Lurker > Lopen

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TopicNext contest, your entire score should be based on the final match only!
Lopen
12/20/11 10:26:00 PM
#15

From: iGenesis | #012
there were already two tiebreakers in place. # votes in the final match, and submission time. no need to create a 3rd that's 99% based on luck.


There's no luck in picking a percentage. In fact that's what separates the people who actually know what they're doing from the people who just lurk b8 and don't pick any upsets ever.

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TopicThis is officially the worst contest ever.
Lopen
12/20/11 10:25:00 PM
#6
Well to be fair he happens to be right. Him giving away his points isn't the reason, though.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 10:22:00 PM
#449
Honestly I think in a most attractive vg character contest a joke entry would win. Like Wario or some crap.

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TopicNext contest, your entire score should be based on the final match only!
Lopen
12/20/11 10:21:00 PM
#11
Enchanting tale, lad.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 10:20:00 PM
#447
Eh. Attractive females would still beat Link. I mean yeah a lot of people can acknowledge that Link isn't a bad looking guy without being attracted to him, but that's not going to do anything but make him not total fodder.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 10:17:00 PM
#442
Sephiroth should win

Link vs Cloud with Link winning again though.

Unless you let Poison in

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 10:16:00 PM
#439
Link is actually kind of attractive so it wouldn't be the worst winner.

Seriously though with how few females we have on the site I doubt Link could win that. If nothing else this contest proved that people read polls, even if I'm not convinced they understand them.

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TopicNext contest, will SBAllen change the rules in mid-contest too?
Lopen
12/20/11 10:10:00 PM
#14
Sorry I just think it's funny when people kill themselves on Link > 70%. That's like the dumbest pick I've ever seen.

And as Timjab so elegantly put it, you're not on any leaderboards either. Difference is you killed yourself on picks that had literally no chance of happening vs getting a poll that was decided by less than 1% wrong.

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TopicNext contest, will SBAllen change the rules in mid-contest too?
Lopen
12/20/11 9:58:00 PM
#4
Hey, at least you got a chance to blow yourself to bits by making a bad pick. I gave up mid contest because I didn't think such a point gaining measure would exist!

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 9:45:00 PM
#386

From: -LusterSoldier- | #381
Good lord, I'm surprised that there were people who got onto the leaderboard who had less than 50000 points prior to the final match. If I had done the straight pick, I could have easily been on the leaderboard.


Yeah. I really wish I'd know Allen was going to do the crazy percentage challenge midcontest when I lost all my points on Dante/Vergil. Could've jumpstarted my way back into the running with a 1%.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 9:37:00 PM
#375
Need four ways repped imhhho. I'd be a lot more interested in a 4 way character battle than a vanilla at this point.

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TopicWWE SUICIDE LEAGUE WEEK 6- ROAD to ROYAL RUMBLE
Lopen
12/20/11 9:35:00 PM
#15
To the top.

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TopicWhy Did They Lose? Mario vs. Bowser
Lopen
12/20/11 9:32:00 PM
#13

From: TheCodeisBosco | #004
It is written: "Only Jay Solano can defeat Link."



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TopicRemove Link, Ganondorf or Zelda will take his place.
Lopen
12/20/11 9:24:00 PM
#18

From: ExThaNemesis | #009
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2019

sup bro.

looked like Ganon got SAW'd


XD

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TopicWho are the top 5 or 10 characters in a no-returning-characters bracket?
Lopen
12/20/11 9:17:00 PM
#13

From: The Mana Sword | #009
Sounds like Lopen is finally lobbying for Random Piece of FFVII Furniture after all this time.


If I won guru contest this is what we'd get.

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TopicWho are the top 5 or 10 characters in a no-returning-characters bracket?
Lopen
12/20/11 9:17:00 PM
#11
Oh right, he was.

Well replace him with another random Pokemon/inanimate object I guess.

