Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic Episode 446: The Empire Strikes Back

(+) Yeah! (+)

I was pretty sure Trump was going to win ever since the post-debate stuff that lead to Biden dropping out. I had some hope for Harris, but never enough to think she was the favorite at any point-- mostly just felt a lot of dread. But honestly, looking the results, I don't think this was winnable even if different decisions were made as far back as 2020.

Inflation was always gonna kill the democratic candidate, no matter who it was. Basically nothing Harris or Trump did or said really mattered.

VintageGin posted...

But honestly, looking the results, I don't think this was winnable even if different decisions were made as far back as 2020.

If Biden had found a way to prevent corporations from price gouging with the excuse of the pandemic everyone would have hated him for it, but it would have helped with inflation...

Its been said in here before but the different decision in 2020 that would have changed the outcome in 2024 was to lose back then. Democrats won the wrong election.

But yeah theres a path back from this, for a bit of optimism. Just have to hold on and hope the checks and balances hold. Theres always a path back.

If I was looking for things to be optimistic about Trump won all seven of the swing states, but five of those states had senate elections and democrats somehow won 4 out of 5 of them. That's even with a terrible swing against democrats and against incumbent parties worldwide. Three of those wins were women, too.

Again, this was an awful cycle for democrats and they got their teeth kicked in. But you would kind have expected it to be worse all things considered.

Suprak_the_Stud posted...

If I was looking for things to be optimistic about Trump won all seven of the swing states, but five of those states had senate elections and democrats somehow won 4 out of 5 of them. That's even with a terrible swing against democrats and against incumbent parties worldwide. Three of those wins were women, too.

Again, this was an awful cycle for democrats and they got their teeth kicked in. But you would kind have expected it to be worse all things considered.

A lot of it was people coming out for Trump and then not voting down ballot.

Fucking cult.

hockeydude15 posted...

I still believe there will be enough face eating in the next 4 years that Dems can win against a non Trump candidate, just in time for all the consequences of the Trump administration to really hit the country.

It won't even take that long, honestly. We'll start feeling the effects early 2025.

LightningStrikes posted...

Democrats won the wrong election.

I disagree with this, because even after
Trump attempting a coup, getting charged with felonies, FBI raid etc. it proved that Americans simply are morally bankrupt and are selfish, uneducated idiots. I'm glad it's out and exposed for the whole world to see.

LightningStrikes posted...

The thing is, by the standards of a sitting government in a 2024 election the Democrats did not actually do that badly. They saw a roughly 6% swing against them. By contrast the then-sitting government in the UK election saw a 22% national swing against them (actually bigger if you look at the individual seats). Heres what a 22% swing from 2020 looks like in a US election:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/7V0pg

Absolute disaster, if that happened it could be an extinction level event for the Democrats. I think that was averted, and if Trump doesnt end US Democracy the Democrats can recover, probably quite quickly too. Unlike a lot of those other countries, the Democratic base is still broadly intact, though damaged.

I think the US is too polarized for a 22 point swing to be possible. 2008, in the middle of the financial crisis, with a historically unpopular sitting president, was a 9 point swing.

Part of that might be the tendency for the UK to have ultra long cycles due to the incumbent party getting to choose when to hold elections. The Tories were in power for 14 years, and Labour were in power for 13 before that, and then another 17(?) for the Tories before that? Unthinkably long times by US standards.

If the US president could call elections, I guess Trump probably calls one in 2019 and wins in a landslide. But then he's stuck with being president for the whole pandemic and all its consequences. He still prints trillions of dollars but he is still president when the inflation hits. So he delays as long as possible but probably loses in 2023 (with a 4 year max term) or 2024 (with a 5 year max term).

Also it won't be an extinction level event for the Tories regardless of how many voters they lose to Labour unless they start losing a significant number of seats to the Brexit/Reform/UKIP or similar party. Centrist voters can always snap back to the conservative party but if a different conservative party is the top conservative party, then that one is where the votes will go.

