Lurker > TsunamiXXVIII

I say Geralt. Yes, he was in a weak half-division, but he still managed to win it, and even though most people on this site would only know him because of video games, his success still weakens the case for "characters originating in other media wouldn't do well here". And if that means we get a mega-contest next time with lots of characters from other media as well, I'm fine with that. (Of course, knowing Allen, it'll still be the same size as usual and then our contest stalwarts will be in danger of missing contests. Though honestly, do people still bother nominating the Noble Nine anymore or are they just grandfathered in? I know Board 8 is usually too busy with their rallies to bother with many contest veterans, and iirc this year we had an inordinate amount of control over the bracket because of the difference in time that nominations were available to us.)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

xp1337 posted...

If you think about it, this is actually the end of Disc 1 for this contest.

bryans7 posted...

Geralt lost to Auron because he tried reading Kingdom Hearts lore before the battle and his head exploded.

---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Mewtwo
Captain Falcon
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Edgeworth
Amaterasu
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

11 points in Division 6.

Sans > Auron finale, which was probably fairly iffy to begin with since you really don't take a rally entrant that far if you don't want to take them all the way...but I messed up so many R1 matches in that division that the 8 points for Auron winning the division is all that I really "regret" not getting.

If I had picked Auron, it would've been 15 in both Division 3 and Division 7. Division 3 I was 15/16 in the first two rounds and then just picked both R3 matches wrong; Division 7 I had Luigi > Mewtwo for a final and also a really stupid Chief > Tails pick that I still can't understand why I took.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Oh, "perfect divisions" was added to this topic after I'd left it.

Division 5 was my only perfect. I'm seeing a lot of people say they nailed Division 8? ...Actually that's not too surprising; if I'd been aware that KOS-MOS had had a new game recently, I probably could've gotten that one perfect (though I still made another error that I regret far more). Came pretty close on the first two divisions, though.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Also, I voted 1. Division 5 was the only one I got perfect. Only one match wrong in Divisions 1 and 2; Noctis-Hand in R1 in the latter and Leon-DK in R2 in the former.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I wasn't sure how high to go up to; I figured including all options up to 8 would invite joke votes.

Also, fun fact: You cannot put the number 0 as a poll option. It just gets deleted.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Honestly, though, the basic premise of this topic is false.

Match 91 picks in Guru, broken down beyond just who was picked to win:

Tifa > Mewtwo: 101 (63.125%)
Mewtwo > Tifa: 45 (28.125%)
Tifa > GLaDOS: 11 (6.875%)
Mewtwo > Geno: 2 (1.25%)
GLaDOS > Geno: 1 (0.625%)

Third digit included to prevent rounding errors, since the number of Gurus this year is a very round 160.

But in summary, 70% of all Gurus had Tifa winning, and 69.18% of Gurus who had both Tifa and Mewtwo winning in Round 1.

That said, the Mewtwo supporters had greater faith in his ability to defeat X.

MMX > Tifa: 59
Tifa > MMX: 53
Mewtwo > MMX: 28
MMX > Mewtwo: 19
MMX > GLaDOS: 1

Yes, MMX was a unanimous pick to win his fourpack. Add it all up and you'll see 79 for MMX, 81 against--which means that the only character with a "retention rate" above 50% in that match was Mewtwo. (Though because MMX was favored in the cookie matchup, I'd still call him the favorite. It's not like that FFVII/RBY/SM64 situation in 2015, where it was clear that the winner of RBY/SM64 was a slight favorite over FFVII, but because RBY/SM64 was itself so debated, FFVII ended up as the cookie pick.)
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

We've seen Tifa vs. Sephiroth before. 3 times, actually.

Seph won all three times, but not nearly as convincingly as his two matches with Vincent.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Lopen posted...

I'll vote for the hotter pic when I'm not super invested in the winner

This extends to beautiful men like Sephiroth and Dante as well, however

This.

