Board 8 > Simpsons Mafia Topic 7: Beware of the 4 finger discount

(+) Yeah! (+)

Enchantress posted...

Red, Lea, JC - flawless town

7 alive
Lynch Chang, Red dies.

5 alive
Lynch Ben, I die

JC, Sbell, Ulti = it's Ulti.

Don't be mad at me Ulti, from your perspective I'm sure this final 3 unpossible.

Chang is option one because he played like a godfather.

Ben is option 2 because I want the Hans Moleman Bart theory to be real.

Ulti is option 3 because he had to kill Wallz to avoid being trapped, and Sbell took his lumps in the crucible like true town.

would you scan sbell or ulti at f5? i presume ulti?

Enchantress posted...

Red, Lea, JC - flawless town

7 alive
Lynch Chang, Red dies.

5 alive
Lynch Ben, I die

JC, Sbell, Ulti = it's Ulti.

Don't be mad at me Ulti, from your perspective I'm sure this final 3 unpossible.

Chang is option one because he played like a godfather.

Ben is option 2 because I want the Hans Moleman Bart theory to be real.

Ulti is option 3 because he had to kill Wallz to avoid being trapped, and Sbell took his lumps in the crucible like true town.

Ulti knows I lynch him in final 3. Not sure that's his best play

And i dont watch the show but I'm inferring its because Hans Holeman dresses up as Bart in that picture I happened to post day 1. Which would be the exact kind of troll hint scum me would post, even though i had no idea I was doing it at the time ):

Chaeix posted...

ben, how does chang survive an endgame with you and i?

why would he shoot wallz?

Lea's scan probably doesnt matter to Godfather and leaving her alive causes paranoia in town.

Cant shoot Red, because Red is shooting Sbell or FD. They need every kill they can get.

Wallz is next closest confirmed next to you. I guess its a good question why they didnt shoot you? Maybe Wallz could hurt them more if he got his track back, its the only thing that could stop a godfather.

Chaeix posted...

would you scan sbell or ulti at f5? i presume ulti?

Ulti, yeah. I do think my scan is useless now.

Obellisk posted...

Ulti knows I lynch him in final 3. Not sure that's his best play

The frame Ulti plan and the scum ULti plan are both flawed. But my response is, how does scum win from this board state? Any scum.

PunishedBen posted...

Lea's scan probably doesnt matter to Godfather and leaving her alive causes paranoia in town.

Cant shoot Red, because Red is shooting Sbell or FD. They need every kill they can get.

Wallz is next closest confirmed next to you. I guess its a good question why they didnt shoot you? Maybe Wallz could hurt them more if he got his track back, its the only thing that could stop a godfather.

well wallz getting his scan back also confirms ulti as town if ulti's alive

Ben, killing a vigilante doesn't stop their shot from firing

(unless ulti's ninja but flavour gf/gf/ninja would be a lot on an already-strong team)

hmmm well i've done the current poe math and i'm going to die today, unless red has something else to propose. which is ok, but i just need to calculate out what happens from here. give me a couple hours to work that out and then you can kill me tbh.

it's funny though. i've never once been lynched off of a fake claim. almost like it's easier to fit into the expectations of what should exist in the game when you fake claim. this community never wants to believe that real roles are real

There is the fact that Wallz being alive keeps Ulti as confirmed town, yes. That's a good reason to pick killing Wallz over JC. In addition, Red was not an option, and thus they had to avoid Red's doc save, and couldnt go for someone more obvious

Enchantress posted...

Ben, killing a vigilante doesn't stop their shot from firing

Oh. If that's true then F me I guess >_>

I should have shot Red

(That's a joke btw)

PunishedBen posted...

