Board 8 > YGO Master Duel Mafia Topic 4 - Slyfer no Slyfing

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Lopen
10/14/22 6:09:39 PM
#51:


The scan is not bad I actually agree with that.

Choosing to reveal it now, as an inno scan, is done from a scum mindset, however. Convince me otherwise.

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Peace___Frog
10/14/22 6:09:54 PM
#52:


Han and Kirby - I agree that non-optimal play is a possibility! It's why I backed off and want to give him a night, and see where the chips land.

Scum keeps him alive and roleblocks him is the most likely possibility so we should prepare for it.

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Lopen
10/14/22 6:18:31 PM
#53:


He claims roleblocked what do you do
He claims scum scan tomorrow what do you do

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HanOfTheNekos
10/14/22 6:19:04 PM
#54:


I am also reiterating that a big push towards somebody wanting to look at Hb was him hopping off of Ctes, in what would appear to be saving a Scummate at the end of day. This only works if Ctes is Scum, though.

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Peace___Frog
10/14/22 6:21:33 PM
#55:


He claims roleblocked, then I do what I'm doing today and evaluating the game from an angle where I only know my alignment and that of dead people (presumably, +2 tomorrow).
He claims scum scan, we see what that other person says and evaluate from there (trusting HB until proven wrong).
He claims inno scan, then we evaluate from the remaining players for scum (trusting HB until proven wrong).
He claims scan on player who scum killed over night, presuming they kill someone other than him - HB should get voted out.

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Lopen
10/14/22 6:23:02 PM
#56:


You do know if we lynch town today and lynch someone set up by a faked scum scan tomorrow we almost certainly lose right

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Lopen
10/14/22 6:24:27 PM
#57:


You have to have some guts and doubt a power claim before you're literally forced to sometimes

Benefit of a doubt is earned. Faking a roleclaim should not be all we need to do to earn that benefit.

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Peace___Frog
10/14/22 6:24:33 PM
#58:


Oh right. We'd be at 4-4 in that scenario.

Hmm hmm hmm

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HanOfTheNekos
10/14/22 6:28:36 PM
#59:


If Hb is Town...
If Scum have a RB, he's RB'd or dead.
If Scum don't have a RB, he's dead.

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Lopen
10/14/22 6:31:53 PM
#60:


Keep in mind probably 2 bodies dropping tonight. I do think Corrik probably uses poison night 1.

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Peace___Frog
10/14/22 6:37:32 PM
#61:


Really wish i could ask him, but you're probably right

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Lopen
10/14/22 6:38:37 PM
#62:


Probably Poppy I'm guessing. Good PoE kill but also don't think he's scum so probably do or die tomorrow if we don't get it right.

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HanOfTheNekos
10/14/22 6:38:58 PM
#63:


You expect someone to be poisoned without notifying?

Or do you expect Corrik to have poisoned Scum who are hiding it?

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Lopen
10/14/22 6:41:07 PM
#64:


I'm guessing no notification. Role flip doesn't indicate there would be one.

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Lopen
10/14/22 6:49:02 PM
#65:


Can we at least Force HB to full claim. At the very least. Like come on there's no reason to let him be cute here.

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Kirby321
10/14/22 7:11:53 PM
#66:


I'm tired. I probably could have done better with this ISO, but it is what it is. Overall, my findings seem to indicate that Ctes has mostly just kinda been posting commentary since the start of Day 2. He's got a few people on his town lists, and he's named Ben and Chang as the most suspicious from yesterday's lynch. It's not the most original thought, but it certainly makes more sense than whatever Lopen is cooking up.

Seems like an ordinary Ctes. At the same time, though, I've never seen him as scum IIRC, so the possibility of it being a faade isn't impossible with how relatively low-key his posts kind of are.

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Lopen
10/14/22 7:15:14 PM
#67:


I wish I thought Kirby was scum, I really do

Hb Ctes Kirby BCT would be hilarious as it would be 3 guys Han is arguing are town and one guy he let get away to chase SBell.

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Lopen
10/14/22 7:16:45 PM
#68:


If you're town, Han

Now is the time to stop being the guiding hand and drive a lynch. I've got too many people here treating me like a joke. I can't do it.

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Lopen
10/14/22 7:19:09 PM
#69:


WOOF WOOF! KlLL SCUM, HAN. WOOF!

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Lopen
10/14/22 7:28:16 PM
#70:


Hey Kirby did you ever say why you were gone at the end of the day yesterday.

