Board 8 > Dota 2 Mafia 2 Topic 6 - Allegedy a Team Game of Mafia

(+) Yeah! (+)

Obellisk posted...

Rule of 3 works.

This is probably an oversimplification. Unless you are dealing with a completely new player rule of 3 is a bit more nuanced than that.

red13n posted...

This is probably an oversimplification. Unless you are dealing with a completely new player rule of 3 is a bit more nuanced than that.

i just mean it works here .

There is too much in kirbys favor to not be part of the scum team at this point.

Obellisk posted...

i just mean it works here .

There is too much in kirbys favor to not be part of the scum team at this point.

I wouldn't say it works. I say we have other information that makes the results of those 3 fairly certain. So the rule doesn't really give us anything.

That's doesn't mean it doesn't work in this situation

This is where I'm at.

Ctes is town
Lopen is town
SBell is town
Ulti is town
MZero is town
Kirby is not town

That leaves Poppy, chang and red.

Poppy has been putting in very good work and a lot of thoughts I can follow. The Corrik thing is possibly something against him. Also the player I know the least.

I need to actually look closer at chang, but I have no clear there. Also Ulti on town makes it more likely chang is scum. I should read that part of Sultan's posts again.

Red is in the game and is my best guess for hammerer due to lack of votes. That's all I got there.

Lopen posted...

Also there's no way I'd play Roshan or scum like this. I'm drawing far too much attention to myself.

lmfao ok

Lopen posted...

Like to me the most damning things against hb were interactions with Sultan and Han. Once I got less convinced Han was scum that made me even less sure of Hb. Then you throw in everyone wanting hb dead and only Mzero really going for pushing it everyone else just being lazy and yeah.

see again this just tells me that you aren't reading because i made a pretty good case that turned out to be right and you literally ignored the entire thing to yammer "derp prove it" over and over at me while claiming ulti and i didn't have good reason to be voting hb

so liek, either you're scum or playing as an asset to scum

Perhaps I should also explain the people I called town, whoch is current guesses and nothing definite except for me. I doubt Lopen slaughters Sultan like that if he's bussing, not out the gate, not that fast. MZero feels like he's trying harder than he did as scum and has been spot on. SBell is the only player I feel like I have data on as both town and scum and he feels more like town SBell to me. I do believe Ulti actually thought SBell as a cop that scanned me town n1. That didn't happen, but SBell is alive. Also I don't think Ulti makes that bodyguard claim as scum to throw shade on Han being alive and then shoot him right after.

Poppy have you told who you've used your ability on?

was poppys ability multi use?

Not sure, he's said.

Also not asking to reveal anything new if not wanting to just wanted to know if it had already been said.

That should be "Not sure he has said"

ctesjbuvf posted...

Poppy have you told who you've used your ability on?

i haven't used it because we killed the roleblocker day 1 so i figured there was no point

Obellisk posted...

was poppys ability multi use?

i would prefer not to answer this

Sorry I was confusing your power poppy. you have claimed an anti roleblocking power right?

Han's thoughts about the game yesterday do line up very well with mine now I've just noticed.

If anyone wants to think Han was not simply shot because he's good.

Obellisk posted...

Sorry I was confusing your power poppy. you have claimed an anti roleblocking power right?

yeah

ctesjbuvf posted...

Han's thoughts about the game yesterday do line up very well with mine now I've just noticed.

If anyone wants to think Han was not simply shot because he's good.

what thoughts are those, exactly?

Red, did you get your dream job Hammerer this game and if so, why so afraid to just open up about it.

PoppyTheNinja posted...

what thoughts are those, exactly?

This was the post.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Probably Town
2 - ctesjbuvf - It's ridiculous that he'd just focus down Lea over Kirby as Scum the whole first day. he made good posts aside from that. For him to be Scum, he had to decide to pocket a vote on Lea the whole day. Possible, not super likely.
8 - MZero - MZero is always Scum. When he's this active and thinking, it implies Town.
5 - htaeD - Landed on Sultan too early.
7 - Lopen - Landed on Sultan too early. For him to be Scum, means that the bus was intentional for awhile.
6 - Kirby321 - Doesn't make sense as Scum. Lea was protecting.
9 - Obellisk - Been thinking the exact same as him all game, aside from him gunning for me at the beginning. Like a classic game where we bite at each other, but I just skipped biting at him.

