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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/05/21 1:11:31 PM
#307
I actually really like it long term but I feel like it's going to be a rocky ride for the next few weeks and that I should be able to maximize gains by buying calls/puts instead of actually buying the stock. I mean I could see it being $80 tomorrow morning, and while having stock then for +50% gains would be nice why not buy a call for 500% gains instead.

Maybe once it cools down a bit I'll actually buy some.

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TopicFinal Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 49: 17 Gilgameshs! How many can you beat?
Lopen
01/05/21 12:41:27 PM
#466
Last 3 tickets went

3/11 Meia Arcane (dupe), Warrior of Light Arcane, Sarah Awakening
2/11 Mog Awakening (dupe), Mog Stat Break LMR
1/11 Zell Glint+

Pretty good stuff aside from the Zell ticket

Also used the two tickets from the missions on FF2

1/11 Emperor Burst Dupe
4/11 Gordon Glint, Josef Arcane, Leila LMR, Leila Glint+

Second one was nice at least

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/05/21 12:32:27 PM
#305
Have this strange feeling QuantumScape was oversold yesterday and is going to bounce back huge

I have an $83 call that expires next Friday. Used one of my FUBO call sells on it. Let's see if I can multiply this puppy.

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/05/21 10:19:00 AM
#302
See really should have waited to sell those FUBO calls till market open. Could have made more money

But not buying these contracts back I'm cool with making 500 bucks

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TopicPhoenix-verse TEW mod Topic 2: first we need to talk about parallel universes
Lopen
01/05/21 1:17:28 AM
#337
So I think the AI will tend to bulk up their roster with writtens if they can, but also leave the guys they have on PPA unless there's a reason to upgrade them and also use those guys to consider their roster cap preference and release the PPA guys first

So like for instance if a company favors a roster of around 50 people and they start the game with 10 writtens and 35 PPA they'll fill the extra spots they want with writtens but won't necessarily upgrade their PPAs to written until their contract is up or a rival company guns for their guy

Again I'm not sure I haven't really played enough to be sure but this seems like the behavior I've noticed

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TopicDo you have a mostly positive or negative opinion of Ultron?
Lopen
01/04/21 9:24:30 PM
#3
Negative but I am pretty sure that's because the MCU bungled him by overdoing the humor aspect more than the character concept being bad

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TopicFinal Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 49: 17 Gilgameshs! How many can you beat?
Lopen
01/04/21 9:19:07 PM
#463
1/11 Auron Glint+

The least wanted relic on the banner including dupes, this is the way the game says "hey stop that"

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TopicFinal Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 49: 17 Gilgameshs! How many can you beat?
Lopen
01/04/21 9:00:56 PM
#462
Whiskey_Nick posted...
oh god the new missions wants us to actually master all the magicites again to get stuff, its not giving credit for old mastery -.-

So if you just complete the magicite it'll give you the credit for mastering it, if you'd already mastered it. Still sucks but not quite as bad. You can suicide in and knock off 10% to get credit.

In unrelated news of me drawing on weird banners I did 2 draws + 100 gem on this fire banner and got

1/11 Balthier Awakening
2/11 Genesis Sync, Auron Sync

100 Gem Vincent Limit Break

I still kinda want the Balthier Chain, and Genesis Glint+ and Genesis Limit Break, but the two syncs were my most wanted on the banner so I dunno. Might draw one more time if only because I wouldn't mind getting dupes of any of the items I already have.

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TopicPhoenix-verse TEW mod Topic 2: first we need to talk about parallel universes
Lopen
01/04/21 7:09:13 PM
#335
Now if you want a "proper" idea of how to fix this that isn't general and has some specific guidelines in mind maybe look at the Cornellverse or some other mod that has a lot of national/regional feds where they don't all croak after 10 years. But I really do think the problem is at the company level and not the worker level here.

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TopicPhoenix-verse TEW mod Topic 2: first we need to talk about parallel universes
Lopen
01/04/21 7:02:22 PM
#334
So I don't think worker stats have a ton of influence on whether companies go out of business, particularly when they're all understatted.

It's probably an issue of starting funds, owner spending/roster tendencies, starting show schedules, starting rosters and contract types, and how many TV deals are available to be grabbed and how lucrative they are. Like show quality lets feds grow but it going up in size doesn't actually make a company profitable-- you get higher passive administration costs and stuff. In fact the easiest size to keep afloat at is Cult imo since you can sign guys to writtens and avoid company wars and the passive costs are lower. BUT if you get kicked down to Cult when you've got a bunch of national level contracts and a TV deal that requires national due to a company war it gets really hard. If you're staying at National with those same things not as much.

