Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1374

(+) Yeah! (+)

Leonhart4 posted...

If only there were a way we could find out

Some sort of...series?

ctesjbuvf posted...

Probably beats BG3 easily in a standard contest setting, gets a scare in Game of the Decade.

Maybe right now, but BG3 is only to get more fans over time. That game isn't going away anytime soon.

Also Final Fantasy has historically been a series where each game starts with a huge burst of hype then diminishes over time. Thats not even just a GameFAQs thing, these games sell like half their lifetime numbers in a week. With that said VIIR being the start of a trilogy could help it long term by keeping it in peoples minds. Like how XIV only got stronger with each expansion.

I had forgotten about Dread, that should be up there too and really just give the same kind of scare.

FFVIIR has everything that makes you not blow out competition in a GotY poll. The FF name, VII in particular, being a remake and being not a ground breaking game. I said when I brought it up I would pick against it in all those matches, but I don't doubt for a second FFVIIR looks a good bit better in a regular contest setting. Ultimate vs God of War is similar in this sense though the bar is higher. (though what even is regular these days)

Now if Ultimate or Odyssey beats any of the none-BotW games there, that's more interesting.

KamikazePotato posted...

Maybe right now, but BG3 is only to get more fans over time. That game isn't going away anytime soon.

I don't feel good about judging how a game evolves over time, but probably doesn't come a day where picking a game like that over extremely well received Zelda game in a regular contest will ever feel right.

Once again speaking like regular contest is a thing that exists of course.

I mean really VII Remake is a AAA Action RPG with an 88 average from critics and a franchise name, it performed exactly like that. No reason to assume its be more or less. Its in that RE2/Dread/Bloodborne zone.

I wouldn't take it to be top 5, but based on GotD2, Persona 5 is also on the lower end of the tier of games we're discussing.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8037-quarterfinals-the-witcher-3-wild-hunt-vs-persona-5
https://pastebin.com/Pxt3zA8g

Persona 5 easily beats FF7 Remake and I don't think it would be close.

Persona 5 does have the advantage of coming out on Switch, PC, and Xbox since that contest. It's actually outsold FF7 Remake at this point, which is kinda crazy.

We're nearing the eleven-hour mark of today's poll and have well over half of the expected ~7,000 votes so far:

BEST OF 2023: Game of the Year
Baldur's Gate 341.78% 1859
Resident Evil 413.1% 583
Super Mario Bros. Wonder11.82% 526
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom33.29% 1481
TOTAL VOTES4449

Can BG3 get half of RE4's votes? RE4's voters are already picking RE4 over the Switch's two biggest games today and BG3 is the only game on systems with RE4. How many survival-horror fans will cross over to the Nintendo option? I think BG3 can get 50+% of its voters -- that's 6.55% or more, putting BG3 at at least 48.33% with this estimate.

From there, can BG3 break off 1.68% of Wonder's 11.82% here? Gotta think that's possible.

We probably have a real battle tomorrow.

AxemRedRanger posted...

I wouldn't take it to be top 5, but based on GotD2, Persona 5 is also on the lower end of the tier of games we're discussing.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8037-quarterfinals-the-witcher-3-wild-hunt-vs-persona-5
https://pastebin.com/Pxt3zA8g

Game of the Decade 2 is a pretty strong argument against trusting any modern Final Fantasy to be worth much.

Yeah Persona 5 should be up there as well, I never said I would pick FFVIIR above that, it wasn't brought up.

The metacritic argument is kinda trash though. There is precisely reason to assume things are different in polls like the ones we're currently having and contests. Metacritic matters little in the latter.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Game of the Decade 2 is a pretty strong argument against trusting any modern Final Fantasy to be worth much.

It's a pretty moot point.

Dont misunderstand when I mention Metacritic. Its more as an indication of the general reception. Nobody is arguing for FFVIIR as an all-time classic like those other games of similar genre.

if we're thinking of other snubs (that probably wouldn't have done well), Mortal Kombat 1 didn't make the cut

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1492-best-of-2003-game-of-the-year-final-vote

would've been fun to have a three-way poll with Zelda/FF/WRPG this year.

On a related note, I wonder how Persona 5, Dark Souls and Skyrim would rank now. Would people still take Skyrim over Dark Souls in a rematch?

LightningStrikes posted...

Dont misunderstand when I mention Metacritic. Its more as an indication of the general reception. Nobody is arguing for FFVIIR as an all-time classic like those other games of similar genre.

Fair, but well, general reception and gamefaqs reception are just pretty different.

squexa posted...

Would people still take Skyrim over Dark Souls in a rematch?

After the success of Elden Ring and the failure of Starfield -- to the point where FromSoftware's latest much smaller game Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon almost doubled it two days ago -- I wonder if the mood has been changing enough to allow this. Fallout hasn't been as well-received recently like it used to be either.

Skyrim does still do well with those polls about the best game with a 5 in in though and improved with those between 2020 and 2022, however.

Think I'd take DS > Skyrim in this moment where Bethesda recently made people have this big a twist from hype to reception...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9296-which-scheduled-september-release-are-you-most-looking
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9421-best-of-2023-summer

...dunno that I'll still feel like that once attention is off Starfield though.

I'd take Dark Souls over Skyrim now without thinking twice. Skyrim showed signs of decline already and probably partly held on in a contest where its influence could be appreciated. That was already soon 4 years ago (wow).

lmao, 7000 votes, twenty years ago we'd have ten times these numbers

Literally. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1492-best-of-2003-game-of-the-year-final-vote

HaRRicH posted...

