Board 8 > YGO Master Duel Mafia Topic 4 - Slyfer no Slyfing

(+) Yeah! (+)

1. BCT
2. Ben
3. Changmas
4. Ctes
5. Han
6. HBtheBattle
7. Kirby
8. Lopen
9. PeaceFrog
10. Poppy
11. Sultan
12. ViolentAbacus

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day ends at 7 PM EST Saterday, October 15th.

Lopen is stubborn enough to insist on me being scum for a full day after me literally flipping town. If the whole argument atm boils down to me Hb's actions, then his vote on me is still basically unexplained.

This is annoying but most likely means Lopen is town, so we'll probably just have to deal with him deciding to be useless for now.

Hb is the lynch, not you

Also that's such a gross misrepresentation of last game you have to be scum

Lopen posted...

Also that's such a gross misrepresentation of last game you have to be scum

How is that not exactly what happened. I know you were insane, but all you considered that day was me being scum despite flipping town.

I'll ask again what did HB claim?

ctesjbuvf posted...

I know you were insane, but all you considered that day was me being scum despite flipping town.

Because the game was unwinnable for town if you weren't and it made more sense than my role

Lopen posted...

Because the game was unwinnable for town if you weren't and it made more sense than my role

No one agreed with you on that!

Lopen posted...

I do honestly think you were doing it prepared to jump to someone else. You were practically begging Han to make you vote Sbell, then did it anyway when he didn't

My third or fourth tinfoil hat theory so far is that hb has been following han's guidance so hard, he is to be Scum trying to get on han's good side and butter him up (han town in this scenario). If they were both scum then they wouldn't need to be so blatant about it.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

I'll ask again what did HB claim?

Well, the next thing that should happen is Hb claiming everything he has instead of being mysterious about it. Then we take it from there.

But he said he cop scanned Abacus innocent last night and that he reason to think that there is 70-80% chance of Lopen and Ben being scum IIRC.

ctesjbuvf posted...

No one agreed with you on that!

They were wrong. It was unwinnable for town barring some weird set of circumstances.

Peace___Frog posted...

My third or fourth tinfoil hat theory so far is that hb has been following han's guidance so hard, he is to be Scum trying to get on han's good side and butter him up (han town in this scenario). If they were both scum then they wouldn't need to be so blatant about it.

100% agree. Hb's interactions with Han are the main reason I have pause about Han being scum.

Han is NOT making it easier by actually believing his ridiculous claim but yeah.

Peaf, what did Kirby say in regards to me that you considered him reading your mind?

There is a SLIGHT possibility that Ctes is town and Hb is scum. Scum pivoting off vanilla to hope to hit a power role is not out of the question.

That would be bad play but it's not inconceivably bad like thinking inno scan on someone you suspected enough to scan has two people who also suspected that individual at 70-80% scum.

I still think the whole lynch train does not make sense if that's town/town though and Ctes is scum (also don't think a real vanilla has to have their claim pried out of them like that at the end of the day)

Lopen posted...

They were wrong. It was unwinnable for town barring some weird set of circumstances.

If Poppy hits scum or SBell with his bombs, it's very winnable, not that it's that important now.

Though it does show how stubborn you are given that you're actually still arguing what was not true made the most sense.

Peace___Frog posted...

My third or fourth tinfoil hat theory so far is that hb has been following han's guidance so hard, he is to be Scum trying to get on han's good side and butter him up (han town in this scenario). If they were both scum then they wouldn't need to be so blatant about it.

Thing is, my Townread on Hb is based on rereading his Day 1, and nothing about today.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Though it does show how stubborn you are given that you're actually still arguing what was not true made the most sense.

I still think random psychic is a worse role than Death Miller Watcher, conceptually. And I think if Death Miller didn't have a history on b8 most would agree with me.

changmas posted...

My affectionate friend,
Thanks for your kind note. On the nature of our esteemed guest Han, I believe that he has found himself somewhat distracted by the musings of the gentleman Lopen and by SBell prior to his lynch in the town square. Beyond that, I am feeling quite certain that he is aligned with town. I think this letter of his sounds fairly plausible:

I see three possible scenarios for what transpired with BCT, most of which have been proposed at various times by multiple individuals.

1. Sultan is scum and targeted only BCT to frame him, while the rest of scum saves up gems for the more powerful cards like the full trap negate spells.
2. BCT is scum and scum decided to spend 150 gems on two Pot of Greeds + the 50 gold trap (still can't remember the name) to try and townclear
3. (as Han suggested) Scum team just mass Pot of Greeded in case a day cop did exist to muddle the resutls.