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TopicWho are the top 5 or 10 characters in a no-returning-characters bracket?
Lopen
12/20/11 9:12:00 PM
#7
Top 10 that haven't been in a contest

Dark Link
Yuffie
Barrett
Cid Highwind
Red XIII
Reno
Blastoise
Venusaur
Goomba
Random Pokemon/Inanimate Object

Pretty bad set.

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TopicWho are the top 5 or 10 characters in a no-returning-characters bracket?
Lopen
12/20/11 9:08:00 PM
#6
S/Z Block is the one no one likes if they know what they're talking about.

Square block is a pretty cool guy

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 9:05:00 PM
#305
It didn't happen for 14 hours, though. It happened for a few hours, then it bridged into ASV trends where Pokemon was naturally stronger. And then into the night where Pokemon was relatively weaker but still stronger than their mornings.

Don't see what's so weird about this! And I disagree with redsox that it "rarely happens." I may be wrong but I'd like stats-- I seem to remember it happening in every lead change ever that wasn't either early in the match or wasn't huge votal swing sweep through (usually during the ASV)

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I tried to have a fierce rivalry with SuperNiceDog, but he made me look worse than a GameFAQs Contest!
TopicCongrats to SuperNiceDog, your 2011 Guru Champion! [sig change and check in]
Lopen
12/20/11 8:58:00 PM
#31
You have to change your sig in the signatures section of GameFOX but otherwise it works fine.

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TopicCongrats to SuperNiceDog, your 2011 Guru Champion! [sig change and check in]
Lopen
12/20/11 8:57:00 PM
#28
I thought you were supposed to like, praise the champ and/or belittle yourself!

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TopicCongrats to SuperNiceDog, your 2011 Guru Champion! [sig change and check in]
Lopen
12/20/11 8:55:00 PM
#24
Man when did the criteria for these sig changes become to just have the guy's name in it bolded. Most of these don't even make sense!

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Topic[MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot.
Lopen
12/20/11 8:48:00 PM
#71
Better yet ignore the dex entries completely and just use common sense. Dex entries make less sense than stats most of the time.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 8:43:00 PM
#279
Sonic mack truck'd him during the ASV

Chief doesn't usually take that crap either

But low vote intake or swing lead changes it happens all the time

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 8:41:00 PM
#275

From: creativename | #274
Perhaps there's something to be said for this. Though I still find FF7 going from blowing the doors off at what should be a more or less neutral time frame, to suddenly going 50/50 the instant the lead was about to change, in a match that had the highest vote totals of the contest, which included an entrant known to be the biggest rallying force...and an entrant known to be the biggest magnet for anti-rallying...to be suspect to say the least. In terms of linearity, this match is not going to be reliable.


Again, I agree with the "suddenly going 50/50 the second the lead was about to change" sentiment but... you're going to be hard pressed to find any lead change that doesn't have this. Dante/Vergil vs Sora/Riku for instance, Dante is going 57% updates for almost two hours, then right when he hits 0 Sora stonewalls him for like an hour... Dante eventually breaks through, gets 100 up, then Sora comes back.

It happens in every close match. It looks worse when it bridges into trends like the Pokemon match did, but that's just coincidence. I just think that making an adjustment there is a double standard, because yeah, unless one guy rolls over the 0 point like a mack truck during the ASV the stall always happens. Rally, stuffing, whatever, it's always there. Shouldn't affect the x-stats.

Further Pokemon has always stood up very well against SFF, so the idea of Mario not SFFing it to a significant degree certainly isn't that strange.

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Topic[MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot.
Lopen
12/20/11 8:36:00 PM
#60
Well, I mean, aside from "this is game mechanics and stupid" anyway.

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Topic[MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot.
Lopen
12/20/11 8:35:00 PM
#59
Eh you can argue no-guard works like that cause Machamp can still hit things that are flying or underground with it.

I think the fissure argument is good enough to establish it doesn't work that way though!