Though it's not necessarily TJF. On the rarer occasions we get TAF (or should that be DAF?), though...
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

5; 6 if Luigi pulls it off. Missed Alucard, of course, and also got RallyFEAR on Division 6 (and expected the top half of the division to be weak enough for Sans' natural strength to carry him long enough to build up a bandwagon).
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Nope, sorry.

jcgamer107 posted...

Indiana can fuck right off. Several late or dirty hits, took out Chase Winovich and Braylon Edwards' younger brother. It's like they knew they couldn't win so they were just trying to take out as many of our players for the Ohio St game as they could.

If Texas A&M/UAB goes over 51.5 i'll actually advance to Level 7 (not counting on it).

I probably should've come up with a Level 7 in advance. It'll be good for, what, two weeks? Which means that yet again, the true depths of my depravity will go unrevealed.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Aerith
Rosalina
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Oh I definitely hate Mega Man for resisting LFF from Zero in 2013 far better than the last two times they'd been in a match together. (Also because this board insisted that Mega Man 2 was a masterpiece and it's literally unplayable.) Granted, all the stupidity in Division 8 meant that Charizard would've been boned the next round anyway, but that was painful.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Celes
Laharl
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

LusterSoldier posted...

We've seen SFF is also visible in off-site contests, such as the GameSpot contests from a few years ago. I archived all of the contest results here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vQ_o6O527nO6RXjnxfgNpGOamI-ixPxjL2Opon6lik0/pub

Their Mario/Samus match definitely showed signs of SFF, but the final result was a few points greater than how Mario/Samus would play out on this site.

Wow. Even there, Guybrush can't catch a win. And holy crap that Pac-Man vs. Kirby match.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Oh my god this is ridiculous. I'm laughing so hard.

You could even call it unBEARable.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

UltimaterializerX posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

ScareChan posted...

What this topic showed me is that kirby is just really strong

We already knew that.

And he was upset yesterday!!

Hardly. We already knew Bowser was really strong, too!
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Paging @jcgamer107

We've got a fresh Correct Unique Guru Pick. Congrats on being the only one to correctly call Alucard winning his division.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Dark Young Link posted...

Red lost because



Kirby lost because

Having seen all the pictures of "Bowsette", Kirby decided there was one thing he didn't want in his mouth.

Okay, yes, both of these.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Zelda
Magus
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Actually, I should probably bring up another of my picks.

Match #83 (R2) 24 Glorious Hours

Xenoblade Chronicles - 87 (44.16%)
DK Country 2 - 17 (8.63%)
Super Mario Maker - 53 (26.90%)
Fire Emblem Awakening - 40 (20.30%)

Only time I've been in the right when at least 90% of Gurus messed up. I could honestly extend that to having that entire division perfect, since literally half the Round 1 matches were called incorrectly by at least 40% of gurus, two of them being outright Guru upsets. But I'll stick with the R2 match where the correct pick was the least popular choice to win the fourpack and I got it.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Safer_777 posted...

@TsunamiXXVIII I have said numerous times in all contests that EVERY video game character should be allowed. John Cena VS Superman people!

Fair enough. I'm sure most fictional characters that would be worth nominating have at least one game.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Bulbasaur
Oak
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I am all for Geralt continuing to impress, even if I've yet to vote for him. He's a character who originated outside of video games, so he opens the door for other characters who have had highly acclaimed video games but didn't originate in them. Like Batman.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Individual picks? Missingno > Crono and Snake > Sephiroth.

Overall? Leading the Guru after Round 1 in 2015.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

ScareChan posted...

What this topic showed me is that kirby is just really strong

We already knew that.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

squexa posted...

So does anyone have an explanation for how in the world the Boss almost beat Sub-zero in 2013? Might have some implications for both of our upcoming matches.

Hype > Actual games. Even though she wasn't in the game in question, MGS characters might've been a bit stronger in 2013 because of MGSV hype. And not being in MGSV might have actually been better, because it meant that it wasn't counterbalanced by an MGSV pic.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Yeah. And not restricting it to 1v1 turns it into what I posted above, since regardless of whether you use the actual Top 8 or the X-Stats Top 8 from 2002 to start, it turns out to be the same once Mega beats Snake in 2004.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Kirby lost because HIERARCHY.
---

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BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

HaRRicH posted...

