Lurker > Lopen

EDumey posted...

If they were genuinely put together by a Neighborizer and we aren't making assumptions about their alignments, do you still think not discussing JC as cult leader is a tell?

No, but this didn't happen

If someone is town neighborizer who put them together they should claim

htaeD posted...

it doesnt feel like its even about the cult anymore.

It was never about the cult

It's about whether Han's and Chang's thought processes make more sense from the perspective of concerned town trying to solve the game, or scum gambit to spread fear about a cult and town confirm one of Chang or Han.

Saying "we should humor JC as cult leader" -- the key to that thread is not to prove that JC IS the cult leader, just to say it should have been part of the discussion. Han responding to so much of what I'm saying and multiple town saying I've been recruited by JC is a sign that yes there is a reason to at least humor it and it isn't ridiculous.

changmas posted...

because you know, the fact that nobody else seems to want to chime in about something else might suggest that a coordinated scum team of 4 would be completely okay with idling by while the same thing is discussed for hours upon hours. This is how the logic works about such things, eh Lopen?

This is completely misrepresenting my point by the way and I think a town Chang who isn't out to discredit me doesn't go this way

Players idling at the end of the day is not at all the same as players idling at a random point in the day with over 24 hours left

Players idle in the middle of days all the time

HanOfTheNekos posted...

The only way in which Lopen ever has this sort of certainty about a Scum team is if he is on Cult and knows that Cult didn't send in a kill.

This is patently false by the way

I am not certain there is a scum team

I am saying YOU being so certain there ISN'T one doesn't fit in your range of town logic.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I'll entertain JC as Cult Leader theory and you stop intentionally trolling me by saying "Town Han would never do this arbitrary thing". Deal?

No deal

I don't care if you think JC could possibly be Cult Leader. I'm just saying he probably is.

What you would probably do or wouldn't do as town is vital to whether you come off as scummy. You reducing the game to not possible to just be Town vs Scum vs Cult feels ridiculous and more like something I'd do. It simply is too far fetched to be something you'd reduce the game to without some ulterior motive to do so.

So no deal.

Peace___Frog posted...

Calling anything a "most likely setup" at this point in time requires a lot of extra knowledge about the game that has not been shared publicly

This criticism can equally be levied against Han and Chang here.

changmas posted...

HB came to the same conclusion we did

But with such conviction that he outright ruled out the possibility of JC as cult leader? I don't think so.

Hbthebattle posted...

Lopen, can we be 100% sure there's even a traditional scum team in this game, and not just the cult?

He said it's possible there is just cult, which yes I agree, it's possible. CERTAINTY it's just cult is not in Han's wheelhouse tbh. He tends to react more like...

Leafeon13N posted...

Yes.

BTW Han never makes that leap with such confidence unless he had some sort of benefit to make that leap

IE he is scum and he wants to confuse town into thinking there isn't an actual scumteam in the game

Yes, it's a possibility to consider, but to just rule out a scumteam as a possibility entirely? No way. Is literally anyone else in the game other than Han and Chang actually doing that?

Ability: You have no idea what the fuck a Moebius is. Is that some new kind of gender? Because of this, you are immune to being recruited by any cults.

TOWN, and are united against their common enemy - Moebius.

Like are you seriously saying that this description of his ability, which could very well just be flavor, is decisive evidence that Moebius = cult = scum? That's a terrible leap.

I'm gonna be honest

I'd sooner expect cult is a total red herring and it's traditional 5 scum team than no scum team and just cult

The way yesterday played out doesn't fit cult setup-- if literally everyone in game is town aside from cult leader more people are fighting against that plum lynch. No doubt in my mind. Townie getting pushed out to 5, rolling over, and no one fighting against it aside from some token lipservice, that's a game that has a scumteam in it that isn't really caring who gets lynched.

Plum's flip said nothing of the sort. Please explain. Do you think Plum is bulletproof?

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Host said Town was vs Cult

No he didn't. If he did we would have discussed cult before Plum

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I'm not leaning into it, I'm saying it requires a lot more than you want to think is possible.

And so you think JC, Chang, and I are all a 3 person Cult team that willingly fakeclaimed that one of us would be dead day 4, and willingly fakeclaimed being neighborized?

Why?

Do you really think... Scratch that. Does somebody who doesn't just make up fantasies and accept them as true really think there is a strategic point to that?

It's so convoluted on every angle.