I don't know enough about how all these things play to really know what the answer is. I just know actual show quality in terms of game mechanics is most relevant in company wars, and all that is relative. If all the workers are graded harshly then all the shows are going to be playing with the same handicap

So my guess is the companies in wars probably have too large of roster size preferences and too many starting workers on written contracts, and perhaps not enough starting funds. You may also consider having companies start with TV deals that they're "overqualified" for so they don't immediately lose their TV deals when they get knocked down to Cult. Also maybe companies with "unfriendly" products should have more starting income so they can survive with lower ad revenue. Maybe lower the number of writtens companies have in general so when they get kicked down they can release guys without eating a huge contract cost? I don't know.

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TopicSeries where you've played multiple games, but aren't a fan of?
Lopen
01/04/21 5:37:56 PM
#19
The Legend of Zelda is a series where I've played most of the games (played all of them up through the Wii), enjoy some of the games (basically anything from the SNES back), but wouldn't really call myself a fan of the series as a whole.

Pokemon too to a lesser extent. I'd consider myself a fan of the DS games, like DPP and HG/SS, but not really anything else. The other games have too much fluff I don't care for or not enough substance

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/04/21 2:11:29 PM
#300
As I understand it they're all 100 share clumps unless you had a split take place while the option was held.

But yeah I'm fairly new to doing this too I'm just explaining things I've thought of/read as I go. You'll have to feel out what works best for you.

But yeah you need to find the right stock. Needs to be one you trust and one where the options go at a high premium. Also needs to be cheap enough where you can plausibly buy hundreds of shares of the stock. For me that stock is FUBO for now (I'm doing it on TRVN as well but the premium is relatively much lower), but I've got a few others in mind if FUBO stabilizes or tanks. I think this strategy is where diversifying will really pay off, but I can't resist going harder on FUBO than the other ones I'm looking at at the moment (FSR looks tasty)

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/04/21 1:34:35 PM
#297
Yup. You'd make $160 in that case and have no risk of actually losing your shares by default. You could then sell a call for a bit over a week out (or just tomorrow, though there won't be a lot of time value for that contract) at a higher strike that you again don't expect the stock to reach to get easy money.

The problem is when your stock moons and you don't get to reap or your stock plummets and you no longer profit by selling calls at a profit and you just have to sit on your stock like the old days. But the former case you're still profiting and the latter if you properly valued your stock you should be okay sitting on it for a while. You could also sell calls that would have you selling the stock at a loss with the cost of the contract but I think that's probably the path to losing money with this. You can always wait till the stock goes up and sell your contracts again then. The only reason I'm selling FUBO calls now is I'm using the proceeds to buy more FUBO while it's still down-- if you have no immediate use for the money waiting might be prudent.

Now if you really want to make yourself "moon proof" you could also buy a really long expiry call that's slightly out of the money. For instance I could buy a $30 call on FUBO that expires at EOY with 1000 dollars right now-- I can make that in less than a month of selling calls on the two hundred shares I have. That means if my $28 and $29 weekly FUBO calls get cashed in due to the stock going absolutely nuts, I'll still have 100 shares in my pocket that I can buy at a reasonable price.

And if it doesn't go absolutely nuts, I can always just buy the shares back. No need for a contract if my shares get bought at $29 when the price is $29.25. Just buy the shares back with the $2900 I got form my contract cashing out.

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/04/21 1:13:42 PM
#295
Warrants are basically just dumbed down options as I understand it, as the Strike and Expiry are priced in. Robinhood doesn't support them so I don't really care to look into if there's any nuance beyond that.

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/04/21 1:04:45 PM
#293
Yeah. I think the odds of you holding your sold contract that was in the money before contract expiration through expiration day would be exceedingly low because of that reason

Now the other cool thing is if you sell a call/put that moves a ton and it hasn't been exercised you can always buy it back to make the difference, and then you can sell it again too using your same shares as collateral.

For instance if I dunno FUBO ends Thursday at $27 I may buy the contract back if I've made money on it (time decay will remove a lot of the price on the contract even if the price moves up), just to remove the risk of having my shares taken for minimum value on Friday. I can then sell a higher priced call that expires Friday to get some of my money back. There are a lot of things you can do. The only thing I would say with this strategy is to never buy your contract back if it's at a higher price than you sold it for. Just always keep in mind that if it exercises you made money-- don't get greedy and buy your contract back at a $100 loss because it surged up and it wasn't exercised yet.

