Lurker > ShatteredElysium

It depends on the wording really

Is scum win condition to outnumber town or is scum win condition to control the majority of the vote?

I would say it is the latter as that is where everywhere I've read words it.

A survivor wins once another faction reaches their win condition. At 2:2:1 the Mafia have not achieved their win condition.

You don't subtract the survivor vote from the numbers for win condition purposes. Nor do you give it to the mafia either as it's possible for the survivor to win with town.

Also

The answer is because he is not town and has his own win condition. Otherwise he would just be town.

No he wouldn't just be town because if town wins but the survivor died, then he does not win like all other town. Having to be alive at the end of the game completely changes how you play the game.

So basically the crux of this comes down to that you see Independent as aligned with the mafia whereas I see Independent as its own alignment.

Your scenario is not remotely the same as what I said.

If the Mafia has 74, Town has 70 and there's one survivor then Mafia are the majority and control the vote and have already won.

If the Mafia has 2, Town has 2 and there's one survivor then Mafia are not the majority and do not control the vote. They still have to perform the kill in order to get the majority.

So actually my first post is slightly wrong. If they mislynch at 2/2/1 then the game is over and survivor wins. If they no lynch, the night kill needs to happen and survivor possibly does not win if mafia night kill them to win the game.

Which is why at 2/2/1 the day phase has to happen instead of being auto-mafia/survivor win. If the survivor comes in and vote no lynch, there's a chance Mafia NK them. If survivor comes in and votes someone allowing Mafia to hammer, there's a chance their vote is on a mafia member so the mafia can't hammer to win. The mafia can't out themselves as they get lynched and don't know there's a survivor.

Both the mafia and survivor need to out themselves in order to ensure the Mafia/Independent win but as soon as the either outs themselves they run the risk of getting lynched.

Oh, I have no problem with how we played in 2012. It's just you can't really blame a penalty loss when you played for penalties.

I think the narrative is always going to be that way because we are England and regardless of the players at our disposal the media is going to spin it into we are a big team so shouldn't play like that

Yes because there's a difference between a solo win and a shared win.

If the Survivor wants to side with the Mafia to win then I've got no problem with that but there should always be that inherent risk in doing so. Maybe the mafia upholds their side of the deal, maybe they don't. The survivor can opt not to reveal they are survivor and side with town if they don't want to take that risk

Who wouldn't be playing to win in that scenario? Are you saying the Survivor could just peace out and no lynch with scum? Because I still firmly support that if the Survivor opts to no lynch in that scenario, the night phase should still happen allowing Mafia to night kill them and get the solo win.

Night phase doesn't process in a normal scenario because it doesn't matter who scum kill in a Town vs Scum endgame night phase. It absolutely should happen in any sort of Town vs Survivor vs Scum endgame because it affects the overall result.

Survivor can still win with scum if scum target the remaining town member but there's no guarantee they do. Which is why it would be risky for the survivor to side with scum on the no lynch (or any lynch), they would be relying on the scum not betraying them and night killing them to get the solo win.

That's kinda why for all the bad rep the England 'golden generation' gets, people sometimes forget just how many times they got screwed over by penalties and/or bad referee decisions. There was certainly bad performances in there like Euro 2000 and not qualifying for Euro 2008 but most big tournament defeats were marred by red cards, disallowed goals and/or penalties

Euro 96 - Lost on Penalties. Game winning goal disallowed
WC 98 - Lost on Penalties. Beckham red card
WC 02 - Wonder goal. This one hurt the most as England deserved to win and had a man advantage, just weren't clinical.
Euro 04 - Lost on Penalties. Had a goal disallowed
WC 06 - Lost on Penalties. Rooney red card

Everything after that is kind of a disappointment and a declining team. There was the Lampard goal that crossed the line in 2010 yet wasn't given causing England to implode afterwards but it's hard to argue with a 4-1 scoreline even if the 'goal' would have tied things up. Plus if we had taken care of business like we were supposed to in the group stage, we would have had a far easier path. Not sure we beat Holland in the semi's in that alternate reality though as they won every game in qualifying and won all their game in the World Cup up to that point

There was the penalty loss to Italy in 2012 too but we were so thoroughly outplayed in normal time that game that if we had won on penalties, it would have been a robbery.

Well Portugal eliminated England on penalties in both 2004 and 2006.

