Current Events > GOP with rare statewide lead in Nevada after 250,000 votes cast

(+) Yeah! (+)

Ralston's latest is "Dems cut into GOP lead a bit!"

People are just flipping for no reason

How do you think this is the "easiest election in history?"

And it does look like GOP voters are voting early this year so they most likely are blowing their load early. Election day will come down to who has the superior ground game.

And it does look like GOP voters are voting early this year so they most likely are blowing their load early. Election day will come down to who has the superior ground game.

This is the most likely thing and the most optimistic. Republicans have largely waited until election day to cast their votes. Trump has been telling them to get out and vote. The prevailing narrative out of this election cycle is 'this is the most consequential election ever, so make sure your voice is heard'. Early voting is paramount. They understand this and aren't waiting, as they shouldn't. Everybody needs to go as soon as they are able to. Too important not to.

Stop overreacting to early numbers for a state that gives out unreliable numbers and has a large unaffiliated vote. You're just embarrassing yourself.

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1849431497394344123

GOP's lead remains, but things will depends on how Indies break.

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1849431497394344123

GOP's lead remains, but things will depends on how Indies break.

You do realize that the GOP here is blowing their election day load early, right?

Once the majority of votes come in from Vegas and Reno/Sparks Kamala should win rather easily. Chuds jerking each other off in Carson City arent that big a deal.

I admit, Ive seen comments and explanations about this before, but its weird how Nevada has been hard to poll for so many elections now. What a mysterious state.

How do they have these numbers? I thought many states had laws where they couldn't start counting the early voting until election day?

They're basing it on how people are registered.

And aren't committing the unaffiliated/independents in either direction.

Unless it's 50/50 (unlikely from my understanding of Nevada), it's still easily in play

Unaffiliateds lean heavily Dem in Nevada.

And aren't committing the unaffiliated/independents in either direction.

Unless it's 50/50 (unlikely from my understanding of Nevada), it's still easily in play

Well, in NV, the answer is no. Only 2.4% of early voting GOPs are first time voters. Compare that to 8.5% at this point in 2020.

Turns out the GOP is cannibalizing their election day vote in NV. Tom Bonier has a good thread explaining it. He's one of the guys who tracks voter registration and NV Republicans are not turning out brand new voters.

https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849631021370667456?s=46

I have to suppress so many emotions when I see topics like this. Like, I understand we won't know the full results until the day of or within the following days after the election. And I also know the current vote counts are just tallies of ballots submitted by party and not actual counts of votes for any specific candidate. But despite *knowing* this I still get anxiety when I see "GOP in the lead".

1. Just vote and do what you can. Phonebank, canvass, etc. if it helps.
2. Remember that a lot of these are clickbait. There is every real reason to believe the GOP is cannibalizing its own votes and Democrats are actually winning because Independents aren't being properly counted when they're skewing disproportionately Democratic.
3. There is no reason to suspect that Nevada's senate race is in danger. Jackie Rosen is plus 9 points on average ahead of Brown. Add that to Nevada being Democratic for 20 years, and having voted against Trump twice before?

This is why I have such a hard time trusting guys like Nate Silver

Bump; going into this last week, the issue for Dems here seems to be that Clark dems are not turning out yet. R gains slow as they hit a ceiling from registration.

Good evening, blog mates.

Monday's numbers gave another large boost to Republicans, increasing their statewide ballot lead over Democrats to 40,000, or 5.7 percent. This has never happened, not even close, in The Reid Machine Era.

700,000 ballots have now been posted, so at least half the vote is in, perhaps a little more. And some trends seem to be embedded after 10 of 14 days. Note: The Tuesday of the second week also has traditionally been a good day for Republicans in in-person early voting. Monday's followed the 2020 pattern , with a GOP+4,000 result (actually slightly better than 2020).

The Republican turnout edge is now almost 8 percent, almost 9 percent in Clark. The usually reliable Clark Dem firewall has all but evaporated (2,800), the rural GOP firewall is at 37,000 and Washoe is also going well for the Repubs (+5,800).

I know people want to keep comparing this year to 2020 or 2022, but at the risk of repeating myself: This is a unicorn year. We have never seen this.

The Clark mail numbers are very puzzling. Fewer than 5,000 were processed today, bringing the total there to 234,000 ballots, which the Dems continue to win by large margins. The latest dump had the strangest configuration yet with Dems getting half the mail, Repubs just under 20 percent and indies at 30 percent. Republicans are now third (26 percent to indies (29 percent) and Dems (45 percent) in Clark mail.

But 234,000 is just over half of the total Clark ballots from 2020. Where is the mail? If it continues at this relatively snail 's pace, whether it is USPS delay or it will simply be way down for another reason, the Dems will need a huge margin with all those indies. Double digits, which seems unlikely. Dems need the volume of Clark mail to increase at the nearly 2-to-1 margins and meet or come close to the 2020 baseline or Trump is going to win Nevada, even if the Dems do well with indies

Still a lot of time, but Republicans have reason for confidence with this unprecedented turnout pattern.

Ralston said he was "seeng red" up to the final results in 2020. That he knows the system does not make him a good prognosticator. His guess isn't much better than yours or mine, the election is close.

This has never happened, not even close, in The Reid Machine Era.

Can we also acknowledge that ads about Trump's campaign calling Puerto Rico garbage and saying Mexicans breed out of control are blasting the airwaves in Spanish right now?

Trump's gains in Arizona and Nevada are supposedly with Latino men and uh...this really ain't good fo him.

Like, I'm just stressing anyone freaked for Nevada needs to remember that before COVID, early voters were primarily the elderly and that many who vote Democratic there are technically registered as independents. Combine this with the Reid Machine and how Nevada hasn't gone Red in 20 years...

There's no point stressing over it. Arizona is a much bigger battleground right now and Trump's campaign might have just shot itself in the leg

I do think we need to acknowledge that the Reid machine is gone. Nevada is still lean blue but it's not a certainty anymore and the Dems need to reinvest there to build it back up

Latest update - the situation hasn't really improved, but Ralston says it's not panic time yet.