Here is the most likely setup

4 Man Scum
1 Man Cult

JC is cult

Scum is you, Chang, Death, red

This entire neighborizer thing is a multipronged gambit with you and chang with two objectives

1. Put fear of cult into town and make town ignore possibilities of scum + cult
2. Town clear one of you when the other is lynched

This is more consistent with your personality than the idea that you had a lengthy discussion on game setup with Chang. Chang should have neighbored me. I could buy us talking about that. You? No way. Doesn't fit your mafia solving personality-- you're more like what red was saying earlier-- "silly third party talk"

Getting big vibes that Death and Han are trying to steer me here

This logic thread is not about whether JC is cult leader
This is about whether JC should have been discussed as cult leader

Given that, using setups you supposedly discussed, I am able to find reasons for JC to play cult leader as he has, JC as cult leader SHOULD be just a logical thing to touch on

But it was supposedly not touched on? No way. No way.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

"Lynching me is not so bad because it washes out as a no lynch" is that not what JC's words were?

If JC is 3P solo cult with 4 scum team I think this kinda mindset is fine. A lot of people as third party tend to not care all that much about what happens and kinda yolo.

Anyway the key here is not whether he is or isn't cult, but whether it's natural you and Chang did not even consider the possibility here. I simply don't buy it if there was discussion about the cult. The fact that you're starting to lead into it now shows that there is meat to it and it would make sense to touch on it. I also believe Chang would have brought it up as he tends to find my insight on game setup interesting and I brought it up end of day 1 in a highly visible location.

htaeD posted...

seems like JC was drawing attention to himself. Maybe he didnt plan to unleash the claim day1, but he did plan to get attention.

I disagree he did this whatsoever

People were not talking about his breadcrumbs. He got suspicion for things unrelated to his claim, then had an itchy trigger finger on his breadcrumbs.

He got suspicion for reacting weird about his early game shitposting (claiming scum with plum, then feeling a need to rescind his claim) among other things. His stuff that was breadcrumb relevant didn't really get him any heat.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

If it's only Cult as Scum, then why would a Cult JC be afraid of dying? It's a nonsensical play.

JC as cult recruiter, 3 uses
2 person cult to start the game

For example

Alternative example
JC as cult recruiter, 3 uses
4 man scum team

It works exceptionally well if JC needs to get off his cult recruitments and they're limited use

htaeD posted...

JC was setting up his claim long before you talked about him.

You can set up without intent to USE immediately, that's my point.

It was a contingency if he got heat-- but the problem was setting it up means he had an itchy trigger finger to use it when the opportunity arose

JC didn't draw attention to himself at all

He was met with attention based on things unrelated to his claim, and let out his claim fortified by the breadcrumbs he'd laid immediately like some sort of frightened sea creature

It was a contingency should he get spotlight before day 3, not his plan

htaeD posted...

Is JC even the kind if guy who would expect to die in 3 days?

JC would absolutely consider himself being lynched within the first 3 days. It fits his opinion of his own play-- my evidence is his reaction to being mentioned as a special last game.

Also

The fact that you're saying that's idiot when it's an excellent play for JC if he only has 3 shots (limited use cult leader is literally something Chang said you had discussed) is disingenuous.

Okay so I guess the game is full of idiots then

Oh and most importantly

EXPLAIN WHY JC AS CULT LEADER WAS NOT DISCUSSED.

Like holy crap. That's the smoking gun more than perhaps anything. I know you probably wouldn't go into that because I brought it up, but Chang absolutely would if he was truly having a discussion about who cult leader is that isn't prefaced with "we roleblocked JC so great, who is cult leader if not him" or "well scummate JC, who is cult leader?"-- again, we have MULTIPLE people saying I've been recruited by Cult Leader JC and Plum himself saw merit in the idea yesterday. Two random town mulling over cult leader possibilities not even bringing it up at all? It's utterly ridiculous.

5tarscream posted...

Can we kill chang today or does it absolutely have to be Han first?

I think Han is more suspicious than Chang outside of this claim and if Chang flips scum neighbor Han is much more likely to be able to argue out of it into a false town confirm

I would feel MUCH safer lynching Han first, not because I don't think either one is significantly more likely to be scum (they're both scum) but because I think Han could more likely argue out of getting lynched (especially if I'm killed tonight) and that Chang is more likely to be the scum neighborizer of the two. (I don't think Han agrees to a gambit like this if the expected outcome is that he dies first-- that's a more downside play)

HanOfTheNekos posted...

(like, I am very vocal about not respecting Red's play; how in the hell do you make up that he's a likely kill if I'm Scum?)

You are very vocal about not respecting Red's EARLY game play. As scum you prioritize killing him early because 1. He's not a doc save early. 2. You know he's good at the game IF allowed to live to endgame (but is lazy as hell early to the point of being a liability)

I know for a fact you were saying we should kill him even if Peaf wasn't (I must be thinking of dead town chat or something-- I just know I've seen you say Peaf is good at the game somewhere)

Here is my one post for you my friend.