Han himself spent at least 50 gold on the trap as well, and he could be either of these simplified scenarios:

1. Han is town who wanted to protect himself from getting Pot of Greeded, so he spent 100 gold on Pot of Greed + the trap to prevent it
2. Han is scum who spent 50 gold on the trap to fake being town, and we don't know what he did with the rest of the gold (could save it, could have spent it on the mass pot of greed play)
And while Han could be devious no doubt, I think that first scenario sounds more realistic to me. OH WAIT - it would actually be incredibly, incredibly stupid of Scum Han to buy and set the trap because it would erase ALL plausible deniability if a day cop did exist and did scan him. He would have to prove that it's the other trap (the 100 gold one) by locking someone's vote on him. Because if he scanned guilty with his trap intact, he couldn't possibly have been Pot of Greeded, and therefore it would be a correct scan.

So then you're into arguing that Scum Han has to be godfather and that's just way less likely than him being town. So yeah, he's gotta be town or godfather to buy and set that trap.

Ahem, let me return to the formal style of my letter. I hope that your seeing the wheels turn in my thought process will make up for the callous and casual style with which I have written above. I trust you will find this information as eye-opening and fascinating as I did.

Sincerely yours,
Changmas

I didn't reply straight away because wrapping my head around the item play has not been conducive to me getting actual work done today.
But fuck, man. After i slowed down and read through your notes here, you explained this really well. Far better than han did. Thank you.

I'm feeling a lot better about chang now. So that means that of the sbell lynch, i feel that the following players are likely town:

• Chang
• Han
• Peaf

That leaves bct, poppy, ctes, and hb. I'm not interested in pushing bct's buttons at all any more, but I agree with sultan (and sbell!) that bct should definitely not be taken as confirmed town.
I've laid my case on hb and have backed off only because he is claimed power and i suspect that he and ctes will be resolved by night actions of some sort tomorrow.
That leaves us with poppy, who i felt extremely good about on day 1 but is a big question mark for me today.

What happened, poppy? Without corrik to bounce off of, you're a little bit lost?

Reposting from t3 because I'm a little bit slow on this fine Friday

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Thing is, my Townread on Hb is based on rereading his Day 1, and nothing about today.

I'm not referring to your town read at all in my evaluation.

And here's the thing

That 70-80% thing? If Hb is town? He realizes he's being stupid about it and has second thoughts about that weighing on a read of me or Ben. No one in the entire game thinks that take makes sense, not even Abacus himself.

He's doubling down because he doesn't know what to do here.

Yip yip ruff!

If Han wasn't so stubborn he would see that that part of the claim doesn't make a lick of sense either and weigh that into whether he bought the claim.

Hb should maybe exsplain his thought process then

There are a few things to take into consideration when weighing whether a claim makes sense.

1. Does the claim and claimed actions match with how they've played the game.
2. Do the results of the claim, if any, match with how they've played the game.
3. Do the motivations and timing for making the claim more closely align with town or scum motivations.
4. A distant #4 this early, does the claim make sense to exist in the setup

Hb fails in all 4 categories, but the truly damning pieces are 2 and 3. A player with cop scans isn't claiming so far ahead of things like that to confirm innocent someone that wasn't getting any notable pressure to rationalize a vote on two people who are currently voting them.

Scum motivations are clear. He wanted to get the claim out before things got too dicey, and he wanted an excuse to discredit people voting him.
Scum interpretation of the results of his actions are clear. A cop as town doesn't make that jump in logic from an innocent scan. Simply too far of a stretch. A cop would keep that scan close to their chest until Abacus was getting heat, or the cop was in danger of dying. (Hb could last a LONG time without getting night killed, which is the only time he's not going to be able to squeeze that result out)

god Lopen I hope for your sake youre scum

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Hb should maybe exsplain his thought process then

I have. In retrospect, Lopens push on MZero was brazenly opportunistic, and comes off as wanting to grab a easy mislynch. I dont think it makes sense from a town mindset to make that push.

Your argument relies on either hb would be the one to push his scummate ctes to the table as a lynch for no reasonable benefit to himself or his team or hb as scum in a town/town situation brings a shit ton of attention to himself for no reason at all. Neither of these scenarios make any sense.

Your argument against me is entirely based on me having a bad vote (which I could only know in retrospect: sbell looked like shit yesterday) and my claim making your actions look scummy. You have no logical grounds to stand on.

Lopen posted...

Yip yip ruff!

If Han wasn't so stubborn he would see that that part of the claim doesn't make a lick of sense either and weigh that into whether he bought the claim.

What is so difficult to understand?