Oh. If that's true then F me I guess >_>

I should have shot Red

Wait, what

changmas posted...

hmmm well i've done the current poe math and i'm going to die today, unless red has something else to propose. which is ok, but i just need to calculate out what happens from here. give me a couple hours to work that out and then you can kill me tbh.

it's funny though. i've never once been lynched off of a fake claim. almost like it's easier to fit into the expectations of what should exist in the game when you fake claim. this community never wants to believe that real roles are real

I dont think anyone has wanted to kill you because BP doesnt fit? In fact, we all believe you're BP

UltimaterializerX posted...

You or Justin are the only possible scum that could win from here.

I appreciate that Sultan confirmed JC as mayor when he ended the day. That role should never be scum aligned, but people could have argued Sultan has dabbled in darkness before.

UltimaterializerX posted...

If Justin is scum, he wins and we lynch Sultan.

if i'm scum and i win i'll join in on lynching sultan because that would be op as shit

Wait, Sultan said "The mayor has ended the day".

MAYOR is not a renamed role. Sultan slipped!!!!

PunishedBen posted...

Wait, Sultan said "The mayor has ended the day".

MAYOR is not a renamed role. Sultan slipped!!!!

clearly the lynch became ethical when i lynched scum

Boy, I sure hope someone got fired for that blunder

Red: Red is ultra confirmed giga town. In truth, he's the ONLY player left that can be considered 100% town. Not only did he know about the strongman kill beforehand but is also confirmed to have fired a vig shot when Death had the extra kill for scum. I expect he will die tonight though, so this analysis is probably not that useful.

JC: JC is 99.9999% town. aside from being obviously town from day 1, sultan surely didn't give scum an unethical mayor which (in some ways) could function as an extra kill.

Next let's discuss the possibility of a godfather. Odds on this seem pretty high still, because town has two scanners. It's a little strange for Bart to be godfather and not Homer, but certainly not out of the question. It also helps to explain why Wallz was the kill last night.
If every player remaining scans as their actual claim (i.e. 6 town and 1 Flavor Godfather), then Lea's role is useless moving forward. They have no way to stop Red from killing a vanilla last night anyway, so as long as he doesn't have a second vig shot (safe assumption) and can't heal himself (another safe assumption), there's no additional value to his role being alive for another day.
But killing Wallz actually does achieve something meaningful; it adds Ulti back into the POE. At this point, from my stance, it's close to certainty that there's only one scum left. And if that's the case, seeing someone die and Ulti still not move confirms him as 100% town. Killing Wallz ensures that doesn't happen.

With that being said, the calculus makes Ulti almost assuredly town, though it's slightly dependent on whether Sultan allows a scum player n1 to use an ability and deliver a kill at the same time. You see, with Ctes dead, the scum team makeup/action grid looks like:

Corrik (n1 rolecop something)
Death (poison me? or poison instantly healed by doctor?)
Godfather (delivers kill)

Unless Death was saving the poison for night 4 (very unlikely), corrik delivered the kill and a role cop at the same time (bad game mechanics), or a 5th scum player (seems not possible anymore), it must have been the Godfather delivering the kill. And we know Ulti didn't do that. So let's take him out of the POE too. Godfather Ninja be damned.

Next is Ben. Ben is flavor scanned, which is all well and good except that there's probably a godfather remaining, so that doesn't really mean anything for him. And frankly if you're banking on me being Bart, bulletproof godfather disguised as ralph wiggum town bp then you might as well bank on Ben being Hans "Bart" Moleman, old man vanilla. This is for sure the direction I would go today, if I am by some miracle allowed to live, or tomorrow after you see my flip.

Then comes SBell. I still don't feel as though there's much going for SBell. Apparently was so disappointed at being Peter Griffin in a Simpsons game that he decided, more or less, to give up from the beginning. My theory kind of lost a lot of steam after Homer flipped though, it doesn't make all that much sense for Bart to be Peter Griffin, although Bart is quite the prankster. *Shrugs* If Ben is town too probably just kill this guy idk. In a final three, DEFINITELY KILL SBELL OVER ULTI EVERY TIME.

