Board 8 > The Russia Ukraine War appears to be continuing

(+) Yeah! (+)

Totally legit referendums are happening today.

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-russia-updates-referendums-to-annex-ukrainian-territory-begin/a-63215168

As a correction to the opening post, Russia has never held all of either Donetsk or the Donbas. They currently hold about half of Donetsk province, meaning that roughly a third of the Donbas is still in Ukrainian hands. Russia did briefly hold all of Luhansk, but no longer. There are no provinces where Russia has full control, though they do hold about 90% of Kherson and Luhansk provinces.

Russia announced mobilization a few days ago. They say partial mobilization, but it seems to just hide its a full one. Supposedly up to a million men are being mobilized. Men of able age are barred from leaving Russia. There has been riots burning recruiting offices in response.

Putin is one of only two people in the whole world I would knowingly wish harm on.

So Russia has announced that it will annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporzhzhia tomorrow afternoon. I have a question about this.

Russia is far from fully controlling any of these provinces. They hold about 95% of Luhansk, 80% of Kherson, and only about half of Donetsk and Zaporzhzhia. There is also a major counterattack underway in Donetsk and Luhansk and Russia are rapidly losing territory. However, it seems that theyre claiming the entire provinces anyway, despite the fact that theres no way the entirety of these regions could have possibly voted in the so-called referendums to begin with. Is that right?

LightningStrikes posted...

So Russia has announced that it will annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporzhzhia tomorrow afternoon. I have a question about this.

Russia is far from fully controlling any of these provinces. They hold about 95% of Luhansk, 80% of Kherson, and only about half of Donetsk and Zaporzhzhia. There is also a major counterattack underway in Donetsk and Luhansk and Russia are rapidly losing territory. However, it seems that theyre claiming the entire provinces anyway, despite the fact that theres no way the entirety of these regions could have possibly voted in the so-called referendums to begin with. Is that right?

Who knows. No one is acknowledging it.

From the sounds of it that is right - which means Putin is now committed to capturing the rest of the regions (going to be extremely difficult if not impossible) and basically pledging to be at war with Ukraine in the very long term. Ultimately the real goal of the sham referendums was internal, just removing the blocks to allow further mobilisation including of people from these regions of Ukraine and martial law. So this tracks with that, its just a way of keeping the conflict going.

It just means they can claim that Russia is under attack. It's just propaganda that justifies more extreme measures.

Putin addresses the nation and declares the 4 regions of Ukraine annexed.

Lyman however is basically encircled and Russians are supposedly trying to flee. Upwards of 6k Russians in the pocket.

Then Ukraine has responded to the annexation announcements with...

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status/1575854017795719168

I always thought that if Putin himself was so scared of NATO, why not join it?
This of course wont happen either.

Russia was talking about joining NATO in the 90s and 2000s. That would have been a fascinating timeline.

Anyway, no way Ukraines application is accepted. NATO do not accept applicants currently at war, see Georgia and Moldova. This will however further humiliate Putin, he was offered Ukraine staying out of NATO at the start of the war and he refused it, now he is facing a Ukraine that is a NATO and EU candidate, as well as Sweden and Finland in NATO. He achieved the opposite of his stated goals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEh8R0HhbNQ

Playing this a lot lately.

Ukraine have entered Lyman.

The USSR also officially applied to join NATO back in the 50s I think.

Yep, they were worried about West Germany remilitarising and giving conquest another go. Interesting stuff.

Aaand Ukraine has now taken Lyman, Russian forces retreated through the encirclement and supposedly took heavy casualties. So much for part of Russia forever, it didnt even last a day.

LightningStrikes posted...

Aaand Ukraine has now taken Lyman, Russian forces retreated through the encirclement and supposedly took heavy casualties. So much for part of Russia forever, it didnt even last a day.

Ukraine will probably retake Crimea, as well as other parts of Russia, and say they "are part of Ukraine forever."

If the troops just reach Moscow, it's over. Putin would surrender at that point and give Ukraine whatever they want. Putin won't want his beloved Kremlin to crumble. And his own people would help them so long as Ukraine only goes after the Red Army and government buildings. They hate Vlad too, and know full well that what he's doing is not a good look for Russia.