This is also basically impossible in the US because of midterms every two years and general elections every four years instead of five.

However I dont know if its true that the US is too inflexible to have such a swing. When you look at these elections happening around the world you see swings bigger than ever recorded before. Voters who should be part of the base are abandoning their historical parties. The Tories are an obvious comparison since were talking about them already. They got their worst result in their 300 year history and the biggest drop of support ever recorded for any party (by comparison the UKs post-recession 2010 election was an 8% swing so similar to the US movement). You can see similar around the world. In South Africa the ANC which was so dominant post-apartheid lost nearly a third of its voters. This is not normal volatility there are some pretty seismic upheavals happening.

Looking at it I do think such an upheaval can happen in the US. If anything this result has made me believe that. However I dont think Trump is the guy to get such a result because a lot of people turn out against him as well as for him.

HeroicCrono posted...

Also it won't be an extinction level event for the Tories regardless of how many voters they lose to Labour unless they start losing a significant number of seats to the Brexit/Reform/UKIP or similar party. Centrist voters can always snap back to the conservative party but if a different conservative party is the top conservative party, then that one is where the votes will go.

To be clear I didnt say it was and dont really think that (but not ruling it out either). However dont be so hasty to assume that realignments cant happen. The Liberals used to be one of the two dominant parties and got relegated to near irrelevance. Now you can see a situation where the Liberals get their revenge and replace the Tories, not Reform. But I dont think either is likely just yet.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I didn't exist in the 1980s but historically speaking how could Reagan be the worst thing as opposed to William Henry Harrison, James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Warren G. Harding, Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, George W. Bush, and even Trump himself? Heck, what about most of the 19th century Presidents, William Howard Taft, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, and George H. W. Bush?

What lasting effects do you know of from any of those guys? Like, Trump is still debatable and obviously I'm going to call him the worst one. Reagan at least came from the generation of Republicans that spoke with some decorum. But his economic policies ruined this country and it has never really recovered.

LightningStrikes posted...

Just have to hold on and hope the checks and balances hold

Checks and balances are crippled. They need to heal, not just hold. And they certainly won't.

However, the country is extremely resilient due to largely federated powers (even with the massive centralization recently) so that is how we have survived.

v_charon posted...

What lasting effects do you know of from any of those guys?

Lots of those guys left lasting effects, but I especially want to shout-out Buchanan, who drove the country straight into civil war. One of the few presidents who might be worse than Reagan.

And Trump has eagerly revealed his list of "criminals" to investigate.

...Or really just "these people were mean to me/more popular than me waaaaaaaaaaaaaaah":

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1855625057663328298

Good luck, because none of these are going anywhere. More likely than not, this just invites more trouble for him.

I'm sure Obama is thankful that free rent is still on the table in these approaching trying times.

they're gonna keep begging for money for the legal fees, that'll be fun

Just to ask, do Presidents keep Secret Service protection after leaving office? I read somewhere theyre not allowed to drive or even be on public roads.

AuraChannelerCh posted...

And Trump has eagerly revealed his list of "criminals" to investigate.

...Or really just "these people were mean to me/more popular than me waaaaaaaaaaaaaaah":

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1855625057663328298

Good luck, because none of these are going anywhere. More likely than not, this just invites more trouble for him.

On a fun note, Trumps tax reforms from his first term led to Disney saving ~$6 billion in taxes. With the recent feud between Bob Iger and Ike Perlmutter, who is close with Trump, I wonder how Trumps relationship with Disney will be this time.

It's less about those specific people and more of a warning to anyone else

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Just to ask, do Presidents keep Secret Service protection after leaving office? I read somewhere theyre not allowed to drive or even be on public roads.

Yes, former Presidents get Secret Service. Same with their spouses.

I know its more about the people hed have do the job, but theres nothing intimidating at all about Trumps near 80 year old makeup wearing obese ass

Yeah Trump the individual still doesnt scare me. His enablers are the real problem and now he has more!

It's just amazing to me the self-own that Republican voters habitually go for.