Rivalries: (Solid Snake and) Liquid Snake > Crono (and Lavos)

That one doesn't count. Cloud and Sephiroth were the only team in that contest comprised of two Noble Niners, so by definition as soon as any of the other seven ran into each other-- which inevitably two of them would since there weren't seven rounds--a non-Niner would be part of a team that beat a Niner. That's why I don't like counting Rivalry Rumble.

pjbasis posted...

pjbasis posted...

Try it again without 4ways or 3ways

Actually that would cause a break somewhere because missingno isnt in this contest

Oh Squirtle already does this

Well Squirtle was only in a 3way contest.

The only break in 1v1 was Missingno > Crono. It's that simple. (My idea was just riffing on the fact that while I wasn't there when it happened, the decision to set it at nine seems like a completely arbitrary one that just happened to work out.)

But I guess for my "Eleven"...

2003: Ganondorf defeats Tidus
2003: Magus defeats Ganondorf
2005: Knuckles defeats Magus
2005: Bowser defeats Ryu
2005: Squall defeats Knuckles
2005: Vincent defeats Squall
2010: Missingno defeats Crono
2010: Charizard defeats Bowser
2018: Bowser defeats Charizard
2018: Auron defeats Vincent

But yeah, I feel that the original 9 was the right call. Incidentally, the other side of what I mentioned was that it could've just as easily been only 8 instead of 9.

Original:
Link
Sephiroth
Mega Man
Samus
Sonic
Mario
Crono
Cloud

2006: Snake defeats Mega Man
2007: Vincent defeats Crono
2007: L-Block defeats Sonic
2008: Crono defeats L-Block
2008: Kirby defeats Sephiroth
2010: Missingno defeats Crono
2010: Sephiroth defeats Vincent
2010: Sonic defeats Kirby
2013: Vivi defeats Mario
2013: Squall defeats Missingno
2013: Draven defeats Link
2013: Mewtwo defeats Sonic
2013: Squirtle defeats Cloud
2013: Red defeats Squall
2013: Mega Man defeats Red
2013: Pikachu defeats Squirtle
2018: Amaterasu defeats Draven
2018: Tifa defeats Mewtwo
2018: Ganondorf defeats Vivi

Hm, not really as different from the one with the actual Noble Nine as I thought, since Snake, the one who wouldn't have been in the Elite Eight, got his first win over a fellow Noble Niner by beating Mega Man, whose slot in the actual Lineal Nine has yet to return to the Noble Nine since first being lost to Cube.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

So let's use your model with my hypothetical "Elite Eleven". As I said before, this represents what would've been a legitimate decision in 2002, which remember, was when the Noble Nine were crowned.

Original:
Link
Sephiroth
Mega Man
Samus
Sonic
Mario
Crono
Cloud
Snake
Ryu
Tidus

2003: Ganondorf defeats Tidus
2003: Magus defeats Ganondorf
2005: Knuckles defeats Magus
2005: Bowser defeats Ryu
2005: Squall defeats Knuckles
2005: Vincent defeats Squall
2007: Ryu defeats Bowser
2007: Auron defeats Ryu
2007: Ryu defeats Auron
2007: L-Block defeats Sonic
2008: Pikachu defeats L-Block
2008: Cube defeats Mega Man
2008: Kirby defeats Sephiroth
2010: Missingno defeats Crono
2010: Sephiroth defeats Vincent
2010: Luigi defeats Cube
2010: Sonic defeats Kirby
2013: Draven defeats Ryu
2013: Big Boss defeats Luigi
2013: Vivi defeats Mario
2013: Squall defeats Missingno
2013: Mewtwo defeats Sonic
2013: Kirby defeats Big Boss
2013: Squirtle defeats Cloud
2013: Red defeats Squall
2013: Mega Man defeats Red
2018: Amaterasu defeats Draven
2018: Tifa defeats Mewtwo
2018: Ganondorf defeats Vivi
2018: Bowser defeats Kirby

The current Elite Eleven:

