Current Events > GOP with rare statewide lead in Nevada after 250,000 votes cast

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

For reference: Ralston is by far the most reliable source for Nevada early voting information and most of his predictions have shaken out. We're a ways away from a call, but there is no modern precedence for the GOP's current lead in votes banked in the state, and the vast majority of votes are tallied before election day in the state. It isn't critical to Harris winning the presidency in most scenarios, but it could signal trouble in demographically similar Sunbelt states and potential alarm bells for senate races.

Some summaries, though I recommend reading the blog:

The headline: Republicans lead statewide in Nevada after three days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era, which encompasses the races since 2008. This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here.

It's pretty easy to explain: The Clark firewall has all but collapsed (it's 4,500 votes) and the rurals are way overperforming their share of the electorate with what has been tabulated, nearly by 4 points -- almost all taken from Clark's share. The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting.

In case you have forgotten, turnout on Election Day 2020 was only 11 percent, and Republicans won by 11 points, or nearly 16,000 votes. Thats why the Dems building up a big statewide lead has been so important and helped them win presidential races for four straight cycles. Will the pattern hold this cycle? Will Election Day be a GOP landslide? Too early to tell.

The all-important Clark County firewall is under 9,000 votes, about a fourth of what it was in 2020 at this time. (Apples to oranges warning, but that is a big change.) This is what I wrote at this time in 2020: This year, after two days, 137,000 have cast mail and in-person ballots in Clark, and the lead is nearly double 2016 in raw numbers, although the percentages are not as different: 53 percent to 26 percent.

This is all a big contrast to Dems nearing firewall numbers needed to win PA and the lethargic returns from the GOP in that state so far. (https://x.com/blockedfreq < has good posts on PA)

Immigration I'm guessing is driving the votes there.

Cheater87 posted...

Immigration I'm guessing is driving the votes there.

If immigration supplants abortion as the #1 issue at the polls then President Trump and Project 2025 is a lock and we're royally fucked.

One positive way to spin this would be that more Republicans are motivated to vote for Harris over Trump, driving up overall Republican turnout.

Gonna need a handle of 151 on Nov 5 with the way this election is looking.

Rigged election

Bubbagump posted...

One positive way to spin this would be that more Republicans are motivated to vote for Harris over Trump, driving up overall Republican turnout.

Why would anyone believe something like that?

So we're fucked.....great....

Cry more, doomers.

ssjevot posted...

Why would anyone believe something like that?

I think it's more that Republicans voting for Harris are more common than Democrats voting for Trump, or at least perceived to be.

If Harris's appeals to Republicans, her campaigning with the Cheneys has paid off at all, it wouldn't be visible in the parry registration of early voters.

luigi33 posted...

Cry more, doomers.

This isn't dooming, it's actual voting data from a state that casts most of its votes before election day and has historically held Democratic because of a massive EV firewall advantage that offsets GOP favored turnout on election day proper. It's just objectively really bad news for Harris unless the pattern dramatically changes.

luigi33 posted...

Cry more, doomers.

I love how dedicated you are to being insufferable.

Ralston posting this is...not good.

However, there is still two weeks left until election day. Plenty of time for a correction.

Bad news but the race isn't over yet!

luigi33 posted...

Cry more, doomers.

This guy. As Trump is being sworn in, he'll still call us doomers for saying things aren't looking good.

Rurals outperforming indicates trump is going to get his turnout

Lol she's screwed

It blows my mind to see Nevada move anywhere close to Trump, no state was hit harder by Covid-19 than Nevada. Their entire state income is reliant on having the giant casinos filled with gamblers, and tourists.

It took them years to full recover after the pandemic did a great job of making a huge host of jobs in that state irrelevant for a long time.

The fact that Trump can run one of the worst campaigns ever, have as much baggage as he does, and has the most unpopular VP pick ever and yet still have a chance to win is infuriating.

Srk700 posted...

The fact that Trump can run one of the worst campaigns ever, have as much baggage as he does, and has the most unpopular VP pick ever and yet still have a chance to win is infuriating.

The rest of the world is watching and learning about democracy. They don't want American brand democracy anymore.

The two states that are actual tossups currently are Nevada and Michigan.

Basically whoever gets Michigan wins.

Anyone trying to draw any conclusions from this is in for a bad timeebecause the age distribution of early voters post-Covid means it looks nothing like the electorate.