Explain to us

Why do you think Chang is town
Why do you think Cult was the most prudent thing to discuss
Why do you think sharing town/scum reads with the game is BAD
Why do you think neighborizer is a strong role and that it staying concealed provides more material
Why do you think

Explain clearly, for us, since you were so clearly invested in this cult, details in this conversation you and Chang had basically. I want to know everything you guys talked about from your perspective, because it sounds dreadfully like Chang is copying details of a chat from scumboard and then not providing any details beyond literal scumboard conversation because he wasn't able to get you to talk

Go into detail on the supposed math you discussed, why you found discussion on cult mechanics to be interesting (this sounds very unlike Han-- this sounds like a Chang thing that would utterly bore Han)

tl;dr - Elaborate on the discussion you and Chang had in great exhaustive detail. Leave nothing out. This is my final request and answering it in a convincing way the only way I will ever stop hounding you and Chang. Because the whole supposed conversation you had stinks and feels way more like a gambit than actual town play. Too many logic jumps, too much stuff that was out of character.

And bonus question if you think it is ok to indulge me
Why did you feel it necessary to throw your vote around yesterday late in the day when you had claimed plum was scum (cfwr-- why would it even be necessarily cfwr by the way, that feels like a slip by someone who knows the alignment of JC)

No. 2/2. I started calling you scum in one but came around on you as town before you died.

Actually I've correctly called you town the past two games we've both been town.

Your narrative is false.

Also I think I have pretty legitimate gripes here and Han not acknowledging me whatsoever is a tell not Han trying to avoid being distracted as town. He's faking not wanting to address me because he doesn't want me to catch him-- this is not "usual Lopen nonsense" you've got a lot of people saying I'm making sense right now.

Han ignoring me is something he would do as town, yes-- but if things I'm saying are actually resounding with people, he would address them.

Big_Bob posted...

Me: *plays a Mr. Negative Deck, has Mr. Negative in hand*
Location Reveals: The Peak (all cards swap power and cost)
Me: *immediately snaps*
Opponent: *counter snaps*
Me: *plays Mr. Negative, Iron Man, and Wolfsbane on Muir Island, Angela on empty location*
Opponent: *retreats*

Really just dropping Negative + 0-1 of those makes the opponent more likely to be willing to play it out. You would lose some matches to leech but overall you'd make a lot more cubes.

Hbthebattle posted...

Wouldnt Chang being the neighborizer somewhat explain the insistence that they dont claim?

Somewhat.

But Chang not suspecting a Han who supposedly devoted most of the discussion to cult leader hunting is very strange. The whole supposed conversation stinks.

Han scum Chang town never happens unless there is actually a third person who neighborized them (which is completely weird as a role and honestly not very useful-- which is why Chang insisting its so good is weird) or Chang is town neighborizer. No way does Han ever neighborize town as scum he's too smart for that.

Peace___Frog posted...

What evidence do you have for this? The only time I've been killed overnight in the modern Mafia era was by our beloved host. He could sheep and pocket me, as he's been trying to do, and save his kill for other targets.

Scum chats. I'm fairly certain the recent game me and Han were both scum Han was mentioning you as a kill often.

Anyway like, who cares. I'm not going to lynch you for it nor push for your lynch. We lynch Han, we lynch Chang, we lynch Red before you on similar logic-- if you're still alive then, then we consider what you've done over the course of the game well before nightkill meta.

EDumey posted...

I think they were definitely neighborized, but that doesn't mean much for their alignments other than their reads on each other.

The main reason I think it's a gambit is the following

1. Chang was unable to share any thoughts about who Han and he considered town or scum. It was literally all discussion about cult he shared with town. Note also Han was not present.
2. Chang says they reached the conclusion they were both town
3. Chang is very insistent that this so called town neighborizer is a very powerful role (it's not) and should not claim (it should)
4. Chang when pressed about literally every point I asked about insisted he made the point. To me this is suspicious because Han and probably Chang know I am "paranoid" of Han and as such would be more likely to trust points Chang made.
5. Han choosing to devote a neighborizer session entirely to discussion of cult doesn't feel in Han's wheelhouse. Han would be more interested in scum/town reads were he having a discussion, not a huge third party tangent. (unless he was scum)
6. A huge cult discussion and JC isn't even humored at all despite it being mentioned prominently near end of day? When snap reads of multiple town to start the day was "JC is cult leader, Lopen was recruited." Really?

There are SO MANY weird things about this supposed discussion, and when mapped with Han's behavior late yesterday it paints a very clear picture. I do think Han as scum thinks he has a limited lifespan due to the "why haven't scum shot him yet" and this is very much something I could see him being on board with.

Peace___Frog posted...

You think they're scum and actually went through with faking the conversation?

I disagree entirely that han has respect for my play. We barely interacted yesterday, other than him asking me a question and not really following up iirc. He was in my list of suspects coming into today if he was alive, largely due to how he reacted to plum and igcd.