Link
Samus
Snake
Squirtle > Cloud
Ganondorf > Vivi > Mario
Pikachu > L-Block > Sonic
Tifa > Mewtwo > Sonic > Kirby > Sephiroth
Mega Man > Red > Squall > Missingno > Crono
Bowser > Kirby > Big Boss > Luigi > Cube > Mega Man
Amaterasu > Draven > Ryu > Auron > Ryu > Bowser > Ryu
Sephiroth > Vincent > Squall > Knuckles > Magus > Ganondorf > Tidus

Wow. A lot of hilarity here. First off, Ryu takes back his own spot twice. But the greater upshot is that by having Tidus of all people originate a slot, Vincent was already an Elite Eleven in 2007... which means that Crono doesn't lose his slot. Which means that Crono can't be the one to take L-Block's slot, which means that Pikachu takes that one. Which, in turn, means that Squirtle doesn't cough up the slot that he won from Cloud the very next round. (Interestingly, this creates the first situation in which an active Elite Eleven was absent from a contest entirely.)

On the bright side, since Ryu kept taking back his own spot, Draven took a spot one round earlier, so Link never lost his. Which means that Ganondorf and Pikachu should both keep theirs.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Logience posted...

Noble Nine status isn't just a case of strength, though. It's mostly a case of veterancy and grandfathering.

Yeah, the Noble Nine has been "obsolete" for almost as long as it's been "relevant".

See, the original designation of nine was probably kind of arbitrary. As of the end of the 2005 contest, they were essentially five and four--Link/Mario/Cloud/Sephiroth/Crono had never lost to Snake/Samus/Mega/Sonic. In fact, neither Snake nor Sonic had beaten any of the others! And by that logic, Ryu could've easily been a founding member of the Terrific Ten as well--prior to his 2005 loss to Bowser, he'd only ever lost to Noble Niners and looked good every time, and considering him another elite legitimized Snake and Sonic as both of them beat him. Then Sonic beat Crono in 2006, only to lose the next round to Snake. Finally, every member of the Noble Nine had at least one win and at least one loss to another member of the Noble Nine, and in such a way that any one of them losing would "break" the Noble Nine for all of them.

And it took all of one year for that to happen. But it was in a controversial new format, so they still had the perfect 1v1 record. Until Missingno. happened. People wanted to just keep adding qualifiers, but other people came up with the "solution" that they don't need a solution. The Noble Nine are still the Noble Nine and always will be, even if their perfect record against outsiders is gone.

But I like this thought exercise. I've been around long enough to know how things work here, but I don't go all the way back to the beginning and I've never figured out, "Why Nine?" As I stated above, after the 2006 Contest it was concrete; removing any one of them would mean someone had lost to an outsider. It was conclusively proven that the initial call to make #9 the cutoff was the right one. But you look at the 2002 X-Stats, the #9 character is a lot closer to #10 than to #8. Closer to #11 than to #8, actually, and #6 was barely closer to #5 than to #11 (though with how close 6-8 were, #7 is also closer to #5 than to #11, and in fact as close to #4 as to #11.) So why 9 instead of 8, or 10, or 11?

In fact, I feel like 11 is a good cutoff for my hypothetical alternate universe nobility, since the gap between #11 and #12 is where that magic number of 33.33% lies and thus, the line for who would be expected to not get doubled by #1 Link.

And by that measure, this would get pretty hilarious, because while #10 Ryu has never really disappointed, the #11 finisher in 2002 is...kind of a joke, albeit one who has been in every contest just like the others.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Games =/= Characters. Though usually with RPGs it's the games themselves that are stronger, so you'd think FFX dropping would be bad for its characters.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Godot
Kirby
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Heh. Not surprised given my user name that I wound up with a Water-type. Though I find Swampert a rather ironic choice given its bulky design; among Water-types I'd probably choose Greninja, maybe Vaporeon.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

squexa posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Xeybozn posted...

Am I crazy for thinking Alucard probably hasn't boosted much and only looks so good because everyone else in the division sucks? Sora/Red/Big Boss/Kefka all being weaker than we expected pre-contest isn't as weird as Peach and Crash suddenly becoming strong midcarders in my opinion.

