest.

The Legend of Zelda has strength and wasn't the worst anchor game. Using Tetris as a base and what it got against SMB3 in 2004 as a ceiling the range for The Legend of Zelda against Chrono Trigger is 26.28% to 34.79%.

Using what Mega Man 2 got against Tetris places the original at 23.53% against Chrono Trigger. While Mega Man 2 and 3 are often cited as the best games I doubt the original is that far off from them. Plus the series may be stronger given what Mega Man X did during the 2015 contest.

Metroid is a bit hard to calculate. If we assume the same degree of SFF between Metroid and Contra in 2009 and then calculate through Contra's performance in 2004 we get Metroid expected to get 24.03% against Chrono Trigger

Castlevania is impossible to calculate, but even taking an average for LoZ the three games combined are expected to score over 50% against Chrono Trigger according to the x-stat estimator.

There are a lot of assumptions with these numbers so take it with a grain of salt.
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foxhead84 posted...

Anyone doing a PCA this year? Ulti?

PCA: Sailor Bacon's obscene match pic choices cost BT the contest
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foxhead84 posted...

Anyone doing a PCA this year? Ulti?

Already a topic up brother.
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HaRRicH posted...

Was there any advancement on the theory of each year's strength being the average of its games represented in its pics?

the advancement was that it didn't work
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Mac Arrowny posted...

why would you adjust 2015 above 2013?

I boosted 2015 because I felt that Fallout 4 was placed too low and MGSV would have benefiited that year. The Witcher has decent strength, at least.

However, I failed to take Link Between Worlds into account for 2013.
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We need to have that all fictional character contest soon so Captain Jack Sparrow can capitalize on the new movie boost
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Can I ask something? Why there are limits in USA Internet connections? I never understood that.
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Money
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I'm pretty sure band caps are in other parts of the world too. Most of my friends have a limited cap. Once used up, their internet becomes super slow.
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Money eh? At least things here are simple. If you download all day every day you pay around 25 € per month. If you just see Facebook and Youtube and nothing else you pay around 25 € per month.
Guess we have something better than USA...
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LeonhartFour posted...

We need to have that all fictional character contest soon so Captain Jack Sparrow can capitalize on the new movie boost

Hell no, that sounds boring! We should have a "Best Civilization (not the series by Sid Meier) Ever" contest, complete with the scrolling pics of their greatest achievements. Ancient Rome vs North Korea, the Mongol Empire vs ISIS, and everybody's favorite Germany vs France. I would love to see all the funny topics and trolling.
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A GameFAQs contest on the best GameFAQs contests.
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I think it is time to have a Character battle BUT allowing ALL characters that have appeared in video games.

Bruce Willis VS Joker
Batman VS Link
Superman VS Darth Vader

Don't tell me you dont' want to see these matches!
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Not_Wylvane posted...

A GameFAQs contest on the best GameFAQs contests.

we've had enough of them to do a 16 entrant bracket so let's do it
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Not_Wylvane posted...

A GameFAQs contest on the best GameFAQs contests.

Pointless. The contest closer to 1998 will win most of the time.
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spoilers Link wins
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OrangeCrush980 posted...

Not_Wylvane posted...

A GameFAQs contest on the best GameFAQs contests.

Pointless. The contest closer to 1998 will win most of the time.

A 2002 VS 2003 final would be one of the most reasonable results. I have a few contests I prefer a bit more, maybe, but they were both top-tier. At least nothing from the '90s could win!
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What if we had mini contests for GOTY each year instead of those usual polls we get
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We've mentioned it a few times.

A 16 game contest would be fine, even if SBAllen doesn't want to do a proper nomination/predicting period it would at least be interesting.
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SwiftyDC posted...

What if we had mini contests for GOTY each year instead of those usual polls we get

Yeah, I'd like to see that happen.

I would love to see the GotY polls taken more seriously on the site. Allen does absolutely nothing to get people excited about the GotY polls because they are advertised as regular PotDs. When the GotY polls look like regular PotDs to the site visitors, they are more likely to be overlooked. This is very sad to see because the GotY polls are more interesting than most of the regular polls we get.

Turning it into a mini-contest would definitely help with that issue.
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I'd be down with unofficial GotY mini-contests with no prizes. I mean we know what this year's winner is gonna be anyway but it'll make the non-BotW matches more interesting (and it's not like the usual GotY polls would be that exciting anyway).

Just do a 16-game GotY overall poll, two matches a day if you want to breeze through it. Do rough seeding without making actual seeds. Cut a few tertiary major releases in favor of some strong-looking indies. Randomize all seeds if you must, but I imagine you could get some good matches between indies and second-tier major releases.
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