2006 is the one where Ronaldo got Rooney sent off and Beckham went off injured earlier in the game. Even with 10 men England were arguably the better team too (actually England seemed to play better once they went down to 10 men iirc)

2004 was where we had a winning goal disallowed for bullshit reasons at the end of the game

Forceful_Dragon posted...

IfGodCouldDie posted...

I do. In my games mafia's win con is control the vote. If they are even with town and there is a survivor, mafia does not control the vote.

So 2 mafia + 2 town + 1 survivor is not mafia victory?

Not sure why it would be? They can't force the lynch and if mafia gets lynched, even with the night kill they still don't control it nor is the Survivor guaranteed to survive

Independent is independent, why would it count towards mafias vote control numbers?

Plus mafia wouldn't even know they were 2/2/1, they would assume 2/3.

Had 10 tickets

1 UW (Roi)
3 CUW
1 Artifact (Mirror)
0 UT

That feels woefully under what it should be. Especially as last double event I spent I think 8 or 10 tickets and got only 1 UW too.

Meow1000 posted...

turbopuns2 posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

My understand is that the Survivor's directive to win with whichever side makes it a tacitly pro-scum role and if Scum + Survivor equals town then the game is over.

How do you address the fact that survivor can't actually know for sure who scum is?

If it's in final 4, survivor always claims survivor and drops a vote on NL. Town loses.

So in a Survivor vs Town vs Scum scenario scum wins too? Because NL results in that after NK and game should be determined by whoever survivor pairs with in the final 3. They can't NL again otherwise scum can shoot them to get the solo win

neonreaper posted...

I thought that survivor wins when a faction wins, and doesnt count as scum when doing that math.

turbopuns2 posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

My understand is that the Survivor's directive to win with whichever side makes it a tacitly pro-scum role and if Scum + Survivor equals town then the game is over.

How do you address the fact that survivor can't actually know for sure who scum is?

Pretty much this. Game shouldn't end at that point because Scum wouldn't know who the Survivor was so are for all intents and purposes 1 vs 3 needing the mislynch and night kill to win.

And in that scenario I even think they should be made to submit the night kill to see if the Survivor actually survives. Plus what if the Survivor or BP or something? Then it isn't guaranteed to be a game ending NK

RyoCaliente posted...

Obviously haven't seen Colombia play yet but Mexico didn't beat Germany on a fluke...

They didn't but it was also the anomaly amongst their recent results too. So we will see if they keep playing like that

For as good as Mexico were, Germany were also pretty bad that game as well

XIII_rocks posted...

Oh don't get me wrong, I make Colombia favourites in round 2. But if we get through it...I saw QFs as the ceiling because of Germany/Brazil but Mexico are less of a frightening prospect

We could still fuck up the group though so

It's actually pretty hard for us to do now unless several games goes against betting odds.

Not saying it isn't possible but the 2 ways I can think of it happening are Panama beats us + Tunisia and we lose to Belgium. Or Tunisia beats Belgium (and Panama) with us losing to Belgium and not beating Panama

I think England would be favored against both Colombia and Mexico. Whether they win is another matter

Portugal can get fucked if we meet them. Not a single time they beat us in my lifetime were they the better team.

We also don't even need to lose to Belgium. They have a 3-0 behind them. So even if we draw with them we probably finish 2nd.

Yeah I mean I'm sure Belgium thought the same at the Euros before getting dumped out by Wales

That's the last 16. I'm talking about the quarter finals

Honestly, it may be in England's best interests to finish 2nd in the group given other results. Granted it's early and that can change but right now with Germany stumbling, the group winner potentially walks into that Germany/Brazil bloodbath in the quarters . The runner up gets a relatively easy ride to the semi finals (ok, not easy but a lot easier than any alternative route looks)

Obviously it's still early though and a lot can change

davidponte posted...

If this score holds, is this the most disappointing result so far? The Germany, Argentina, and Brazil results, although less so with the latter, were not what anyone was expecting, but this is literally Tunisia.

Tunisia are ranked 21st in the world and up until recently were higher ranked than England. Granted world rankings are usually garbage but Tunisia aren't the joke team they once were.

That being said, we should have had 4 or 5 in that game if we just converted some of our chances. Pretty annoying that they were continuously allowed to wrestle Kane to the ground on set pieces too.

