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Topic | Next contest, your entire score should be based on the final match only! |
Lopen 12/20/11 10:26:00 PM #15 |
From: iGenesis | #012 there were already two tiebreakers in place. # votes in the final match, and submission time. no need to create a 3rd that's 99% based on luck. There's no luck in picking a percentage. In fact that's what separates the people who actually know what they're doing from the people who just lurk b8 and don't pick any upsets ever.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | This is officially the worst contest ever. |
Lopen 12/20/11 10:25:00 PM #6 |
Well to be fair he happens to be right. Him giving away his points isn't the reason, though.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 10:22:00 PM #449 |
Honestly I think in a most attractive vg character contest a joke entry would win. Like Wario or some crap.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Next contest, your entire score should be based on the final match only! |
Lopen 12/20/11 10:21:00 PM #11 |
Enchanting tale, lad.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 10:20:00 PM #447 |
Eh. Attractive females would still beat Link. I mean yeah a lot of people can acknowledge that Link isn't a bad looking guy without being attracted to him, but that's not going to do anything but make him not total fodder.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 10:17:00 PM #442 |
Sephiroth should win
Link vs Cloud with Link winning again though.
Unless you let Poison in
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 10:16:00 PM #439 |
Link is actually kind of attractive so it wouldn't be the worst winner.
Seriously though with how few females we have on the site I doubt Link could win that. If nothing else this contest proved that people read polls, even if I'm not convinced they understand them.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Next contest, will SBAllen change the rules in mid-contest too? |
Lopen 12/20/11 10:10:00 PM #14 |
Sorry I just think it's funny when people kill themselves on Link > 70%. That's like the dumbest pick I've ever seen.
And as Timjab so elegantly put it, you're not on any leaderboards either. Difference is you killed yourself on picks that had literally no chance of happening vs getting a poll that was decided by less than 1% wrong.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Next contest, will SBAllen change the rules in mid-contest too? |
Lopen 12/20/11 9:58:00 PM #4 |
Hey, at least you got a chance to blow yourself to bits by making a bad pick. I gave up mid contest because I didn't think such a point gaining measure would exist!
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 9:45:00 PM #386 |
From: -LusterSoldier- | #381 Good lord, I'm surprised that there were people who got onto the leaderboard who had less than 50000 points prior to the final match. If I had done the straight pick, I could have easily been on the leaderboard. Yeah. I really wish I'd know Allen was going to do the crazy percentage challenge midcontest when I lost all my points on Dante/Vergil. Could've jumpstarted my way back into the running with a 1%.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 9:37:00 PM #375 |
Need four ways repped imhhho. I'd be a lot more interested in a 4 way character battle than a vanilla at this point.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | WWE SUICIDE LEAGUE WEEK 6- ROAD to ROYAL RUMBLE |
Lopen 12/20/11 9:35:00 PM #15 |
To the top.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Why Did They Lose? Mario vs. Bowser |
Lopen 12/20/11 9:32:00 PM #13 |
From: TheCodeisBosco | #004 It is written: "Only Jay Solano can defeat Link."
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Remove Link, Ganondorf or Zelda will take his place. |
Lopen 12/20/11 9:24:00 PM #18 | |
Topic | Who are the top 5 or 10 characters in a no-returning-characters bracket? |
Lopen 12/20/11 9:17:00 PM #13 |
From: The Mana Sword | #009 Sounds like Lopen is finally lobbying for Random Piece of FFVII Furniture after all this time. If I won guru contest this is what we'd get.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Who are the top 5 or 10 characters in a no-returning-characters bracket? |
Lopen 12/20/11 9:17:00 PM #11 |
Oh right, he was.
Well replace him with another random Pokemon/inanimate object I guess.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Who are the top 5 or 10 characters in a no-returning-characters bracket? |
Lopen 12/20/11 9:12:00 PM #7 |
Top 10 that haven't been in a contest
Dark Link Yuffie Barrett Cid Highwind Red XIII Reno Blastoise Venusaur Goomba Random Pokemon/Inanimate Object
Pretty bad set.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Who are the top 5 or 10 characters in a no-returning-characters bracket? |
Lopen 12/20/11 9:08:00 PM #6 |
S/Z Block is the one no one likes if they know what they're talking about.
Square block is a pretty cool guy
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 9:05:00 PM #305 |
It didn't happen for 14 hours, though. It happened for a few hours, then it bridged into ASV trends where Pokemon was naturally stronger. And then into the night where Pokemon was relatively weaker but still stronger than their mornings.
Don't see what's so weird about this! And I disagree with redsox that it "rarely happens." I may be wrong but I'd like stats-- I seem to remember it happening in every lead change ever that wasn't either early in the match or wasn't huge votal swing sweep through (usually during the ASV)
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Congrats to SuperNiceDog, your 2011 Guru Champion! [sig change and check in] |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:58:00 PM #31 |
You have to change your sig in the signatures section of GameFOX but otherwise it works fine.
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Congrats to SuperNiceDog, your 2011 Guru Champion! [sig change and check in] |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:57:00 PM #28 |
I thought you were supposed to like, praise the champ and/or belittle yourself!