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Kirby321
10/14/22 7:35:54 PM
#71:


Lopen posted...
Hey Kirby did you ever say why you were gone at the end of the day yesterday.

Not the specifics, but I could've sworn I said something. I can go check. I had office hours that night and promised the students a review session for their exam, so I knew for sure I'd have to peace out before the deadline and thought I mentioned that, albeit it probably got buried under all of the chaos.

Anyway, it's pitiful seeing you trying to summon Han into attack position to no avail, but that at least made me feel motivated and pool together some unofficial votals.

Unofficial Votals
[2] Lopen - Hb, Kirby
[1] Ctes - Han, (Lopen)
[1] Hb - (Peaf), (Ben), Lopen
[1] BCT - Sultan
[1] Sultan - BCT
[0] Han - (Lopen)
[0] Ben - (Kirby)

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Kirby321
10/14/22 7:37:45 PM
#72:


Okay, yes, I did mention it. But I probably could've done a better job of emphasizing my absence.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80195220/968669463

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BlueCrystalTear
10/14/22 7:39:29 PM
#73:


Just caught up and will post thoughts here...

Lopen, Sultan, HB, Ben. That's my read right now.

Lopen is starting to act like scum Lopen again, and he went from saying I was the one he was most convinced of being town to saying I'm scum. What did I even do? This turn makes no sense and he's cackling again.

Sultan has been faking content and going after me needlessly. I have him pegged. If I die, when I flip town, please kill him. He will be proven to have the worst gut on the board... because it's not gut. It's him deliberately pushing a mislynch.

HB is because of what Peaf said. The claim doesn't add up to an even greater extent than I had thought. It makes no sense to claim after just one scan when that scan is Abacus. I don't have anything more to add that wasn't already said.

Ben has been quiet and isn't trying to help solve things. This is unlike him.

That's my current analysis. Peaf and Han most town to me right now.

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Kirby321
10/14/22 7:40:43 PM
#74:


Who hasn't placed down a vote at all today?

Poppy has been MIA
Abacus is town
Chang has said a lot I'm pretty sure but no vote. Same with Ctes

That's everyone who has yet to place down a single vote

Meanwhile Peaf and Ben are the only ones who don't currently have a vote down that voted today.

I might've made a mistake with that list, because Han voting for Ctes is a bit odd. Might've missed an unvote from him somewhere.

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PunishedBen
10/14/22 7:56:20 PM
#75:


##Vote: Chang

Chang my mind

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TheSultanOfSlam
10/14/22 8:20:00 PM
#76:


BlueCrystalTear posted...
Sultan has been faking content and going after me needlessly. I have him pegged. If I die, when I flip town, please kill him. He will be proven to have the worst gut on the board... because it's not gut. It's him deliberately pushing a mislynch.


I am actually mostly moved on im not pushing the lynch activity. If people want to believe that I caught you being scum that is fine.
You're not confirmed town and you keep pushing that agenda that you are.

I'm going to keep you my vote on you for now sure.

We have a long day ahead of us still

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HanOfTheNekos
10/14/22 8:27:42 PM
#77:


Kirby321 posted...
I might've made a mistake with that list, because Han voting for Ctes is a bit odd. Might've missed an unvote from him somewhere.

No mistake.

Chang, Poppy, Ctes is where my mind is orbiting around. And I don't feel good about suspecting Chang, but I need to separate from my emotional state from when he showed up yesterday. And Poppy has some work to do.


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Lopen
10/14/22 8:49:20 PM
#78:


Pathetic votals. Absolutely pathetic.

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Lopen
10/14/22 8:51:58 PM
#79:


PunishedBen posted...
##Vote: Chang

Chang my mind

What's your theory for the end of yesterday. Do you think it was town/town? If so why does the wagon on Sbell materialize out of pretty much nowhere.

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Lopen
10/14/22 8:57:04 PM
#80:


Like this is not how you play mafia

You need pressure to generate content

Someone get ANYONE to -2. Why are so many votes uncast? Why is everyone splitting everything. We have great data from yesterday? You can't all be scum. Hell throw some more votes on me if I have to be the one. Just do SOMETHING.

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Lopen
10/14/22 8:58:15 PM
#81:


Like what on earth is Ben even doing. A vote on Chang with no justification? What are you hoping to accomplish?

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HanOfTheNekos
10/14/22 9:02:05 PM
#82:


Lopen, switch to Ctes.