Town leaning but less so
12 - UltimaterializerX - I liked his content a lot when he returned at end of day yesterday. His actions today feel out of sync with his thoughts at end of previous day though. His ward stuff felt genuine however. Biggest thing against Ulti is that Lea felt like he was Scum, and she died.

Circumstances, combined with enough people thinking he was Scum yesterday(including Lea)
4 - hbthebattle - Lea hard stuck to. Implies she died for this. Also, no fanfare at end of day sort of implies it wasn't necessarily scum vs Town, or that the Scum bus was decided on (very possible!)

Scum hiding while we cannibalize ourselves if Poppy/Hb are Town
1 - changmas - Under the radar
11 - red13n - More under the radar than Chang

Corrik's last post really did kind of imply he visited Poppy
10 - PoppyTheNinja - Corrik vote implicates him.

well, hb was scum, so, like, eh. not that i don't disagree with red as potential scum. need to reread to remind myself of what change has actually done

on rereading han did get into it with lopen toward the later parts of the day but he did still say he was town so who knows

Also I'm not against massclaiming, but I'm also not convinced it's the best move. Which is coming from someone that has kinda wanted to claim the whole game lol.

PoppyTheNinja posted...

well, hb was scum, so, like, eh. not that i don't disagree with red as potential scum. need to reread to remind myself of what change has actually done

on rereading han did get into it with lopen toward the later parts of the day but he did still say he was town so who knows

I mean, scum shooting accepted best players above who made good reads is very common here, so finding that post doesn't really make me more confident in my reads for what it's worth.

15 w/ 3rd Party (So 14 + 1)

3 Scum in 14 = 21.4% (no)
4 Scum in 14 = 28.6% (yes)
5 Scum in 14 = 35.7% (big no)

We still have 2 Scum running around and a 3rd party.

There have been 2 Extra Kills. One of which was possibly self inflicted, the other a Bomb (Day Vig-esque?) before days End. (Was it coincidence that the Hammerer and Bomb occurred at the same time?, but I digress).

9 Alive
2 Scum; 6 Town; 1 3rd Party
Lynch Day 3 Town - 5 / 2 / 1
NK Town - 4 / 2 / 1
Lynch Day 4 Town - 3 / 2 / 1
NK Town - 2 / 2 / 1
Day 5 - Lylo.

It would appear the suspect pool surrounds Ctes, Chang, Lopen, Red - primarily. But I can't shake that nagging feeling that someone so easily chalked off as Town is in fact our 3rd Party. And Ultimately the big question is do we think that the 3rd Party is responsible for any of the kills?

With it looking less and less likely that Kirby is aligned with Sultan and Hb, he's by far my best bet for 3rd party.

Probably no coincidence the explosion and hammer happened at the same time. Hammerer is definitely pre input someway, chang's vote closed the day. I thought overnight that perhaps Hb was a bomb of some sort and Death targeting him killed him but it would seem that is not the case.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Hammerer is definitely pre input someway

You think its a Night Action put in prior to day start.
"Pick a target, if that target gets to -1 they will automatically be hammered by you annonymously".

And the Hammerer happened to pick Sultan Night 0 before the game even started and followed through with HB night 1?

Thats almost as wild as Corrik magically locating Roshan Day 1 and proceeding to choose to NOT kill him but suicide into a target and breadcrumb about it.

That's not what I said at all.

Could be a day action, could be no target in particular. I don't know.

But the second to late vote day 1 was literally four seconds before deadline. Also stop was posted right after chang's vote day 2. It must be pre input in one way or another.

That should read second to last

I did also consider that it's not read bur just someone that needs the lynch to get to -1 to get something. Would likely implying someone on both. Red not having voted just makes more sense.

This is not useful talking though.