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | Congrats to SuperNiceDog, your 2011 Guru Champion! [sig change and check in] |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:55:00 PM #24 |
Man when did the criteria for these sig changes become to just have the guy's name in it bolded. Most of these don't even make sense!
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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
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Topic | [MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot. |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:48:00 PM #71 |
Better yet ignore the dex entries completely and just use common sense. Dex entries make less sense than stats most of the time.
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:43:00 PM #279 |
Sonic mack truck'd him during the ASV
Chief doesn't usually take that crap either
But low vote intake or swing lead changes it happens all the time
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:41:00 PM #275 |
From: creativename | #274 Perhaps there's something to be said for this. Though I still find FF7 going from blowing the doors off at what should be a more or less neutral time frame, to suddenly going 50/50 the instant the lead was about to change, in a match that had the highest vote totals of the contest, which included an entrant known to be the biggest rallying force...and an entrant known to be the biggest magnet for anti-rallying...to be suspect to say the least. In terms of linearity, this match is not going to be reliable.
Again, I agree with the "suddenly going 50/50 the second the lead was about to change" sentiment but... you're going to be hard pressed to find any lead change that doesn't have this. Dante/Vergil vs Sora/Riku for instance, Dante is going 57% updates for almost two hours, then right when he hits 0 Sora stonewalls him for like an hour... Dante eventually breaks through, gets 100 up, then Sora comes back. It happens in every close match. It looks worse when it bridges into trends like the Pokemon match did, but that's just coincidence. I just think that making an adjustment there is a double standard, because yeah, unless one guy rolls over the 0 point like a mack truck during the ASV the stall always happens. Rally, stuffing, whatever, it's always there. Shouldn't affect the x-stats. Further Pokemon has always stood up very well against SFF, so the idea of Mario not SFFing it to a significant degree certainly isn't that strange.
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Topic | [MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot. |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:36:00 PM #60 |
Well, I mean, aside from "this is game mechanics and stupid" anyway.
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Topic | [MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot. |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:35:00 PM #59 |
Eh you can argue no-guard works like that cause Machamp can still hit things that are flying or underground with it.
I think the fissure argument is good enough to establish it doesn't work that way though!
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Topic | Rank these fighting games: ST, 3S, AE 2012, CvS2, SSBM |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:32:00 PM #6 |
Capcom vs SNK 2 > AE 2012 > Third Strike > SSF2: T > Melee
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Topic | [MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot. |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:30:00 PM #54 |
Yeah I was probably thinking of using it on a higher level opponent.
In any case shows things can miss!
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Topic | [BFGC] Best Fighting Game Character: Round 2 Netherrealm Divison Match 3-4 |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:19:00 PM #25 |
Robo-Ky Master Hand
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Topic | [MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot. |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:17:00 PM #49 |
Are you sure? I swear I used a gameshark to give my machamp fissure for the laughs once and missed as much as normal.
I suppose it's possible that I did this with Butterfree's Compound Eyes though.
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Topic | Yes, America does kind of "suck", to use your primitive vernacular. |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:06:00 PM #2 |
Talk more about Wade Barrett!
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Topic | NCAA Games II Overtime! #8 LTTP/#23 OoT, #1 C. Trigger/C. Cross, MUA/T. Metal 2) |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:02:00 PM #6 |
LttP Chrono Cross Twisted Metal 2
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Topic | [MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot. |
Lopen 12/20/11 8:00:00 PM #47 |
From: _Regaro_ | #044
It's the reason he was nominated <_<
No guard doesn't even work that way. I'm 90% sure you can still miss/be missed by instant death attacks like Sheer Cold while in No Guard. And if you're going to argue game mechanics I'll just... well, think about the ability we're talking about here.
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 7:57:00 PM #269 |
From: creativename | #265
There is no reason for FF7 to dominate the morning vote so thoroughly, against an entity whose morning vote should actually be better - in relative terms - than FF7's. Or at worst, they are both neutral at this time. Going from 53-54% during these two hours to 50/50 the rest of the way is waaay off from normal trends.
Pokemon's morning vote has never been all that strong, and FF7's has never been bad, largely because there's still a strong European presence at that time. FF7 gained on Link during most of the morning vote too.
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Topic | [MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot. |
Lopen 12/20/11 7:52:00 PM #43 |
That interp of no guard is stupid and it's doubly stupid that it's in the write-up
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Topic | [MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot. |
Lopen 12/20/11 7:52:00 PM #42 |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
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Topic | 0 battle bracket points for me. |
Lopen 12/20/11 7:50:00 PM #15 |
I had no doubt it'd be lower than 60%. I don't know why everyone was thinking this was going to be so high. Just looking at how much stronger Mario's been this year + Pokemon going even with FF7 should've told you that. Probably would've shot for 55-56 if I was going for a 1. If I was going for a 5 I would've went for 50-55 though.
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 5:44:00 PM #251 |
From: creativename | #249
Indeed. You are free to stop posting about the subject.