It's silly too as I go watch all Orlando's women's games and there is zero diving in the women's game. You know if someone goes down and stays down, they are genuinely hurt

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We using this topic for reals or creating an actual topic?

There's really that many half backs who averaged 1650+ yards a season? Yikes. Or did you factor in I'm run heavy so his numbers are inflated?

What sort of production were the SSs putting in?

Surprised Jamario Thomas didn't make the list given his production for me and that him being missing for most of last season likely cost me playoff qualification

I am not surprised that none of my other players made it (aside from traded Laurinaitis who was amazing) given their inconsistency. Tufts horrible last year screws him and I think my other solid performer was Jermaine Phillips who retired but I think most SS put up good numbers so not sure his numbers would even qualify him anyway

Always no

MI said he would have scanned me prior night if not for the replace. He also said earlier that day who he would scan that night.

So yeah it was a risk I wouldn't get scanned (Death scanned Arti for what it's worth) but it was a calculated risk that wasn't 50/50 in my eyes

Panthera posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

In both my games as scum, town has lost due to following the cop too much. Last one is self explanatory.

The one where one of our biggest fuck ups was not trusting the cop? The one where according to the scum board, although you didn't go through with it, you seriously considered a plan of action that would have guaranteed you lost had the wrong person been scanned and town simply paid attention to the scan results?

ShatteredElysium posted...

Town absolutely is lazy. Any chance to take the thinking out of their hands, they grasp it

lol

Not following on your first part. If we had gone with that plan, we wouldn't have killed either scanner and would have virtually guaranteed a scan on the last scum since there was 2 scanners, 2 unscanned and the scum we wanted left didn't fear either scan. The only chance of it going wrong was if the scanned targeted one of the thought to be confirmed roles

Whether you trusted the cop or not was irrelevant. You either trusted him and we got cleared with a scan. Or you didn't trust him and mislynched him.

Meow1000 posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

Meow1000 posted...

Alakazamtrainer posted...

I was saving face. Literally my opinion of who I save trumps everyone elses.

You were town doctor and virtually confirmed town. What reason did you have to "save face"? There's very few reasons to lie as town. Corrik lying ****ed that town over too.

Hell, town probably wins that game if people don't lie for no damned reason.

Town win if they don't eat 3 modkills too. Granted scum agreed to use a nightkill to nullify one of those

Irrelevant on the Corrik kill. Scum often wants final 4 over final 3 anyway.

Not really irrelevant in that game. We absolutely didn't want Panth around for that final day but we wanted to try maintain game integrity

Other pet peeve is towns penchant for mass claiming and doing it early. Most of the time it benefits scum way more than town. Not always but it's usually the case.

Panthera posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

Yeah it's not an ideal way to do but a set up that encourages people to actually follow their own reads and try work stuff put themselves rather than relying on scanners gets a thumbs up from me

If you're going that route it's better to just run an all vanilla game, since that actually does make people have to follow their reads. If you have scans in the game people are going to pay attention to them. I don't think it makes town lazy and dumb for not assuming innocent scans weren't actually information

In both my games as scum, town has lost due to following the cop too much. Last one is self explanatory. The other one I claimed cop as Mafia Godfather and tricked town until I could suicide a mislynch to cause Lylo with my scum buddy set.

Town absolutely is lazy. Any chance to take the thinking out of their hands, they grasp it. You see it all the time when a lynch is set early so town just packs up tools for the day

Meow1000 posted...

Alakazamtrainer posted...

I was saving face. Literally my opinion of who I save trumps everyone elses.

You were town doctor and virtually confirmed town. What reason did you have to "save face"? There's very few reasons to lie as town. Corrik lying ****ed that town over too.

Hell, town probably wins that game if people don't lie for no damned reason.

Town win if they don't eat 3 modkills too. Granted scum agreed to use a nightkill to nullify one of those

Yeah, claiming fake actions can also have the unintended consequence of getting you lynched for lying if someone can contradict it. And then they get lynched too after your flip

Panthera posted...