Not really? Big Boss has obviously fallen hard--not only letting Crash get close to him, but also doing worse on Red than Sora did despite it being clear from every other match they've been in that the KH crew has fallen hard. Red... that's a slightly tougher read, because Red's 2013 path was aided by favorable SFF scenarios so we weren't necessarily sure he was strong to begin with. So he may not have fallen that far.

But then there's Kefka. Kefka barely outperformed Yuna on Alucard, which does seem kind of weird. In the context of the rest of the division, this suggests that Yuna hasn't lost much strength, possibly even gained strength since 2010 when she lost to... Zack Fair? The same Zack Fair that Kefka not only beat in 2013, but avoided LFF against well enough to win against what seemed like an equally strong opponent?

I guess that's just the power of SFF. Kefka easily beats Zack and Zack easily beats Yuna, but indirectly Kefka and Yuna are more or less equal.

...Huh. Come to think of it, Auron's looked damn good this contest as well. Maybe the win over Subby was a tad underwhelming but aside from Guile getting pasted by Kirby, fighting game characters have also looked oddly strong this year. Is it possible that FFX boosted somehow? That makes no sense. And if so, Donkey Kong you beast!

Yeah, the Kefka situation is bizarre. I think another possibility is that Zack fell hard in 2013 (which isn't that implausible since other peripheral FFVII characters like Vincent also fell), which gave the false illusion that Kefka boosted.

The really weird thing is that Terra looks great this year in her match with Charizard, so believing Alucard is actually weak the whole time means believing that Terra is now considerably stronger than Kefka.

Yeah. That's true; we saw Vincent weaken and a lot of people just wanted to blame the pic sabotage. So Zack weakening makes sense, and in the context of his match with Kefka, we assumed a Kefka boost instead because Kefka won outright and our last impression of the character who was trying to take advantage of the SFF was one of strength. But really, why wouldn't Ryu Hayabusa be weaker?
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Oh, hey, Ermine's back!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Xeybozn posted...

Am I crazy for thinking Alucard probably hasn't boosted much and only looks so good because everyone else in the division sucks? Sora/Red/Big Boss/Kefka all being weaker than we expected pre-contest isn't as weird as Peach and Crash suddenly becoming strong midcarders in my opinion.

Not really? Big Boss has obviously fallen hard--not only letting Crash get close to him, but also doing worse on Red than Sora did despite it being clear from every other match they've been in that the KH crew has fallen hard. Red... that's a slightly tougher read, because Red's 2013 path was aided by favorable SFF scenarios so we weren't necessarily sure he was strong to begin with. So he may not have fallen that far.

But then there's Kefka. Kefka barely outperformed Yuna on Alucard, which does seem kind of weird. In the context of the rest of the division, this suggests that Yuna hasn't lost much strength, possibly even gained strength since 2010 when she lost to... Zack Fair? The same Zack Fair that Kefka not only beat in 2013, but avoided LFF against well enough to win against what seemed like an equally strong opponent?

I guess that's just the power of SFF. Kefka easily beats Zack and Zack easily beats Yuna, but indirectly Kefka and Yuna are more or less equal.

...Huh. Come to think of it, Auron's looked damn good this contest as well. Maybe the win over Subby was a tad underwhelming but aside from Guile getting pasted by Kirby, fighting game characters have also looked oddly strong this year. Is it possible that FFX boosted somehow? That makes no sense. And if so, Donkey Kong you beast!
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Because Link always needs to open with a blowout?
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Nanis23 posted...

Janus5k posted...

Bowser > Luigi > Yoshi sounds right

This

Yeah, probably. Yoshi is definitely the weakest of the three; Luigi-Bowser is a tougher call.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

charmander6000 posted...

Samus and Yoshi overlap more than Mega Man and Yoshi

I would believe that. Of course, I'd believe it more if it was '08, since I'm of the opinion that "Mega Man" was a proxy for all Mega Men until X actually made it in as a separate character. Super Metroid is still generally considered Samus's most defining game, so she's probably considered an "SNES character", same as Yoshi. Starting in 2008, "Mega Man" no longer has his hand in the SNES cookie jar.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

TooTooP3 posted...