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TopicRank these fighting games: ST, 3S, AE 2012, CvS2, SSBM
Lopen
12/20/11 8:32:00 PM
#6
Capcom vs SNK 2 > AE 2012 > Third Strike > SSF2: T > Melee

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Topic[MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot.
Lopen
12/20/11 8:30:00 PM
#54
Yeah I was probably thinking of using it on a higher level opponent.

In any case shows things can miss!

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Topic[BFGC] Best Fighting Game Character: Round 2 Netherrealm Divison Match 3-4
Lopen
12/20/11 8:19:00 PM
#25
Robo-Ky
Master Hand

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Topic[MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot.
Lopen
12/20/11 8:17:00 PM
#49
Are you sure? I swear I used a gameshark to give my machamp fissure for the laughs once and missed as much as normal.

I suppose it's possible that I did this with Butterfree's Compound Eyes though.

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TopicYes, America does kind of "suck", to use your primitive vernacular.
Lopen
12/20/11 8:06:00 PM
#2
Talk more about Wade Barrett!

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TopicNCAA Games II Overtime! #8 LTTP/#23 OoT, #1 C. Trigger/C. Cross, MUA/T. Metal 2)
Lopen
12/20/11 8:02:00 PM
#6
LttP
Chrono Cross
Twisted Metal 2

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Topic[MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot.
Lopen
12/20/11 8:00:00 PM
#47

From: _Regaro_ | #044

It's the reason he was nominated <_<


No guard doesn't even work that way. I'm 90% sure you can still miss/be missed by instant death attacks like Sheer Cold while in No Guard.

And if you're going to argue game mechanics I'll just... well, think about the ability we're talking about here.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 7:57:00 PM
#269

From: creativename | #265

There is no reason for FF7 to dominate the morning vote so thoroughly, against an entity whose morning vote should actually be better - in relative terms - than FF7's. Or at worst, they are both neutral at this time. Going from 53-54% during these two hours to 50/50 the rest of the way is waaay off from normal trends.


Pokemon's morning vote has never been all that strong, and FF7's has never been bad, largely because there's still a strong European presence at that time. FF7 gained on Link during most of the morning vote too.

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Topic[MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot.
Lopen
12/20/11 7:52:00 PM
#43
That interp of no guard is stupid and it's doubly stupid that it's in the write-up

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Topic[MPFC] Most Powerful Fictional Character Bullets meet Fists! Machamp vs. Ocelot.
Lopen
12/20/11 7:52:00 PM
#42
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Topic0 battle bracket points for me.
Lopen
12/20/11 7:50:00 PM
#15
I had no doubt it'd be lower than 60%. I don't know why everyone was thinking this was going to be so high. Just looking at how much stronger Mario's been this year + Pokemon going even with FF7 should've told you that. Probably would've shot for 55-56 if I was going for a 1. If I was going for a 5 I would've went for 50-55 though.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 5:44:00 PM
#251

From: creativename | #249

Indeed. You are free to stop posting about the subject.


I'm just saying you're applying a double standard here. If you intend to adjust trainers based on that match, you'd better do it for every close match ever because that's what happens. It isn't done because it's "who cares" territory and it's never exactly definitive.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 5:32:00 PM
#241

From: red sox 777 | #234
Even at the half-way point in the match, it looked like Trainers/Cloud would fall just short of 60000 votes. Instead, Trainers/Cloud goes on to 63000 votes. That might give you an idea on the number of rallied votes in the match, but not all of them are for the Trainers. I'm sure Cloud got rallied votes as well.

So, for those 3000 extra votes, let's put a guess at 2500 for Trainers and 500 for C/S, giving us a net gain of 2000 for Pokemon. Seems about as reasonable as anything else.


And even using this very generous approximation Cloud vs Seph only wins with 51.3%. I think a more realistic would be 2000:1000 but yeah.

Point is this is bordering "who cares" territory. It's nowhere near 54% as I believe CN said earlier.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 5:29:00 PM
#235
I bet you there was a good amount of rallying in Vincent/Crono. Vincent vs Squall too.