I live in a red state where abortion was banned. Well, my hardcore Trumper cousin (Latino, this is even more ridiculous) has a son who got a girl pregnant. Both were 17 years old at the time and obviously couldn't afford it. My cousin had to fly his son to a blue state to get an abortion.

Doesn't matter to him, though. Still thinks abortion should be illegal, still votes Trump and is a proud MAGAt.

The lack of intelligence, self-awareness, logic in these people is something else.

DoctorPiranha3 posted...

It's just amazing to me the self-own that Republican voters habitually go for.

I live in a red state where abortion was banned. Well, my hardcore Trumper cousin (Latino, this is even more ridiculous) has a son who got a girl pregnant. Both were 17 years old at the time and obviously couldn't afford it. My cousin had to fly his son to a blue state to get an abortion.

Doesn't matter to him, though. Still thinks abortion should be illegal, still votes Trump and is a proud MAGAt.

The lack of intelligence, self-awareness, logic in these people is something else.

So they think abortions should be illegal but has no problem utilizing them because they are convenient?... I don't fucking get it, like what drives these people to think like this.

"Fuck you, got mine"

IfGodCouldDie posted...

So they think abortions should be illegal but has no problem utilizing them because they are convenient?... I don't fucking get it, like what drives these people to think like this.

Surprisingly not uncommon to see people this stupid, unfortunately I'm related to one of them. He's so brainwashed it's sad. Doesn't live in reality.

Federal abortion ban is coming and there's going to be a lot of suffering.

MAGA is a special breed of stupid thats for sure. I mean some were that stupid before it, but wow did he amplify it for a lot of people. Funny how theres no cries of elections being rigged by the right wingers when their cult leader wins, but if he loses its guaranteed stolen even with no proof.

Been seeing posts on Reddit lately by people claiming Elon helped rigged the election this time though. Whether theres any proof of that I guess is one thing, but it will depend on if anything is done even IF there is and I kinda doubt it given how much America lets slide.

Elon is not competent enough to steal an election and leave no definitive trace.

A lot of people believe the Trump rhetoric that it should be decided by states and claim they don't have any moral objection to abortion.

I don't actually know why that makes sense to anyone but yeah. I've definitely heard that stance from people and I believe they believe it.

kevwaffles posted...

Elon is not competent enough to steal an election and leave no definitive trace.

Who says there needs to be no definitive trace? He knows there's no real consequences for his actions.

DoctorPiranha3 posted...

My cousin had to fly his son to a blue state to get an abortion.

Wait isn't this against the law in a few states?

Lopen posted...

A lot of people believe the Trump rhetoric that it should be decided by states and claim they don't have any moral objection to abortion.

The rhetoric is that they think Trump is pro states rights, as long as those states align with him lol

IfGodCouldDie posted...

So they think abortions should be illegal but has no problem utilizing them because they are convenient?... I don't fucking get it, like what drives these people to think like this.

selfishness

THEY have good reasons, it's those other people who are bad

Lopen posted...

A lot of people believe the Trump rhetoric that it should be decided by states and claim they don't have any moral objection to abortion.

People just love the idea of small government. The issue doesn't matter, they'd prefer leaving literally everything up to the states rather than the federal government. If there was a movement suggesting abortion rights should be decided at the county/municipal level, people would support that instead.

I mean I will say the people I've talked to about this live in New Mexico so they know even if it does go State level it doesn't do anything here, so I'm inclined to believe them.

I actually agree with small government having more power in some cases I just think that restricting someone's power to do what they want to do isn't really the place for government of any size unless you're actually criminalizing something (which abortion isn't considered even in the case of states getting power, nor should it be)

For Trump, it's a very convenient political position - it allows him to stay out of a very touchy subject where he could lose support no matter what position he takes (for national ban or national legalization).