TheSultanOfSlam posted... That too. That was not nessisarily what I was talking about more so what poppy has been doing. If anything to reverse it back on Chang... it looks like he is actually the one swinging at low hanging fruit

this comment from topic 2 sticks in my mind. it feels very random for him to attack changmas like that and my first instinct says not distancing given i'd just voiced suspicion of changmas to start this thing off, but at the same time i can't exactly figure what low hanging fruit he's supposed to be going after

changmas posted... no no i agree with you this time. it does feel like something's off for sultan this game. i dunno about fake incoherent though, because I don't believe sultan thinks of himself as incoherent. So i don't think he would try and fake that

this in topic 3 is interesting

changmas posted... is corrik mad because he's town and feeling not listened to (like always) or is he mad because he's scum and he thinks he's doing an amazing job but he thinks the deck is stacked against him

this isn't in relation to flipped scum but my gut take is that a post like this is townie

changmas posted... Barring a compelling reason elsewhere I'm liable to vote HB and test out Mzero's radar this game. He has a pretty good track record for finding scum day 1 and I'm not too hot on him either, though he is often suspected. I feel like he hasn't really come in with an impassioned defense like he did in the previous game (baseball mafia?) so ideally I'd to see him come in and respond before I make a final decision

this is pretty good though. it doesn't feel like a bus? the reasoning of simply wanting to test mzero is essentially not trying to take any credit for himself. and again as much as i've seen people float the idea that scum had resigned to throwing one of sultan/hb under the bus, the fact that they avoided voting each other suggests this was really not the case

changmas posted... i think a vote for lea today is a wasted vote.

i actually kinda liked what hb had to say when he came back in, although i'd like to see a little more from him still. starting to lean sultan on a vote i think tbh

basically fine, similar to my own thinking on sultan/hb at the time - and this is before sultan made that really bad post where he refused to vote hb. it doesn't suggest actions in sync with what we know the mafia were doing so chang more likely town than not based on this

changmas posted... I also had it in my head that Han could not vote at all on Day 1, so if you could point out where he was able to vote that would be helpful.

agree with the general case against HB but Ill let him at least show up and speak for himself before i vote for him. Still not feeling good about Death either.

dunno i could see a scenario where chang sees the momentum against his teammate on day 2 and decides it's inevitable but i don't think it's the most likely

changmas posted... and I can subsequently confirm that you can visit the shop without buying anything and learn the nature of your Aghanim's Shard upgrade, which is what I did, and why I asked that question. Probably worth doing, especially if you have no interest in any of the other shop items at the moment / have a phase without a useful action to perform.

changmas posted... sure did. it was objectively the most useful night action i could have taken N1

this just feels like a really towny night action claim, unprompted so it's not like he's trying to cover things up, says he has nothing useful to do, scum probably does have an action (unless the one stunning people or are the hammerer).

i think chang is probably just town tbh

Bussing 100% happened the first day unless scum is only 3 people and it's red. Sultan and Hb just didn't do it.

PoppyTheNinja posted...

said it last topic but my ability is that i can empower someone which prevents them from being roleblocked. makes me basically useless.

PoppyTheNinja posted...

i haven't used it because we killed the roleblocker day 1 so i figured there was no point

This role does not exist. This is poppy claiming scum strongman right to our face. It is far more situational than Kirby's

PoppyTheNinja posted...

i would prefer not to answer this

Figures there's no point, but would prefer not to answer if it's multi-use. What.

There is no way that scum is only 3.

3 in 15 is 20%
3 in 14 is 21.4%

a 3rd Party added to the game does not make those numbers acceptable in any world.

Obellisk posted...

There is no way that scum is only 3.

100% agree so we conclude bussing happened to some extent but without the lynch candidates.

The "empower" thing is what tripped me up earlier today.

I thought i remembered Poppy's role as a duplicate of one of those Anagham Shards or whatever they are that "empower" the user's role to awaken its true potential.

ctesjbuvf posted...

100% agree so we conclude bussing happened to some extent but without the lynch candidates.

I'm tempted to re-explore Lopen deciding the way to a Scum victory is to bury his roleblocker.

I mean I would think Poppy's ability would agahnim shard someone

He wants someone in town to come to that conclusion so he can say "aha, of course, now my role is useful!" and make his role more credible.

Here's the thing though-- that's just not an ability that makes sense for town to have. And if it is town, he would have already thought about this possibility himself.

Btw anyone else think that Ulti not bodyguarding Han again last night doesn't make sense. I know when I draw Bodyguard or Doc I tend to pick the person I think is most likely to be town/strong and just stick to them until a cop claims or something.

Definitely don't see how Han would have lost any town points after yesterday. If you thought he was town yesterday, don't see why you don't bodyguard him again.