BCT, Sultan, neither of you is getting lynched today. Take your votes off of each other and put them somewhere else. You're going literally nowhere with that.


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Lopen
10/14/22 9:03:30 PM
#83:


Currently

BCT's vote is worthless
Sultan's vote is worthless
Ben's vote is worthless
Han's vote is worthless

Extremely weak attempts to build cases on any of their vote targets from those 4 today.

Hb is scum. Kirby has probably the best vote in the game because at least it's on someone with a vote and has justification. Too bad Kirby is voting for town because he can't get over the idea that I'm faking crackpot ideas because he doesn't understand what I'm saying (open your eyes, dude, multiple people are saying I'm making sense)

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Lopen
10/14/22 9:04:03 PM
#84:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
Lopen, switch to Ctes.

Great!

##Unvote:
##Vote: Ctes

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HanOfTheNekos
10/14/22 9:05:49 PM
#85:


Ctes's flip gives the most information w/ regards to yesterday.

Ctes, your job is to convince us that it'd be better to lynch someone else.

And yes, we need a few more bodies in here.

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Lopen
10/14/22 9:07:39 PM
#86:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
Ctes's flip gives the most information w/ regards to yesterday.

Ctes, your job is to convince us that it'd be better to lynch someone else.

And yes, we need a few more bodies in here.

Great pro-town thinking! I concur!

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ctesjbuvf
10/14/22 9:10:23 PM
#87:


You two are currently set on that Hb and I have to be scum/scum and absolutely can't be scum/scum. I'm in no way convinced lynching me would make anything clearer for you, it'd just be a waste of a lynch.
Also I'll hage to do my work tomorrow.

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Peace___Frog
10/14/22 9:11:00 PM
#88:


BlueCrystalTear posted...
Lopen is starting to act like scum Lopen again, and he went from saying I was the one he was most convinced of being town to saying I'm scum. What did I even do? This turn makes no sense and he's cackling again.

HB is because of what Peaf said. The claim doesn't add up to an even greater extent than I had thought. It makes no sense to claim after just one scan when that scan is Abacus. I don't have anything more to add that wasn't already said.

That's my current analysis. Peaf and Han most town to me right now.
You... do of course realize that Lopen and I are in agreement with respect to HB, right? What about Lopen is crazy and scummy? You don't get to say anything about yourself in your answer.

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HanOfTheNekos
10/14/22 9:28:00 PM
#89:


ctesjbuvf posted...
You two are currently set on that Hb and I have to be scum/scum and absolutely can't be scum/scum. I'm in no way convinced lynching me would make anything clearer for you, it'd just be a waste of a lynch.
Also I'll hage to do my work tomorrow.

You were literally the opposing lynch yesterday, switched off of at the last moment.

You'd be dead if SBell claimed.

If you're Town, you owe it to SBell to take a spear and get at it.

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Peace___Frog
10/14/22 9:29:07 PM
#90:


ctesjbuvf posted...
You two are currently set on that Hb and I have to be scum/scum and absolutely can't be scum/scum. I'm in no way convinced lynching me would make anything clearer for you, it'd just be a waste of a lynch.
Also I'll hage to do my work tomorrow.
Doesn't Han think that you and HB can't both be scum?

Han - you think ctes lynch gives us the most info because it tells us if it was town/town or town/scum on D1. Correct?

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HanOfTheNekos
10/14/22 9:30:22 PM
#91:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
[7] SBell - (IGCD), (Red), (Poppy), BCT, Poppy, Chang, Han, Peaf, Ctes, Hb
[5] ctes - (Han), (Lopen), (Peaf), Red, Lopen, (Hb), Ben, Sbell, Red

At a glance, my trust in SBell lynch is mostly in BCT, and then circumstantially in Hb for my ISO of him and feeling like Peaf is actually trying to solve the game.

My trust in Ctes lynch is that I think Lopen is Town and Ben is the only question mark, but Ben wanted Chang to be lynched over both of these.

I just think I'm really confused by Ben's placement in this game. That might be the most important factor to figure out.

if Ctes is Scum, then yes, there would be a push to protect him. If he ends up as Town, then the later votes are more likely from Town members as Scum doesn't need to draw attention and try to push votes at end of day between Town/Town. Therefore, Hb, Peaf, Ben less likely Scum.

So if Ctes is Town:
Chang and Poppy look worst.
I think Ben might look worse here? But just because he only looks best if Ctes is Scum.
Lopen looks less good.

