Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1374

(+) Yeah! (+)

Currently remembering the 2008 Character Battle! Best of luck going forward, SBAllen!

~*creativename's contest site*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analyses*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Main_Page

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Closest Wire-To-Wire Matches*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Closest_Wire-to-Wire_Matches

~*All-Time Guru List*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/All_Time_Guru_Rankings

~*Most Surprising Results*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Most_Surprising_Results

~*Contest Histories*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
https://board8.fandom.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's extrapolated percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Mewtwo is a solid midcarder. I'm not trying to say he's weak. He won't get wrecked by any non-Noble Niner. I just resisted the idea that he was a near elite.

What started my whole "Mewtwo is a Fraud" campaign was a poll I ran during noms of the 2018 contest asking who was the strongest non-Noble Nine Nintendo character, and Mewtwo won, which legitimately stunned me.

I suppose I should have just let those people keep thinking that for my own benefit, but what can I say? I can't help myself.

Yeah that was ridiculous.

Wonder how Zelda did in that poll lol.

I wonder if I even included her lawl

I tried to find the poll with no luck lol.

But I imagine Pikachu, Bowser, Luigi, Ganondorf, Kirby being more popular choices than Zelda yeah.

Oh wait you made a fourpack of fun: Ganondorf / Kirby, Luigi / Mewtwo

with Mewtwo > Ganondorf winning and Mewtwo > Kirby being tied for second

Maybe this was it

Mewtwo>Ganondorf is a bit wild considering that match already happened and it wasn't close

And the same contest Kirby outperformed Ganondorf on the same opponent, Sonic, by a decent bit.

Yeah, that was it.

I may have been offended on behalf of Luigi, and I was indirectly vindicated there, too...!

Mewtwo also later won a Sonic/Squall, Mewtwo/Crono fourpack you made.

Yeah that was probably the last straw

Luigi might have actually won that theoretical eightpack in 2018 looking back on it now

I think Crono should be the clear favorite

In the Guru, Tifa was solidly the favourite to beat Mewtwo in their match. So I have no idea what was going on in those board polls!

I imagine my campaign had some effect on things, and probably a lot of those voters don't submit brackets to the Guru (or at all, really).

I also pushed Tifa pretty hard in the contest pre-season. Those big analysis topics I made tended to have some effect - even if I led people astray as often as I helped them!

I thought I was giving Tifa a lot of credit before the contest... then I failed to predict Tifa over Sephiroth anyways. >_>

TeamRocketElite posted...

I thought I was giving Tifa a lot of credit before the contest... then I failed to predict Tifa over Sephiroth anyways. >_>

I mean me too. That result is still ridiculous even if that year's results indicated it was possible. It went against two decades of conventional contest wisdom.

I mean we'd seen Tifa lose directly to Sephiroth in two different contests and it wasn't particularly close either time

That was an unprecedented hierarchy shift within the same game

In hindsight my theory of 'traditionally edgy-appeal characters are going to drop off' that was the cause for Vincent/Auron/Squall/etc. falling in 2013 should have affected Sephiroth more than any of them, since he had so much more room to fall.

TeamRocketElite posted...

I thought I was giving Tifa a lot of credit before the contest... then I failed to predict Tifa over Sephiroth anyways. >_>

I was the only one in the oracle that did this (blatant humble brag). No one expected it right up until it began lol.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

In hindsight my theory of 'traditionally edgy-appeal characters are going to drop off' that was the cause for Vincent/Auron/Squall/etc. falling in 2013 should have logically led to me expecting it to affect Sephiroth more than any of them, since he had so much more room to fall.

Why is Cloud immune to this

pjbasis posted...

Why is Cloud immune to this

He isn't, he also fell off a cliff but being in Smash covered some of it up.

Cloud barely beating Mario in 2018 was considered an impressive result. That match used to be a 62-38.

Cloud isn't edgy

also Cloud had a lot of strength to lose while still being able to be #2 on the site

He went from 53/47 against Link to 60/40 against Link over the span of 2010 to 2018, so there was definitely a dropoff.

Hey, if Link grew in strength as much as Zelda did in that period, Cloud actually got stronger!

