Lurker > Lopen

UltimaterializerX posted...

Ulti doesnt play this way as town. He just claimed scum

Ulti doesn't play this way as TOWN VANILLA

You giving red a free pass when you're a vanilla?

Nah.

If Ulti flips scum

You guys gotta have me solid and lynch Kirby

Give me a chance to solo the scum team

Chaeix posted...

Can you remind me what this way is here

Extremely self preservative to the point where he's encouraging lurkers to lurk

Hey Lea

Remember what I said

The only way Ulti plays this game this way is if he's a power role and to murder him if he claims vanilla

Ulti just claimed scum

Ulti you should claim

Corrik you date Mzero I'll date Isquen

Ok so now we need to get Ulti lynched to have a chance at our perfect game

UltimaterializerX posted...

I think Dumey scanned Kirby innocent.

So you think Dumey is cop and you see that Kirby is gf on the scumboard then

My flowchart is now

Kirby
->
Ulti

Then go from there.

Really just two scum could have existed in that madness. Kirby is the only one that had to be scum.

SirChris posted...

*looks at the scum corpse*

Man we suck at throwing

Right?

This is performance.

I know Kirby doesn't actually think I'm bad at the game

He's cracking

Maybe the team is just Ulti + Kirby and I've betrayed Lea wrongly

Why isn't Ulti pushing hard for a Kirby lynch today

Guy was hell murder on him yesterday

I've presented solid logic that points to him being scum of "let's assume that Peaf did not spontaneously go insane" and Ulti isn't biting. Why.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Lopen, if Lea gets killed today and flips scum, you can kill me tomorrow and use me for whatever bait you want. Deal?

Why not Kirby first

Kirby openly shading my play is the dawn of the first day of Kirby scum play

UltimaterializerX posted...

If Lea and Lopen are both claiming they scan guilty, kill both of them. Thats how you end the bs miller meta nonsense

Ok maybe I just want to kill Ulti for blatantly not reading the game

Red here is what I'm saying

Busy scum Peaf deciding to involve himself in lynch commentary when he was paired with town with town getting lynched makes no sense. It makes negative sense.

Ergo lynch Kirby because he's probably scum.

We don't need to go further than that

Here's my game flowchart

Lynch Kirby
If town
Clear Lea Dumey JC

If scum
Lynch Lea, Dumey, JC in that order

After either condition finishes you begin playing the game

UltimaterializerX posted...

I will prevent Dumey or Justin dying personally if I have to. Look elsewhere.

I think it's Kirby Lea Peaf and would only want to explore those if Kirby flips scum and Lea flips town

I think we lynch Kirby for the most solving material

If he flips town we can go through traditional methods because even if Lea or JC or Dumey were scum it was completely unnecessary at that point and so the Peaf insanity defense works.

If he's scum it's likely they were involved in a broad sweeping manipulation to try and save him

I really do think what happened was this

Peaf says "oh no poor Kirby" to get people wanting to save him
Lea says "if you wanna gamble you win some lose some it's all the same to me" to get people wanting to be crazy and of course she must show unpair to really drive this home

Those two in concert would encourage FD and Lopen to break up with the endgame being one of the two pairing with Kirby.

JC screwed up the plan by having the ace of spades

If the scumteam is you Peaf and Kirby what you did was a heroic rescue mission gone awry more than a bus

I never called you a busser

Lea: Let's see...I broke up, JC broke up and dated Kirby, you broke up, Dumey broke up with a really weird line about how Peaf had no reason to break up but here's the command, Sultan adorably tries and fails to join in, peaf breaks up and tries to date Kirby, Dumey tries to date me, I try to date Kirby, FD breaks up and dates Kirby, we date, Kirby dates FD, Dumey tries to get me again before settling for JC

Lea: You want to know the hilarious secret joke of today?