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/04/21 12:42:45 PM
#288
CoolCly posted...
Do you expect the call to be exercised immediately upon hitting the strike price, or does it usually not happen until the price is a bit higher to be more "in the money"? I see that a lot of calls being sold are at or below the current price....

I wouldn't expect immediately. I've had sold calls/puts not be exercised until day of expiry despite being "in the money" well before then. I can't really tell you a hard and fast rule just that I wouldn't generally expect immediately.

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/04/21 12:38:58 PM
#287
CoolCly posted...
If I just own the 100 shares to begin with, am I just able to sell the covered call directly with the shares I have?

Yes

CoolCly posted...
I'm assuming you think that because this is the price it was at before it's December run?

Pretty much. It moved up above the 20s on no news just hype, and down and no news. Fair value right now is in the $20 to $30 range imo. It's highly volatile because of its relatively low market cap. I guess you could be afraid they might do another offering but eh. Stock has a lot of buy ratings from analysts and a growing subscriber base/sports betting being built into the platform. It's a growth stock but it's a growth stock on the bottom.

CoolCly posted...
If I'm understanding the theory right, it seems that the primary benefit is when I'm just holding something like AMD for the long term, but don't think it's going to rise in the next few weeks, I can sell a call for a few dollars more than current price and expect the shares not to sell and to keep the premium, and worst case my shares just sell at a gain from the current price, and I harvest the gain I've already made holding AMD till now anyways.

That's one way. Or you can do it with a highly volatile stock like this one, only go slightly out of the money, and just get a quick short term gain because the contracts are expensive. Heck if you have minimal faith in the stock you can just sell the contract at very close to the market value and while you won't make any money from the stock you pocket the more expensive contract. I ideally want to hold it and think it's going to rebound fairly quickly so I'm shooting a bit higher than the current price in hopes that it expires out of the money so I get free contracts.

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/04/21 12:31:21 PM
#285
So here's what selling a covered call means
  • Someone can buy your shares at the price you pick at any time before the call expires
  • Generally this will only happen if the stock price goes above that number. Why would someone buy your shares for $28 when you can buy them off the market for less.
So if you sell the call for a price that's higher than your cost basis this poses no real risk to you unless you don't want to sell for a small profit because your stock might moon or you want the dividend or lower tax rates or whatever.

Me I'm completely fine with getting "only" 10% return on my 200 FUBO shares by the end of the week. And if I don't those contracts were free and I can sell them again next week.

Now if the stock price goes so low that I can't sell calls that still net me a profit there becomes a form of risk but I feel more pressure on my $28 calls being cashed out than I do

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/04/21 12:15:09 PM
#282
It's true! It's scary seeing the -$700 even if I've made half of that back by selling profitable call contracts

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/04/21 11:56:59 AM
#280
You buy FUBO at $25 right now

You sell the right for someone to buy your shares by the end of the week at for $26 which gains you about $150.

If it drops more you keep your $150 and shares as no one will want to buy it at $26. If it goes up, well you still make $100 as well as the $150 contract fee. Of course it could go up to like $35 and you lose a lot of potential gains but a win is a win.

I guess the only real risk is if it keeps dropping a LOT and you don't have the willpower to see it through. I think we're really close to the bottom here though.

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/04/21 11:51:18 AM
#276
Buy 100 shares of FUBO sell a call for it that's more expensive than its current price that expires at the end of the week

Enjoy your free money

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
01/04/21 11:43:38 AM
#273
I bought back in on FUBO. The $50+ it was going for a week ago was outrageous but it's worth it at this price

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TopicDo you like this character? Day 1271: Rick Sanchez (Rick and Morty)
Lopen
01/03/21 11:46:43 PM
#43
No

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TopicFinal Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 49: 17 Gilgameshs! How many can you beat?
Lopen
12/31/20 9:58:43 PM
#439
Did 3 draws

4/11
Yuffie Sync
Ashe Sync
Yuffie Chain
Rinoa Chain

3/11
Yuffie Limit Break
Yuffie Chain (dupe)
Ashe Glint+ (dupe)

3/11
Vanille Sync
Yuffie Ultrax2

Considering I was not drawing for Orran and wanted every relic I got quite a bit (dupes and Yuffie ultra excepted-- though even that ultra should be decent for earth support) this is a HUGE success

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TopicYour First Thought 184: "2020."
Lopen
12/31/20 7:33:27 PM
#50
Covid

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TopicDo you like this character? Day 1269: King Kong (King Kong)
Lopen
12/30/20 11:56:45 PM
#19
Yeah

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TopicYour First Thought 183: "Chess piece."
Lopen
12/30/20 6:11:23 PM
#49
Rook