I'd argue Link's strength was diminishing over time, too, but Breath of the Wild enabled him to regain some of it.

Given that back in 2010 we saw signs of Cloud clearly struggling (Captain Falcon breaking 30% on him when at one point even Bowser couldn't do that, Samus hanging even with him until the TDZ and ending up in the high 40s and beating him in the U.S.) while Squall and Auron still seemed basically fine and Vincent in retrospect looking like he had probably already started his big drop, a theoretically Cloud-that's-not-in-Smash might have dropped about as hard as even Vincent did. I guess that maybe kinda matches up with what we saw out of Cloud in 2013 though.

LeonhartFour posted...

Cloud isn't edgy

His Kingdom Hearts design is!

OG Cloud isn't edgy, but he definitely is in Kingdom Hearts and Advent Children, and those were the two major sources of his post-FF7 strength. I think it's fair to lump him in with the edgy crowd that fell off once we collectively grew past our teenage years.

One benefit of FF7 Remake is that I think it reminded people of what the characters they love (or used to love) were actually like.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3288-division-7-round-2-big-boss-kirby-m-chief-raiden

Big Boss and Raiden in the same match is some dirty shit. Probably doesn't prevent Kirby from doing his run later on though.

4-way Chief brings back memories.

I think Kirby might have actually been boosted by Smash that year and not just the hype or reveals like most do.

KamikazePotato posted...

Cloud barely beating Mario in 2018 was considered an impressive result. That match used to be a 62-38.

Technically the match used to be won by Mario lol, I don't think they met between 02 and 18. But yeah.

Peak Big Boss ruined by lousy Raiden

Hey now Lopen wasn't the only one who had Master Chief going deep!

Although I feel like calling Ryu's path was my best prediction from 2007.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3289-division-7-round-2-leon-riku-dante-hogger

I love how everyone is all dark and brooding pretty boy, and then there's Hogger standing out like a sore thumb with sharp teeth.

https://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-46.jpg

Dante/Leon was so good in 2007, let's do it again

I think I had Riku advancing in that match because I thought something weird went on when Dante and Leon face each other (Pikachu did end up winning that 2007 match).

At least the logic held true regarding Snake/Hayabusa

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3290-division-8-round-2-sonic-sandbag-auron-sub-zero

Auron easily beat Sonic and I feel like nobody was surprised and we didn't make a big deal out of it

This could have been Squall

It's a combination of the four way formatting meaning both Auron and Sonic advanced regardless, people attributing the upset due to Sandbag leeching Sonic, and the fact that Seph would SFF Auron into the ground next round with Sonic easily slotting into 2nd no matter what.

It's a shame we couldn't have gotten Auron vs. Sonic 1v1, because that might have been eye-opening.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

people attributing the upset due to Sandbag leeching Sonic

I don't recall anyone doing this

Sandbag is at least enough of a wild card that I wouldn't think that match is the best for judging direct matchups.

Genesis LFF from Sub-Zero could help explain both that match (particularly the margin of victory - Sonic losing to Auron is sorta sensible, Sonic getting 46% on Auron is kind of eyebrow-raising) as well as why Squall almost beat Sonic in 2007 despite Sora being there to drag him down and then still narrowly failed to beat Sonic after Sora and Sub-Zero were removed!

It could've been Blue LFF

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3291-division-8-round-2-sephiroth-tifa-kratos-jill

Wonder what the percentages on this one look like today

Man, it's still wild that Tifa ended up usurping Sephiroth in the FF7 chain of command.

Tifa has like that one loss to Sonic in her first contest and if I recall correctly only has bowed out to Sephiroth and Samus.

I at least remember her going from #2 in the x-stats to missing the damn 2007 bracket entirely despite the larger field.

Yep, Tifa is one of the few characters who has only lost to Noble Niners 1-on-1.

She could almost say it overall, but she did technically "lose" to Kratos because of Seph's presence in that match.

I don't think anyone can say they've only lost to Noble Niners in every format other than one-off 16 seeds or something.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3292-division-1-final-link-zack-duke-nukem-altair

Featuring this gem:

https://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb7/cb7-49-4.jpg

Sometimes we shouldn't let people cook.