Just checked the contest standings.

More people had Pikachu winning the division than Ganondorf? Interesting

Doesn't surprise me. Pikachu had a softer division, or at least one that would be perceived as such. I vaguely seem to remember Zero being one who's often underestimated, and that's the legitimate biggest threat to Pikachu.

Ganondorf, on the other hand, was in the same division as someone who literally beat him just last contest. Yes, it was in an SFF situation and had rallies fueling an overperformance, but still.

If you look at it round by round, Ganondorf had a higher prediction percentage in Round 1 (not surprising since Pikachu actually drew a midcarder in R1--though Ganondorf had the highest prediction percentage of the round, which might be mildly surprising because Neku's not a newcomer, he's Square, and this was a 4-13 match. Though maybe being a proven loser was why Neku had less support than the likes of Primrose and Hat Kid!), and he still had a higher prediction percentage in Round 2. But Pikachu takes a slight lead over Ganondorf in R3 prediction percentage, suggesting that Dante > Ganondorf was considered a more likely upset than Yoshi > Pikachu, and that's extended here in Round 4, suggesting that Vivi or even Leon were considered better chances than Zero. Which, again, makes sense because the common wisdom is that Mega Man is pseudo-Nintendo.

TL;DR Ganondorf was in a division with multiple non-Nintendo midcarders, while every midcarder in Pikachu's division was Nintendo or pseudo-Nintendo.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

creativename posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

SwiftyDC posted...

Dracula needs to make a comeback next contest.

I've been suggesting something similar. We need to have more characters that originated in other media. Geralt proved that they're viable.

Certain characters would certainly be viable, though Geralt is poor example of that.

Nobody knows him from the novels. He gets all his strength from his games.

Oh, I agree completely, but he's still set the precedent for a character that wasn't video-game first doing well. I suggested earlier that we use "successful games", which is to say, something we've put into a Games Contest, to determine which non-video game characters are allowed in before opening it up completely. So any Disney character to be in KH or KH2; the Marvel half of MvC2; The Simpsons; Batman and whichever of his villains were in Arkham Asylum or Arkham City... probably some others I can't think of right now. Do KotOR or Battlefront have any characters originating in the movies or even the books?
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Dels posted...

He's not a troll, he's just a naive person who didn't have a clue why what he said was disrespectful.

Which is why I have no enmity, because I'm a naive person who often sticks their foot in their mouth. Leon still hasn't forgiven me for something stupid I said years ago and it's starting to bug me because I agree with his opinions almost unilaterally and under most circumstances I'd expect him to be one of my closer friends here. Oh wait...his personality is also similar to mine, so it's no wonder we clash.

That's actually part of why I like Ulti. He was the first one to call me out on how stupid I was when I first came here, and he did it in a way that I had to just look back at myself and say "God, I was an idiot!"
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

I guess two apiece for me? Or four, if I can't use a single code to get both Kyogre and Groudon. I've got all four of S/M/US/UM.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

MAX on Zelda+Auron
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

SwiftyDC posted...

Dracula needs to make a comeback next contest.

I've been suggesting something similar. We need to have more characters that originated in other media. Geralt proved that they're viable.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

UltimaterializerX posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

we all thought it would

"We"?

There was literally zero reason for Kirby to close that gap. Zero.

You and I are in agreement on that one! I think I ended up following the herd and taking Kirby in Oracle but that could've just been wishful thinking because I'm a big Kirby fan. Already planning to rally for a Kirby game next time we have a Games Contest because the series is literally only 0-1 all-time (Super Star made the '09 bracket and got fed to SM64, not that it would've beaten 2nd-place finisher SotN 1v1 anyway.)

I'm assuming given how infrequent Games Contests are that our next one will be 2020's "GotD 2010-2019" so the current plan is Return to Dreamland, but if we get an open one I'll gladly switch over to Crystal Shards!
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.