And last of all is Lea. Oh, sweet Lea, how you have turned on me in the blink of an eye.
The biggest note I have about Lea is that if you believe strongly that SBell is town, you should seriously consider lynching Lea with 5 remaining. And if there is by some chance, two scum remaining, Lea is basically guaranteed to be one of them. But that's beside the point, really. Here's the case for Lea being scum. It only requires her to fake one scan, and she doesn't even have to fake it until Day 4.
Lea actually did not clarify how her role worked until day 4 - she merely reiterated that she scanned Red and that Red was town. Something easily fakeable for scum. The other major point in her favor is identifying Red's flavor before he did. And there's a small gambit here, but it's really not as big of a stretch as you might think. Red claimed vig on day 1, and most people didn't know whether it was a real claim or not. Very possible scum would choose to rolecop him n1 and discover he's a Vigilante/Doctor or whatever the exact role name will be.
And I think pretty much anybody familiar enough with the Simpsons could guess which doctor that would be, flavor-wise.

Now the downsides of this theory of course are that, if scum found out red was a Vig / Doctor, why would they not kill him earlier? To that question, I don't have really have a good answer. In my view, scum made some strange choices this game, like janitoring kirby and killing lopen n1. Maybe they knew he would eventually shoot town vanilla. who knows?

tl;dr: kill Ben next. then kill Sbell (if you trust Lea) or Lea (if you trust Sbell). Then kill the other one. Ulti being godfather ninja should be much less likely than any Ben, Sbell, or Lea scenario. Especially since by design he ought not to be delivering three of the kills.

next, i'll write a short defense for myself, open myself up to any questions you folks might have, and post some final simpsons memes before I either chang your minds or resign to my death and join the comrades of the DTC.

a short defense for myself:

i'm not claiming town bulletproof if i'm scum godfather bulletproof. i'm making up some kind of fake claim that's getting believed over this dumb role that everyone suspects constantly. frankly it's funny that every time i actually claim my true, full role someone tells me it's not true. and every time i've ever lied about my role (as either alignment), people believe me without question.

if i knew that the extra kill was actually poison, and that death couldn't have used it on me on night 2, why in the world would i boldly claim that i attracted the extra kill on night 2, knowing that as soon as death died i would look completely terrible? like in this hypothetical scenario i'm just praying death doesn't A) get lynched or B) get shot by Red afterwards, and if either of those things happen I'm just fucked? Please put some respect on my scum game (even if there's only been one) because I would not hang the game in the balance on some nonsense like that

y'all got me on the begging to be scanned on day 2 thing though tbh, that's totally within my godfather game. Hell, I might even bluff that as a non-godfather scum gambit tbh. pretty unlikely you will ever get scanned if you beg for it, but really I was just trying to hit that unkillable townconfirmed bulletproof status. the irony of course being that scum actually could have killed me with the strongman shot they still had. but alas, such is life.

idk that's pretty much all i got.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/f/f3683d0b.jpg

##Vote:Ben

anyways i'm gonna play some FFXVI but i'll check back in periodically tonight if anyone wants to pick my brain on stuff.

otherwise, you should wait for red to decide when to end the day because he's effectively guaranteed to be nightkilled tonight, so make sure to let him get all his thoughts out too.

D'ohtals
(2)Chang- enchantress , Ben, (Sbell)
(1) Ben - Chang

changmas posted...

a short defense for myself:

i'm not claiming town bulletproof if i'm scum godfather bulletproof. i'm making up some kind of fake claim that's getting believed over this dumb role that everyone suspects constantly. frankly it's funny that every time i actually claim my true, full role someone tells me it's not true. and every time i've ever lied about my role (as either alignment), people believe me without question.