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TopicFinal Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 49: 17 Gilgameshs! How many can you beat?
Lopen
12/30/20 4:45:18 PM
#435
Ticket 1
Bartz Earth Awakening (this awakening actually seems pretty awesome on a wind team with Faris combined with his Sync which I have)
Balthier Quickcast USB

Ticket 2
Ayame Glint+ (might be useful if I ever get good stuff for her I did use Ayame back when her BSB was viable offense)
Mog Proshellga USB (will never use but +10 MND on a healer I use a lot is nice)
Umaro Glint

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TopicYour First Thought 182: "America."
Lopen
12/28/20 5:50:26 PM
#37
LeonhartFour posted...
'MURICA


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TopicFinal Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 49: 17 Gilgameshs! How many can you beat?
Lopen
12/28/20 5:30:10 PM
#418
Some draw updates

RoP was mostly wretched. I got (bad) dupes on all but

Josef Awakening, Aria Awakening, Xexat Awakening, Tidus dupe Awakening (dupe but nice to level up), Ashe Glint+

Now I did quite like the Aria Awakening my #1 wanted item in realm and the other stuff makes it I guess marginally worth the 85 mythril I suppose but it was not great.

Also went 1/11 Lightning Dupe Awakening on the Awakening lucky.

I did however 100 Gem Rikku Awakening and Rude Arcane recently and I got a great set from the Yuna Dress Record Banner + 2 draws on her banner

2/11 Tidus Limit Break, Yuna Awakening2
3/11 Yuna Sync, Tidus Limit Glint, Yuna Ultra
4/11 Yuna Awakening1, Jecht Awakening, Tidus Awakening Dupe, Jecht Ultra

So I'm okay with bad fest stuff lately

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TopicWas 2020 the worst year of your life?
Lopen
12/28/20 2:15:43 PM
#34
My mom died from Pancreatic Cancer and all the covid crap

I'm still not sure though. My mom had been unhappy for a long time and at least Pancreatic Cancer is relatively quick at doing its work and there was a lot of good here too. I think I've had worse years in my 20s. 2011 almost feels like a year I spent actively sabotaging myself. I'm still dealing with poor life decisions made then to this day

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TopicDo you like this character? Day 1266: Marv Murchins (Home Alone)
Lopen
12/23/20 5:05:42 PM
#22
No

Would vote yes to the other guy

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TopicYour First Thought 178: "Christmas food."
Lopen
12/23/20 12:37:25 AM
#51
Fruitcake

Which gets a bad rap a good fruitcake is delicious

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TopicWhat do you consider to be the most revolutionary video game ever?
Lopen
12/23/20 12:35:53 AM
#56
Kung Fu and Galaga were tearing it up at the dome before Super Mario Bros

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TopicWhat do you consider to be the most revolutionary video game ever?
Lopen
12/22/20 7:09:34 PM
#42
UltimaterializerX posted...
A lot of those crossovers (and I'm sorry for this) were still considered "real and legitimate fighters worthy of the name of fighting game". Smash 64 came along and there was this huge paradigm shift.

You know you're revolutionary when you're the disrupter and the established order hates you

If you're going that route you're actually arguing for Melee I'd say. Smash 64 tourneys never really got big enough to register for fighting game elitists.

I don't really think causing "u mad" in a fairly small section of gamers is enough to be thought of in this discussion though

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TopicWhat do you consider to be the most revolutionary video game ever?
Lopen
12/22/20 6:02:40 PM
#35
Actually agree Super Smash Bros is at least worth considering. But you had X-Mem vs Street Fighter sorta giving proof of concept to crossover fighters being worth thinking about so it does diminish it somewhat

I mean I guess the weird damage system and sheer scale would count for something but I'd say having character crossovers in a fighter counts for the meat and Capcom had been doing that for a while now

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TopicWhat do you consider to be the most revolutionary video game ever?
Lopen
12/22/20 5:14:46 PM
#29
A lot of games have done everything melee has done and then some because it shouldn't even be in this discussion

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
12/22/20 4:48:01 PM
#219
StartTheMachine posted...
Where you standing on ATHX these days @Lopen ? I haven't kept up at all, but I just might go through with that plan to throw AVCT profits that way in the coming weeks.

ATHX just had some enrollment news which has given it positive momentum after stagnating for months.

I expect a minor spike of some sort in January from Healios news. I've had a stack of $2 calls I bought way back in September (stupid of me, I could have 3x the stack size if I'd held off longer since I didn't expect them to really start moving till November) how big is anyone's guess but I definitely see them as being higher by the end of January than they are now. Now is a decent time to buy in I'd say especially since it dipped today-- get out by end of January unless the news is REALLY good. But yeah good news could come any day now and January was always the ETA

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
12/22/20 3:36:17 PM
#208
I have calls for 1/15/21 and 2/19/21 at $15 which should give you an idea of how quickly I expect this one to move. But War would be the one to ask.