Guys, look at the stats. A huge percent of the early voters skew older.

divot1338 posted...

The two states that are actual tossups currently are Nevada and Michigan.

Basically whoever gets Michigan wins.

Harris is polling some of the best in Michigan right now. Wisconsin seems the real question

Srk700 posted...

The fact that Trump can run one of the worst campaigns ever, have as much baggage as he does, and has the most unpopular VP pick ever and yet still have a chance to win is infuriating.

While yea, we need to vote for Harris because we cannot have Trump, I dont see how this election isnt the end of the Democrats being a viable party.

like how are you going to take the easiest election in history against some barely literate corpse, and turn it into a coin flip?

STOP THE COUNT!!!

caps

LeTigre posted...

While yea, we need to vote for Harris because we cannot have Trump, I dont see how this election isnt the end of the Democrats being a viable party.

like how are you going to take the easiest election in history against some barely literate corpse, and turn it into a coin flip?

How do you think this is the "easiest election in history?"

I really just have no idea how anyone can look at the amount of support Trump gets in the past two elections and conclude he's easy to beat. There is no "closing the deal." The fact is the GOP should be running away with it and it's a question of them losing because Trump is so hated, but he's still competitive because we don't have a democratic system.

LeTigre posted...

While yea, we need to vote for Harris because we cannot have Trump, I dont see how this election isnt the end of the Democrats being a viable party.

like how are you going to take the easiest election in history against some barely literate corpse, and turn it into a coin flip?

Tbf, this election would be a landslide victory for Harris if not for the electoral college grossly overrepresenting rural, middle-of-nowhere communities.

LightSnake posted...

Harris is polling some of the best in Michigan right now. Wisconsin seems the real question

I think that one was in the Trump column in the electoral math I saw Kornacki doing.

Nevada is just fucking weird. I hesitate to pigeonhole a whole state but with Nevada you just have two huge metropolitan areas with almost nothing but service industry. With very specific issues they can be reached on.

And true to form they are very often a wild card.

They seem to have bought into Trumps bullshit this time.

Scardude posted...

The rest of the world is watching and learning about democracy. They don't want American brand democracy anymore.

No other nation has the EC. Each vote counts as a represented vote in most democracies without corruption.

RchHomieQuanChi posted...

Tbf, this election would be a landslide victory for Harris if not for the electoral college grossly overrepresenting rural, middle-of-nowhere communities.

Keep in mind throughout the entire planet, incumbent parties have been tossed out left and right. Biden's popularity is legit bad, and the fundamentals are "the Republicans should be running away with this."

Instead, Harris is leading the credible polls and fundamentals unless something is big. People are jut using any excuse to freak out as per usual.

LeTigre posted...

While yea, we need to vote for Harris because we cannot have Trump, I dont see how this election isnt the end of the Democrats being a viable party.

like how are you going to take the easiest election in history against some barely literate corpse, and turn it into a coin flip?

At the same time, this election can shatter the GOP. The Maga wing could just give up on everything and sit out if Trump is no longer in the equation.

this is pure speculation but I wonder if democrats are a little spooked about voting early knowing that republicans are going to challenge the results as much as possible

i live in a swing stage and my plan is to vote on Election Day specifically because I know republicans are going to publicly question the legitimacy of early voting

RchHomieQuanChi posted...

Tbf, this election would be a landslide victory for Harris if not for the electoral college grossly overrepresenting rural, middle-of-nowhere communities.

One of several reasons why America needs to grow up and draft a modern constitution, not one that's 250 years old (and written by hypocrites).

divot1338 posted...

I think that one was in the Trump column in the electoral math I saw Kornacki doing.

Nevada is just fucking weird. I hesitate to pigeonhole a whole state but with Nevada you just have two huge metropolitan areas with almost nothing but service industry. With very specific issues they can be reached on.

And true to form they are very often a wild card.

They seem to have bought into Trumps bullshit this time.

Why are we basing this on 250K? In the Before Times, early votes skewed Republican, and the tabs aren't showing otherwise now. Nevada has been voting blue in elections for a while now, and the culinary union vote machine is pretty reliable. Harris's polling has been solid there. I s

What some people won't want to admit is a Dem loss in NV would be largely because of immigration where they're viewed as too lax. But right now, early voting is totally irrelevant because the composition is going to be more Democratic on election day

Srk700 posted...

The fact that Trump can run one of the worst campaigns ever, have as much baggage as he does, and has the most unpopular VP pick ever and yet still have a chance to win is infuriating.