if i knew that the extra kill was actually poison, and that death couldn't have used it on me on night 2, why in the world would i boldly claim that i attracted the extra kill on night 2, knowing that as soon as death died i would look completely terrible? like in this hypothetical scenario i'm just praying death doesn't A) get lynched or B) get shot by Red afterwards, and if either of those things happen I'm just fucked? Please put some respect on my scum game (even if there's only been one) because I would not hang the game in the balance on some nonsense like that

y'all got me on the begging to be scanned on day 2 thing though tbh, that's totally within my godfather game. Hell, I might even bluff that as a non-godfather scum gambit tbh. pretty unlikely you will ever get scanned if you beg for it, but really I was just trying to hit that unkillable townconfirmed bulletproof status. the irony of course being that scum actually could have killed me with the strongman shot they still had. but alas, such is life.

idk that's pretty much all i got.

Can you elaborate on the middle paragraph why death dying makes you look bad? I'm not completely seeing it.

changmas posted...

And last of all is Lea. Oh, sweet Lea, how you have turned on me in the blink of an eye.
The biggest note I have about Lea is that if you believe strongly that SBell is town, you should seriously consider lynching Lea with 5 remaining. And if there is by some chance, two scum remaining, Lea is basically guaranteed to be one of them. But that's beside the point, really. Here's the case for Lea being scum. It only requires her to fake one scan, and she doesn't even have to fake it until Day 4.
Lea actually did not clarify how her role worked until day 4 - she merely reiterated that she scanned Red and that Red was town. Something easily fakeable for scum. The other major point in her favor is identifying Red's flavor before he did. And there's a small gambit here, but it's really not as big of a stretch as you might think. Red claimed vig on day 1, and most people didn't know whether it was a real claim or not. Very possible scum would choose to rolecop him n1 and discover he's a Vigilante/Doctor or whatever the exact role name will be.
And I think pretty much anybody familiar enough with the Simpsons could guess which doctor that would be, flavor-wise.

i don't see why scum would janitor kirby instead of red if they scanned red doc n1 to prepare lea's claim fwiw

Dang, I had a brief thought to save wallz but decided to make the safe play and just take out the person suspected by both ben/sbell.

PunishedBen posted...

Can you elaborate on the middle paragraph why death dying makes you look bad? I'm not completely seeing it.

I operated the entire game or at least since night 2 under the assumption that the janitor kill was the extra kill / the extra kill was a normal kill that got blocked by something (doctor or me). The fact that the extra kill is a poison and had to be used by death (on a night that wasnt night 2 or 3) means that my assertion about blocking the extra kill n2 was definitely wrong.

On my phone so give me a sec/ another post but that point is related to an argument Lea is making to argue for my lynch here

Enchantress posted...

Scum poisoned me and Red saved me. Corrik claimed poison with the hope of bussing Death, verifying poison exists, and being doc saved. That didn't work, and then Chang started to say the missing kill was due to scum shooting him. Chang was eager to be scanned because he is Godfather BP, and I think he played a very strong scum game hampered by his teammate's timezones and wrestling committments. I wish Red hadn't shot FD, based on his flow chart scum Death meant town FD, but no matter.

this argument.

UltimaterializerX posted...

And here again I have a problem. I cant possibly see Chang as scum, because why would scum ever point that out?

Well, you should probably keep in mind that thing you said an hour ago about being really prone to manipulation by anyone who is nice to you or defends you.

Additionally, hosts almost never enforce action economy that way, or Corrik didn't bother to rolecop, etc - his defense will magically disappear when he needs it to like scales from his eyes.

changmas posted...

I operated the entire game or at least since night 2 under the assumption that the janitor kill was the extra kill / the extra kill was a normal kill that got blocked by something (doctor or me). The fact that the extra kill is a poison and had to be used by death (on a night that wasnt night 2 or 3) means that my assertion about blocking the extra kill n2 was definitely wrong.