Lopen: Sure! Secret jokes are the best jokes

Lopen: Ok so yeah FD breaking up suddenly did throw in the wrench

Lea: I'm miller, didn't claim it because fuck the miller role, was playing so lazily and crappily I was almost guaranteed to be scanned before getting Peaf vulnerable then lynched

Lopen: I'm miller too

Lea: Yeah - FD stole Kirby's heart, and that left me and you (hostile to Peaf), JC (my minion) and Dumey (they'd look prettttty silly getting back together after all that)

Lea: Hilarious if true

Lopen: Yeah. Not true unfortunately. Would be cool

This was the conversation. Total nonsequitur to mention it. Very early in the chat. 30 minutes in when we were still talking about the end of train lynch.

I didn't immediately suspect it at the time because to me a miller makes sense in the setup over gf for a scanner foil but yeah.

I never ever ever want to lynch Lea before Kirby though.

I don't even understand what the point of telling me you were miller was

Chaeix posted...

it's an availability bias

No it's not

It's an extremely simple premise

If Peaf is tied with town, and town is on the chopping block, why does he not just go unavailable. That's literally my entire argument.

You can't answer that without saying TEH GAMBITZ HE WANTED TO CLEAR HIMSELF which makes no sense. It's a ton of risk by someone who shouldn't really want to put more effort than minimum into the game for an unclear gain

I didn't want to say it right off, because I was still thinking about possibilities at that point

Which is why Lea saying "OH NO MY PRECIOUS LOPEN HAS BETRAYED ME~" didn't feel right-- I intentionally withheld that until I was fully committed because I knew the topic would not like it. The fact that I had not revealed that should have been a sign I did still trust her and was just sorting stuff.

ALSO

Just for full disclosure

Lea randomly claimed miller to me for no real reason. She tried to kinda like, finesse it into the discussion as a "ha ha check it out I'm miller but didn't claim it in topic look how cool I am"

But man the more I'm going down this path the worse that looks...

Also of interest

Lea followed my logic on "why would Peaf do this" perfectly and led me along the path of suspecting Dumey

Kirby was never proposed as a suspect which is weird because the more I explore this line this is the natural path

Kirby x Lea x Peaf just feels right to me

Everything kinda lines up that way. Peaf playing to our sympathy, Lea playing towards our hype, both subtly manipulating the town towards helping Kirby out

My only problem with that is why doesn't JC just get left with Lea and Kirby and JC is murdered? This feels easy to just let be. Unless Kirby was thinking pairing with Lea would make him look strange when JC had an open invite out?

Unless Peaf hadn't actually realized that JC and Lea had broken up at that point? He did say he didn't realize JC was trying to date Kirby-- could he have missed that as well?

I dunno. Kirby and Lea on a scumteam profiles as just the type of crazy one that would do something like this too.

I didn't say it was a gambit

I'm saying a busy scum player feels no compulsion to act if both paired with town and town is the one set to die

A busy scum player goes to work and lives to fight another day

If you want my guess it's that the play was to try to get me and FD to jump in first and isolate one of us that's why Peaf was woe is me about Kirby from the sidelines.

JCxLea breaking first messed with the calculations probably.

In any case the point is if Kirby is town and Dumey is town Peaf just afks. I can't imagine it not going down that way.

I think if it's just you and Peaf as scum Peaf feels no compulsion to jump in because the writing on the wall was Kirby pairs with Lea and JC dies

Someone from Dumey Lea JC is as necessary to make the play make sense as you are

Kirby321 posted...

Honestly, there's so many mental gymnastics you'd have to justify for saying anyone but me was scum in that last bit couple shuffling

I agree that's why we execute you today

You wanna follow the hot hand, he has spoken

You know Peaf, Dumey

You tell me if he thinks that it's worth the risk to make all that stink at end of day if Kirby is just town and he's tied to town.

Because this is a far cry from "not casting a tiebreaker vote." This is an insane gambit that puts all risk for possibly no reward. You'd expect it out of me or Lea, not Peaf.

