Lurker > Lopen

Hbthebattle posted...

what else about me is scummy other than the bad vote and you not liking my claim?

That's literally it. It is enough. You haven't posted much for me to have more material and your claim and the inferences you claimed to make from your claim was VERY bad

Sometimes it really just is simple.

Hbthebattle posted...

He claims to have liked Ctes's content yesterday, yet he voted him

He said he had a town read on sbell. He's been consistent with this.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Lopen, a postulate:

If, indeed, Poppy dies from poison and is Scum - then Hb is not Scum. After all, if any Scum were going to fakeclaim a scanner, wouldn't it be the one who knows they are going to die?

We unfortunately do not know whether Poppy is informed he is poisoned. But yes I do give Hb more time in that case. It's hard for him to continue to be alive and fake that either way.

I do think Poppy X Ctes X Hb X Kirby/Chang is a valid config.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Then tell me Lopen, I flip town, what solving material

People late who didn't move become implicated as scum does not have reason to move. People who moved or cast late votes would be more likely town. Hb looks considerably better. People who were too staunch in defending you become implicated because the case on you as town is not very good to be honest so only scum would be that confident you're town.

Knowing alignments on end of day wagons in a situation is always the most useful thing for game solving, if you're unsure. Even if it's town town or scum scum.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

And yet you were yelling at me to go Hb instead earlier...

I have absolute conviction Hb is scum and wasn't convinced you were town yet. I also think Hb provides almost identical amounts of material.

Also I went to Ctes didn't I? That's the key difference. The case on Ben is way less strong than the case on Hb if you believe where I'm going.

Like compare my argument against Hb to literally anyone's against Ben. There is no comparison. I have concrete things I've caught Hb on. Ben despite Kirby claiming he'd pull receipts, we've seen none. It's just general "oh Ben is scummy"

changmas posted...

Lopen and I were dead wrong about ctes in Dota2 Mafia and lost the game off of it.

Hell no

I don't believe you believe this for a second

We got fucked by stupid roles it had nothing to do with our reads.

On the flip side why Ctes is always scum is this

Unless you have absolute conviction Ctes is town, Ctes is by far the best lynch today. He gives us a ton of game solving material.

We have far too many players saying he might be scum and then not voting him. If he's anywhere but clearly town, you vote him. That's just how you play mafia.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

It just seems a little odd to me that Ctes earlier this day expressed that it was "either Ben or Chang" to look at, yet is appearing to be hesitant about Chang now.

Ben being a lightning rod for votes is why Ben is never scum here.

If Ctes is anywhere in your POE he is a natural vote here.

He was in Hb's yesterday, Hb votes Ben
Ctes is now showing signs of leaning Ben
Chang has Ctes and Kirby in his PoE, votes Ben
Kirby was humoring Ctes, supposedly, then claimed to find nothing out of the ordinary, votes Ben
Chang has Ctes and Kirby in his PoE, votes Ben

Honestly it might just be Kirby Chang Hb Ctes it seems so obvious now. Too many people saying others in the circle might be scummy and making no moves to them.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Stop circling the argument around ffs, we just established that I was not in that position before minutes before I claimed.

Again. Momentum is very tangible there. NO ONE was in that position until minutes before you claimed.

But like, scum WON'T shoot you because you're on the chopping block. That's the sad truth of it all. So your desire to protect power roles by hesitating to claim, it's not realistic.

You can't plan for post day 1 if you're in position to die day 1.

If you're power sure. As vanilla though? You don't hesitate. You have no ace to deploy later and if scum shoots you when you're on the chopping block, great!

ctesjbuvf posted...

You generally don't just claim from having a single vote on you. Not having claimed now would have been more ideal for the off chance scum would shot me for hunting

Scum never shoots you in that game state. Literally never. Same reason they never shoot Hb.

You are not driving the game and have reasons to be suspected. The most pro town move is to claim as soon as possible in that situation and hope town has time to digest and doesn't panic into a bad lynch.

In no circumstances do we lynch Chang before Hb or Ctes though. Most stuff that makes Chang really look bad routes through those two.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Both Chang and Ctes had the other in their low end of PoE, yet are saying to lynch others.

Both are Scum.

Coming around to it. Chang wanting a vote on Ben when Hb AND Ctes are in his POE and have much better cases

Kirby and Hb not voting Chang despite him having similar case to Ben

Ctes Chang Hb Kirby? Yeah maybe.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Now I can't help myself, even if I already used my energy for arguing with Lopen up last game.

Your first two arguments are worse than most things anyone has made this game because they're flat out wrong and you don't have to know I'm town to see that. I was not in contention for the lynch before like 5-7 minutes before deadline when it came basically out of nowhere. I didn't f***ing hold off anything, we're talking minutes here. SBell's traction was not as out of nowhere as mine was, he had been focused on for a while at that point, and he started having votes before me. That second "solid argument" would be a case against chang if anyone. None of this is opinion, it's flat out what happened. You can't just flip the situation around to fit your stupid narrative.