If Ctes is Scum:
Ben looks best.
Chang and Poppy don't look too much better than the otherwise.
Hb looks the worst based on just the lynch, but I still don't connect the two as Scummates.
Peaf had SBell on his lynch list already. He was on Ben before, who I think was his number 1, but switched when it was between SBell (who was on his list) and Ctes who he was null on earlier. So Peaf doesn't look as bad.

I feel like lynchwise today, we're revolving around:
Chang
Ctes
Poppy
Ben



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HanOfTheNekos
10/14/22 9:35:57 PM
#92:


Poppy is who I want to see the most right now, though I'm sure that's a common sentiment.

Ben has managed to end up on almost everybody's shortlists... which is usually a sign.

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Peace___Frog
10/14/22 9:52:16 PM
#93:


I want to go down each scenario with you some more, Han.

People who didn't vote for either Sbell or ctes were Corrik, Kirby, Sultan, and Abacus.
Corrik is known town. Abacus has a "cop" scan for his innocence. I feel good about Kirby and Sultan. But in the absence of those impressions, my general idea would be that in a town/town competition at day-end, scum wouldn't care which townie goes (except for a general preference to hit power, sow confusion, and kill a better player).

If Ctes is town, Chang and Poppy (and BCT, in my book) look worse because moving onto a non-vanilla means a bigger likelihood of hitting power and causing chaos. So I agree with you there. Additionally, all three already look bad (BCT the worst of them all, but as previously discussed, is not a lynch for today). I don't follow your Ben or Lopen logics. I think HB actually looks worse here, too, if Ctes is town, for the concepts raised in my prior paragraph.

If Ctes is scum, I don't think Ben necessarily looks good. Sure, he was on Ctes (and wants to claim that he pushed Ctes before Red made it cool). But as Lopen said, that could have been a very early-day ploy for distancing, with zero intent to let things get as far as they did. But I would back off Ben for at least a day in that case (barring other circumstances).
HB could have been confused town as you and I were, or could have been a scummate with the last-second heroic save. No tell either way on HB, from the Ctes flip, based only on the day-end votes.

Finally, totally separate from Ctes - what to do with Abacus. Given that we've had a jack flip, AND we know pot of greed exists in the game, is it outlandish to think that scum have the ability to one-time anti-pot-of-greed? Perhaps this is more tinfoil-hat than Abacus being godfather, but I don't think it is. The only thing giving me pause is why the fuck they'd use it on Abacus.

All that said, I do agree with your lynch pool for today at this point in time.

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HanOfTheNekos
10/14/22 10:03:58 PM
#94:


"Moving onto a non-vanilla" I think doesn't apply because he claimed after their votes.

Ben looks better if Ctes is Scum simply because he was on Ctes and didn't ever move away. I don't recall my logic on Lopen offhand.

What to do with Abacus is probably prod Hb for a more clear claim, and kick Abacus's butt into giving us more attention.

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Lopen
10/14/22 10:14:53 PM
#95:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
What to do with Abacus is probably prod Hb for a more clear claim, and kick Abacus's butt into giving us more attention.

Please

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TheSultanOfSlam
10/14/22 10:19:37 PM
#96:


##unvote:BCT

Okay let go sultan time to play the game harder

[7] SBell - (IGCD), (Red), (Poppy), BCT, Poppy, Chang, Han, Peaf, Ctes, Hb
[5] ctes - (Han), (Lopen), (Peaf), Red, Lopen, (Hb), Ben, Sbell, Red

Okay looking at this Peaf and HB are Late Jumps from Ctes to Sbell.

Hb I'm inclined to believe for now.. iso peaf might be a good thing to do.

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TheSultanOfSlam
10/14/22 10:29:08 PM
#97:


Also thinking who kills Red in this situation

I'm thinking that reads Han he has been known to say if scum and you know Red his town kill him early.

This may Okay not me useful information

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HanOfTheNekos
10/14/22 10:30:41 PM
#98:


Sultan, I don't think I've literally ever said that in my life.

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TheSultanOfSlam
10/14/22 10:31:04 PM
#99:


Ctes being scum is still a possibility

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TheSultanOfSlam
10/14/22 10:34:49 PM
#100:


HanOfTheNekos posted...
Sultan, I don't think I've literally ever said that in my life.
Idk who id be confusing you with no one's names even close to yours...

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