How is a godfather scanner a "weak godfather"

You can choose not to scan if it's that important to you

You can decide whether you want to be immune to every scan or just immune to most of them. That is in no way a downgrade from being immune to one type of scan and not having the option to also find power roles

Because you have to pick between the two. If the detective was on another scum role i'd understand. Like yes it's still powerful, like any scanning tricking scum roles but you have to give up a role to have it at full power (which scum did here because town mass claimed early meaning the detective part was irrelevant)

Personally I like double godfather and I'm not saying it because it benefitted us the last game. Town has a tendency to follow the scans instead of playing the game and actually reading people. Following scans leads to such lazy gameplay and I hate it

Yeah it's not an ideal way to do but a set up that encourages people to actually follow their own reads and try work stuff put themselves rather than relying on scanners gets a thumbs up from me

foolm0r0n posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

Town literally had 4 scanning roles

One of which was anti-town due to TWO GODFATHERS

also are we really counting shitwatcher and shitrolecop as scanners here?

Well then it wasn't 2 godfathers. It was 1 godfather and 1 weak godfather

Town literally had 4 scanning roles and a backup. 2 godfathers isn't that bad when one of them was a role that moved every night so could be caught by other means unlike a normal godfather

Dragon 80 is hard as balls. I had to manual and use Gau to get consistent wins with my guild earlier.

Also the new gear options make getting optimal gear nigh on impossible now. The pool is too bloated. Even getting a good 3/4 piece will be difficult.

Upside is that now farming Fire Dragon instead of Black Dragon isn't detrimental (outside less dragon coins and possibly longer to kill) as you can gear the sets to come out identical. And Fire Dragon is vastly easier to kill than Black Dragon due to way less health.

I can see me being able to solo FD80 in the near future. I cannot see me being able to solo BD80 in the near future as I'm going to need almost fully upgraded T8 gear

Yeah I mean my solution isn't ideal. It's still slow but it at least helps somewhat

I also made a note of where important parts were. Which again not ideal but helps. Like I don't know if people saw I noted day end posts within my iso, I also marked down where FDs info dumps were in my personal notes. Plus any other important stuff

I see people complaining about the archive speed. I spent several hours iso'ing on there last game. The trick is to open all the tabs from a topic at once.

And I mean also, not letting topics purge as town kinda helps too.

VeryInsane posted...

Also kinda disappointed neither Arti nor Panthera looked at Zachs old posts, there was one IIRC that he called Crescent town and really struggled to explain why

Town seemed pretty hung up on only looking at Day 1 and Day 6 for some reason. Nobody actually looked into Colzach whatsoever since he was inactive Day 6. I'm also surprised nobody scrutinized his inactivity Day 6 given how much that lynch was looked at. Like if he had been around or he had thrown a vote down on Donk, maybe I don't get lynched as it requires a larger vote swing.

It was bizarre to watch and it wasn't just at endgame. People wanted to find scum entirely through what previous scum did or what a previous player did rather than actively looking at what the current players in game were doing. It wasn't just for Col either. I'm not saying you shouldn't look into those things, it just shouldn't be the only thing your basing your opinion on. Col made some pretty bad posts over the final few days that we thought for sure someone would notice and tear into him for.

Donk also went inactive for huge swathes of time whilst under suspicion and nobody even bothered to look at him or poke him. In a game going 5000+ posts you had Donk and Arti in the final four with like only 100-200 posts between them for the entire game. Like I get people are busy but for a game spanning a good chunk of the month, that's pretty low activity

Panthera posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

Panthera posted...

Man, reading the scum board reminds me why I decided to stop playing mafia

I wouldn't beat yourself up. Easy for us to talk big when we are the informed few. We thought you would stubbornly defy us in the final day too. That final day was basically Turbo, SE and Col against your logic

If you haven't seen it yet, I wanted you killed a few days earlier because you were playing well.

No you're right that despite thinking things through way more than is healthy for a b8 mafia game, 98% of what I thought was stupid and wrong

1% remaining is that as far as I can tell you never considered that I was way overstating my confidence on everything to see how Zach responded, rather than actually believing I was right (really, the fact that I rambled endlessly about a million different contradictory scenarios should have tipped you off...)

The other 1% is that lynching you wasn't some arbitrary b8 special moment, I was actually following this game from the beginning to see if it would make me want to play mafia again (well, it certainly reminded me of why I quit...) and was pretty confident on Crescent being scum from early on, the literal only reason I didn't go after you sooner was I didn't think I could do it without making people want to lynch me for such an arbitrary splinter, then with twenty minutes left I figured what the fuck, we're thinking of lynching people I think are town (woops...well, half woops), I'm going to try to lynch scum.

It's funny you say that as I was pretty certain Crescent was scum when I repped in too. I wonder if just being an outsider to the game entirely helped there.