I had to prod you to claim when you were clearly in contention and it made sense for you to have already claimed. Where the actual votes are is irrelevant, you had thoughts as a lynch candidate all day. Look at Han's reaction to your momentum topic 3 post 58. Anyone present could see it, you most of all. Town vanilla doesn't need prodding to claim, they claim asap so people can evaluate whether they believe it.

ctesjbuvf posted...

I think Kirby looks town for going after the falacies in Lopen's posts

I just went through them in detail. They don't exist.

You agreeing that he has merit heavily hints you're scummates. You've clearly done no critical thinking with respect to Kirby's thoughts on my posts and just said that Kirby was right.

changmas posted...

##Vote: Ben

Chang please vote Ctes if you think Ctes is likely scum

It gives us a lot more game solving material and if Ctes flips scum (as I'm sure he will) Ben looks a LOT better.

Kirby321 posted...

I have argued against your points countless times in detail. You want posts? Have some!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80196230/968700429

Let's go in detail

Post 1 and Post 2.
Kirby claims to follow my thought process, claiming I made an interesting point. He then reevaluates and says "no because they wouldn't make the pot of greed gambit if they thought Sultan was day cop and had scanned BCT" to which I say "not necessarily"

For example, if the scumteam is only half considering a gambit they could guess that "if Sultan is cop, he may scan BCT tomorrow or may have already scanned BCT so we need to make BCT look more town. This also works as a non-gambit play. But the basic idea is that if Sultan as day cop is in BCT's head there might be a reason for that-- him mulling it over as scum. Whether the gambit makes sense or not is irrelevant-- we can't assume perfect play.

As for mass pot of greed, it's an excellent use of gold and note I only suggested that because I was specifically asked for an upside to pot of greed cancelling on BCT. Better than anything I see on the table to be honest. Not a far fetched gambit at all, and one other players have mentioned.

I would argue that if you can follow my logic at all, it's not as crazy as you're making it out to be.

Post 3.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80196230/968713671

No receipts were pulled to this point, even when you voted Ben. So nothing crazy here.

Post 4.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80196230/968713760

Says Ben has merit as consistent. You disagree with me saying the vote makes Ben look town. So? How is that me being crazy again? My logic exists and can be followed by others in the game. Scum Ben has no incentive to stick a vote out there. It draws a lot of attention. Doubly so if Ctes is scum. Further I am arguing Ben as town. That is very game relevant and not to distract town.

Post 5
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80198310/968716429

No one thinks that line makes sense aside from you and Hb, not even abacus. If anything Hb is the crackpot here, followed by you.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

What if Poppy got poisoned by Corrik and he's Scum and he's staying quiet to avoid giving any extra info?

Actually really good theory this

Kirby321 posted...

I've been arguing with you this entire day! This is a dumb question. I really don't understand why Peaf thinks your logic has made any sense today.

Peaf has elaborated on why it makes sense

You have not on why it doesn't

If you had anything that doesn't make sense specifically you'd say it instead of "is posting like Kingmaker mafia" (I'm posting nothing like Kingmaker mafia)

Kirby321 posted...

I frankly don't have the time to go deep dive into a game from several months ago. Even if I did, you'd have to make a brand new topic with how many utterly useless posts there were in that first day of Kingmaker.

How many worthless posts would you estimate I've made this game?

Chang and Ben are generating content today. Read the Chang/Peaf letters. They have a silly coat of paint, but they're definitely an earnest attempt to digest things imo.

Han can you at least humor the people I'm looking into. Chang is not scum. Ben is not scum.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

He's getting increasingly aggressive, so maybe he wanted to change gears and act like he was town better, but couldn't keep up the act. Old habits die hard.

Lmao! Aggressive dog! Woof woof!!

Explain how this is like kingmaker with specific posts

Note Kirby still isn't calling me scum just doubling down on me sowing confusion to the point where I'm distracting

Kirby321 posted...

Seems like an ordinary Ctes. At the same time, though, I've never seen him as scum IIRC, so the possibility of it being a faade isn't impossible with how relatively low-key his posts kind of are.

Yup. Pretty much nothing

My mind goes to BCT, Ctes, Kirby, and Peaf on that list.

Think Ben and Sultan have played enough games to know better. The others are new or rusty

KH and a bunch of fighting games, Guilty Gear being the stand out of the lot. But Street Fighter is pretty bad too surprisingly.

Note also he happened to land on Hb's other suspect as his suspect

Convenient way to coordinate a scum wagon on town

But yeah. Han being town just makes a lot of sense. I think Corrik being the added kill fits that. Red being n1 kill is obvious as he town confirmed himself and was motivated. But the second kill not being Han or myself and instead Corrik implies we're both town imo as we both were active and mostly thought as town. That's not to say Corrik is not a good early kill target, but he doesn't lead towns till later generally.