Concerningly, he is demanding that the Senate (which will be R controlled) go into recess so he can make recess appointments so his appointees don't have to go through the Senate confirmation process. All the leading contenders for Senate majority leader now that Mitch McConnell is retiring seem to be indicating they agree with this.

https://twitter.com/canteverdie/status/1855989724474642891?s=46&t=v9nzYLLBIiNYrqldFs9NWQ

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://twitter.com/canteverdie/status/1855989724474642891?s=46&t=v9nzYLLBIiNYrqldFs9NWQ

You don't need to agree with them, and you may think a lot of these reasons are dumb, but there's a lot of valuable feedback that the Democratic party can pull from here for their next election.

Which they won't, of course.

swordz9 posted...

.

Been seeing posts on Reddit lately by people claiming Elon helped rigged the election this time though. Whether theres any proof of that I guess is one thing, but it will depend on if anything is done even IF there is and I kinda doubt it given how much America lets slide.

People are stupid and think electronic voting is a thing.

Pretty much every state prints a paper ballot which is then counted by a disconnected system.

There is nothing to this.

Leafeon13N posted...

People are stupid and think electronic voting is a thing.

Pretty much every state prints a paper ballot which is then counted by a disconnected system.

There is nothing to this.

Theres nothing to it, but I think its fair to point out that if say, George Soros provided internet for precincts when Harris won the election, wed literally never hear the end of it.

Trump is gonna get us the money

Trump that dude meant Trump is gonna get himself some money and absolutely wreck the average American with his plans

PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

You don't need to agree with them, and you may think a lot of these reasons are dumb, but there's a lot of valuable feedback that the Democratic party can pull from here for their next election.

Which they won't, of course.

You can't fix wild ignorance with a better candidate so I'm not sure how you incorporate any of these dipshits' "feedback".

You can't really combat deep seeded hatred, widespread misinformation, and just general selfishness and ignorance. We're talking about a convicted felon here, he should have been removed from politics as soon as a coup attempt was happening.

This is a bubble that needs to collapse on itself. Unfortunately those of us who saw through the ruse will suffer as well, but the country as a whole is a lot more dark and evil than we gave it credit for, and more ignorant and selfish than we imagined.

it's hard to want our political leaders to listen to pure ignorant stupidity

I feel like there's a lot more Democrats can do putting out an actual message than adopting complete incoherence

Kenri posted...

You can't fix wild ignorance with a better candidate so I'm not sure how you incorporate any of these dipshits' "feedback".

Then why campaign at all then?

Just give up.

Just keep losing.

Keep dooming.

Don't look for anything that can be fixed or people that can be reached.

Just give up like losers and keep handing the presidency to Republicans.

A bunch of whiners who have nothing constructive to say and do nothing but complain and throw their hands up because they think nothing can be done.

It's not even worth me pointing out what tangible feedback can be taken from that because folks here won't listen to it and will continue to discount it.

So enjoy talking to each other here about how much you love to give up.

You actually can fix ignorance. But a demeanor that isn't condescending about it is the first step and I think that's above a lot of Democrats currently unfortunately.

I think the 2028 Dem primary is crucial, but it requires two things to occur that may or may not happen independent of one another.

1. Primary voters need to actually turn out and vote for an anti-establishment candidate. A Bernie Sanders candidate is great unless the voters say Nah, gimme that status quo.
2. On the flip side, if you are a Democratic politician and you want to run on maintaining the establishment and the status quodont fucking run. Because youll win the primary and depress turnout in the general.

Espeon posted...

I think the 2028 Dem primary is crucial, but it requires two things to occur that may or may not happen independent of one another.

1. Primary voters need to actually turn out and vote for an anti-establishment candidate. A Bernie Sanders candidate is great unless the voters say Nah, gimme that status quo.
2. On the flip side, if you are a Democratic politician and you want to run on maintaining the establishment and the status quodont fucking run. Because youll win the primary and depress turnout in the general.

Literally some of the feedback in that thread was "We want change" with a candidate who ran on not wanting to change a thing.

And people here would rather say "These are dipshits" rather than say "Maybe candidates should acknowledge things need to change."