Basically the reason FF7 hasn't rallied in the past is it very rarely needs to.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 5:26:00 PM
#231

From: Team Rocket Elite | #228
It's an SFF match. It doesn't necessarily mean you misjudged the characters strength. It could mean you misjudged the amount of SFF. My Oracle is way out because I misjudged the amount of SFF. If the final wasn't a SFF match, I probably would have gone with exactly what the third place match would call for a result or something very close to it.


Yeah but then it raises the question of why you'd expect Link to SFF Mario more here when the strength of the two entrants is pretty likely closer here than it was in 2002.

I kinda thought that 55-60 should be the favored percentage in this match by a lot. I think the only reason it wasn't is because people look too hard at previous stats.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 5:22:00 PM
#225

From: creativename | #219
But anyone who thinks that the Trainers had static strength across those two matches is clearly mistaken because the Trainers got a lot of rallied votes in the FF7 match they didn't get in the MvB match, so why do you say I'm being stubborn by having that stance? Having the obvious, common sense stance isn't being "stubborn".

Again, entrants strength can and does vary from match to match. Like L-Block. That's blatantly what happened with the Trainers here. That stance is reasonable. Having that stance is not being "stubborn".


And again, you're massively overrating the rallied votes.

That match does not turn into a 54-46 without rallied votes. It's probably like 50.50-49.50. In which case it falls so close that you're hitting the territory that all matches that close hit. Without close match rallying from bracket people Dante probably beats Sora, but I'm not going to argue that you adjust Dante up.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 5:18:00 PM
#217
Looking at your Oracle percentage for this match, you basically just used Mario vs Link from 2002 as your prediction for this match.

To me that screams out that you didn't "get" that Mario was stronger in this format so obviously you're going to fight adjusting him up significantly every step of the way.

So what I'm saying is you're trying too hard to make this contest line up with previous contests, not realizing it is in fact a different format.

(No, don't look at my Oracle prediction, I put Mario vs Bowser trying to hype an upset)

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 5:10:00 PM
#206
I mean hell while we're at it can we adjust Dante up a fraction of a percent? Because Sora unnaturally stalled him for like 2 hours in the dead hours/morning vote. And can we adjust Sora up against Squall in the same fashion?

Sweet now we have Dante > Squall. Just as planned.

In a close match there's always unnatural stalling for the eventual winner. That's just how it works. Making an exception this time is just stubbornly not wanting Cloud < Trainers in the stats.

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Topic^King of the Mountain^ - Save My Mage/Wizard - Day #13
Lopen
12/20/11 5:07:00 PM
#62
Erk
Lute

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 5:05:00 PM
#203
Mario vs Bowser beat Cloud vs Sephiroth with like... I don't know, 55.14% or something. A small enough difference that it's fairly irrelevant. Because with no rallying Cloud vs Seph probably only beat Trainers with like 50.50%. A lot of the Cloud/Seph slowing down was a result of trend shifting into the ASV rather than rallying.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 5:03:00 PM
#200
Well obviously this is for the use of generations to come. What will they do when they haven't seen this contest and its next iteration comes up? They'll be pulling their hair out!

Obviously

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 5:01:00 PM
#195
So basically what that last post says to me is that creativename is the one that "doesn't get it" despite constantly mudslinging other people for not getting it.

We're not saying that leaving Mario at his result here is the thing that shouldn't be adjusted. We're saying that Cloud vs Trainers shouldn't be adjusted and to make Mario accurate you adjust him based on his numbers vs Trainers through Cloud.

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TopicContest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
Lopen
12/20/11 4:56:00 PM
#188

From: creativename | #182
...um. But that's the same thing. What we're trying to do is estimate the SFF level. You really aren't getting this for some reason.


I'm saying the difference in Cloud vs Trainers is so little off from what it "should be" that you have a really good estimate of SFF just by assuming Trainers = Cloud. So what I'm saying is you arguing that Cloud should actually be at like 54% on Trainers is stupid.

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