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Ukraine will probably retake Crimea, as well as other parts of Russia, and say they "are part of Ukraine forever."

If the troops just reach Moscow, it's over. Putin would surrender at that point and give Ukraine whatever they want. Putin won't want his beloved Kremlin to crumble. And his own people would help them so long as Ukraine only goes after the Red Army and government buildings. They hate Vlad too, and know full well that what he's doing is not a good look for Russia.

What you playing? Risk?

Corrik7 posted...

What you playing? Risk?

Kinda, lol.

The first statement would be Ukraine just throwing shade at Putin. The second paragraph was Putin not wanting Moscow to fall and taking the easy way out... and the Ukrainians having it easy since the Russian people hate Vlad. They might actually get help just so Vlad gets deposed.

So historically the only way Russia has managed to win wars is to be invaded and have the invading forces defeated by the sheer size of Russia and its winter. While it may be tempting, I think the Ukrainian generals are probably not going to risk an advance on Moscow, given what happened to the last two armies (both of which were way stronger than anything Russia could field at the time) that got there.

https://twitter.com/pcgamer/status/1577421836803006466?t=AqqFctqalUuqwf4JOYn9PQ&s=19

RIP

Ukraine still making progress. Taken Lyman and inflicted massive casualties on the Russians.

Ukraine also has attacked the Crimea bridge to Russia, possibly with a van full of explosives and/or suicide bomber. Part of the bridge is in the water now.

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BBC reports another Russian withdrawal

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1590364575257440257

Ukraine have retaken Kherson. Hugely important as it was the only regional capital Russia have taken since invading.

So who won?

Ukraine are winning.

Russia is fortifying at the dnipro River which now separates both sides. I think Russia would love to end the war with that river as their border and the rest of what they took.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1591162458952982528?t=71EFbMYdSRtCQyeUEHyvqQ&s=19

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52

Fucking hell

Oh

fuck

gg

Uh oh

Uplifting

Oh no...

I think this topic needs a little more than just exclamations at this stage
Poland declared Article 4, which is at least a careful escalation step.

edit: Russia is denying firing missiles at all. And people arent sure if its even a russian or a Ukranian missile that hit Poland.
Granted my first assumption is to assume it was Russia still, just an incompetent one.

What on earth would Ukraine have to be firing at to hit Poland? At least Lviv is relatively near Poland so it's conceivable that an attack aimed at Lviv could have overshot.

Or does Russia maintain that Ukraine fired a bunch of missiles at their OWN infrastructure?

Eventually the policy of "deny no matter what" has to start being met with severe repercussions, yes?

Russia is probably going to claim it's a false flag attack from Ukraine to convince NATO to go to war with Russia. That seems unlikely given that Ukraine is clearly winning and will win absent doing something absurdly stupid like attack NATO. It could be a real Russian attack that's designed to simulate a false flag attack - a 2-level deep false flag attack.

I think most likely, it was just an error. Russia doesn't have great accuracy on their missiles.

Also, Russia spent about a month "warning" the world that Ukraine was preparing to drop a nuclear weapon on themselves. They apparently believe we're really really dumb.

The argument for it being a Ukrainian missile is that it is an air defence missile that misfired. Remember, this is just 8km from the border. Whoever is behind it (most likely Russia) this was certainly an accident.

red_sox_777 posted...

Also, Russia spent about a month "warning" the world that Ukraine was preparing to drop a nuclear weapon on themselves. They apparently believe we're really really dumb.

Like most communist dictatorships, Russia believes they are better than everyone else and thus can get away with anything. Do they honestly believe anyone is still buying their shit? Because by denying this misfire was their fault, they're making it look intentional as an act of desperation. If they pull this crap again, it wouldn't surprise me to see NATO get involved more directly. It's Russia that's desperate, not Ukraine, and if that desperation poses a risk to global security...

LightningStrikes posted...

The argument for it being a Ukrainian missile is that it is an air defence missile that misfired.

That seems to be deconfirmed now.

Or not apparently?

It's supposedly a Ukranian air defense missile that hit Poland. Article 4 request revoked.

Man that was a restless night for many I bet.

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BlueCrystalTear posted...

Like most communist dictatorships, Russia believes they are better than everyone else and thus can get away with anything.

This is literally the US as well, is the US a communist dictatorship?