Current Events > NYT: Biden gains in the polls after Trump felony conviction.

(+) Yeah! (+)

Its one of the biggest questions in the wake of Donald J. Trumps conviction: Did the verdict change anyones mind?

Early on, the answer appears to be an equivocal yes.

In interviews with nearly 2,000 voters who previously took New York Times/Siena College surveys, President Biden appeared to gain slightly in the aftermath of Mr. Trumps conviction last week for falsifying business records.

The group favored Mr. Trump by three points when originally interviewed in April and May, but this week they backed him by only one point.

While theres no way to be sure whether their views reflect the broader electorate, the findings offer unusually clear evidence that the verdict has led some voters to reconsider their support for Mr. Trump.

Overall, Mr. Trump retains 93 percent of voters who told us they backed him in a previous survey a tally thats yet another striking show of political resilience from a candidate who is facing three more sets of criminal indictments.

But in a close election, losing 7 percent of your supporters can be decisive. In recent polls, Mr. Biden either leads or is within two points of Mr. Trump in states and districts worth the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency. A potentially crucial sliver of Mr. Trumps former supporters 3 percent now told us theyll back Mr. Biden, while another 4 percent say theyre now undecided. (The overall shift is closer to two percentage points because it also accounts for the smaller slice of voters who moved away from Mr. Biden when contacted again.)

The shift was especially pronounced among the young, nonwhite and disengaged Democratic-leaning voters who have propelled Mr. Trump to a lead in the early polls. Of the people who previously told us they had voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but would vote for Mr. Trump in 2024, around one-quarter now said they would instead stick with Mr. Biden.

Voters who dislike both candidates who have been dubbed double haters were especially likely to defect from Mr. Trump. Overall, Mr. Trump lost more than one-fifth of the double haters who once backed him. That group of defectors was about evenly split between moving to Mr. Biden and saying they were now undecided.

Politically disengaged voters, an area of growth for Mr. Trump in recent polls, are especially likely to shift from Mr. Trump to Mr. Biden.

This was the point of creating the right wing media sphere. Nixon fell because the media coverage told everyone exactly what he had done. Right wingers have been pissed ever since and thus created an entirely separate media apparatus to create an entirely alternate reality for conservatives to believe in.

Hahaha now I just have to imagine how FOX would have gone on giving their spin on Watergate.

In a less fucked up society, something like multiple felony convictions would have a much greater impact. But clearly Republicans today have no real respect for rule of law, just like how they showed in 2016 that they have no respect for traditional Christian values. I'm actually afraid of how much this gap could shrink in the next 5 months as this becomes a more distant memory in our goldfish lives.

"but her emails"

"barry what the fuck is an email"

It's absolutely wild to me as well, but I literally work with people that are SO far down the Trump rabbit hole that I seriously think they may resort to violence if Biden wins in November.

"but her emails"

"barry what the fuck is an email"

"How this is actually bad for Biden!"

The fact that this is even a contest is fucking insane to me.

"How this is actually bad for Biden!"

I'm not gonna be a hypocrite on polls, especially not from NYT, just cause Biden is doing better.

What I will do is stay consistent with my message that it's asinine to think Trump being a convicted felon would somehow help him with anybody except white supremacist domestic terrorists, IE his base.

Non-right wingers aren't going to look at this and suddenly fall in love/line with the guy. That's just so asinine to think him being a convicted felon, especially on all counts, somehow helps him with everybody else.

It's good for Biden but he's still polling like dogshit overall. This race is going to be getting a clunker over the finish line and not the landslide it has every reason to be.

The fact trump is still leading is asinine. I still say biden should have waited until a possible 2nd term before going after trump. Trump was dead in the water until his fans were rejuvenated.

No, he wasn't. Trump was going to spend 4 years motivating the base over and over again just like he is now. Not going after him would have made it look like he was going to get away with everything and probably would have demoralized the left even further than they already are.

Anyway, at this point, I've come to terms with the fact that the US is going to put Trump back in office. The only question now is if we can survive as a democracy to 2028 and how much we're going to lose on the path there.

It's absolutely wild to me as well, but I literally work with people that are SO far down the Trump rabbit hole that I seriously think they may resort to violence if Biden wins in November.

Hahaha now I just have to imagine how FOX would have gone on giving their spin on Watergate.

Sure, the deep state, they can stop some men, some presidents. They stopped Richard Nixon 50 years ago this summer, 1974, August, that's when Richard Nixon resigned. And, contrary to a lot of people, well, what they think they know about that, it wasn't really Nixon. He didn't do anything wrong. It was a deep state plot to get him. Absolutely.

The fact trump is still leading is asinine. I still say biden should have waited until a possible 2nd term before going after trump. Trump was dead in the water until his fans were rejuvenated.

I think the really bizarre ones are absolutely the people who shifted from Biden to presumably Trump. Like, the fuck is up with that?

Somebody hasn't looked at the numbers. He had no chance in hell.

That 4-point Biden lead in the NBC News poll is nearly identical to his popular-vote margin in 2020.

Covid went a long way towards unseating Trump. It crippled people financially, it gave people time to listen in a bit more on what was happening with Trump himself, and it cast the entire party as callous when the GOP actively fought against easements like the relief checks. Trump was the outlier in demanding the party actually give the public something for relief, and the GOP kneecapped those efforts.

The funniest part is he got nailed for covering up something that his cult clearly would not have given a fuck about.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/5/5e6e8073.jpg

2024 election results

The fact that this is even a contest is fucking insane to me.

Id swap Arizona with North Carolina this coming cycle. I sadly dont think my adopted home state is trending nearly as blue as people think it is.

People there hate Biden. They hate Trump too since he made fun of McCain, but they feel more comfortable with conservative politics.

Lot of MAGA goofballs in Phoenix.

She won't be winning Arizona. The GOP lost it with the abortion ruling.

I'm surprised no one question Texas being blue lol