Lopen posted...

Btw anyone else think that Ulti not bodyguarding Han again last night doesn't make sense. I know when I draw Bodyguard or Doc I tend to pick the person I think is most likely to be town/strong and just stick to them until a cop claims or something.

Definitely don't see how Han would have lost any town points after yesterday. If you thought he was town yesterday, don't see why you don't bodyguard him again.

So you are team Town Ulti, but confused why Ulti didn't save an obv. target in your mind?

Or is this shade at Ulti not really being a Town Bodyguard at all?

Have you been paying any attention I've been calling Ulti scum or Roshan since day 1.

So no he's not a bodyguard.

Btw Ulti breadcrumbed changing his target to you SBell because he called you a cop for thinking Ctes is town

Here's the thing though only scum that wants to NK han (while drawing off the doc, because our "BG" has Han alive) feels it necessary to breadcrumb that, and only a fake bodyguard would protect you at all because you're just not a compelling night kill target at the moment (no offense intended)

Ulti seemed to think SBell is cop and that Han not being shot at made him look more scum.

But I'm not gonna go after uncountered protection and it's a tough claim to win this if fake so I'll not focus on Ulti today.

Lopen posted...

This role does not exist. This is poppy claiming scum strongman right to our face. It is far more situational than Kirby's

lol ok

i mean, this is literally not a role i had ever heard of prior to now so i don't know what to tell you. the conclusion i am somehow trueclaiming as a strongman is just absurd, you'e twisting anything possible to try to fit your narrative

Figures there's no point, but would prefer not to answer if it's multi-use. What.

yes i'm not going to out if my role has limited shots or not because that information is not beneficial to claim

PoppyTheNinja posted...

yes i'm not going to out if my role has limited shots or not because that information is not beneficial to claim

How, if you're not using it anyway

Lopen posted...

Btw Ulti breadcrumbed changing his target to you SBell because he called you a cop for thinking Ctes is town

I believe it was just scanner and not specifically cop.

and the. why am I not dead, nor ulti for that matter if i was bgd

ctesjbuvf posted...

Alright Kirby. Let's say that you're town and you have indeed read a post from me that sounds like a softclaim or hint or whatever. Why would you want to state that before having heard something from me? If I'm town you've given scum reason to look for something and possibly get a power role killed. If I'm scum you allow me to go look and possibly just allowed me to not get caught after. I don't get what the plan is if you're town.

I want to make sure you aren't lying. That's it.

You already blatantly hinted at your role, but it got buried beneath other discussion, so nobody else noticed. If you had no intention of revealing your role, then you shouldn't have said anything to begin with.

Do you even know what post I'm referring to?

Kirby321 posted...

I want to make sure you aren't lying. That's it.

Sure, but you could've just not said it before an eventual claim from me then. Giving that information before the claim if I'm town benefits scum more and if I'm scum benefits scum more.

Also, I'll be honest, I have no idea.

Lopen posted...

Btw anyone else think that Ulti not bodyguarding Han again last night doesn't make sense. I know when I draw Bodyguard or Doc I tend to pick the person I think is most likely to be town/strong and just stick to them until a cop claims or something.

Definitely don't see how Han would have lost any town points after yesterday. If you thought he was town yesterday, don't see why you don't bodyguard him again.

Well, Ulti didn't protect Death, the Cop, during Star Wars/Pokmon Mafia, so I've just learned not to question Ulti's targets as Town.

Though, it's worth noting that Ulti claimed to buy a Health Salve yesterday. But the item is useless to anyone not aware of Death's role. Hmm...

Then again, Ulti didn't use the Health Salve to rescue Hb from death, so I guess that's a point in his favor.

basically everything lopen posts is pure unfiltered garbage lmao

i could see going after me being a hopelessly tunneled townie but the fact he's tying to incriminate ulti for not protecting han over someone he thought was an investigative pr is absurd

like this is beyond all logical reasoning at this point

the person he was defending all day yesterday flips scum, and he has not re-evaluated or reconsidered any of his stances whatsoever. there is no consideration that maybe he was on the wrong track and had failed to consider things, he is just actually going back to saying the same old crap like hb flipping scum never happened

if he's town this is the worst town play i've ever seen, and i'm going to assum that's not the case and he's just scum/3rd party at this point