"Abacus is Town. Lopen and Ben kept suggesting MZero/Abacus as scum because they're inactive. That's easy for scum to fake."

I think that's made far more sense than anything you've put forth at all this game, honestly. You are blowing things way out of proportion, and I'm pretty damn sure you're doing this on purpose. And just to prove a point

##Unvote
##Vote: Lopen

The thing with that, Kirby, is that:

1. Lopen and Ben aren't the only ones who have said that about Abacus
2. He himself thought Abacus was scummy, as evidenced by including him on a scum list and then scanning him
3. Scanning Abacus, as town, is a very low-value play. Claiming to scan Abacus, as scum, gives town basically no more information than they already had (and scum knows who is not scum).

Lopen's thought process here is not faulty.

Why was scanning Abacus a low value play? Inactive players by their nature are hard to read. Its absolutely valuable for town to close that rabbit hole one way or another.

PunishedBen posted...

Peaf, what did Kirby say in regards to me that you considered him reading your mind?

Basically this:
Kirby321 posted...

Then Ben makes the most sense to lynch, yeah? We get a lot of info out of it.

You could argue lynching Ctes would give us the most, but I'm feeling much worse about Ben. Ctes I'm neutral-ish on.

Which admittedly isn't that much. Why did I think Kirby said more than that, at the time? Now that I'm going through and doing the CTRL+F, I'm having trouble finding anything within the past few hours from Kirby RE: Ben that is what I have in my notes. Hmmm.

Peace___Frog posted...

Basically this:

undefined posted...

Then Ben makes the most sense to lynch, yeah? We get a lot of info out of it.

Which admittedly isn't that much. Why did I think Kirby said more than that, at the time? Now that I'm going through and doing the CTRL+F, I'm having trouble finding anything within the past few hours from Kirby RE: Ben that is what I have in my notes. Hmmm.

OHHHH PEAF. You might have just slipped.

Peace___Frog posted...

Admittedly, a ben flip doesn't tell us very much in either direction, except for some small morsels that we'd have to go through.

What changed your stance completely on this between the end of day 1 and now?

Hbthebattle posted...

Why was scanning Abacus a low value play? Inactive players by their nature are hard to read. Its absolutely valuable for town to close that rabbit hole one way or another.

It tells you basically nothing about anyone else. As I said in topic 3, post 384 (bolding the parts that presume you are town):

Even if you assume that han or lopen will die because there's no doc, at best you scanned an inactive player guilty and then have nothing else to go off of for d3 onwards, and you're dead from it (assuming night kill on n2). At worst (long-term strategically, for town) he scans clean, and you give ammo to someone to skate by for the rest of the game and contribute nothing. It's also super low stakes for scum for reasons already presented, but also because (assuming hb scum and abacus town) you've given effectively zero information to town. A player who hasn't interacted with anyone much is town? Not much to learn from that!

I think that the best play is to presume hb's innocence FOR NOW and give him a night. He'll probably be (or claim to be) roleblocked but so be it.

Expect me back on your case tomorrow, hb.

So if we talk through the sequence of events:

1. You scan an inactive player as TOWN
2. Option 1 is to keep this information to yourself. This does not expose you as cop. Option 2 is to share this information, but you should be aware that with a doctor dead, you have no one to protect you through to tomorrow.
3. If you go with Option 1, and you see other players putting pressure on the player that you scanned, you get frustrated. But you don't know that that Player is a POWER role, only that they are town. They could be a vanilla. As cop, it wouldn't make sense to out yourself just to save a vanilla.
4. If you go with Option 2, then you must surely know that you are dying tonight and you should be doing everything in your power to make your remaining time worthwhile, and solving the game. So far all you've really done today is... weakly accuse two players who are suspicious of someone who replaced an inactive player, and has basically been inactive themselves.

PunishedBen posted...

What changed your stance completely on this between the end of day 1 and now?

Things have happened in the past 23 hours?

Peace___Frog posted...

The thing with that, Kirby, is that:
1. Lopen and Ben aren't the only ones who have said that about Abacus
2. He himself thought Abacus was scummy, as evidenced by including him on a scum list and then scanning him
3. Scanning Abacus, as town, is a very low-value play. Claiming to scan Abacus, as scum, gives town basically no more information than they already had (and scum knows who is not scum).

Lopen's thought process here is not faulty.

I mean to quote the post specifically referencing the 70%-80% thing.

And I really don't think scanning Abacus was that bad of a play. Do we, as a collective town, gain much from that info? Not really, but I understand the logic behind it.

Imagine if Red got scanned for whatever reason in Dota 2 Mafia. Easy victory! He wouldn't have been able to coast by without doing anything.