On my phone so give me a sec/ another post but that point is related to an argument Lea is making to argue for my lynch here

Sure, but it doesn't make you look bad in the moment or after death is lynched to play dumb and not be privy to what night actions scum has, right? I get what Lea is saying, but I don't get why it was a bad move for you to take. Whether town or scum it is a good move from you to play up that you might have absorbed a kill in order to play a convincing town bullet proof role. Certainly helps your case as long as the extra kill doesn't flip too. I just don't see how it could be something you wouldn't want to do as scum

Enchantress posted...

Well, you should probably keep in mind that thing you said an hour ago about being really prone to manipulation by anyone who is nice to you or defends you.

Additionally, hosts almost never enforce action economy that way, or Corrik didn't bother to rolecop, etc - his defense will magically disappear when he needs it to like scales from his eyes.

Yeah the latter is true that we've never ever had a game where someone couldn't factional kill and scum power on the same night. Chang should know this. Chang you know this right?

So it's a nice little baseless defense of Ulti to make Ulti feel good, but ulti doesn't need that defense, he has enough already.

Chaeix posted...

i don't see why scum would janitor kirby instead of red if they scanned red doc n1 to prepare lea's claim fwiw

My role is "unethical Doctor" which theoretically could have been taken as me being serious about being vigi. But if I get janitored, town has to take my claim at face value as vigi and can't really assume anything else. And we know from the flip scum doesn't get info off what they janitor, so they wouldn't know they killed doc either.

Unless rolecop was given the full flavor text.

But this is highly, highly, unlikely.

I'm going to be honest, I really kind of wanted to shoot chang or ulti on a re-re-read but I was feeling like I had to make a safe play and take out FD.

idk about all that i certainly wouldn't allow it in a game i hosted, should that day ever come to pass

but anyways if all you're gonna do is sit here and pull apart my honest thoughts with tweezers you might as well send me to the peanut gallery already and start the POE cascade moving.

i've said all i need to say and analyzed all i need to analyze tbh. unfortunate that things are likely to end this way.

if you believe i'm town then vote for ben and if you don't then go ahead and kill me. and then once you believe my flip, kill ben>lea/sbell>sbell/lea. do not kill ulti over any of those people.

board 8 loves to ignore what people say after they die and just do their own thing but don't do that, do what i said please :)

changmas posted...

idk about all that i certainly wouldn't allow it in a game i hosted, should that day ever come to pass

but anyways if all you're gonna do is sit here and pull apart my honest thoughts with tweezers you might as well send me to the peanut gallery already and start the POE cascade moving.

i've said all i need to say and analyzed all i need to analyze tbh. unfortunate that things are likely to end this way.

if you believe i'm town then vote for ben and if you don't then go ahead and kill me. and then once you believe my flip, kill ben>lea/sbell>sbell/lea. do not kill ulti over any of those people.

board 8 loves to ignore what people say after they die and just do their own thing but don't do that, do what i said please :)

okay, run this back for me again.

What do you think happened with the poison?

Because we can surmise pretty well that Death went poison->janitor->strongman

red13n posted...

okay, run this back for me again.

What do you think happened with the poison?

well my answer would have been that either it gets blocked by bulletproof and went into me

or it gets instantly healed by you on the same night that it's used and got consumed instantly

but i just reread my role and apparently i'm only immune to "traditional night kills" so im gonna guess that doesn't actually block poisoning.

so who knows. either you healed it or they decided death was definitely living to day 4 and saved it for then. which would have been a stupid decision but it's theoretically possible

and now what's funny is "traditional night kill" in my mind wouldn't even include a vig shot. boy, that would have been an embarrassing way to go

changmas posted...

well my answer would have been that either it gets blocked by bulletproof and went into me

poison.

bullet.

dont care, that shit said i was indestructible

it's not as though your doctor role explicitly says it heals poison either

changmas posted...

it's not as though your doctor role explicitly says it heals poison either

what?

Sultan said traditional night kills? Also wouldn't that leave you susceptible to Red's vig shot.

im getting very frustrated at the lack of reading comprehension

I didn't read the last part of your post before getting hung up on that. And yes, that's too funny to be true. Lol