The play there I think is Lea pairs with Kirby and JC and Peaf pair off as "team spurned lovers"

Once Kurt Angle got added to the mix I think the chaos just undid plans and Peaf was busy so they couldn't redo them

It can be three if it can be two. There is actually better reason to do it with 3 than 2 because you clear multiple scum if the narrative we are attempting to be fed is believed

You arbitrarily saying well two, sure, but three is based off of literally nothing.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

But Kirby wasn't drafting a message to pair up with JC or Dumey, he was drafting a message to pair with Lea.

I could buy Kirby Peaf Lea being it.

Chaeix posted...

Lopen baby if I were scum I would have just stayed shacked up with my girl Lea

The chain is

You attempt to save Kirby
Plan is aborted because killing Lea seems terrible
Peaf decides to play the shell game

Ultimately you need to have some reason for scum peaf to care to unpair. He doesn't just kill himself

That's why Kirby is probably scum. Figuring out the other scum is tricky but it's probably you Dumey or Lea

Lea is unkillable and wouldn't need Peaf to play hero

Like Peaf was putting EFFORT into a game where he was fairly passive and said he had things he needed to do

As scum. With "town" on the chopping block and being locked in a relationship with "town"

It makes zero sense. It's probably not Dumey and JC. It could be Dumey or JC and Kirby

EDumey posted...

Peaf was lone scum doing something dumb for town cred

Peaf was BUSY

I don't feel like it makes any sense with the amount of activity Peaf had and what he claimed (and why lie) was happening. It's so easy to just peace out if you have no vested interest in the result.

It probably is just Kirby

UltimaterializerX posted...

Red already explained why JC/Dumey/Peaf cannot be a trio with 2+ scum in it.

Can you walk it by me.

Kirby321 posted...

Then why would JC agree to be the first pair to split? Putting himself at risk when there was no guarantee that anyone else would follow is just as illogical as Peaf splitting from Dumey

He and Peaf would be on a scumboard at this point. Who knows what the scum would be scheming.

I mean no matter what Peaf's actions in an all town situation make zero sense. I think you need to assume scum exists there be it in Dumey Kirby or JC

Here's the mindset

Kirby JC Lea (Lea is dating Kirby probably and JC dies-- this is when Peaf jumped off)
Kirby JC Lea Dumey Peaf (now JC can take the Peaf life vest and Dumey or Kirby die)

Then you threw Kurt Angle into the mix when FD and I broke up and the chaos ate Peaf

Let's kill JC

Also I think if the pool is Kirby JC Lea

JC almost certainly dies

If you look at the pool at that point the play is Peaf is playing to save JC

Big thing that weirded me out about JC is he claimed vanilla like right away when he broke up

Almost like he wanted to get that claim out of the way when it was less sus

JC is also an option if you want Spice

FD and me don't enter the calculation as we weren't in the pool when he broke off
Lea doesn't either because Lea is never at any real risk

The hot hand thinks we just purge Dumey and/or Kirby

We go back to the old Razor and the only way Peaf breaking from Dumey makes sense is if other scum were involved at a critical point in the transaction

If it's town Kirby and town Dumey Peaf just... goes to work, like he said he was.

It makes no sense otherwise.

This is my official stance on the day. I think seeing Lea continue with Dumey reinvigorated me.

Oh you're still on that one. Yeah I dunno

I think C can be done without being informed (I felt the same way) and B was basically what you and Peaf did so it feels odd for you to call out on it.

And I still don't feel A had a lot of weight in terms of Sultan's actual gameplan. He said it wasn't a joke post but I do feel like him feeling compelled to post was a joke phase like energy

I just think there should be more at this stage. All your pings are very early game stuff aside from the Mzero reaction test (which is imo NAI-- Sultan does that kinda stuff as either alignment)

I think if I had the gun I'd kill Red atm.

But a lot of day left.

Like Dumey was the main thing I was out for because I'm basically the only person saying Dumey isn't towncleared