I'm just saying you're applying a double standard here. If you intend to adjust trainers based on that match, you'd better do it for every close match ever because that's what happens. It isn't done because it's "who cares" territory and it's never exactly definitive.
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 5:32:00 PM #241 |
From: red sox 777 | #234 Even at the half-way point in the match, it looked like Trainers/Cloud would fall just short of 60000 votes. Instead, Trainers/Cloud goes on to 63000 votes. That might give you an idea on the number of rallied votes in the match, but not all of them are for the Trainers. I'm sure Cloud got rallied votes as well.
So, for those 3000 extra votes, let's put a guess at 2500 for Trainers and 500 for C/S, giving us a net gain of 2000 for Pokemon. Seems about as reasonable as anything else. And even using this very generous approximation Cloud vs Seph only wins with 51.3%. I think a more realistic would be 2000:1000 but yeah. Point is this is bordering "who cares" territory. It's nowhere near 54% as I believe CN said earlier.
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 5:29:00 PM #235 |
I bet you there was a good amount of rallying in Vincent/Crono. Vincent vs Squall too.
Basically the reason FF7 hasn't rallied in the past is it very rarely needs to.
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 5:26:00 PM #231 |
From: Team Rocket Elite | #228 It's an SFF match. It doesn't necessarily mean you misjudged the characters strength. It could mean you misjudged the amount of SFF. My Oracle is way out because I misjudged the amount of SFF. If the final wasn't a SFF match, I probably would have gone with exactly what the third place match would call for a result or something very close to it. Yeah but then it raises the question of why you'd expect Link to SFF Mario more here when the strength of the two entrants is pretty likely closer here than it was in 2002. I kinda thought that 55-60 should be the favored percentage in this match by a lot. I think the only reason it wasn't is because people look too hard at previous stats.
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 5:22:00 PM #225 |
From: creativename | #219 But anyone who thinks that the Trainers had static strength across those two matches is clearly mistaken because the Trainers got a lot of rallied votes in the FF7 match they didn't get in the MvB match, so why do you say I'm being stubborn by having that stance? Having the obvious, common sense stance isn't being "stubborn".
Again, entrants strength can and does vary from match to match. Like L-Block. That's blatantly what happened with the Trainers here. That stance is reasonable. Having that stance is not being "stubborn". And again, you're massively overrating the rallied votes. That match does not turn into a 54-46 without rallied votes. It's probably like 50.50-49.50. In which case it falls so close that you're hitting the territory that all matches that close hit. Without close match rallying from bracket people Dante probably beats Sora, but I'm not going to argue that you adjust Dante up.
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 5:18:00 PM #217 |
Looking at your Oracle percentage for this match, you basically just used Mario vs Link from 2002 as your prediction for this match.
To me that screams out that you didn't "get" that Mario was stronger in this format so obviously you're going to fight adjusting him up significantly every step of the way.
So what I'm saying is you're trying too hard to make this contest line up with previous contests, not realizing it is in fact a different format.
(No, don't look at my Oracle prediction, I put Mario vs Bowser trying to hype an upset)
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 5:10:00 PM #206 |
I mean hell while we're at it can we adjust Dante up a fraction of a percent? Because Sora unnaturally stalled him for like 2 hours in the dead hours/morning vote. And can we adjust Sora up against Squall in the same fashion?
Sweet now we have Dante > Squall. Just as planned.
In a close match there's always unnatural stalling for the eventual winner. That's just how it works. Making an exception this time is just stubbornly not wanting Cloud < Trainers in the stats.
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Topic | ^King of the Mountain^ - Save My Mage/Wizard - Day #13 |
Lopen 12/20/11 5:07:00 PM #62 |
Erk Lute
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 5:05:00 PM #203 |
Mario vs Bowser beat Cloud vs Sephiroth with like... I don't know, 55.14% or something. A small enough difference that it's fairly irrelevant. Because with no rallying Cloud vs Seph probably only beat Trainers with like 50.50%. A lot of the Cloud/Seph slowing down was a result of trend shifting into the ASV rather than rallying.
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 5:03:00 PM #200 |
Well obviously this is for the use of generations to come. What will they do when they haven't seen this contest and its next iteration comes up? They'll be pulling their hair out!
Obviously
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 5:01:00 PM #195 |
So basically what that last post says to me is that creativename is the one that "doesn't get it" despite constantly mudslinging other people for not getting it.
We're not saying that leaving Mario at his result here is the thing that shouldn't be adjusted. We're saying that Cloud vs Trainers shouldn't be adjusted and to make Mario accurate you adjust him based on his numbers vs Trainers through Cloud.
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Topic | Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041 |
Lopen 12/20/11 4:56:00 PM #188 |
From: creativename | #182 ...um. But that's the same thing. What we're trying to do is estimate the SFF level. You really aren't getting this for some reason. I'm saying the difference in Cloud vs Trainers is so little off from what it "should be" that you have a really good estimate of SFF just by assuming Trainers = Cloud. So what I'm saying is you arguing that Cloud should actually be at like 54% on Trainers is stupid.
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