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
12/22/20 3:16:01 PM
#206
You will make 5k easy with big five if you hold till $14

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
12/22/20 1:20:58 PM
#191
Sometimes stocks go up multiple days in a row. I don't see a reason it's going to dip other than generic profit taking. Safest play is probably to get in ASAP and not worry too much if it dips to $9, just hold until earnings or the run up before earnings (which seems to be February 23?)

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
12/22/20 1:11:29 PM
#186
I think Big Five will make a run to $15+ by next earnings. No real DD needed just look their past two earnings and combine that with their low market cap and yeah people gonna wanna get in on this

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TopicStock Topic 13
Lopen
12/22/20 12:27:21 PM
#181
War did. BIGV up BIGT(oday)

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TopicWho does Rudolph go down in history with?
Lopen
12/21/20 6:51:04 PM
#125
Sounds awesome. Much better than doing the Charlie Brown schtick dude's makin that cash now

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TopicWho does Rudolph go down in history with?
Lopen
12/21/20 4:30:00 PM
#122
HanOfTheNekos posted...
Oh, also, if you're wondering how this information ISN'T useless -

I've had to compose music for preschool-Kindergarten children, one school of which had a majority student base of ESL students. Understanding the study of folk song rhythms and intervals makes it so that one can write music that is more developmentally appropriate for students of that age.

Which may actually make you lose sight of the simplicity of this topic because composing something that's easy to sing isn't exactly the same as changing the lyrics of something and still making it sound close enough to the same.

Like there's a big difference between songs composed for children and "what kids will throw into a song for lols"

Like I consider rudolph the red nosed reindeer a "folk song" but I don't consider the adds at the end to follow those rules, particularly spinoffs of the original. They generally end up following those rules because that sounds natural but if you've got a bunch of kids who want to say "like Robin Hood" instead of George Washington they'll find a way and it'll because that stuff is somewhat intuitive for enough kids that the rest where it's not will copy

If it's far enough off it'll be rejected but I think in terms of "working" it's George Washington >= Columbus/The Flintstones > Lincoln > Hitler > Charlie Brown > Trump (I'd put the work line between Lincoln and Hitler because the hard t is harder to draw out) and while syllables are relevant they're not the only factor there and it shouldn't be a hard "different syllables" = can't work or that all three syllables kinda work because Columbus kinda does. Depends on the words, sounds within and how easy it is to draw em out. I'm sure you can drop the jargon here and I can't as I haven't studied this in depth, but I don't need to have that amount of depth to know what I can and can't make "sound right" just from some basic music knowledge and vocal experience and just listening to music (in particular listening to the same song in different languages is enlightening for stuff like this cause a lot of the time they want to keep the meaning the same and you can't do that with the same amount of syllables so they end up drawing certain sounds out with varying results)

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TopicWho does Rudolph go down in history with?
Lopen
12/21/20 3:50:13 PM
#119
My main point was about Columbus anyway. Corrie already said they had a whole set of wacky lyrics

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TopicWho does Rudolph go down in history with?
Lopen
12/21/20 3:38:39 PM
#116
But I'm not extrapolating further. This is case for case and not a hard rule. I wouldn't say Trump works. I actually would say Charlie Brown works less well than Lincoln too despite it having one more syllable because I can't figure out how to draw things out/add pauses on that one

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TopicWho does Rudolph go down in history with?
Lopen
12/21/20 3:29:22 PM
#112
I mean I wouldn't but I could absolutely see kids doing it I'd they liked Lincoln or something. It flows by 5 year old standards.

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TopicWho does Rudolph go down in history with?
Lopen
12/21/20 3:24:44 PM
#110
I'd draw out the Lin part, brief pause, say coln as normal.

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TopicWho does Rudolph go down in history with?
Lopen
12/21/20 3:21:12 PM
#108
And if you didn't treat me as though I didn't know syllables and rhythm are linked I wouldn't have said you were dumbing things down-- I didn't say that you, host of classical music mafia, didn't know better, just that you were oversimplifying. I just saw a lot of people going 2 2 2 4 4 4 and it's like "does it really matter to that level?"

Like obviously it's relevant but you could leave all lines in the Washington variant the same and replace with Lincoln or Columbus and make it flow fairly well if you draw certain parts out. I mean properly trained child choral warriors would not but yeah...


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