Agreed. If he wins, it really is a condemnation on our country.

Dark_Arbron posted...

One of several reasons why America needs to grow up and draft a modern constitution, not one that's 250 years old (and written by hypocrites).

Would be great. We sadly don't have a way to do it

LightSnake posted...

Why are we basing this on 250K? In the Before Times, early votes skewed Republican, and the tabs aren't showing otherwise now. Nevada has been voting blue in elections for a while now, and the culinary union vote machine is pretty reliable. Harris's polling has been solid there. I s

What some people won't want to admit is a Dem loss in NV would be largely because of immigration where they're viewed as too lax. But right now, early voting is totally irrelevant because the composition is going to be more Democratic on election day

None of what you say is accurate for Nevada.

I can understand why y'all would have anxiety for this election, but can you all just chill out for a hot minute and wait until 11/5?

TheGoldenEel posted...

this is pure speculation but I wonder if democrats are a little spooked about voting early knowing that republicans are going to challenge the results as much as possible

i live in a swing stage and my plan is to vote on Election Day specifically because I know republicans are going to publicly question the legitimacy of early voting

I live in Harris County (Texas) and I vote on Election day.

Mainly because my state is the worst about election tampering.

But logistically this thing is a Democratic blowout if nothing insane happens in the next sixteen days.

Thats why I question the wisdom of going after first time voters. The idea that youre going to get the visibility necessary to register and get a novice voter to the poll is pretty fucking small. Compared to the likelihood that every word they say gets blared across Fox News as if it were policy personally approved by Harris.

Xenogears15 posted...

I can understand why y'all would have anxiety for this election, but can you all just chill out for a hot minute and wait until 11/5?

Nah, they'll be shrieking "we're doomed" over and over about tea leaves from a state that hasn't voted Republican in 20 years.

How much of this stems from Trump's empty promise to not tax tips?

darkace77450 posted...

How much of this stems from Trump's empty promise to not tax tips?

Its probably an even split between that, the economy and immigration.

Their economy got pretty fucked up there for awhile.

The good news is that exit polling tends to be much more accurate so both sides will be course correcting in the next week or so.

There is less than 2 weeks until the election.

We will have plenty of time to be dissapointed, now is not the time for giving up, now is the time for getting out and voting and trying as hard as possible to save deomcracy.

Fear Mongering will only cause people to panic and possibly change their mind about voting.

Ryangrad posted...

None of what you say is accurate for Nevada.

How do your figure?

Solar_Crimson posted...

Agreed. If he wins, it really is a condemnation on our country.

The fact that it's even close is a condemnation on our country, but at least it's something that if Harris wins we could maybe come back from.

Trump winning after all of this basically puts the nail in the coffin of America as a reasonable, respected nation. Trump in any other country would've been in prison at this point and forgotten, not given 4+ more years.

I still have faith NV goes to Harris and Democrats.

That state is notorious for slow counting despite having a small population. And being near impossible to poll accurately. The only true result we'll get from NV will probably be like 4 days after November 5th.

divot1338 posted...

Its probably an even split between that, the economy and immigration.

Their economy got pretty fucked up there for awhile.

I suppose some of it could be sexism. We sometimes forget there is a non-zero portion of the voting base who will never vote for a woman for president.

ZaruenKosai posted...

There is less than 2 weeks until the election.

We will have plenty of time to be dissapointed, now is not the time for giving up, now is the time for getting out and voting and trying as hard as possible to save deomcracy.

Fear Mongering will only cause people to panic and possibly change their mind about voting.

who is giving up?

posting facts that arent in Harriss favor isnt fear mongering, its discussion. Suggesting that we dont acknowledge what we are able to observe is cult-like behavior.

A scared voter is a voter that shows up.

The sweet spot in a nailbiter like this is having an enthusiastic Democratic base seeing what appears to be a Republican onslaught.

Because there are so many more of us than them.

Democrats would never lose if Democratic voters didnt have to be convinced, cajoled and outright frightened into voting.

If theyre terrified theyre going to lose then that at least shuts down all the overthinking we tend to do.

LightSnake posted...

Nah, they'll be shrieking "we're doomed" over and over about tea leaves from a state that hasn't voted Republican in 20 years.

Nevada is absolutely in play this year. The polls there are as close as they are in any other swing state. The campaigns believe it too. Dems even sent Obama there.