Skyrim does still do well with those polls about the best game with a 5 in in though and improved with those between 2020 and 2022, however.

Skyrim's percentage did fall in 2022 though. Just a small amount, but the other options also became more favorable to Skyrim.

Skyrim vs P5 could also be interesting. Skyrim was worth around 53% on P5 in 2020, maybe 54% if adjusted for rallies. P5 finally getting a wide release and Skyrim continuing to weaken especially with Bethesda's reputation in the gutter thanks to Starfield could make this much closer.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8081-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8813-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game

Skyrim barely dropping despite multiple new options is pretty good, actually! Though of course SMT5 would hurt P5 way more than any other game.

Oops, I misspoke about those polls, thanks for the call-out.

MacArrowny posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8081-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/8813-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game

Skyrim barely dropping despite multiple new options is pretty good, actually! Though of course SMT5 would hurt P5 way more than any other game.

Eh it's not just about pure number of options. The 2 options in 2020 made up 9.71% while the 4 options in 2022 made up only 8.78% and Id argue the 2020 options hurt Skyrim more. DMC, MGS and FF all went up in 2022, while Persona, GTA and Skyrim fell. Persona like you said for obvious reasons since SMT is in the poll and Rune Factory and Yakuza likely affects it more than RE and Civ did. GTAV and Skyrim I think just continued their decline.

Wow look at Zelda fold!

At least it's crushing Mario under RE

UltimaterializerX posted...

Are we getting a 1v1 final tomorrow?

Who knows

Damn. California has some trends. I noticed earlier today that TOTK was doing quite a bit better in the US than elsewhere, and was even winning California, but when I just checked, BG3 is up in California by 5.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Are we getting a 1v1 final tomorrow?

Seems as if we have a pretty cut and dried winner today.

paulg235 posted...

Seems as if we have a pretty cut and dried winner today.

We don't though

Leonhart4 posted...

We don't though

Why not? Are we really sure enough of Wonder's/RE4's votes would move over to Zelda in a 1v1 poll tomorrow to turn things around? I can see most of Wonder's votes going to Zelda, but I don't think REm4ke voters will be the same. Baldur's Gate 3 probably still ends up winning with something like 51-52%.

I wonder if BG3 would beat OoT or BoTW in a greatest games of all time contest.

paulg235 posted...

Baldur's Gate 3 probably still ends up winning with something like 51-52%.

"cut and dry"

Assuming RE4 splits 50-50, Mario Wonder needs to split something like 86-14 to TotK for it to defeat BG3 in a 1 v 1.

Which also assumes Nintendo won't Nintendo when the chips are down.

KamikazePotato posted...

Mario Wonder needs to split something like 86-14 to TotK for it to defeat BG3 in a 1 v 1.

Entirely plausible.

Also RE4 does have that Nintendo heritage. BG3 has the edge but it could go either way.

For a frame of reference, when Sephiroth went out in the 2006 Battle Royal, Cloud took in about 75% of his percentage. Nintendo SFF tends to be more aggressive than Square SFF.

When Samus went out, Link took 97% of her votes.

Link took in so much that Mario actually went down on Day 2 lawl

2006 is an eternity ago and SFF was stronger back in the day. So it'll be interesting to see what TotK can do if it gets a chance.

Looking back on previous GotYs that went from 3 games to 2, the non-SFF/LFF entries tend to split their votes fairly close to 50/50 between the two entries, maybe 55/45 at most.

If that's the case with RE4, BG3 should still be able to win even if Zelda gets 100% of Wonder's votes.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5382-best-of-2013-game-of-the-year
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5383-best-of-2013-game-of-the-year-final

This example sticks out. ALBW apparently hoovered like 100% of 3D World's votes.

Side note: Last of Us really got robbed by there not being a Final Final poll that year.

There should have been a final final poll but ALBW still would have won. Multiplatform games usually split down the middle. See Fallout 3 in 2008 and RDR2 in 2018.

Edit: Actually 2018 is the perfect comparison as it was first party Nintendo, first party Sony and Rockstar. That split gives ALBW the win.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6575-best-of-2016-game-of-the-year-final-vote
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6576-best-of-2016-game-of-the-year-final-final-vote

Sometimes the split isn't quite even enough. So there was a real chance for Zelda to lose.

Thats actually the opposite dynamic though. A Playstation first party game getting taken out and votes going to the multiplatform game. When it was also Nintendo, Sony, and Rockstar in 2018 it split down the middle.

Assuming the same split, it becomes:
49.25% - The Last of Us
50.75% - A Link Between Worlds

A 50.75% win is unsafe. If the split isn't quite the same, that can turn into a loss. If the natural voter variation from one day to the next is unfavorable to Zelda, it can also lose.

Thats true in general which is why there should always be a final poll. However, it should be noted that no historical split where a multiplatform game is removed gives TLoU the win. Then you have 2021 where Dread gained significantly over REVIII. It is entirely plausible that ALBW increases its margin like that or Brawl. Anything can happen, thats why there should have been a final poll, but ALBW would have been heavily favoured to win. It makes sense, historically multiplatform games are neutral ground even when not on Nintendo systems themselves.

Either way TotK is getting rocked by BotW. Makes me wonder how many Zelda games fit between them.

Looking at that Last of Us result got me to look at something:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/9056-best-of-2022-remakes-and-remasters

This might be one of the most impressive bombings in GotY polling ever, failing to take advantage of a four-way Square split to lose to Tactics Ogre.