I'm talking about in general. You're a high priority Han kill when he's scum. He respects your game smarts and you're reasonably active

And no I'm not saying they "faked" a conversation I'm saying he's just relaying scum board discussion relevant to the cult leader, and he can't fake anything related to town and scum reads because.. it's scum board discussion.

I will say I believe IGCD is town mostly because that feels like a weird safelist role and wouldn't be a scum role name, followed by his lackadaisical attitude about claiming and the fake shot. It's not a lot bit really don't see the case on him as scum. If he's scum well played

Chaeix posted...

Hey Lopen humour me, what would your read of the game be if I flipped town

Han and Chang still locks for scum

At that point probably scum framer. Don't think Ulti suicide into cult leader as scum makes sense if Han and Chang are doing what they're doing. So wouldn't lynch Ulti.

Scum bomb is a banned role here. Pretty unlikely

Town
3. Edumey
8. Sbell
9. Hb
11. Corrik
12. IGCD
13. 5starscream

Conspiracy Theories are fun but probably town
6. Ulti

Scum
1. Han
14. Chang

Feels Weird They'd Be Alive With Scum Han
10. Red (note Han hasn't pushed him)
2. Peaf (passive play on the whole)
5. Death (Han approved kill if doc is feared)

Note Corrik could be in this list too but I think he was assumed doc target-- Death being town would also make Corrik less likely to be targeted.

Cult Leader or Scum
4. Chaeix

Han Chang Red Peaf JC as the bad actors is gaining more weight in my head as I put this list here.

I think they're both town but if one is scum it's probably Peaf. Peaf has a lot of respect from Han and has been reasonably active. Hard to imagine he's been allowed to live.

Dumey has seemed like he's more honestly taking a crack at actually solving the game to me-- yes he's focused on weird things but I think I trust him as town pretty well at the moment.

And yes I agree Sultan obviously didn't send a scan to Ulti I was floating that to see if anyone would bite to catch a lie.

16 player game absolutely. Maybe two more.

We definitely don't just have Sultan. Sultan is a weak scanner

The other possibility JC never came up is because scumteam blocked JC like I said and Chang is overcorrecting or scumteam had been trying to say "well what if it isn't JC"

I really do think cult leader JC makes more sense than scum JC but either way he's the lynch for today. Ulti just being cop is making more sense here.

I'm just saying you must lynch Han tomorrow. Too many red flags. And then when Han flips scum, do NOT clear Chang for it.

5tarscream posted...

I'm just sceptical that someone thought you were such a lock as town over several other players. Maybe that's just me though because I think you're scum still.

You're right to be skeptical. Chang and Han are likely both scum. One is neighborizer. We saw a few games ago scum neighborizer used on town and it just got said neighborizer caught. So Han being smart said "well we aren't using this ability on town" and instead used the role existing as a gambit tool. The idea is if one flips it clears the other one.

The problem is Chang delved into the details of the conversation too much. I don't think Han is focusing a discussion on cult leader mechanics unless he's scum. While Chang may think that's a hoot Han tends to focus on finding scum and doesn't really care all that much about third party talk. The idea that they had an at length discussion about this and not about town/scum reads is hard to believe

That JC never came up as a possibility for cult leader when you have multiple people in topic (and in fact are saying I've been recruited) is telling. The most obvious explanation is this is a slip and JC is in fact scum and he's simply using scum chat details to make his lie realistic-- JC was never considered because JC is also scum who Ulti scanned.

changmas posted...

we did not discuss JC as the cult recruiter possibility at all

I find this hard to believe considering it was brought up end of day and even plum saw some sense to it

I disagree entirely that a town neighboring that forces two people they don't know the alignments of into a chat is terribly useful

In fact I think such a role if town should claim. I think that gives vastly more solving material

changmas posted...

The most likely conclusion we came to was that a different town member put us together to try and have us work together

Who suggested this one?

Can you name a single or multiple theories attributable to Han?

So here was my theory on setup

1. Cult leader single, max 3 recruits, recruits every night. This fits perfectly with JC's gambit. Once we kill him for lying he's thrown his recruits out so he's in position to win despite being lynched.
2. Traditional scum team. Probably 4 strong. Don't really think solo cult team makes sense.

Who threw out the only cult team theory no scum. You or Han?

Hey Chang who started talk about cult you or Han

So theorycraft for me how cult only works

Kill odd nights recruit even start with 2 or what?

changmas posted...

Would one or both of you be kind to lay this out for me? I feel like the combination of Plum's flip and the opening post of Topic 1 STRONGLY suggests Moebius = Scum = Cult.

The gameplay. If it's just cult as bad Faction we don't just idle at end of d1 when plum is dead to rights

Too many people were content to just sit there meaning you had to have people teamed. If just cult leader then less people are teamed so more panic . Also there was a night kill doesn't cult just recruit.