Scumteam (correctly) surmised that me and Han would continue to go at it, nullifying our effectiveness.

And if Han is town, Kirby no longer gets a pass for continuing to insist I'm not making sense and being "busy" and pretending to look into Ctes. Note he tried to get me to give him an excuse not to by claiming I wanted him to dig on Ben-- I told him no, dig on Ctes. He gave us nothing on Ctes, then proceeded to dig on Ben.

Corrik was referring to the basic "is Han dead N1 or not" with respect to information. Not any sort of power role.

Kirby for pretending to look into Ctes and finding nothing, and not voting day 1, and for the aforementioned crackpotmongering

Hb for bailing out Ctes day 1 and for his ability making no sense

BCT doesn't really gain a lot of scum equity from Ctes's flip but do note he was on Sbell. Will dig into the sbell votes today.

I do not agree with it at all. Corrik is smart (smart player clearly saves motion detector for #3 as it is bad without upgrade-- poison upgrade is marginal) and Corrik likes to Yolo. Corrik also said last game he doesn't leave hints. (I correctly said he Roshan hunted Poppy, but he vehemently denied his vote was a hint)

If one of those 4 is town it's BCT and BCT is doing the "everyone who suspects me is scum" gimmick

In which case it's probably Poppy but Poppy dies from Poison tonight so all good there.

Ctes
Kirby
BCT
Hb

Between these 4, you've got the entirety of the "Lopen doesn't make sense" force. And none of it is grounded in anything. My thoughts have by and large made sense this game.

Even Han hasn't said I don't make sense. He has said I'm biased. Very well Han. I apologize. I was wrong to think you're scum. You are clearly flustered town that I flustered. Scum Han probably spins me being scum by this point and isn't trying to consolidate the lynch still playing the part of "the guiding hand"

I come to think why did I let Kirby and BCT off the hook? Because I thought Han pocketed them. But if Han is town he clearly isn't pocketing them, and they've never really looked good. Han has dropped the lead-- probably because I'm throwing him off. But I'm throwing him off because he's toothless. It's an awful cycle.

We will look back into these people today. But Han officially in Lopen's book of town. I apologize.

Solid argument for lynching Ctes is vanilla town doesn't hold off on claiming vanilla town that hard when they're in contention for lynch

That was scum being scared of claiming

Solid argument for lynch Ctes is Sbell doesn't gain traction out of nowhere if scum is ok with the lynch

Solid argument for Ctes is he keeps making excuses for inactivity

But you're just going to call this crackpot lol. It's better than any case you've made this game though.

ViolentAbacus posted...

In regards to Sultan, how does it needlessly draw attention anymore than what we're saying HB did? Regardless, I am still of the opinion that there is a possibility Sultan could have thrown a vote to save face & have a way to bus a teammate. IF HB would only claim his role, I would be more likely to believe this than HB moving his vote away.

Sultan's vote was irrelevant to the lynch fate and was cast so late that it didn't matter and was on ctes, Hb's on the other hand was pivotal in deciding the lynch and got sbell lynched.

MacArrowny posted...

Mega Man 8 in the side bracket finals is a big oof.

100%. Been anti-voting it basically every round.

PunishedBen posted...

intentionally trying to slander me, and I'm starting to think it's the latter.

Can we stop. You're both town.

Red n1 kill regularly has me think Han yes.

HOWEVER this game red was an obvious n1 kill no matter who is on the team. He was motivated and basically town confirmed.

Minion

Mario

HanOfTheNekos posted...

What to do with Abacus is probably prod Hb for a more clear claim, and kick Abacus's butt into giving us more attention.

Please

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Ctes's flip gives the most information w/ regards to yesterday.

Ctes, your job is to convince us that it'd be better to lynch someone else.

And yes, we need a few more bodies in here.

Great pro-town thinking! I concur!

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Lopen, switch to Ctes.

Great!

##Unvote:
##Vote: Ctes

Currently

BCT's vote is worthless
Sultan's vote is worthless
Ben's vote is worthless
Han's vote is worthless

Extremely weak attempts to build cases on any of their vote targets from those 4 today.

Hb is scum. Kirby has probably the best vote in the game because at least it's on someone with a vote and has justification. Too bad Kirby is voting for town because he can't get over the idea that I'm faking crackpot ideas because he doesn't understand what I'm saying (open your eyes, dude, multiple people are saying I'm making sense)

Like what on earth is Ben even doing. A vote on Chang with no justification? What are you hoping to accomplish?

Like this is not how you play mafia

You need pressure to generate content

Someone get ANYONE to -2. Why are so many votes uncast? Why is everyone splitting everything. We have great data from yesterday? You can't all be scum. Hell throw some more votes on me if I have to be the one. Just do SOMETHING.

PunishedBen posted...

##Vote: Chang

Chang my mind

What's your theory for the end of yesterday. Do you think it was town/town? If so why does the wagon on Sbell materialize out of pretty much nowhere.