I say B8 special because it was a last 30 minute thing where town hadn't actually discussed much all day and I wasn't mentioned too much as a lynch candidate. I said it on the scum board a few times but town activity level was criminal at times

VeryInsane posted...

You guys are getting ColZack

Im throwing him to the wolves but hey maybe he is actually great

Oh shit I knew exactly what I was planning all this time

Yeah how do you think I felt repping in lol

Oh you haven't played for 6 years? Here rep in as scum who are 4 down after 4 days and your remaining scum buddy is also a rep in his first game. Have fun!

Panthera posted...

Man, reading the scum board reminds me why I decided to stop playing mafia

I wouldn't beat yourself up. Easy for us to talk big when we are the informed few. We thought you would stubbornly defy us in the final day too. That final day was basically Turbo, SE and Col against your logic

If you haven't seen it yet, I wanted you killed a few days earlier because you were playing well.

Goddamnit VI. I told you. The miracle never happen!

VeryInsane posted...

Ending day early also didn't really help

FD, DYL, NewDonker all didn't really participate during those days. Town's good players (Like Scare and Leo) didn't really get to go get some insight knowing that the lynch was going to be scum. Usually when you have scum wrapped up, it's good to figure out with other players who are alive "ok, now who is next amongst the players?" because you can't communicate that when you're dead

Yeah I will never get the ending days early thing. It just seems so anti-town to me and I've always hated it. Even if the lynch is obvious, you can still get info from it

foolm0r0n posted...

Sceptilesolar posted...

Because they... played badly?

That's the way Mafia math works. Town can't get ahead of scum, it can only stay at parity or fall behind. No matter how well they do at first, they still can't repeatedly mislynch after that.

Well what I mean is, how did we get so far ahead like that, and then on D5 when all the scans came out, it still turned into such a close and ambiguous game?

The scans actively ruined town. It's why I was lynched. It's why MI had to be lynched even though we were pretty confident he was town, due to statistics. That seems like the opposite of what power roles should do.

I think part of it is the first 4 days were so easy and so then it becomes hard to find 2 scum amongst a lot of people with not a lot of info due to how straightforward the lynches were.

Mass claiming didn't help town either. I don't know if it was the right play at the time but it definitely let scum pick off the roles we knew could hurt us.

Setup definitely helped us too. Being able to just leave the cop up because you don't fear his scans helps a ton, especially as you know he's going to come under scrutiny for not dying

Corrik posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

Corrik posted...

PrinceKaro posted...

I just want to say I have zero respect for how Corrik played the game, and I will absolutely refuse to ever play in a game he is a part of.

You deserved to lose the game, not only because you are not as good of a player as you seem to think you are, but because you are an egomaniacal PoS who makes the atmosphere so toxic that we literally had a player leave the board over this.

Cool. A person who never plays mafia is mad that a person insulted repeatedly throughout the game played mafia and was wrong on someone's alignment. Glad to hear that.

For the record I wasn't a fan of your play either before repping in. I also posted a bit about it on the scum board for you to read but that was before the MI thing. I did think you mellowed out a bit after I posted it on the scum board though and thought about deleting

Also, just to throw in there that I do like you as a person and it's definitely nothing personal against you. I just don't like that play style. I hated it when Ulti did it back in the day too

What was my playstyle that you hated so much? That I am confident in my reads? Confidence is what you hate? I didn't make MI do that.

Is it because I dismiss reads I disagree with? Why wouldn't I?

You are playing a game where making your voice heard and arguing your point is important. Why get muddled in pointless talk?

I make hard reads. They end up gloriously or disasterously. I play much more aggressive. I use any information to my use. If I can fake information, a claim, etc that generates discussion, I do so. Colzach should have died for his reaction to my scan on eaed. If it wasn't for all the scum we lined up, he likely would have. That is information the game never gets without doing what I do. Towns purpose is to generate information to make reads. Otherwise we would all use RNG generators to determine our lynches.

Because you present opinions as fact and how you talk to people who disagrer can come across as bullying even if it isnt. You can be confident without being shitty to people. And i absolutely know you arent meaning to be and you arent being personal about it, you're just trying to win.At the end of the day, it's a game and should be fun. And that play style makes it not fun for a lot of other people

I don't blame you at all for the MI isn't for the record. It sucks and I feel really bad for MI but it also isn't your fault