I get the logic behind scanning a low-activity/inactive slot because otherwise those people tend to avoid being a topic of discussion at all like how Poppy is only being intermittently brought up despite being ominously silent.

You may have a point about Lopen and Ben not being the only ones who were pushing the MZero inactivity slot. My memory is not that good. But my point is that Hb's hypothesis really isn't that unreasonable. Perhaps I should've explained this better when you and Lopen were both saying Hb was sus, but I really thought y'all were in the minority (and probably still are).

Edit in bold below:

So if we talk through the sequence of events:

1. You scan an inactive player as TOWN
2. Option 1 is to keep this information to yourself. This does not expose you as cop. Option 2 is to share this information, but you should be aware that with a doctor dead, you have no one to protect you through to tomorrow.
3. If you go with Option 1, and you see other players putting pressure on the player that you scanned, you get frustrated. But you don't know that that Player is a POWER role, only that they are town. They could be a vanilla. As cop, it wouldn't make sense to out yourself just to save a vanilla who has contributed effectively nothing, and has not proven their worth to you in any way. Why would you suicide for that player?
4. If you go with Option 2, then you must surely know that you are dying tonight and you should be doing everything in your power to make your remaining time worthwhile, and solving the game. So far all you've really done today is... weakly accuse two players who are suspicious of someone who replaced an inactive player, and has basically been inactive themselves.

Peace___Frog posted...

Things have happened in the past 23 hours?

When I flip town, (or god forbid, scum~), what info are you looking to get out of it?

Kirby321 posted...

What is so difficult to understand?

"Abacus is Town. Lopen and Ben kept suggesting MZero/Abacus as scum because they're inactive. That's easy for scum to fake."

I think that's made far more sense than anything you've put forth at all this game, honestly. You are blowing things way out of proportion, and I'm pretty damn sure you're doing this on purpose. And just to prove a point

##Unvote
##Vote: Lopen

70-80% conviction is much more forceful than what you're saying he's doing

Kirby321 posted...

And I really don't think scanning Abacus was that bad of a play. Do we, as a collective town, gain much from that info? Not really, but I understand the logic behind it.

Imagine if Red got scanned for whatever reason in Dota 2 Mafia. Easy victory! He wouldn't have been able to coast by without doing anything.

I get the logic behind scanning a low-activity/inactive slot because otherwise those people tend to avoid being a topic of discussion at all like how Poppy is only being intermittently brought up despite being ominously silent.

I think this is all very reasonable. The logic makes sense. Sharing the information in this manner does not. See #3 above.
Respectfully,
Peaf

Also I really don't like that HB is suspecting me and Ben specifically. Aside from the counter vote angle it actually is super high utility for HB to be able to jump over to Ben who is getting suspicion because let's be realistic it's unlikely I will actually be the Lynch today. Having been as his other option gives him a good out to Lynch town when it's chaos again late in the day.

Lopen posted...

Also I really don't like that HB is suspecting me and Ben specifically.

Because you're both scummy as fuck lol

No one else puts any merit into this post of HB's?

Hbthebattle posted...

can i put people in your book

I mean I would consider it a very very lucky coincidence if he just happened to say this and then later twist it as a cop hint. The problem is i cant see his reason for saying this if not as a straight up soft claim

Like straight up then hardly said anything about m0 being inactive. I gave it much more play than Ben Ben wasn't really ahead of the game as a whole.

People making bad plays with Town power is a pretty common thing.

Ben hardly said I meant there. Voice 2 text.

Peace___Frog posted...

I think this is all very reasonable. The logic makes sense. Sharing the information in this manner does not. See #3 above.
Respectfully,
Peaf

And your logic makes sense. It's not optimal, sure, but I've learned the hard way that just because a townie doesn't play their role well doesn't necessarily mean they're scum. My first game here, Tidus literally contradicted himself by placing his confirmed town scan at the extreme end of scum tier. He was actually Cop and we lynched him without any hesitation.

Even then, everybody alive has spoken by now and has had a chance to counter Hb, besides Poppy. Hb is uncountered. Everyone kept giving us flak for lynching Tidus in that one game because he was hurr durr uncountered Cop, and I'm genuinely surprised people aren't saying that more in this game about Hb.

Ben Ben not scummy-pon!

PunishedBen posted...

No one else puts any merit into this post of HB's?

I mean I would consider it a very very lucky coincidence if he just happened to say this and then later twist it as a cop hint. The problem is i cant see his reason for saying this if not as a straight up soft claim

That is banter. People like banter.

I don't think that is a bad scan

Scanning one of the most inactive persons is common on Board 8.